Why do people think that 2020s is a realistic goal for this?

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Technology in general is slowing down. The 2020s will see nothing new.

>Technology in general is slowing down.
lmao no

I hear a lot of older people say this. I even saw a TED talk with a debate between someone who said that Baby Boomers already accomplished everything of interest and now the next generations are just making apps.

that's objectively true though

That actually sounds sadly accurate.

That's a very superficial understanding of progress.

Actually, I think baby boomers are kind of dumb to believe that as they enjoy all the fruits of the next generation(s) labor, particularly in terms of information and medicine.

Anyway, I found the talk. Here is the debate for those that are interested,

youtube.com/watch?v=ofWK5WglgiI

It's geared more towards future work.

>skipped around
>played around the middle of the video

>"We not only need to legalize illegal immigrants, we need to let people in when they wa-" *CLICK*

Yeah I'm not watching that shit.

The largest rocket ever made only took seven years from drawing board to first launch.

>45 billion dollars

That made me laugh. There are 2 people debating. You probably overheard the one that you disagreed with.

The video is medium interesting. They both had some good points.

>1960s technology
Anyway, $6.4 billion ($42 b. in 2017 dollars) was the cost of the whole program, including 13 launches.

SpaceX says they're going to spend $10 billion developing ITS. Half a century of technological progress, plus the difference between private industry vs. gov't project.

the problem with space travel is not technology as we had the capacity to easily go to Mars in 1980 but the Budget.

Larger problem in colonizing Mars than simply getting there is the human factor. We have no idea what happens to human mind after spending so much time in an isolated community so far away from home (just the explorers of the North Pole had psychological problems, now imagine being on a completely different planet). We also have only a slight idea of what medical conditions will living on Mars cause, or how to solve them using local resources. Third problem I know about is the possibility, that Mars soil may be detrimental to human thyroid. It's full of perchlorates that inhibit its function to some degree. On the other hand, they could be used to get oxygen.

In order to send people to Mars, we would have to know EVERYTHING about their condition first and plan in advance for all possibilities. But there's kinds of medicine being developed for that.

And last of all, just imagine when people on Mars start reproducing. Would their children and the children of their children be "human"? They wouldn't have what every human in history had - connection to Earth. They would be deattached (to some degree at least) from our common culture, history, values...

Well, the 2020s is an entire decade. I would be incredibly surprised if they met their current projections of the early 2020s. More likely, they should be aiming for the late 2020s / early 2030s.

The real issue is the lack of market forces.

If sending people to space cures cancer then stuff like this would have been made years ago and cost effectively.

In the grand scheme of things space exploration is just not that important or interesting for the human society now.

The fact that two of the richest men in the world have a huge hardon for it helps though

Blah blah blah pseudo psychology science NYAAAAH!

If you were born on mars you wouldn't even be able to return to earth because the gravity would be too high for your body.
But my stance on most of these problems is to fuck it. Let the lifespan on mars be 50 years, if get the basics going a mars colony can quickly expand on its own.

These are things that are really being researched as a prelude to getting people to Mars

Why are you shitting on him? He has a point.

I think Musk has the wrong approach, he wants to get there and get there fast, and I do appreciate that there's someone with the capital to fund this type of venture and willing to take that risk, but there's way too many variables with setting up a colony on mars.

For example, we don't understand what the long term impacts of a low gravity environment like Mars will have on human health and development. Not to mention the complexities of just setting up a colony there in the first place, it won't be able to survive on its own, and people would essentially be forced to live underground, or in gigantic sealed domes to protect them from the climate and radiation since Mars has no magnetic field.

>just the explorers of the North Pole had psychological problems
The ones that had lead poisoning dementia from the early version of canned food? The ones that got vitamin deficiencies and lost toes to frostbite?

I don't think people will go crazy exploring Mars, unless things go badly wrong. They should be physically comfortable and have almost limitless entertainment libraries to escape into, with regular news and greetings from home, as well as awareness that they've got a place in the history books.

Some of us are old enough to remember when the same goal was set to be completed in the late 80's.

By this logic, every new car Toyota develops should take 10,000 years, because they have to invent fire, the wheel, and the combustion engine again.

It's not really the rocket itself that I'm concerned about, we know we can make fucking huge ass rockets if we want to.

It's all of the other factors, getting such a large crew that is psychologically stable, getting them to be able to not get cabin fever in the months long journey to Mars, and getting them to survive on a hostile and harsh planet where it's very easy to die accidentally. There's so many things, like the shelters they will be living in for example, that need to be tested and perfected so that nothing goes wrong. There going to need supply caches on mars already when they get there too, you can't send everything they need to survive for a long period on one rocket.

They'll go crazy because they are too far away from Gaia's spirit.

You are forgetting one important thing.
There are humans who are willing to risk their life even if the chances are >50% that they will die. They all already know for certain that they will never come back anyway.

There won't be any 100% safety ever, unless some people go up there and most likely die first. The data from that will get the next trip much closer to 100% safety and might even leave some stuff to salvage on the planet.

there's no point in sending humans to Mars.

I will remind you of that when we have Mars-Gene modified qt3.14 gfs for everyone for free.

Complete bullshit.
The low hanging fruits are mostly gone, but the tree is still full.

I'm expecting some great shit out of material science, robotics and pharmaceutics in the coming decades.

Well, it was mostly the golden generation really.

checked

Why do you think it would take decades to produce 50 engines(when they make like 100+ a year already), and some big tubes of carbon fiber

They learned their lesson with COPV tanks, thats what caused 2 failures, they won't be doing that shit anymore.

Should be just fine

> forced to live underground, or in gigantic sealed domes to protect them
it's likely going to be igloos, actually.

I think he might get diverted into lunar colonization & bringing near earth objects back to earth orbit.

You can do hundreds of trips to the moon in the same amount of time as one trip to mars.

the US has thousands of people working and living in subs for months at a time
The idea that you go fucking insane in a small area is nonsense

I always thought the moon made more sense due to proximity to earth, ease of communication and as a jumping point to the rest of the solar system. Launching rockets from the Moon is cake compared to launching them from Earth, set up a lunar base that can launch missions deeper into the Universe much easier. The moon has water supplies, and plenty of craters and whatnot that are shielded from radiation.

we waste millions of tax dollars for idiots to kill goat herders for the sake of corporations and we can't put humans on a spacecraft for one year because they will supposedly go crazy?

fucking give them a drug specifically designed to counteract that isolation induced crazyness or something

And what happens when they run out?

Its kind of true though, most of our breakthroughs have been pretty much virtual, and we've been stuck using slightly upgraded versions of tech we invented 3 - 4 decades ago.

And consumer-level technology has more-or less hit its plateau about a decade ago, as in you can use a mid-level 10 year old laptop with todays software just fine and loss in general usability.

>muh games and graphix
Even in that, we're making software we could've just done last gen.

probably because it is.

complete opposite actually, we're about to see an enormous advance.