The only way to keep these inflated indexes going is to spend more. The indexes have been artificially propped up for decades now due to an accounting trick. The only way to feed the machine is to keep growing and increase spending.
Enforcing tariffs and carrying a big stick cannot simply be accomplished by being defensive given our track record. After 2008 the United States assumed all of the bad collateralized debt from China (and elsewhere) in order to avoid a complete meltdown/civil war. Now the yield curves are flattening and showing signs of inversion. The only way to prevent a Weimar situation at this point and keep the open air casino going is to over spend and continue to grow. Spending on military is the only logical way to "keep the American people safe," and enforce protectionist strategy.
It is likely we will soon be at war in order to acquire more capital to collateralize our debt and spending. I have no doubt Trump didn't want to sign this bill, but he's actually correct in saying that to keep America safe he had to do it. In order to keep his job he and accomplish the basic aspects of his protectionist platform, the spending had to take place, otherwise everything would free fall regardless of whether a wall is built or not. That's what this spending bill was; a ticket to war.
It's interesting to note that most of the world is trying to get it's shit together, particularly Asia. They are holding their cards close while we are sitting on most of the bad debt. >China just declared it's no longer purchasing US treasuries (this is because they are over leveraged in USD and are looking to diversify now that we are sitting on so much bad debt) >Tariffs rising with China >Equity Markets rolling over >Yield Curve showing signs of inversion >Massive spending bill passed (3.2b to Israel)
Crypto markets may do well in a failing equity market but how would they do in a time of war when rationing and conservation becomes more necessary? Perhaps states like China will force mining to cease in order to preserve coal and computational resources. It would seem that commodities are due for stagnation during the next greed cycle. (2/2)
Thomas Lewis
Checked user
Time to buy land
Connor Johnson
Itt people trying hard to rationalize shitty policy
Brody White
It's not rationalization. Between war now or war later, trump chose war later. It's dogshit legislation but the hope is that we can figure something out with the time that this buys.
Josiah Sullivan
Steel tarifs don't really make economic sense. They make a lot of sense as a preparation for war. The last big US crash was 2001. Anything else interesting happen that year?
Gabriel Phillips
based. this is what milton friedman speaks of in this video when he talks of us being 'alcoholics' to inflation. youtube.com/watch?v=B_nGEj8wIP0
Kayden Turner
How do they make sense as a preparation for war? Genuinely curious.
Jace Bailey
What coin is this?
Jeremiah Bennett
You need a strong domestic steel industry to wage war, so it becomes sensible to encourage that industry even if it hurts the economy as a whole. It's the same reason agriculture is so heavily subsidised almost everywhere -- in times of political or economic trouble you want to control your own food supply.
Angel Jones
Gotcha, thank you.
William Ward
It suck dude. I want my burgerbros to stay safe over there. People get crazy when money gets tight.
Isaac Cruz
>we have to pay off the EU and the Jews to keep America safe >we have all the bad debt and everyone else is doing great go fuck yourself
Ethan Richardson
Will the Trade War and the dipping economy spark Crypto more?
Lincoln Gomez
Everything right now is pointing to a massive war to keep the open air casino turning.
This is not rationalization or coping. I'm analyzing the decision making and making a prediction of what is to come. It is rational however, to assume war is coming given the current priority structure and the way the currency/indexes are collateralized.
I don't understand why you think I had anything to do with this shit or why you think I am supportive of it in any way.
William Reyes
>It is rational however, to assume war is coming given the current priority structure and the way the currency/indexes are collateralized. The steel stuff I feel is straightforward, but what other indicators are you looking at?
Jordan Watson
Brainlet. Do you think it's better to rely on enemy, or even any foreign steel, or domestic steel during a conflict?
Daniel Moore
Sounds like my plan to pay my taxes
Jeremiah Phillips
what the hell is happening in global geopolitics. who is trump declaring war against this time?
Are you expecting the US to need to suddenly field 10 million tanks? This is not WWII, It's the nuclear age. It's either a decades long proxy war churning at a comfy pace, or over in 30 minutes. The military needs no more than 3% of present domestic steel production.
