Veeky Forums I see lots of people blaming the recent hurricanes on global warming...

It could potentially influence hurricanes in a few ways. They likely will be stronger on average, as heat from the oceans are the main power source. But it could conceivably effect the length of hurricane season, or slightly adjust when hurricane season arrives. It could also mean more hurricanes, or possibly just bigger hurricanes. It might even influence how many hurricanes actually make landfall.

Any or many of these factors could be influenced by climate change, but it is likely the trends will only really be noticeable on a decade tier time scale.

The battle is already won, and already lost.

The USA will recognize the effects of manmade climate change on time, more so as a more reasonable leadership takes place, which is an eventuality. Boy, the backlash on 2020 will be epic.

However, the time lost is time lost, and there is not much that can be done about that. We should be already reinforcing and relocating the populations from the coastlines, setting up common international helping funds, developing gene-modified grains and potatoes that can survive mega-droughs, a coherent migration policy from the middle east and south asia, and all that jazz.

Instead, we are stuck playing diplomacy with the USA ortodoxy, the anarcho-reactionaries and the european ethno-nationalists.

The details about the generation or not of hurricanes due to global warming are just that, details. The parts that don't believe in the phenomenon would find others, the parts that do believe in it know that weather patterns are as chaotic as things get.

This is what I was looking for. So hurricanes feed off of the warmth of the ocean to develop, and thus this could increase their intensity. However, should that change be significant? Meaning, a 2% increase in global ocean temperatures should correlate to about a 2% increase in hurricane strength, correct? Or actually the square-root of 2% if my limited knowledge on kinematics has any applicability here.

Little to no applicability here.

For starters, there are far too many variables involved to accurately predict the magnitude of the impact the changing climate will have on hurricanes. However, it is extremely likely, and reasonable, to assume some measurable change will occur. This is because a measurable change as already occurred, the oceans on average are measurably warmer.

Warmer oceans means the water more readily evaporates. This moist warm air is what ultimately creates a hurricane. As the warm air rises, air pressure drops, sucking cooler air from higher altitudes in. This cooler air then warms up, collects moisture from the ocean, and rises as well. If this can continue long enough a storm system will form.

As oceans continue to warm, conditions for hurricanes likely improve. The problem is we don't yet have a good enough understanding on weather to be able to make any assertions on how these changes will manifest themselves.

However, the mostly likely scenario based on current data is that we will see more record breaking hurricanes or hurricane seasons, but still on a decade long time scale. Overall, the trend is expected to have a positive correlation with rising ocean temperatures.

Best case is once or twice every decade we have a really bad hurricane, or hurricane season, with either a record breaking strength hurricane or a record breaking number, and very rarely both, with periods of 5-7 years in between with hardly any notable hurricanes at all. This would be the "nothing has really changed" case.

Worse case is that we either have a record breaking hurricane + season every year, breaking records both in number and strength, or hurricanes disappear entirely. Both of these scenarios would be worst case because they both mean we've really fucked shit up, that weather is very fragile and far more dependent on climate than we thought, that it's too late to turn back, and that we are entirely unable to predict what is to come.

I see, that is a good explanation. I am confused about the air pressure part. Is global warming not supposed to be a change that occurs throughout the entire planet? I understand short-term temperature differences as everything adjusts, but overall the temperature difference between two parts of the sky (in elevation) should stay the same, correct? Because both (over the long run) will end up warmer. So the affect on hurricanes shouldn't be as "far-reaching" as it could be.

Is this correct?

1) Climate change can cause hurricanes
2) Not all hurricanes are directly caused by climate change
3) The effects of all hurricanes are enhanced by climate change
4) If we do not stop heating up the earth then hurricanes will become much more common and devastating
5) Many researchers have looked hurricanes from every angle, with great quality video, and there are still no signs of an evil jew in the middle of it causing it. The possibility the hurricanes are a jewish conspiracy and /pol/ is right has not been discarded, but it is highly unlikely that we will be finding hurricane jews anytime soon.

You have to be in the very eye of the storm to see them, and even then doing so will completely blind you.

