Give it to me real, whats the actual truth behind them? Surely if it was just analyzing the companies financial data anyone could do it and become rich, why dont mathematicians and their colleagues just build a portfolio of companies whos ratios are above X level and so on? There has to be something else to it, any average joe could look at a companies balance sheet and divide two numbers and say theyre in good financial standing.
What is the deterministic element that makes investors successful, luck? I WANT TO FUCKING KNOW THERE HAS TO BE MORE THAN JUST THE NUMBERS
Carson Williams
Not really. It's all numbers. Everyone just weights them differently
Robert Flores
The truth behind stocks is to figure out the business and industry entirely, by paying attention to the details.
The problem is that people think that you can crunch numbers to add value to your portfolio when millions of other people are doing the exact same thing.
Liam Wilson
Bro I'm fucking loving math because it doesn't involve cunts (working customer service) and it's interesting. I hope to make some profit from quantitative work. The field interests me.
Levi Barnes
Thats the thing though, why not make different weighing portfolios and computer model them seeing which range works best and make easy money? Theres a catch to something it cant be this easy
Carter Davis
So do you believe theres a human element that you cant model when it comes to stocks?
Fuck man I feel like this is just more about psychology and how the majority of people(idiots) react rather than the intrinsic value idea
Robert Ortiz
Don't touch technical or financial analysis. Read up on investment premiums and load up on them. Beat the market substantially over next 30 years and be happy.
Also know about diversification and MPT.
Charles Harris
People do that all the time. I dont see anything easy about it, though. That sounds like an insane amount of calculations requiring very high knowledge of mathematics
Cooper Peterson
This.
Look at tesla's valuation and tell me that has any relation to their worth.
Jace Sullivan
Yeah, also psychology is important in the short-medium term.
i.e. stocks won't be fairly valued in a bear market/post-crash, so never rule that out
Jayden Cook
Here's the truth. There is no truth. The stock market is a majority portion fictional. Do you want to know why? Tell me why stocks go up and down. Not just you, everyone tell me why a certain security fluctuates in the manner it does. Buyers and sellers, simply. However, everyone has their own truth as to why they are buying or selling, waiting on the sides or getting out all together. Algorithms, earnings, news, insider trading, market manipulation. Apple can be trading down, for example, because of bad earnings or, perhaps, because they will not come out and deny the possibility of an Apple car. I can show you plenty of stocks with horrible fundamentals that have great technicals and price appreciation, and companies with great fundamentals and terrible technicals with price appreciation. Your gain is a loss for someone else. If you believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis, you know that the market is just a mix of everyone's reality. What you see in a stock is your own reality of the stock. The reality of everyone else, to you, can become fiction. This isn't a conspiracy, this is fact. Sorry.
Elijah Powell
>not adding a luck modifier to your rolls.
William Smith
Do you think up the ladder corporations gather together and conduct market manipulation? I mean who could really sue giant corporations? Theyre pretty much gods.
I dont even know what to think anymore, the more books I read the less I know about wtf is going on... I inspire to be a personal investor after I graduate (I dont even major in finance in school) but I just dont know whats possible anymore
Ryan Wilson
Anything is possible in the stock market. Just worry about building your personal wealth. One of the key points to becoming wealthy in the market is acting like you're an owner of the company, which, by owning shares, you most certainly are. Buy ownership into companies you like. Like them even when others hate them. I'm not saying go invest in penny-stock nanochip stocks, but companies you know in real-life, not just by reading about them. The less you know about the market, the less stressful you are about investing and the more gains you have long-term.
If you want to read about personal investing, try reading Money: Master the Game by Tony Robbins. Guy is a bit of a scumbag, maybe a lot of a scumbag, but he will at least explain to you the market in the best way I've found how.
Adam Ross
Actually it's rather easy too make money in the market over long periods of time, but your average investors sucks way too much to invest in what they know, use fundametals or technicals. They dont know a fucking thing and neither does anyone else really. But everyone can exploit market anomalies, it's just painful to do so.
Jack Kelly
Whats the diff between fundamentals and technicals?
Joshua Davis
Do you like math? You have to know which one to use.