Nolan Reyes
Venezuela?
Jason Martinez
It's cute that you think Trump actually gives a shit about you and isn't just being played as a puppet for the republican deep-state.
I would assume Iran when the time is right, Bolton will have a hand in that I'm sure. I really fucking hope not though, but after the Iran deal, Obama allowed them to create materials needed for Nukes. I'm sure that will be the reasoning whether they have them or not.
Its just deep state, no party affiliation involved
Oliver Sullivan
Looking forward to war. I want chaos
Julian Bennett
>trump is a puppet of the same republican deep state that almost refused to nominate him as the republican candidate at one point and is actively sabotaging his efforts, lead by McCain, Romney, McConnell and Ryan who are supposed to be on his team but are his biggest critics until he put them in their place with constant winning Why are plebbit fags so fucking stupid?
William Richardson
>republican deep-state Are you 12? The people pulling the strings don't adhere to political party dogma. You have a lot to learn about this world, kid.
Andrew Peterson
He’s firing everybody and hiring a bunch of (((them))) and Bolton is the latest and they want war with Iran. It’s coming because the only reason the US is still a superpower is wars. It keeps the casino here going and it lets (((them))) steal more lands.
Chase Perry
Yea I can't gauge wtf is going on in his administration. One day I'm fucking pumped and the next I'm like hope its just 64D underwater backgammon. Lol I think most people elected to him deal with ((them))), granted most people just incorrectly call them the swamp, establishment, or globalists.
Michael Johnson
Nowhere did I claim to support this policy or insinuate that he cares about the people.
You shouldn't make assumptions and try to read what I said at face value.
>Be Chink >Reads Original Chinese vers Xi Jinping in his speech, referred to the fact that China HAD fought bloody wars in the past against aggressors (A clear reference to WWII Japan). Honestly, you alarmists deserve to be buried alive with the Confucianists.
Matthew Barnes
ooooor how about he just wants to be voted in for a second term and the best way to do that is to have military and police on your side. I’m not doubting that there is a lot going on behind the scenes but to put forward the idea trump is increasing budget for muh 4d chess moves is retarded when the easiet answer is always the correct one.
doesnt matter who, a country must fall for us to continue, this has always happened, NK is more likely
Colton Mitchell
And the fact that China chose unlimited terms is not at all unusual. The UK, Italy, Denmark, Luxemburg, Iceland, Netherlands, Norway Venezula, Russia, India, Japan, Singapore, Thailand and Cambodia also have no term limits.
Technically, NZ and Australia also have unlimited terms, just that no leader was ever popular enough to make use of it.
Gabriel King
you have no understanding of the macro economy.
Also, I'm not behind Trump so there is no muh 4d chess being alleged.
He had to spend more to prepare for war. War is necessary to keep the feed the machine. Simple as that. Either way the shit stinks. If he didn't sign it it wouldn't be long before the economy rolls over and we have nothing to spend deficits on in order to create wealth. We have to take wealth from elsewhere if nobody is diversifying into USD anymore.
The recipe for disaster is that interest rates are low (no ammunition to throw at a bear market to make it happy) while equities are rolling over. Yield curves will invert and if the bond market isn't strong in the downturn we could be in real trouble. Lockheed martin will try to save the day to feed wall street by increasing spending, bolstering the budget, and providing us with the tools necessary not only to enforce the protectionist strategy Trump has chosen, but also to enforce the hegemony of the USD worldwide.
Our shit stinks and nobody wants it. The only way to force the issue is to spend money and to go to war.
I can explain this in more detail if you are still having trouble understanding what is going on.
Easton Sanders
It is a toss-up between Iran and NK. So far, NK already 'sued' for peace and are engaged with South Korea for reunification talks. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia/UAE, Israel and Jordan have vested interests in seeing Iran fall.
Logan Robinson
>I can explain this in more detail if you are still having trouble understanding what is going on Lurking
Jeremiah Jackson
Yep, we are in the midst of the Fourth Turning, current cycle is projected to end somewhere around mid-2020s akin to WWII and the American Revolution youtube.com/watch?v=AilTu-_ATdI
And this is exactly why crypto was invented to prevent shit like this from ever happening once it becomes adopted as word currency.
