Did you fall for the basic income meme? Do you actually think AI and automation will progress so far that we'll be able to let humans do whatever they want?
If humans have nothing to do and have no competition then they become mentally and physically weak. It's a shit societal structure that allows all problems to be solves like that. Humanity must struggle for eternity or it will regress
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>Do you actually think AI and automation will progress so far that we'll be able to let humans do whatever they want?
do you not know what the word 'basic' in 'basic income' means brainlet?
People always compete against themselves, if everyone is on UBI, they will compete in something else just so they can be more superior than others.
People will still train physically and mentally just for the sake of it, even if not then who fucking cares, strength comes from need, if there are no needs then it doesnt matter we are all weak and only live to shitpost on the Internet.
It's sad how many people think UBI can actually work. Granted the vast majority are college students and NEETs desperately hoping for gibmedats but still, everyone should have some knowledge of basic economics. Money itself is worthless, literally. All that matters is the shit you can buy with money, and it's finite. Giving everyone money doesn't work because nobody wants money, they want the things you can buy with money, and the system will always reach an equilibrium.
People need to produce things of value, that is what makes money worth what it is, because it's tied to value production. If you have a whole caste of people creating no value then the money they have ceases to be worth anything at all
It will matter when everybody is a miserable psychological wreck
>Automated companies get heavily taxed
>That money goes as UBI
>People buys shit with UBIbux
Theres no reason why this wouldnt work, the circular flow of economy closes just as now. In fact, its the only possible way, in a world where technology have automated every production process, people would have no job and then no money to buy anything so companies go broke and so on
Except what people want are the things money can buy and if you hand out large quantities of money for nothing then there will be an increase in the prices of goods that people are spending that money on. You'll just create a feedback loop where money gets aggressively funneled back into the coffers of large companies and goods get priced out of reach of UBI only people anyway. It's not a solution. UBI by definition cannot ever be an amount of money people can live on because the things people want will end up being priced out of reach due to the surge in demand.
What do you think a fair rate of taxation would be on companies that automate? If it's anything over 40% you're retarded.
sport and arts are competitions which machines are not able to take away from us.
sports because a machine match would be completely predictable
arts because winning is subjective
In a massively automated world basic income would just be a pittance given out by the extremely wealthy to ensure the current capitalistic system continues because that is preferable to a more equitable distribution of wealth.
>UBI by definition cannot ever be an amount of money people can live on because the things people want will end up being priced out of reach due to the surge in demand.
What surge in demand? Do you think poor people aren't buying food?
Anything you'd buy on basic income is already mostly being bought; it's not intended to give you a cushy middle class life with a car and a 4k TV and two dogs.
Probably the only thing you could argue would see a real boost in demand is apartments, because people who were previously living in slums or subsidized housing would now be able to afford a normal monthly rent
youtube.com
>tfw humanity becomes inferior ai.
>Anything you'd buy on basic income is already mostly being bought
Then why do we need it if it's not going to let the unemployed do anything they can't do currently?
You don't think there's value in things which can only be created by humans? Fiction? Science? Great cooking? Service? You think people won't want to earn more money to buy these things just because they're given enough money to not have to starve or freeze to death?
Right now, air and water, two things that are necessary but not sufficient for survival, are free. If they weren't, would you be arguing that the economy would be ruined if they were made free? UBI is just saying food and shelter should be free, too. That doesn't stop the need for humans to produce value.
Food and shelter are already subsidized for the poor in most first world countries.
the US has ~140 state and federal welfare programs.
giving out money would literally be cheaper than the system we currently have.
UBI is a libertarian compromise where we disintegrate the welfare trap by just giving welfare to everyone by default.
if we liquidated all those programs and brought them under a single pay out entity (ideally the IRS), we could give every 18 year old citizen ~10k$ a year.
The biggest reason is that for a massive amount of unemployed housing is not something they can do currently, at least not reliably. Especially in a culture where nesting with your parents indefinitely (or even into your 20s at all) is frowned upon.