Also you just pointed everything out as fact without any reasoning behind it, that's not what OP asked for.

Source: google.com

Then again, if there is more a direct link between hurricanes and AGW it will get a lot of people to listen

> earth is going through cycles of climate and natural disasters just like it has for hundreds of thousands of years
> the emerging left-wing new age theocracy takes a page from the catholic church and instills guilt in the lower less informed classes

> it's your fault the climate is changing, pay us taxes.

Why don't you carbon tax freaks ever bitch about garbage island, or the fact that there's toxic plastic particles everywhere?

How do you think you know about garbage island or toxic plastic particle. You are just an uneducated /pol/ conspiracy nut retard. The people who studied and brought those things to light where SCIENTISTS. The same scientists fighting for climate change. It is the same fight.

Post one link proving that humans affect the Earth's climate more than the fucking sun and the Earth's geological cycle

>Post one link proving that humans affect the Earth's climate more than the fucking sun and the Earth's geological cycle

>more than the fucking sun

Okay man. I will. But before that please post one link were scientists claimed that humans affect the earth more than the sun. I mean man, if a scientist claimed that then clearly they are retarded and (((them))) are running things under the hood. I am ready to become a neo nazi too. Show me the goodies man. Show me a scientist that claimed that!

> Muh scientists are GOD!! Thou shalt NOT question lest he be called a nazi frog racist for all eternity

Why are you so eager to punish your peers over shit that a bunch of greedy rich assholes caused?

That's not what I said though. I said that the scientists that study toxic plastic air and garbage island are the same scientists that study climate change. It is just that climate change has been in the forefront of science for a longer time.

I am 19 now so you could say I am kinda the new generation. When I was in school the biology textbooks we had taught us about climate change. That is why I know about it. You wanna know why climate change was there but garbage island wasn't? Because climate change has become more mainstream! It has been around for more time! Society has adapted to it and even included it in biology books. But my biology book also had chapters on general pollution, and when toxic plastic becomes a more prevalent problem in our society eventually society will adapt and include those topics in general education aswell.

Not everything is a jewish conspiracy. /pol/ is not always right.

We are the sun's bitch on this planet, we have no affect on it whatsoever.

Maybe I have a bad case of cognitive dissonance since I'm seeing the same people preaching "we're underpopulated bring moar migrants!" Aligning with the people who think humans are the problem and there are too many of us.

Give me a hand here will ya mr science goy

That's not a link buddy. Please, I want a source of a scientist claiming humans affect the earth more than the sun.

Come on! I already have my swastika ready. I got my razor ready to get me that nice Hitler stache. Come on, just give me the source. I will be at the next antifa protest killing some antifa fags by your side. Just give me the goodies!

skepticalscience.com/eclipse-why-sun-not-responsible-recent-climate.html
here now fuck off kid

>This evidence suggests we can rule out a major solar influence on recent warming.

All that he is saying is that the [math]RECENT[/math] warming is not due to the sun. That means that the sun is not emitting more than it was in the near past, but instead that the earth is for some reason keeping more of the sun's heat inside. That is called the greenhouse effect.

That article does not claim humans affect the earth more than the sun. It is not even saying that humans affect temperature more than the sun. You, my good sir, are FAKE NEWS.

So lets add you to the list.

CNN
WSJ
The Guardian
/pol/

The fake news stations of the internet.

Please stick on topic. OP asked for information regarding the effects of rising ocean temperatures on hurricanes.

youtube.com/watch?v=5WXV1PxUiAM

Step one, he says, "We need to talk."
I walk, he says, "Bend over. It's just a talk."
I smile politely at the Jew
He pegs my anus right on through
Overton window to my right
As it goes left and I stay right
Turn in my guns, and feel the shame
Dindu gun crime is my fault, I'm to blame

Why did I believe the Jewish lies
And cuck for all these non-whites
I speak the saddest words of tongue and pen
Now I know, /pol/ was right again

Let you know that white is best
'Cause dindus fail the IQ test
Kill some men in self defense
Gentle giant innocents
Lay down a list of what is wrong
The things they told you all along
You believe the Hebrew
But I pray redpills can reach you

