Anyone else here think this is completely fucking delusional?

Anyone else here think this is completely fucking delusional?

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All great acts of exploration and conquering were completely fucking delusional in the eyes of many or most.

all of elon's pipe dreams came true up to now

Flying also was considered to be a pipe dream.

Pipes were once considered to be a pipe dream. Now everything is pipes.

Dreams were once considered to be a pipe dream but now dreams are pipes

Absolutely. The explorers would need heavy shielding from Jupiter's magnetosphere, making a manned exploration prohibitively costly.

Except even launching one person into space. RATIONALIZE MODE...ENGAGE!

>we could throw 150 tons into space half a century ago
>throwing 400 tons into space now is completely impossible
?!

>inb4 "crazy ideas have worked before" meme
I feel like this is some sort of fallacy. Like if I say that we can land a man on the sun (and survive), because we've acheived seemingly impossible feet's before. That doesn't make it suddenly feasible.

It's probably feasible after we have a self-sustaining colony on Mars.

ITS isn't a completely insane design. It's the biggest rocket ever built but it doesn't really tower over it's predecessor like comparing the Wright Brothers plane to a 747

Is there any scientific reason to assume it is impossible or "seemingly impossible"?

Or does it just seem impossible because we haven't done something like this before?

I'm not shitting on the idea here, I just don't like this argument. It's basically saying "prove it's impossible", which you can't do because you can't prove a negative. That doesn't mean it's possible though, it's just faulty reasoning that shows up way too often in scientific discussions.

But "I'm gonna build a 12 meter diameter rocket" isn't up there with "I'm gonna fly faster than light" or "I'm gonna perfect perpetual motion"

>self-sustaining colony on Mars

This is a meme that needs to die.

A self-sustaining colony on the Moon would be a major step forward in human civilization. Working on a Mars colony is a waste of time and resources...there's nothing there except a passing resemblance to Earth and a shitload of sand. And a gravity well that's surprisingly difficult to get in and out of.

If we're going to adapt to space, we need a foothold that's easy to reach and has plenty of useful resources, not Earth-lite, because MUH PERCIVAL LOWELL AND HIS MARTIAN CIVILIZATION, which is where the whole "romance" of Mars with HG Wells and Edgar Rice Burroughs started.

Based on the original video they posted, I am extremely skeptical. There's just so many things that can go wrong in just an orginary LEO rocket launch. This is not only a LEO rocket launch, it's a fucking interstellar mission to another planet. First off, the booster has to take off and successfully deliver the transport to orbit. Then it has to come back and make a successful landing on the pad, be re-fueled, re-checked to ensure its ready to be launched again (how fucking long could that take? Think about all the things they would have to examine to make sure a second launch won't fail).

I mean even right now they haven't re-launched one of the Falcon 9 boosters yet. They're expecting one to land, be re-fueled and launched again to transfer fuel to the passenger ship. Wouldn't it make more sense to launch the re-fueling ship days / weeks in advance and have that parked in orbit, waiting for the passenger ship to launch? Therefore if shit went wrong, the passenger thing wouldn't be trapped in orbit without fuel.

Then you have to deal with supplies, assuming the ship makes it and lands on Mars. You would have to have supply caches set up and ready in advance of any mission for long-term habitation.

I don't see why he doesn't just build a ship similar to the ISS in space, piece by piece, and then send that to mars loaded with years of supplies, park it in orbit around Mars and have smaller landers deploy from the station in orbit. Most of the crew stays in Orbit and a small amount go down to mars and build the colony. That way if something fucks up, they can leave and go back to the station.

No, but it still does nothing to address the feasibility of the idea. Say why you think it isn't delusional, don't just say "prove it's impossible" in a snarky, round-about way.

Only problem is a question of delta-v
Dnno
Maybe refuel in jupiter orbit before heading to callisto is the way to go?

Or maybe could there be some sort of electromagnetic tethers that can be used to "capture" a craft..