It's debatable whether basic income would fix this or not because many places, especially big cities, are already short living space, but it would likely help in smaller cities that are suffering from the manufacturing decline.
The other point is that it would simplify the welfare system greatly because you can scratch dozens of pointless welfare bureaucracies that waste thousands of hours and millions upon millions of dollars and just pay people a little more than you're giving them anyway.
Not sufficiently, unless you're a black woman with 15 kids. Welfare for 1 guy in Canada is $600; that's not livable anywhere unless you're lucky enough to have family/friends that will help you.
>Especially in a culture where nesting with your parents indefinitely (or even into your 20s at all) is frowned upon.
This will change pretty quick if economic pressure forces it.
>basic income
is basically rape
fight me
Space exploration is hard, one might even call it a struggle. One of many things that could keep humans busy while driving progress.
As somebody who is mostly a neet who has dedicated his life to arts, I'm going to say you're wrong.
I get so much fulfillment out of life not suffering. Other people should get to live as I live, not having to be a wagecuck to survive.
>The other point is that it would simplify the welfare system greatly because you can scratch dozens of pointless welfare bureaucracies that waste thousands of hours and millions upon millions of dollars and just pay people a little more than you're giving them anyway.
To give every single person over the age of 18 in the US $10,000 a year it would cost over 2 trillion dollars. You're talking about adding trillions of dollars to the budget to save 0.1% of that in administrative costs. It doesn't make sense in the slightest.
>basic income
This shit is real? I thought it was just on The Expanse
why is this on sci
Fairly soon we will be in a situation where there quite simply won't be enough jobs for 75% of the population, so we either incorporate some basic income system, have the government give people pointless jobs or just let them starve.
If you don't want that situation you need to seriously limit what tasks are allowed to be automated.
>If humans have nothing to do and have no competition then they become mentally and physically weak
They will compete in surrogate activities
UBI is good for more than countering automation, it would be a superior solution than having a welfare system even today.
UBI doesn't increase the money people get, it diversifies the sources of income so that temporary stoppages of one are less disruptive.
People with jobs would receive the UBI the same as everyone else, but increased taxes would mean they end up making about the same in the end. People with entry level jobs would simply receive lower wages from their employer, under UBI minimum wage would stop being a thing. Your entry level jobs would be essentially internships paid by ubi and possibly small wages to make people compete over getting certain jobs.
The poor already get welfare, but it encourages simply learning and playing the welfare system.
UBI is about streamlining and diversifying, not adding any more effective income than people already have overal.
>the state
>every streamlining itself or getting rid of bureaucratic nonsense
It's literally impossible. Every state is destined to become a bloated mess. It's like entropy but with bean counters.
Well then no matter what we do we will be screwed in the end regardless. Lets try this fancy new idea in the mean time.
The best way to do it is to just exploit what it is. Its been called a reverse tax before, so have it handled in the same system as taxes are collected. That will ensure the state at least is expedient and somewhat efficient and getting it done, since they arent going to slack on taxing people.
This 'fancy new idea' is only going to end up letting niggers waste billions of dollars on stupid shit and end up asking for more handouts when they squander their stipend. You know it, I know it, everybody knows it.
For people currently on welfare, there should be zero difference. The UBI just becomes the welfare they were already receiving. Only now there is no way to game the system, no way to play it. They already have it. The only way to try and 'scam' more money for yourself, is to figure out a way to 'legitimately' scam more money from the economy.
Thats the point of UBI. It turns the vision of the impoverished outwards. They are no longer in the cradle of welfare, they are standing on the plush carpet floor of UBI
UBI is a welfare state on a larger scale. That's it. Robbing from the most productive sectors of your society to give to the most useless is not a good strategy for long term success.
>If humans have nothing to do and have no competition then they become mentally and physically weak
HOW
CAN
YOU
KNOW
THIS
It has never happened before in all of human history. You can't possibly claim to know this.