And why did I believe the Jewish lies
And cuck for all these non-whites
I speak the saddest words of tongue and pen
Now I know, /pol/ was right again

As he begins to raise his arm
You raise yours, cause over all you're Deutsch
Heil until your arm is sore
And start another great war
He's kicking ass with blitzkrieg
Ignoring what generals are thinking
Invade Russia, but that's insane
Next thing you know he's blowing out his brains

Where did we go wrong? Our Fuhrer's gone
We went too far with the Lebensraum
And I would have sieg heiled beside the Rhine
Had I known how to save the Reich

Where did we go wrong? Our Fuhrer's gone
We went too far with the Lebensraum
And I would have sieg heiled beside the Rhine
Had I known how to save the Reich

How to save the Reich

How to save the Reich

Why did I believe the Jewish lies
And cuck for all these non-whites
I speak the saddest words of tongue and pen
Now I know, /pol/ was right again

Why did I believe the Jewish lies
And cuck for all these non-whites
I speak the saddest words of tongue and pen
Now I know, /pol/ was right again
/pol/ was right again

>That means that the sun is not emitting more than it was in the near past, but instead that the earth is for some reason keeping more of the sun's heat inside. That is called the greenhouse effect.
That's literally what global warming is, the greenhouse effect is caused by greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere
I'm so gald we agree now

Yeah... and the greenhouse effect is increasing because of human carbon emissions (or human related, as happens with cows). I mean, if you claim that it isn't human activity then I suppose you will be showing me where all this new CO2 is coming from... right? What's your theory. Come on /pol/, spit it out. Where is all the CO2 coming from if not from humans? Is it the jews? Are the jews made of CO2 and when they change skin they drop their old CO2 skin and that goes into the atmosphere? Come on man. Give me that good old /pol/ science. I can't wait.

>humans affect the earth more than the sun?

Who said this? Where?

It was a claim by the well known /pol/ scientist who said he wanted me to prove that humans affect the earth more than the sun, despite no scientist EVER claiming that.

So go ask the /pol/ scientists. I mean, this conspiracy must be fresh out of the oven.

I think I replied to the wrong person at some point I'm confused

Why does a poster on Veeky Forums count as a /pol/ user? Should Veeky Forums not be the fake news site? Or are you just falling for confirmation bias?

We all know where the deniers come from. Don't play us like we are stupid. Everyone knows. That is why one year you got your board trashed with audio of a girl selling a cuck guide book, and the next year you got merged with /mlp/.

> off topic
The entire premise is that humans are causing the climate to change. Under this theory one can assume that the quantity of humans have a direct impact. So my question was that if we should reduce our population to combat this happening why are we also being chastised over low birth rates

Water absorbs far more of the sun's energy than the air, and the water also radiates that heat back into the air, especially in the form of warm water vapor. That warm air expands, dropping air pressure, and rises. The expanded warm air is more buoyant, so it rises like a balloon until it can cool. Meanwhile, air that has already cooled high up, away from the water will get pulled into the low pressure zone. The ocean is kinda like your oven as it cooks, while the upper atmosphere is kinda like your AC. Air coming right out of your AC is nice and cool, while air next to your oven is much warmer. Sure in the middle you don't notice much temperature difference, just air currents, but the temperature gradient still exists.

The air near the ocean is always warmer than the air in the upper atmosphere. This temperature difference is the main reason it rains anyway. If the temperature across all altitudes was the same then water wouldn't condense out if the air to form clouds to rain.

But you are right in that global trends won't necessarily impact hurricanes in a "far-reaching" sense. This is because hurricanes only form in specific regions, specifically over the warmer equatorial waters, so just because on average temperatures are increasing, doesn't mean hurricanes see the same level of temperature increase. They could see more, they could see less. I haven't looked at the data that closely to be able to say.

Also, as oceans on average get warmer, it could be possible for hurricanes to start forming elsewhere. More hurricane basins could develop, or more likely, the hurricane basins will just expand.