??
If shit doesn't work then there is no going to mars period
If rocketry cannot be made routine, then there is no leaving the earth, period

No shit, I want Musk to succeed, I want the ITS to succeed, I'm just skeptical of how it's actually going to work. Everything has to go right, and there's just so many steps where a minor failure can cause a major setback to the mission.

I really hope he does pull off all the stops and succeeds in his dream though, we need more people like him willing to take major risks like this. Mankind advances when people are willing to take risks.

This isn't the movie, once you are in space nothing is gonna go wrong
Robots aren't going to go rogue and kill people on mars or something.

All their supplies are produced by relatively simple systems that can be proven to work on earth

90% of the challenge is getting to orbit. It's not easier just to launch a smaller rocket more.

EUROPA
HEILIGES LAND

You know, the actual arrangement of the Apollo mission was kinda crazy/retarded too
>launch massive rocket with multipart spaceship
>ship orbits moon
>half of ship breaks off and lands on moon with two dudes
>after they play golf and drive around and piss in a crater the lander then ignites its own rockets and flies back into orbit where it reconnects with the spaceship
>spaceship flies back to Earth, sheds a bunch of its material except for a small capsule with three dudes that then crashes in the ocean

It seems complicated to an unnecessary level with way too many points of failure

it's really not that big a step up.
materials engineering keeps getting better.
computers keep getting better. sensors keep getting better.

I don't see the technical parts being unfeasible. I see the cost being the problem. He has to raise a lot...

Cost is not an issue provided their rockets stop blowing up and the jews stop delaying their permits to launch.

thus why the Russians would have the cosmonaut do a spacewalk to get to his lander... much simpler. But they couldn't figure out how to make pill shaped fuel canisters... which was actually a huge problem. Look at a cross section of the N1 and the SV; you'll see what I mean. less fuel density on the N1 cause of the empty space

Intuitively it seems like there's no reason for a separate lander at all, why not just land the whole damn thing on the moon and let the weight the lander would've taken up carry extra fuel for the moon takeoff instead

Of course I'm missing something since this WAS the original plan for the landing and at some point NASA went "oh fuuuuck this isn't going to work" and squeezed the lander into the design

>Soyuz rocket
pill shaped canisters
What are you talking about

because they don't have the payload for that
and didn't want to do 2 seperate launches

Where is the maths?
Where is the money?
It's a fucking fantasy
Delusional SpaceX shills

the maths are pretty rudimentary, it's the economics that needs work.

SpaceX is effectively a nationalised company, they couldn't exist without government contracts.

Yeah, but a lot of genuinely retarded ideas were also considered retarded in their day, and rightfully so, so, as Carl Sagan quipped, saying "well they laughed at the wright brothers" proves nothing, because they also laughed at Bozo the clown.

It is. Mostly because any sort of manned mission to Mars hasn't happened yet, and SpaceX itself has no lander or transfer vehicle. These will have to be fixed.

In seriousness SpaceX is a company and they can do whatever they want, but if they were smart they would go with a "lean" human-rated transfer vehicle first then scale it up if only as a proof of concept. And again, no lander.

It seems impossible because SpaceX isn't really providing a set path for this. For starters, they're trying to make a human-rated vehicle before a cargo one (at least, based on their release documents). This is stupid from a business standpoint (especially considering the benefit of scale a huge cargo rocket would enjoy, imagine 10 rovers to Mars in one go all from different countries).

>land a man on the sun
That is nonsensical. Float in the sun's atmosphere, maybe but the amount of insulation and general difficulty of the problem begs the question of why? Because you won't be able to leave the shadow of the spaceship, and to do what?

At least you could say mining gasses on the gas giants. Even then you're not landed, you're either in low orbit or floating in a buoyant craft.