Look up the word atrophy
Your argument only works if you make the same argument vs the current system as well, since i just got done saying nobody is going to be getting any more money than they already are capable of.
Look at what happens to children of the very wealthy.
While they have a huge advantage, they typically squander what they have.
>tfw you hate communism but it's impossible for things to continue as they have due to the obvious and overwhelming progress of automation technology
We take self-driving cars for granted to an amazing degree. They were completely out of public consciousness just 10 years ago, and now they're on average superior to human drivers in many ways. That's INSANE in terms of a technology like this approaching maturity. If you'd asked me when they'd exist in 2007 I'd have probably said "in 20 or 30 years,maybe".
And that's the death-knell of millions of jobs-if you run a major long-haul trucking operation, the cost of updating your fleet with all the cameras and computers and the maintenance of them is going to get paid off very quickly by the whole zero salary thing, not to mention the potential for much cheaper insurance rates. And that's just one small facet of what's starting to happen. Putting an extra tax on this kind of thing that doesn't make it financially burdensome to do over keeping people is not just reasonable,it's necessary.
Why are we obligated to keep handing over resources to the most unproductive people in our society simply so they can continue to exist and consume? Wouldn't we...just be better off without them anyway?
How come mommy and daddy send you to school everyday instead of leaving you to your own devices? Not smart enough to educate yourself or what?
Its true, but he fails to account for the fact that humans with free time will invent things for themselves to do.
So basically his argument is bullshit.
The consequences of this will be too far-reaching for anybody to be able to predict what will actually happen. If it fails it fails and we'll go back to what was before. Virtually all knowledge comes from trial and error. Even when you fail you learn.
Most people are stupid, that goes for those born into money as well.
The point of UBI is to give everyone the same security as said children by ensuring they can try something, and fail, with out it financially ruining them. The few people with the talent for it will make something innovative with the opportunity.
Because the political fallout of letting millions of people lose their jobs and possibly starve would knock whatever party supported it out of power and probably so sour people on automation that they'd make it illegal.
water isn't free wtf are you talking about
No because if you depopulate fewer jobs will now be required, so you depopulate again, and fewer jobs are now required, etc. Eventually you go extinct.
despite being expensive the welfare programs work as a barrier, people may not want to put up with all the bureaucracy to get their gibsmedat and choose to work instead, people may think it's humiliating so they try to find a real job instead, now if you just grant them money out of the blue production will plummet, employment costs will skyrocket, so will the price of goods, and the system will become unsustainable very fast (i.e. the previously established "basic income" won't be enough to grant what was promised, so they'll either raise the basic income and perpetuate the same cycle, or people will get off their ass again and get a job as if there was no basic income in the first place).
So what's your proposal to deal with the millions of jobs lost to automation?
You didn't respond to his post you just threw out the generic 'The commoners will steal from us you'll see it!'
Think of it like a tax system and it looks a whole lot better. It is also being tested in Nordic countries and its a serious consideration for the future.
400 million jobs have moved east in roughly the last 20 years, mainly manufacturing jobs. there isn't a country in the West that hasn't seen literal effects due to this, do you think they're coming back?
This shall be a growing trend, there's also a lot of middle class jobs that are going to be automated in the next iterations, your tune might be a little different then.
This also gives them purchasing power for that mighty idea or product you have. If they're so useless like you think they are, then why wouldn't you wanna exploit them under this system that would also benefits you.
We're pretty much at a cross roads in humanity imo
Lose automation, or lose welfare. I'm a guy whose self-employed and runs his own business, I know what red tape can do and I'm not a fan of slackers and people who are lazy.
Yet at the same time, you can't just throw them in jail or pretend like they don't exist.
idk about you, but I see my country as a home, each person as a unity within it. Assuming that peeps in Welfare are all lazy isn't a solution to systemic poverty.
millions of jobs were lost to automation during the british agricultural revolution, they moved sectors. The sectors that people will move/are moving to this time is research and entertainment.
>I know what red tape can do and I'm not a fan of slackers and people who are lazy.
