/Nassim Taleb Appreciation Thread/

>in "introduction to probability" class
>first lecture
>within the first 10 minutes the professors starts comparing financial markets with throwing a dice
>mfw

How do you deal with these people, Veeky Forums?

I deal with it by lifting weights and not eating anything that doesn't have a Greek name. Also I fuck bitches.

>he thinks economy is a science and the global financial system is not a huge ponzi scheme ran by degenerate gamblers

try r9k

Well, aren't they?

At a certain physical level, throwing a dice is deterministic, as is the market. However, at the level regular people perceive it is absolutely random.

>as is the market

You wot m8

>people literally roll dice to decide whether or not to buy

This hurt just reading it.

>I'm a black swan!

isnt that Taleb's theory, though? That the stock market is completely random? Am I missing something here?

Shhhhhhhhh, he's trolling.

No, have you even read the black swan?

My professor made the mistake of the ludic fallacy.

You see when you roll a dice, it is certain that there are only 6 outcomes, and, depending on the situation, you can calculate your wins/losses in each of the 6 situations.

The stock market isn't like this AT ALL. You can't predict what tsunamis, central banks, floods or whatever will do. But if these rare events actually occur, they have huge consequences. Consequences people usually don't take into account, because "hurr because of my bell curve model it has only a 0.00001% chance of happening".

>comparing financial markets with throwing a dice

But there are no good, simple, consistent predictors for short-term (anything less than monthly) tick movement. For practical purposes, for anyone with less than an econometric quant education, market movements are best modeled by (weighted) die rolls.

If you have enough understanding of an industry to interpret better models, you shouldn't be in an introductory class.

What models would you suggest? Stochastic Heteroscedastic economic indicators?

>market movements are best modeled by (weighted) die rolls.

Pic related is coming for you.

When he finds you he will force you to do deadlifts, and listen to his stories about Extremistan and Mediocristan.

The result of casting dice follow a normal distribution, which makes them somehow predictable.

Financial markets DON'T follow a normal distribution, they follow a fat-tailed distribution. They are affected by extreme phenomena.

I'm not sure what you're saying

>When he finds you he will force you to do deadlifts, and listen to his stories about Extremistan and Mediocristan.


Then he will regale you with tales about his friends like Fat Tony over a dish of squid ink pasta and a glass of Lebanese wine.

Hey junior, probability studies for beginners is easily started off by use of rolling dice results.

You shouldn't proclaim yourself a dumbass so loudly.

Finally someone else who actually read the Black Swan.

>Financial markets DON'T follow a normal distribution
I bet you work for Conoco or maybe Chesapeake or perhaps SemGroup or possibly used to work for Dynamic Oil Trading of Singapore.

I actually only read Anti-Fragile. I think that Taleb has some powerful ideas that many people completely overlook, but he can be petty about dumb shit at times, so I don't take everything he says literally.


Nope, I'm an English teacher in Mexico making 5 dollars an hour

I still have to read Anti-Fragile, I really enjoyed the Black Swan, and now I'm reading a book by another author and I'm already missing his smug writing style.

Technically correct.

Probability is a man-made concept born of incomplete information. To us the die is "random" but someone with knowledge on the atomic level could predict the outcomes every time. To insiders the markets are predictable but to outsiders they are entirely random.

trying to read fooled by randomness but fall asleep by chapter 4. That shit got me off ambien

Hey dumbass,

Maybe you should actually read the context of the OP before signalling your holiness.

dude I didnt say it was. But Im pretty sure Taleb did. Your post is contradictory

No, you blithering idiot. He even calls this the ludic fallacy.