Daniel Rogers
i need it spelled out for me because i'm a brainlet and i like people analyzing global politics and economics for me
Brandon Evans
Canada has no term limit either
muh four year mandate is a uniquely american phenomenon
Charles James
China didn't choose unlimited presidential terms, it was one man who changed the Constitution just like that. The people of China never had a say in that matter.
Elijah Nguyen
USD ceased being collateralized by gold during Nixon. Everybody knows this.
If we look at the world as your currency is stable, it's neither inflating or deflating (and keep in mind, for most of the history of mankind it was really important for your currency to be stable, because if your currency wasn't stable that would lead to massive price inflation and your society wouldn't be able to pay it's bills and the whole damn thing collapses). In Rome, for example, the currency was nothing more than the Romans going into their neighbors, looting their treasuries, sending everything back to Rome, melting it down, stamping the Roman head on it...boom instant currency. If your currency is made of silver, or gold, or whatever it is going to be the value of whatever that is.
The history of the 20th century is the history of the unwinding where you could argue that prior to the 20th century, we lived in a world where your currency's value was your country's stock. If your currency was valuable and you had a lot of reserves or "collateral" to back the currency, then you were a wealthy nation. Democratically elected politicians soon learned that they cannot live in that world because depressions happen. In 1971 the depression almost happened again and Nixon took us off the gold standard - in essence, currency is no longer value.
Now we live in a world where deficits reign, so as a result our economies must grow. If we get in a situation where the economy must contract and a dip is meant to happen, but because the democratically elected governments have backed us into a corner where the economy MUST grow, then we have no choice but to dilute the shit out of our currency in order to make sure that the economy keeps growing.
And how exactly does crypto aim to do that? I don't think you've really thought this through in detail.
Noah Parker
Their entire parliament, not one man voted for it. No different from any other country.
And when is the last time any citizen of any country had a say in parliamentary decisions?
Jacob Perry
Well for starters you won’t have a government to control it holding the citizens in an economic hostage situation by being forced to debase the currency just to survive.
Kevin Reyes
At the very base you could argue that money, especially from a central bank is created (quantitative easing). That money is distributed to the banks who have access to the discount window at the federal reserve. Consumers come in to the bank. The bank is required to keep 1/10 of the amount on the books (fractional reserve banking system). So in essence, a pile of consumer debt (lines of credit, mortgages, car loans, etc.) is created. The current supply is estimated to be 18 trillion, but this doesn't factor the massive amount of derivatives that exist.
If you go back into the 19th century and study the typical boom/bust cycles in the market, they were extremely violent. The underlying principle was this concept called "hard money," where the country's currency was literally your country's stock, and so you don't fuck around with the currency. We transitioned into a society where democratically elected leaders no longer wished to subject the population to violent market swings out of fear of losing their jobs. For example, following the great depression Republicans could not get elected again for over 10 years and learned a hard lesson.
As soon as the dollar was taken off of the gold standard, the indexes became heavily manipulated. The current numbers are completely artificial. The politicians manipulated the system in order to prevent depressions from happening again. In 1980 we began running deficits (spending more money than we have, going into debt), but as long as we make sure the economy grows, the difference of the growth should offset the deficit and it's a zero sum game. George Bush Sr. called this "voodoo economics."
Now we are at a point where the current supply can only take the indexes so far. The interest rates are low and we are already looking topped out. The only thing that may drive the market to new highs is a push to make derivative contracts expire worthless, though there is little that can be done at this point to keep the market happy.
There's nothing stable about crypto though it's already a part of the existing systemic risk. The market still won't be allowed to unwind so long as we operate with these existing fiat systems.
William Morris
>democrats and SJWs trying to use words they don't understand let me guess, the REAL cucks are people who want to put limitations on their wife's sexual behavior
Nicholas Sullivan
Imagine this was 2014 or even 2009, what is different now and then? We could easily have another "melt-up" in the stock market.
Mason Rodriguez
Why even try to explain reality to these guys man, they don't know or understand anything
Jason Diaz
Doesn’t NK and Iran still have control over their central banks? Is that why US wants war with either?