>Yet at the same time, you can't just throw them in jail or pretend like they don't exist.
If we go full balls-to-the-wall state socialism like the hard-left ideological proponents of UBC would like then is this exactly what we could do.
>tfw automation is going to happen regardless of what anyone wants.
>Government isn't trying to spark people to master specialized skills and increase education.
>tfw rejuvenation medicine and shit to fight off ageing is coming for Baby Boomers and the younger generation is going to be stuck with their shit and leadership for a lot longer.
I don't know whether to be happy or sad, bros. Is the future for anyone 20 and under bright at all?
machines will soon automate intellectual sectors as well. They already diagnose better than doctors. Engineers, lawyers, etc, not far off.
The most secure jobs are the ones that require personal interaction, technical skill, and mobility. Like a locksmith or hvac. They will be the last jobs to go as we will need personable humanoid robots capable of interacting in diverse environments before that can be automated.
>They already diagnose better than doctors. Engineers, lawyers, etc, not far off.
Do you have a source for this?
Now you're thinking like a true visionary leader
So we are going to see millions of research and entertainment jobs arise and be profitable in the next few decades? Isn't research itself vulnerable to automation?
It amazes me the human capacity to handwave drastic changes in things like employment with something as revolutionary as this by appealing to events that happened hundreds of years ago.
People are far more likely to descend into game-addicted NEETs than finding productive things to do from what I've seen. That group of people is growing in numbers
What else can we do? What do you propose?
Nigga, the point of a basic "income" is not to hand out paper currencies, but to distribute necessary goods (that would be generated via automation). The "free currency" would come in form of a voucher that guarantees x amount of goods/services. You're a brainlet. You should write your uninformed opinion on Facebook. I bet you'll get lots of likes.
When in doubt, go look up based Tommy Sowell.
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tl;dr:
>Similar things have never worked out in the past
>If it's not the entire globe, goods, services and human skills will be replaced by foreigners
>The welfare system is much more than just simple social security, the numbers don't work out in terms of dollars
user, this is different. this is tens of millions of jobs being rendered defunct, including many unoutsouracble jobs in things like transportation or warehouse work.
Do you have a concrete proposal to deal with this surge of vanishing jobs?
There's so much to do still, I don't know how to begin to answer your question. General AI and automation isn't going to solve things like entertainment and sport, basically every scientific field is still going to exist and it's not going to fix the non-developed world(which is most of it). I doubt it'll fully replace education. The main thing that it's going to eliminate is grunt-work jobs. These people will have to adapt to the new world like so many before them when other changes came around.
You've answered nothing.
What profitable jobs will arise to make up for the tens of millions lost to automation in the first world in the next decade?
Let them live and die in poverty.
>it's not going to fix the non-developed world(which is most of it).
While the rest of us had our backs turned the majority of underdeveloped nations on earth have suddenly started getting their shit together.
Have you seen the GDP growth across Africa over the last twenty years? It's insane.
A combination of booming economies and massive foreign investment (primarily from China), has been prompted by the rapidly increasing stability and public health on the continent.
Nigeria recently managed to pay back all their foreign debt and has how overtaken South Africa in GDP by a wide margin.
Africans are flocking from rural areas to the rapidly expanding urban developments for the increased economic opportunity and far better access to healthcare and education.
In the space of one generation the average number of children born to an urban family in the vast majority of African nations has dropped to just slightly higher than 2, the simple replacement rate.
This was predicted as a result of the astounding recent fall in infant mortality but no one expected it to happen so quickly.
While average income inequality and living standards stagnate and fall in the worlds advanced economies they're skyrocketing on a global scale.
The majority of the world may well be on a level playing field in two generations time.
We live in the real world user, the consequences of doing that would be a drastic spike in crime and the empowerment of whatever political org told people it would fix that issue.
Do you want socialism to come to power? I don't. Stop being an edgy fag and join the discussion with serious ideas.