Humans affect the Earth more than the sun? I must be missing something but that sounds like it makes sense, how can we ever alter the state of the sun more than we can alter the state of the Earth?

I can dig a hole in the Earth, I can't dig a hole on the Sun

Humans affect the earth more than the sun affects the earth

Is what /pol/ meant.

And what do you think?

Obviously humans cannot affect the earth more than the sun affects the earth. That is I am mocking the /pol/tard for strawmanning science that ridiculously. See that the faggot even posted an article that supposedly claims that when in reality odds are he didn't even read the article to see what it claimed.

You can't point at a hurricane and say "global warming caused that". You can however look at features of specific hurricanes, and find them consistent with what you would expect from a warming climate.

Hurricanes rely on heat to grow. Warmer waters help hurricanes intensity, colder waters cause hurricanes to lose energy. Water temperature puts a theoretical limit on how strong a hurricane can be. In a warming world, ocean temperatures increase and warm layers of water penetrate deeper into the ocean, creating a larger heat reservoir for hurricanes to draw from, which would lead to more intense storms and shorter times for storms to intensify.

The amount of rain a hurricane (or any storm for that matter) brings is related to humidity. The vapor pressure of water and maximum humidity increases with water temperature. Warmer climates put more water in the air for hurricanes to soak up, which leads to increased rainfall and flooding.

Global wind currents move hurricanes. Warming climates are expected to disrupt high level wind bands.

So we can look at hurricane Harvey and see that the features that made Harvey unique are consistent with what we expect from a warming climate. Harvey rapidly intensified from a cat 1 to a cat 4 over a single day. This is consistent with warmer oceans fueling hurricanes faster and to higher intensities. Harvey stalled over Houston because the high level winds that push storms out to sea or north to Oklahoma had collapsed. This is consistent with a warmer climate disrupting wind patterns. Harvey brought historic amounts of rain which led to flooding. This is consistent with warmer oceans increasing humidity.

You can read more on this here
gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

Exactly that's why I was bitching about our fixation on "man made" climate change when it's mainly the sun being the culprit. The precession of the Earths axis is also a major player

>Exactly that's why I was bitching about our fixation on "man made" climate change when it's mainly the sun being the culprit.
The effect of the sun is not responsible for current global warming. The effect of the sun is why the Earth is warm, not why the Earth is getting warmer. It is completely right to fixate on manmade climate change since the change currently going on is primarily manmade.

not the user you were responding to but
>the scientists that study toxic plastic air and garbage island are the same scientists that study climate change
is complete bullcrap.

Do you think there is a separate and isolated climate change industry or something?

I don't think climate change affects earthquakes.

Do you believe that the temperature output of the sun is constant?

What about which way the Earth is positioned in its wobble.

If these things are constant then why were there ice ages?

>Muh sun
I don't get why people talk about how global warming is a hoax and it's all caused by the sun. Do you think you're the only person that has thought of that? Do you think not a single person studying climate change has considered that and looked into it? 5 seconds on the internet can tell you that the effect of changing solar intensity on climate change has been investigated and found to not be a significant contributor to recent climate change. Furthermore changes in the intensity of the sun affecting climate happens on the order of millions of years, not a few decades.

...

So the problem is humans and technology.

What do you think will happen first. We run out of fossil fuels to burn or we nuke ourselves out of orbit?

Either way I find it silly that this issue has become more radicalized.

Climate change creates more extreme weather events - drought, monsoons, etc - which negatively impact crop production. The spread of warmer regions helps spread disease and pestilence. It's estimated 1-3 billion people are in danger of being displaced by climate change.

Mass migration on a scale never seen before (look what 60 million refugees is doing to Europe, think what 1 billion will do), coupled with an inability to provide basic resources (food, water, a place to live) will put significant stress on society. Add in ethno-nationalistic tensions and a plague here and there, and you spark widespread unrest that could topple society as we know it.

>Do you believe that the temperature output of the sun is constant?
No. Solar activity is actually going down so it doesn't explain current global warming.

>What about which way the Earth is positioned in its wobble.
No. Temperature change from orbital eccentricity is only noticeable over thousands of years, and it is in the cooling stage since we have been in an interglacial period for several thousand years.

