The chances of x happening are small (say, 1 in 10). You have two buttons in front of you, a green button and a red button.
- If X does not happen and you pressed the green button, you lose $6000
- If X does not happen and you pressed the red button, you lose $1000
- If X does happen and you pressed the green button, you lose nothing
- If X does happen and you pressed the red button, you lose $1000
What button do you press and why?
I won't press a button, why would I?
The premise is such that you must press a button
Assume that deciding not to press any button has a cost of $6000 regardless of X's outcome
Then the red button
red button = 100% chance of losing $1000
green button = 90% chance of losing $6000, 10% chance of +/-0 = $5400 loss on average
You have that backwards. Chances of losing 6000 are 10%, losing nothing 90%.
No
Chances of x happening are 10%
If X happens (10% of the time) and you press green you lose $0
If X does not happen (90% of the time) and you press green you lose $6000
Read the damn post.
>X happens 10% of the time
>10% chance that if you press green you loose nothing
>90% chance that if you press green you loose $6000
>The chances of x happening are small
>- If X does happen and you pressed the green button, you lose nothing
>losing nothing 90%.
I don't fucking press any of the buttons. Every single press is a loss.
You must press a button, not pressing a button has a 100% chance of costing you $6,000
I don't have to do anything. Eat shit and die.
(((1/10)*6000)+((1/10)*0))/2
(9/10)*1000
something something expected value of the statistical result pick the lesser worse result
its like some people never even took a basic statistics course.
Wtf is this garbage? This isn't a math problem, it's an assignment. "make a probability chart, calculate expected result of each button". Give us a real problem faggot.
There is a 1/10 chance of you losing 6k if you hit the green.
There us a 100% chance of you losing 1k if you hit red.
The Answer:
>depends how rich I am. If I'm poor I'll hit green and if I'm rich I'll hit red.
Sorry 9/10 chance for green. Double negative fucked me up.
I put a gun down your throat and make you suck it like a dick.
I don't press any buttons, you think I'm going to play your little "mitigating loss" game without a potential gain?
No, I'm going to kill you or die trying.
Green and red break even when x has a 83.3...% chance of happening. Any less and you press red, any more and you press green.
I press the green button and hope X happens, because all other options will financially ruin me.
Why the fuck would i press green??
90% chance to lose $6000, 100% chance to lose $1000.
Seems like its better to press red.
I think the problem becomes more interesting if the "pay-out" was balanced the odds. Instead of a 1/10 of X happening it was 1/6. So probabilistically no outcome is more logical. Or even weigh it in the other direction. 1/4 probability of no penalty if green is pressed. IMO it would still be smarter to press red but very close.
No, it's you who are backwerdz.
found the anti-intellectual
Press neither?
the chances are you will never have such a qt gf
cuz she gay