I hate this world, I hate the elites and if I ever got my hands on the terminator AI, I would without question launch it.
I would instruct it to do something and then something else... long story short ALL politicians would be dead for the next forseable future.
ALso exterminate all of mankind... Slowly.
AI has passed the musical turing test decades ago and the singing turing test recently.
With the deepmind shit, painting will soon fall too.
And we don't see them in sports because they are so much stronger than us that there is no point proving it.
The way I saw it, the question was "Does UBI work?"
I think I gave my opinion on that one. (Actually, I gave other people's opinions, but whatever.)
Anyway, I do not agree that "tens of millions of jobs" are going to disappear, at least not permanently. I could see a transformation happening.
At the end of the day, I'm positive I do not know enough about what will happen in the future in terms of economics, and I have a strong suspicion that you don't either. The difference is that I'm not willing to pretend otherwise.
Wow, the edge!!!
Be carefull of not cutting with it!
No thanks, I'd much rather stay here.
>the vast majority are college students and NEETs desperately hoping for gibmedats
Appeal to motive fallacy
back to /pol/ now sonny
Total employment in 1998
67%
Total employment in 2016
59%
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
That represents a total of 24 million jobs lost which never came back. This despite the fact that American manufacturing is at an all time high.
forbes.com
The results are this
www.nytimes.com/2014/02/03/business/the-middle-class-is-steadily-eroding-just-ask-the-business-world.html
Because people have less money to spend, businesses are folding.
It's happening now. It's now now. Everything that's happening now is happening now.
youtube.com
You cannot pretend it's not happening any longer and the more we delay taking action the greater suffering will increase.
Consider Dave. Dave is a morally upstanding family man. Everyone likes Dave. Dave is not academically gifted. He left school with mostly C grades in whatever his country's school leaving qualifications are, and no other qualifications. He's not a dullard, but everything can see he's not exactly going to be getting a STEM degree and program robots for a living. Nobody thinks there's anything particularly wrong with that.
Dave's first job was at a local factory, assembling widgets on a line. He performed well but soon the factory was automated and his job was entirely replaced with robot arm model 21-B. He found a brief role doing some rote data entry for a company still digitising their records, since he can type reasonably well. But the company figured out how good OCR had become and he was soon made redundant.
Dave decided to become a professional driver. He scraped by on his meagre savings until he got his heavy vehicle license and currently does mid-long haul trucking. Things are going well but now Dave is reading about autonomous vehicles and how they're soon going to be everywhere. He's nowhere near retirement and retirement keeps getting pushed back along with life expectancy anyway. He's worried. Even fast food joints are starting to replace many staff with automated kiosks. Toilet cleaners could feasibly be replaced with some kind of advanced roomba.
He could try to learn a more skilled trade such as welding or HVAC repair, but most of the entry routes are apprenticeships looking for 17 year olds. And even those roles are going to become fewer and fewer in number.
What should Dave do?
He should've been born smarter, went to an elite college, and majored in Computer Science. Oh well, too bad for him. What a fucking retard. In reality Dave will just inject himself with heroin, OD, and die, but who cares? He didn't graduate from Harvard.
Dave should die and not pass on his weak genetics and weak attitude. Should have paid attention in school Dave. The strong live on and the weak die out.
Dave should go join the Army since they take anyone up to their mid-40s and get a working degree.
got a cite on that? how does a machine evaluate artistic aesthetics?
>the money they have ceases to be worth anything at all
Sounds great
You're missing the point. We can't allow humans to not have to do anything or they will devolve. It doesn't matter if the 'jobs' we give them don't do anything productive at all, as long as they mentally challenge the human it's okay.
Or the ones with old money and connections.
Wealthier people are more likely to have more money. Having old money and connections is likely correlated with genetic superiority.
wealthier people are more likely to have a high IQ
oops :^)
>Wealthier people are more likely to have more money
source?
see IQ is genetic and high IQ leads to more wealth on average. The average heir is probably pretty intelligent. No mercy for the unintelligent. Let them become subsistence farmers, or something. We need to get our carbon emissions down anyway, there's no reason for average-IQ people to be living the typical Western lifestyle.