Changes in insolation due to orbital eccentricity explain interglacial warming and cooling over hundreds of thousands of years, it doesn't and can't explain current warming.

No, you're being obtuse. The problem is excessive greenhouse gas emissions, not humans or technology. Stop trying to turn this into a moral/existential morass.

Has there ever been a century on this planet that didn't have at least a handful of catastrophic natural disasters occur? Keep in mind that this greenhouse gas boogieman has only been relevant for the past century. We don't have a basis of comparison since throughout history civilizations only recorded their own disasters.

We don't know how many hurricanes are "normal" to have in given timeframe. We certainly do hear about every disaster that occurs nowadays. It's just that just a century ago humans occupied a much lower surface area on the globe. We're everywhere now, and everything that happens to us is now a big deal that we need to blame something on.

humid air carries more heat energy than dry air, which increases the strength of the air currents that drive the hurricane

this is basic googlable information

>The problem is excessive greenhouse gas emissions, not humans or technology.
humans and human technology are the source of the excessive greenhouse gas emissions in this case though. talking about them is entirely appropriate

Are you REALLY willing to sacrifice that much with the information you have?(well, not you, I highly doubt you'll be shilling out the cash or starving on the street as a result) The consequences of doing what you describe are guaranteed, are the effects of global warming that you described garunteed too? Remember that we can't even guarantee that are predictions of tomorrow's weather will be correct, that may be a bad comparison, but it's a comparison that makes sense for most people to make, and it's up to you to prove it's a bad comparison if it's you who wants to do this.

In the long run it wouldn't matter that much.

Even if the sea levels don't rise to the point they invade coastal cities, relocating communities to not-on-the-fucking-shoreline will save millions/billions in damages from future hurricanes and similar severe weather that will occur in the region regardless of whether global warming continues or stops.

I kinda doubt that climate change causes earthquakes.

Lol this is far from the worst year for hurricanes and the intensity/size of the storms are far from the largest...check out typhoon Tip from 1979 and it makes these recent hurricanes look like kiddy storms. 2015 had Patricia which was impressive, but there is absolutely no way to link these to global warming....until we see Typhoon Tip sized storms on the regular I'm not buying it

The 1979 typhoon season wasn't even a particularly bad season, even though it had the strongest recorded typhoon.

In 1984 there was 50% more typhoons and 6x the fatalities.
In 1989 there was twice as many typhoons and 7x the fatalities.
In 1997 there were 27 typhoons and 8x the fatalities.
In 2013 there were 11x the fatalities of the 1979 season.

Your definition of a problem just doesn't seem particularly sensible.

>Keep in mind that this greenhouse gas boogieman has only been relevant for the past century. We don't have a basis of comparison since throughout history civilizations only recorded their own disasters.
That's like saying we don't know that jumping off a skyscraper will be harmful because previous civilizations didn't have skyscrapers. We have brains, we can figure out the effects of rapid warming ad yes they are harmful.

>We don't know how many hurricanes are "normal" to have in given timeframe.
I don't think global warming effects the frequency of hurricanes so your point is moot.

And how does this respond to what you're replying to? You seem woefully misinformed about what you're trying to talk about.

We can talk about them without the fallacy that greenhouse gas emissions are equivalent to humans and technology, thus there's nothing that can be done about global warming. Read what I'm replying to.

I pay my taxes, and I'd support higher taxes, so in a sense I'm willing to do my part. I'm also willing to eat less meat, if that's what it takes.

If you believe me, the effects of global warming over the coastlines are guaranteed. I cannot know when the sun will have a sunspot, but I can promise you the sun will rise tomorrow. I cannot tell you if the USA will have much rain in december, or which days will be sunny, but I can promise you it will be colder than august was.

Likewise, I cannot tell you if the india will not have food, water or if it will be to hot to live there, but the sea level rising is one of the few climate change predictions that I can promise you will come true.

Because that one is basic physics, CO2 traps heat, more CO2 makes earth hotter, and hot water expands.