Ian Clark
Not can't model, but hasn't been modeled before. If anyone figures out the human heuristic AI gets a huge jump
Luke Morris
stop believing theres a secret and use your brain. stocks arent just about the end result (financial report) theyre about knowing every wee bit little thing about a company, like you have to know them like you know your penis.
Carter Price
How is that easy? As another user said, it takes a lot of fucking time and effort. And you know what the secret is? People. Companies are run by people, and challenged by other people running other companies also trying to make money. Computers have gotten very good and probability, but I don't believe they will ever correctly predict human behavior. And that's the catch.
Chase Edwards
The stock market is a dynamic system that integrates complex mathematical models with human psychology. Because of this, even with all the state-of-the-art models out there right now, the system is still impossible to predict accurately.
Brayden Butler
it's an auction.
Josiah Reed
you're not including peoples' ability to suss out the capabilities of a given management team, the technology that the company is developing i.e. what impact does that 100mm or 2 billion dollar R&D budget have, or how broad market dynamics are shifting and affecting industries that affect that particular company
equity analysis is extremely involved when you do it correctly. it's not just numbers
Blake Morales
>Surely if it was just analyzing the companies financial data anyone could do it and become rich
The idea that just because you CAN do something, everyone inevitably will, assumes that humans aren't both generally lazy and stupid. Not saying doing this will automatically make you rich, but you will definitely make money.
Gabriel Cook
The other thing is that the numbers are in the past.
Congratulations, we all know you earned $10M on $150M in revenue for the period Jan1-Mar31, 2016.
Now how does that tell me what they're worth today, four weeks later? The press release announcing a new contract for an undisclosed amount might bump it up a little, or a lot. The crappy weather meaning nobody's going out buying their product (or everybody's staying indoors consuming it, depending on what the product is.) The fleets of UPS trucks being replaced by FedEx trucks or by Amazon's own trucks at an Amazon distributor? Better get up early and pay an army of interns to take down the number of trucks moving in and out 24/7...
Time machines don't exist, so we fall back on fundamental analysis and financial modeling as means to imperfectly attempt to predict the future.
Noah Moore
>requiring very high knowledge of mathematics not really... computers just crunch a lot of additions and multiplications (elementary math) and spew out something but do you dare to put money on it? will you make money off of it? not bloody likely. whatever you do to abuse the market alters the market behavior. it's constantly changing what works and what not.
Andrew Cox
instead of modeling anything you should just play trends. social media is used by masses of investors. if you statistically analyze the chatter you can detect what people gonna do enmasse the next day and play it before them.
Nicholas Cooper
Stock value is all about future expectations
That's why during earnings report a company that beat estimates for the current quarter but downgrades their outlook for next quarter will probably see a big fall in stock price
Isaiah Morgan
so that's what you do if you want to buy back stocks?
Luke Murphy
What do you want me to say? That we all look on a secret website on what ti invest in? That we have some type of secret investing code? No. It's easy as pie to make money on stocks if you actually do research. People believe they will fail and that's what keeps them from actually trying, they rationalize it to something akin to gambling in any form, therefor they shall lose money. You know, if everyone says "if it were so easy, then everyone would do it" and none of them try it, they'd never know it would be easy. It's also a bit more than numbers, you have to know humans in some ways. Oil goes up in the Summer, gold goes up during money scares, Apple goes up during a new iphone invention announced, companies that don't meet their financial goals for the year and miss the mark go way down. Predictable and easy, doesn't take even half a brain. Your average Joe is just either too stupid or too paranoid of losing money to even try. Hell I made a killing in gold with a 30% return while investing in gold companies, I literally just picked one random cheap one because I knew gold would increase in value during the coming time. Hell, there are even fucking bots that play the stock market and do somewhat well. All they do is analyze news reports and company profits.
Brayden Johnson
>The idea that just because you CAN do something, everyone inevitably will
This. I'm taking Quantitative Financial Analysis at a decent business school and my professor touches on this almost every class.
>"Raise your hand if you have ever heard of this concept before in any of your other finance classes." >No one raises their hand >"Exactly. Now we're all finance students at a top research university and none of you have ever heard of this stuff before. Now imagine students at less prestigious schools. Now imagine the average person who knows nothing about finance."
The opportunities are out there, it's just that most people don't take them.