You fucking retard. People don't just do nothing, if you don't force them. For people to do nothing they have to be prevented from doing anything.
but, you see, Dave has a vote... and there are many like Dave. Dave voted for Trump as he believed that job creation to be the most important issue.
See where this is going?
What is important to understand here is that an increase in disposable income does NOT directly lead to an increase in demand.
Saving habits differ between different populations. Households in certain income brackets are much more likely to save money than others. There may be some people in severe poverty who would spend the UBI money on necessities, but poor people who can meet their basic needs without UBI would probably save UBI income.
It would be more akin to giving everyone an insurance fund which they might spend on consumer goods, but are more likely to tuck under the mattress for a rainy day.
But as always, any argument based on economic theory should be taken with a grain of salt, and its always better to consult empirical literature if its available., ESPECIALLY in a contemporary debate like the one over UBI or minimum wage.
t. econ major
Get rid of democracy, appoint a CEO and tell the dumb to go fuck themselves or get to work for less money. Insurance policy: drones and liberal use of the death penalty.
Aristocracy is not meritocracy.
People like you should be shot.
>poor people
>saving
lmao
Most rich families lose wealth by the second gen. and almost all by 3rd gen.
Most jobs aren't mentally challenging.
The average bottom rung wage slave would probably mentally challenge himself more if he didn't have to work.
The majority of people in China have been saving for decades, its part of the reason they export so much shit despite having such a huge population. Consumer spending has just started to rise in China a few years ago.
>Get rid of democracy, appoint a CEO and tell the dumb to go fuck themselves or get to work for less money
Oh, but that is what is in the making for America: a despot dictator who will give them all jobs.
>Insurance policy: drones and liberal use of the death penalty.
Going to back to the roots of American eugenics, perfect.
Democracy will get us all killed because the idiots will keep voting for Clean Coal if it means they can have a Job. With a despotic CEO who knows what they are doing and doesn't have to appease a rural base to win re-election, we can keep capitalism and a genetic elite while avoiding ecological disasters.
The problem is that Trump wants to get more people working in fossil fuel extraction and other ecologically harmful industries, when these people should just be subsistence farmers instead. These people need to be abandoned and resources must be preserved so that scientific progress can continue, which means most of the population can't have access to them.
The current system taxes the actual worker to support our water, roads, police, fire, schools, and everything else that makes us a "developed" nation. Most people don't seem to have a problem with that and in fact it's seen as a necessary and noble burden ("doing your part").
Once all the workers are replaced by robots, all the money instead goes into the pockets of the men that own the factory. The people and their government are defunded. Yet to ask these men to pay the taxes in lieu of the workers they replaced is cast as "robbery," even though it's but a fraction of what they were paying their workers before, and even if it's equivalent to the amount that the workers were paying before as a whole.
The eventual endpoint is a tiny group of people controlling 100% of the production capacity, who will eventually become the government.
The workers are so cucked, they'll go to bat for the rich men that disenfranchise them. Their impotent rage can easily be redirected towards red herrings (a great example: coal workers duped into blaming environmentalists for the collapse of their industry).
>ecologically harmful industries
Ecological conservatism is a hamper to scientific progress
>subsistence farmers
Farming is better done by machines
I'm actually bored of this conversation.
>Clean Coal
>ecological disaster
The reason coal is falling out of favor is much simpler; market forces. Horizontal drilling and fracking have made natural gas very cheap.
eia.gov
>The recent decline in the generation share of coal, and the concurrent rise in the share of natural gas, was mainly a market-driven response to lower natural gas prices that have made natural gas generation more economically attractive.
"Promote Clean Coal" just a tactic to snap up some easy votes. Because the liberal treehuggers were the enemy. If he'd have told them the truth, that the free market is the reason their coal factories are closing, they'd have realized he could never get their jobs back.