Apollo was chosen for several reasons

>Crew module had to be on top for launch escape to work
>Service module was used for translunar course correction, lunar insertion and return to Earth
>LEM was minimal total mass by minimizing the ascent stage dry mass through staging
>landing the reentry/service module just made for a much bigger lander and bigger overall system

Complicated? You're dumb for not understanding the parts
Points of failure? There was redundancy, and yes spaceflight is risky. Apollo 13 returned the crew alive.

Your Mom was once a Pipe Dream, and now I've laid her pipes.

Damn, you roasted the meat right off his bones with that one.

what magic difference does "human rated" and "cargo rated" vehicles have?

Lots and lots of money.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_burn_centers_in_the_United_States

>it's a fucking interstellar mission to another planet
stop posting

Gravity braking using Jovian moons is the way to go.

Blue Origin's New Glenn is a far more grounded design than any of this meme spacex shit.
>everything is just upscaled new shepard tech
>staged combustion engines and methalox, but not retardedly insane chamber pressure or 4 dozen engines on one stage
>high-energy upper stage
>2/3 of Saturn V capability, making moon missions viable compared to the falcon "not enough" heavy
>engine full scale tests next year, production facility and pad already being built
>realistic goal of 2020 operational date
I am a #BezosMissile now.
Muskfags have become extremely delusional in the last few months. When I go to space in the near future, it will be on a Blue Origin rocket (i.e. one that doesn't explode).

Yeah good meme mars man, look how small the people are compared to that rocket. We won't have spaceships that big for at least another 200 years.

Do you losers actually think this will happen in the next 10 years? we can't even get to the moon anymore with all the meme regulations these days.

Which means the clown was succesful!

The only thing stopping is money though. The is absolutely no reason why we could not build a spaceship that size today.

With the right funding, no.

Though I have my doubts. Not just about the rocket but about getting people to Mars in 2025, or even before 2035.

There are so many things we don't know. Even if everyone understands the risks involved even a single death would be a PR disaster canning the whole Mars dream for another 50 years or more. Only 1/3 of the missions to Mars have ever succeed. We still have problems landing fucking drones.

And even if he gets his rocket ready by 2025 there are so many other technologies not ready yet. Musk just said he's gonna build a taxi service to Mars by 2025. But he's not working on how to keep them alive, he's just kinda hoping other people will work on it.

One of them is gonna be energy requirements. We need energy for heat, making oxygen, making fuel, lights, science, growing plants, vehicles, and a hundred other things. The biggest limiting factor will we electricity.

We have no direct access to fossils fuels and solar panels are unreliable due to Mars having sandstorm seasons.

Nuclear would be the best option if we can get the hippies to shut up. Though that would still make us reliant on Earth for fissile materials. Not sure what the current status is on mini sized nuclear reactors.

Then there is space radiation. Musk claims the cosmic radiation received over the trip won't be enough to cause any noticable health risks. But a single solar flare could still insta kill everyone inside and fry onboard controls. We need a solar weather forecast and a bunker on the spacecraft.

If we want to go beyond Mars we need better protection.

Also the radiation on Europa would kill you within 2 hours.

Space dildo

Musk's aim is to fucking prod the public, governments and corporations yo give him money to do the research.

Big statements and shit is all marketing. We may not be able to manage it yet, but drumming up investment is what he is good at.... That's the point.

Get the money in, then buy cocaine for your engineers to work with. Then land on europa.

Duh

This guy gets it.

The biggest hindrance to space exploration right now is that nobody is paying the bill. The private market isn't going to do it, the first investment step is wayyy to big so they'll never be able to afford it.

So, what you have to do is to drum up public interest in space exploration. With public interest comes government interest, because the government wants a happy public. With government interest comes the sort of investment capacity that enables space exploration.

Ya'll know that when the government says "we want to privatize this sector" it actually means "we'll let this sector die, but the negative outlash if we said so will affect us next election so instead we'll pretend there's companies out there that grow money on trees"

>looks like a dildo

Elon...

