Be me

>The outcome bias is an error made in evaluating the quality of a decision when the outcome of that decision is already known

How the fuck is that an error? We take antibiotics because we know the outcome of that decision. I grill a steak because I know it's going to be delicious.

That's kind of how decision making works

>I spent all my money on lottery tickets and I won the jackpot
>therefore, spending all your money on lottery tickets is a good decision

>arguing with success
L0Lno fgt pls

>when the outcome of that decision is already known

>be me
>poke around in someone's head with a knife
>am neuroscientist

A Brain Surgeon

You shouldn't judge a decision based on what happened afterwards, but on the information that was available at the time of the decision.

That's what the bias means.

Now, in the scientific method, what do we do with the results of predictions?

>You shouldn't judge a decision based on what happened afterwards

Literally

>You shouldn't judge a decision based on the outcome

>We take antibiotics because we know the outcome of that decision
no, we know how they work. so we know what the outcome will be. "Outcome bias" doesn't just magically negate everything but you have to have a bit more than a single instance. Say I slap the world's most venomous snake, it doesn't attack me. From this result should I then claim I understand snakes, their behaviour and that anyone can slap any snake and it'll be fine? No, if I were to slap it a few more times most likely it would attack. We know this because we are more comprehensively informed, through various ways.

...

>>no, we know how they work. so we know what the outcome will be.
this is what rationalists believe

>later the aflatoxin will cause cancer in the OP

Nothing of value was lost.

That's what American health care will be like when Trump & company get done with it.

>be me
>take finger and put it next to other finger to make more fingers
>say fingers equal to other fingers but together
>am mathematician

let's make a statement that we heard and use science and math to see if this is even possible. Let's have some fun boys

So much this!!

Fuck Drumpfh and fuck white people.

>Be me

>Poor

>Cut myself working in the yard

>Gets infected

>Can't afford doctor

>Can afford amoxicillin (boundtree.com/amoxicillin-group-12578-335.aspx)

>Infection is gone in two days

I am now a doctor

>be me
>poor
>cut myself working in the yard
>manage to drag my mangled body inside
>heal me kitter
>cat licks wounds
>two days later am healed
>praise kitter

well if your body is that fucked up you would say its "mangled" and you become healed 2 days later from kitter lickers then yeah praise kitter

That's correct, you shouldn't judge a decision from the outcome... You should judge it off the parameters that existed when the decision was made, and only after that, gather the result for more accurate decision making in the future.

Based kettle.

thanks kitter

thanks kitter

KITTY STRONK

Lrn2rationalism fgt pls

>cut down a tree and place it perpindicular to a lake to make a bridge
>am civil engineer now

Upvoted & fuck suburban rooral retards

yes you piece of shit, if you base your ideas on outcome alone youre seriously a retard

>Can't afford doctor
Land of the Free LMAO
NEVER do that, there are fungal infections that occur upon traumatic inoculation (see here for an example: academic.oup.com/cid/article/34/10/e44/329860/Cutaneous-Inoculation-Blastomycosis)

more like land of the ignorant. Nearly every city has a free clinic within 50 miles.

>LMAO