Benjamin Rogers
It’s always the reason we want war. To put our own central bank in or our own puppet government in that will then give us power to put in our own central banks.
Aaron Gray
I’m gonna start taking heroin I think, have a nice day World xx
Cameron Jones
Any financial advice for citizens of the USA or one of its puppet states (canada, australia, britain, etc)?
Parker Hernandez
C O P E O P E
Ethan Moore
The difference is that before 2008 the bad bonds were held by others, especially China. It is very likely that China threatened the United States that if they did not exclusively buy back the bad bonds at face value they would sell them on the open market, which would probably destroy the country.
Now we are sitting on all of the bad debt. Commodities are ending a bull phase...interest rates are too low to be reduced to make the market happy, and it’s already rolling over anyway. The only option is to let the market unwind, increase quantitative easing and open market purchase (though this is only a temporary game of catch up), or wage war.
The nifty thing about war is that you get to be very protectionist while running massive deficits (forcing the economy to grow).
Jack Ramirez
Hunker down. Maybe diversify into a foreign currency with low debt and high assets.
Luis Lewis
What role does Emperor Merkel play in this? Are we a Puppetstate?
Land and silver and a little bit of crypto for the memes during the bad time ahead
Elijah Phillips
Good thread OP Do you consider the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to serve the same purpose of wealth extraction, or were these simply delusional experiments in democracy promotion? Since they were waged prior to the 2008 financial crisis, the US wasn't under the same level of economic stress that it is now. Does Vietnam or the Korean war fit your analytic model too, or does the more conventional explanation that these were undertaken due to an exuberance of the Red Scare suffice?
It's a completely different world from 2001 and 2003. Barring a massive false flag I don't see how we could get involved in any type of war without everyone losing their fucking minds. Globalist, the deep state, the swamp, it's all common vernacular now. Who wants to die for that shit?
Ryan Mitchell
Yo hol up. You're telling me the entire government for decades have been going through with these insanely complicated strategies to prop up the stock market instead of just implementing tariffs that will fix everything and 50% of the brain dead electorate support anyway?
What will be your double think logic in a year when the tariffs done jack shit? Tariffs are just a tax. And when government spending is not based on its income, and will be financed by printing money anyway, more or less taxes don't matter.
As government spending remains the same, any gains / losses from taxes are offset by expansion / contraction of the monetary base. The only thing taxes do are create some winners and losers here and there and make the market overall less efficient if they are implemented poorly. Tariffs are just a tax and in the end will have a very small, but negative impact on the economy.
This is probably the big culling event they’ve been talking about for years. You see they can’t seem to create enough jobs for everyone and they refuse to do UBI so it seems they had rather just kill off 70% of the population in vietnam 2.0 to avoid a socialist uprising.
I hope people are class concious now and don’t fall for it again.
Dylan Cruz
Whoa.. leftists were right all along..
Andrew Campbell
And China derserves an eternal Rape of Nanking from our honorary Aryan Nip brothers.
William Kelly
How long can this keep going?
Henry Russell
We are always right. The only people that vehemently defend capitalism are those that have a stake in it. most people have no stake in it but the elites have gotten very good at convincing the retard masses they do have a stake in it.
Capitalism is fine as long as we are able to go through natural bust cycles (demographic shifts, boomers hitting retirement, etc). The west with its democratically elected leaders has prevented natural busts from occurring by diluting the shit out of the currency.
Benjamin Rivera
>only people who stand to gain defend it >every counterexample is just brainwashing!
Why must you guys always resort to conspiracy theories, you’re not different than /pol/acks, ranting about how the elites use consumerism and marketing etc. Seriously replace “elites” with jews and “capitalism” with “race-mixing” and you realise how your logic is the same:
>emotionally rooted assertion >pre-emptive dismissal of criticism as brainwashing >repeat
Julian Lewis
Op great post and I like all you rebuttal in this thread. I share you thoughts on the infinite growth paradigm, Grow or die that is what we have set ourself up for and you have explained it perfectly.