I fucking love that meme.
The Wright bros were part of a community of people who were all trying to fly. They knew it would happen eventually, the only relevant question was who would get there first.
They weren't engaged in an effort to prove some naysayers wrong, they were part of a technological race where somebody would beat them to it if they didn't run fast enough.

>Fluid dynamics on something that big
>Rudimentary
I've never seen such delusion in my life, all you muskfags ever do is handwave every problem away with "it can be solved"

woaw you close minded academic, don't you know maths are useless and real world problems are always simple :^)

I have never read about Blue Origin before and wow they're so much less tinfoil than this SpaceX bullshit. And none of their rockets have blown up either!

Tbqh senpai, i solved navier stokes when i was 3, but lost it in a house fire.

We haven't been back to the Moon in over 30 years, user.

But yeah, next week the stars! lol

Hi thunderf00t.

This isn't "solar roadways" or anything scientifically impossible. It's like going to Mars, but a little longer of a trip. Everyone on the shuttle will stilll be alive by the time they get there, and likely still be alive by the time they get back.

>i-i-t's j-just like going to Mars
Oh, you mean that other pesky lil' thing no one's ever done either?

lol, let me know when that changes! I'll wait.

But we have. Just not humans. The rocket science behind it stays the same.

>But we have.
>Just not humans.
It's cute how you'd make a claim with one sentence and the contradict the same claim in the next sentence.

lol yeah, you're not dumb or anything.

Veeky Forums, tell me you wouldn't put your life at risk, even if the chances of not exploding in the first minute was 40%, just to see as in the picture, and walk out, and look what is under the ice crust. Because I know I would.

If you want to see something dumb and ugly you could always look at a mirror.

Ha ha, jokes on you. I'm currently traveling at the speed of light.

Do you have braindamage?
All technology to send and keep people alive on Mars already exists. All we need to do is manufacture it. And yes it's gonna be expensive and no this wont turn a profit

>You, circa 1967
>Hurr durr Neil Armstrong is impossibru cuz we neva eva eva put men on de moon b4 lol

>You, circa 1781
>Hurr Durr hot air balloons r impossibru cuz man can't fly lol he neva has b4

>You, 4300 BC
Hurr durr boats can't work man's neva stayed above the water's surface b4 lololol

>You, circa 15,000 BC
>Hurr Durr man no can make big red magic flame, man no eva has b4 loooool jus stay in cold cave where safe proven is

>ITT: americucks who believes the wright brothers were the first to fly.

They had to use a slingshot to take off, retards. Based Santos Dumont was the first one to REALLY fly, with no need to throw himself in the air.

>You now
>hurr durr memes

>claims sending a man to to Mars is almost the same as sending a robot
>then asks if I have "braindamage" (sic)
Not nearly as much as you, apparently. But do continue to dance for me, monkey. I deserve to be entertained.

Are you a woman? Your logic and ability to rationally process information is severely disabled.

you missed one of your meme arrows genius

>Are you a woman?
lol, now you're trying to hit on me? Is being dumb really that lonely?

The sending part is. All that different is that you need to bring a bigger rocket because of all the life support you need to bring.

Ok I'll give you this one. No one has ever done a complete propulsive landing on Mars. But guess who's gonna do just that in 2018.

We have experience keeping people alive in hostile places as well.

The specs are different, the technology isn't.

>rockets are phallic lol
How old are you?

That's like saying since chimps are 98% human, going a little further and having a human is impossible. It's just a 2% difference - the outcome is extraordinarily different, but the blueprint is 98% identical.

Same with putting men on the red planet and Europa.

Have you ever once realized that science is about taking risks and devoting your life to further knowledge? That things have to be tested before they can be proven?

Why does the scientific method irk you so? Why are you against innovation? Do you want humans to die in their cradle, never once thinking of leaving because it's unproven?

If so, your life is completely worthless and you are nothing but a walking hive of mindless bacteria.

