How the fuck do I get into probability without all the STUPID fucking real world analogies and problems...

What I mean by grind is that you just have to continue what your doing over and over again until you finally get what you want.

Just brainlet things: deriding applied mathematics due to your insecurity over not being smart enough for a word problem.

Hoel, Port, Stone gives more Mathematical insight as opposed to probabilistic thinking.

However, "rolling dice" and "cards" are actually really basic concepts used to introduce basic distributions in probability theory.

>not being smart enough for word problem

some word problems are page long and cluttered with useless information and ambiguities.

If you want that good probability shit then Kolmogorov is where it's at. It really is a good book, need some measure theory before going in though.

>page long and cluttered with useless information
Every pure math book ever.

You want abstraction of an applied maths field? Pls b b8

>probability
>abstractions
lol wannabe mathfag

Kolmogorov axiomatization.
Probability theory is basically a special case of measure theory, and everyone will tell you to study that first.

Kolmogorov's 1/2 law states that any event either happens or doesn't happens

To truly understand Probability you first need a good understatement of measure theory.

In regards of the frequentist vs bayesians shitshow you need some degree of formation in logic and probabilistic logic to give each interpretation a rigorous definition.

>What's wrong with getting the rigor out of the way
it is backwerdz from historical development of the field,
in which applied problems came first, and rigour afterwerdz
Lrn2history fgt pls

You will need naive set theory on your journey. Start there. Do not be afraid to use real world problems as examples.

silly nog

probability theory was born from considering real
world problems like how to win at gambling

your dichotomy between "abstraction" and "real world" is only holding you back

follow the math where it goes

>real world problems
>gambling
Because in the real world we always know the probability distributions exactly, all measurements are independent and identically distributed, we can calculate the expected value of everything, and the law of large numbers / central limit theorem apply perfectly, right?

Fuck the ivory tower and their meaningless abstractions, probability is an inherently applied discipline and human intuition for probabilities are infallible. Discrepancies should be a wake-up call for the so-called "geniuses" to tear down their rotten foundations and rebuild a better system of mathematics that actually reflects empirical reality.

Always hated the probability problems related to cards because I don't play cards, never have, and probably never will.

i.e. whats the probability of pulling a queen?
whats the probably of pulling a card of the same suit?

Shit always made me rage reeeee

you seem to be making the same point that i was: there's nothing inherently wrong with "applied"

it's also objectively true that probability theory was born of a study of gambling.

tfw you've played over 2 million hands of online poker

>I just want people to tell me what formula I need to use because I'm too stupid to grasp the significance of what I'm calculating
Is this a fair assessment of your problem? Why not?

winning or losing :^)

ITT: Freshmen puremathfags getting BTFO

Depends on your higher-level mathematical background. If you don't have one, get one. If you do then download Probability Theory by Klenke

Probability is pure mathematics.

Probability and statistics are voodoo math and have no connection to reality. it's literally abuse of the concept of mathematics to apply an exact language to an inexact, poorly defined application.

To be fair, when reading completely abstract mathematical texts, you should constantly be conjuring concrete examples as a check on your understanding.

But all of math starting with number theory is built upon a ivory basis. Would you really prefer math to be remade without numbers?

>Probability and statistics are voodoo math and have no connection to reality.
That's what someone who didn't understand shit from studying probability would say.

But you are "right" about statistics. Statistics isn't mathematics, it is a science. There is subjectivity in it.

>there is not subjectivity in math

found the undergrad brainlet

math....numbers.....hahahahahahahaha