One thing missing from your analysis is a phenomenon called global dimming. Basically pollution from industrial activity is stopping a lot of global warming. If the economy shuts down the planet will warm a few degreess C with a very short period of time.
I wonder if this factors into there equations. We literally need to keep growing or we are fucked.
Yes, but not exclusively. The key is to develop what is called an Efficient Frontier. Get into gold, crypto, USD, foreign currency with low debt/high assets. Cash is still king. When shit hits the fan people will flock to cash. The issue with the USD is that it is being usurped as the world’s reserve currency and is currently very bearish. There will be a counter trend rally, though gold is already so low it is interesting that it hasn’t already happened yet.
With fractional reserves banks are legally able to print 10 to 1. With 18 trillion now in circulation what happens when the banks really begin lending. It could create up to $180 trillion causing a massive spike in inflation. What did we do the last time this happened? Paul Volcker chief of the fed in 1989 declared the “war on inflation” and hiked rates into double digits immediately crashing the economy. Along comes Reagan running massive deficits and we have the beginning of the boomer growth cycle which culminated with the dotcom bust.
To me leftists for the most part seem to be loud and proud but aren’t very well informed about the macro economy unless they have a specific motivation and wish to manipulate opinion to serve their own purposes.
Christopher Ross
this was posted recently, it's fitting
I'm waiting for a recession, perhaps even a depression. But the uncertainty of fiat during that period worries me. We may see massive inflation across different currencies, especially if QE goes haywire again. But the good thing I guess is that inflation would be slow at first, you can take action if your currency keeps failing. And when things get really bad assets seem almost guaranteed to dump before anything else, thatshould be a good time to diversify away from fiat.
Relating to your pic, it’s interesting to note that as of late consolidation of power into dictatorial forms is occurring all over the world. Xi Jiping (president for life), Putin endlessly elected, Merkel going on 6 terms, Netanyahu, Trump joking about Jiping and suggesting it’s not such a bad idea (there are many other examples these are the biggest that immediately come to mind). The world is naturally consolidating resources and power. If you connect the dots it smells like a war is on the horizon.
Connor Brown
>>Particulate matter from pollution in the atmosphere reflects solar radiation back into space. >>classic industrial psyops though
Dude it is just simple physics. DYOR before sounding retarded.
Logan Scott
Theoretically until we begin to deplete our resources or hit stagnation because further growth is impossible.
Ayden Robinson
Regardless of whether he had to do it or not, likewise we have to counter-signal it.
Lincoln Murphy
>> The world is naturally consolidating resources and power. >>Theoretically until we begin to deplete our resources or hit stagnation because further growth is impossible.
Crude oil peaked in 2005/6 Population growth is exponentially and more people want to live a western, resources intensive lifestyle. I agree user, we are going to war. Tptb have been prepaing for this for a long time.
Nicholas Cruz
Lol what do you mean DYOR? I'm not an environmental scientist, if there was some subtle problem with this idea I wouldn't have the technical tools to realise it.
Hunter Perry
This war thing is the only thing I'm not sure I agree upon with you. Globalism has gone so far that a direct war between developed nations shouldn't really bring net benefit to any the participants in the long run. A war will only happen if the leaders are really fucking dumb. Scarcity, poorness, restlessness, infected relationships and bickering are more likely IMO.
Right, printing and velocity increases could bring tons of currency into circulation, not good. I guess keeping your wealth in different kinds of fiat is still better than holding equities, houses etc and seeing just how long you can play with fire. So, no safe havens really.
In pic related the mean seems to be somewhere under 15k, 5k seems overly bearish. It's painfully obvious how banks stopped the crash on its tracks in 2009, so I'm not sure if anything after that should be included in the mean, it can easily be way lower than 15k.
>>counter-signal it. pull your head out of ass user. Op is talking about a inevitable tsunami coming or way, get your own shit in order. Counter fagging is akin to putting sand bags around your beach front house when a tsunami is coming your way.
You should be more specific. What peaked in 2005/6? Crude oil prices? Crude oil reserves? Crude oil production? Population growth is not exponential, btw. Please don’t repeat talking points make sure you drill down on the actual meaning of what you are saying.