I know it's killing me inside since it would have made a nice screencap otherwise

There is nothing that physically prevents OP from happening, it's only a matter of us being able to do get there.

No, I have no interest in women. I'm merely remarking on how similar your brain patterns are to women. Illogical, irrational, unable to create or comprehend the creation of anything scientific.

>All that different is that you need to bring a bigger rocket because of all the life support you need to bring.
Yeah, that's all that different. lmao
>The specs are different, the technology isn't.
Yeah, the technology needed to send a man to Mars isn't any different than the technology need to send a robot. The technology is *literally* exactly the same.

...and that's enough of my time wasted on you.

Enjoy my last reply, dummy.

A colony on the moon was originally going to be built to help with the mars colonization effort but then Obama came along.

>I have no interest in women
captain obvious over here

You keep saying it isn't. But you've never actually provided any examples.

A colony on the moon wouldn't even need to be completely self sustaining.

But if the Earth goes bad you'd ve glad you chose mars and not the moon.

I should share your comment with my researcher wife.

Wow what a fucking retard. You're being willingly blind at this point because you can't handle the fact that actual scientists are far more intelligent than you are. Did you even pass grade school? What was your GPA?


Of course you have to make modifications to the design to meet the specifications, but the technology is already very much existant. It's essentially taking the science behind a car and expanding upon it to create an 18-wheeler. It doesn't violate any scientific laws, it's a natural progression of innovation.

How are you so purposefully stupid?

The other necessary part of travelling in space is going FAST, because you need to reuse your expensive hardware asap.
So getting to Saturn is easy because you can aerobrake on titan
But getting to Jupiter moons is very hard

HAHAHAHA YOU FAGS

You've all been taken on my epic ruse cruise, boldly being trolled where no Veeky Forumsfi fag has never been trolled bedorw. Holy fucking shit, did you assholes actually think I was that retarded? You all fell for it, but hey, you're just not as intelligent as me :^^^^^^) Praise Musk, of course.

>land on europa
pls no more refugees

ITT: OP got spooked by 2010: A Space Odyssey and is scared shitless of what monolith space baby will do to humans if we disobey

Musk is doing all this hoping some new technologies will emerge that he can slap his name brand on and make a ton of money with, and he's hoping to do it on the taxpayers dime. That's his "genius". He has no intention on sending men to Mars or anywhere else. Right now he's trying to elevate his name into some sort of Steve Jobs strata of personality cult with all these bullshit clickbait headlines that all the simpletons eat up like candy.

This guy is the tech equivalent of a slimy used car salesman, nothing more. He'll fail miserably in the next 5-10 years and become the laughing stock he was always destined to be in history.

Sceencap this.

/3 of Saturn V capability
?
no where close, it's maybe 70 tons in expendable
which will turn into 45 in reuse mode

>muh radiation
stfu idiot

>We still have problems landing fucking drones.
Who is "we"? The italians?

>"just scale up bro!"

Veeky Forums elons right her beside me crying about all the mean and hurtful things that were said about him in this thread. you guys can be real assholes sometimes you know that? not cool

here u go friend

There's actually a lot of merit to the idea that a Mars colony could actually be self-sustaining. Mars has had a complex geological and hydrological history like Earth, allowing for the (probable) formation of ores that would enable complex civilization to exist, alongside soil composition that would nearly support Earth plants. Additionally, Mars' atmosphere - while not at all Earth-like - does somewhat regulate its climate and radiation flux.

The Moon lacks all of that. Useless regolith, no shielding beyond dirt to block stellar radiation, enormous temperature swings (+123 C to -153 C) - none of these things make long-term habitation pleasant. At the least, any colony would be heavily dependent on Earth for resupply.

You do make a good point that we could recover from disaster on a Moon base faster than a Mars one. That's a hard engineering / logistical challenge for Mars, no doubt.

no bully

Pls now kill yourself.

...

>not recognizing jokes
autist detected