How long after the halving should I buy BTC?

What's your guess as to how much it'll jump to? I'm thinking at least $800, but probably not more than $1,000

I thought it would go down after the halving?
So it will go up a lot and then fall down like a sack of potatoes?

From what I understand, the halving will cause less supply, which always means a higher price unless demand decreases. However, the price jump might have already happened, and if $650 turns out to be an overvalued figure then the price will likely fall below its actual value.

The price before the jump was about $450, and if you just assume that half the supply = twice the price, we're looking at $900 bitcoins. However, it's doubtful that this direct correlation will play out so cleanly in real life, and a better figure to go by in my mind would be 1.5x the price ($675) which is where it's hovering at right now.

I personally hope it stays low because I want to buy as many as possible before they replace (or at least greatly supplement) traditional banking

Lying bitch. You know damn well its 6.20 for 20h/s and you know they have a minimum amount of 0.005 BTC in your account before they send it to your wallet.

Stop giving false info for sign ups faggot

makes perfect sense. Thank you user

>everybody who knows about Bitcoin believes after the halving it'll go up
>and so, everybody buys before the halving

So who's going to be buying after to make the price go up? Did I get something wrong?

No idea. But I doubt it will ever go back much below $500, and the highest it can go is... who really knows how high?

It's a gamble I like.

There are realistic scenarios for it being worth $10K or even $100K+ in some years. If those scenarios come to pass, further *massive* and unexpected spikes are almost inevitable.

Could the halving prompt one? Not certain.

My real belief in what could prompt the next big spike will be a functioning Lightning Network implementation, as that would assure Bitcoin's utility as a global payment network. (Which is currently uncertain and is what I believe has kept the price low the last year or so).

Also just for fun as I stumbled over it in another website:

>one Bitcoin was selling for around $11, with a little more than 7 million coins in circulation and an average of 8000 nodes actively accepting 7000 Bitcoin transactions a day. It’s a fluffy, downy fledgling of an economy—a curiosity to outsiders—but very serious to those who can call themselves “millionaires” and have invested in its further success.
>This week, after months of slow, but steady decline, the exchange rate hovers around 2 dollars. The drop could be a part of a necessary readjustment from the artificially inflated prices of the summer

Watch you don't get caught out by a "necessary readjustment" from "artificially inflated prices", guys.

>Lightning Network implementation
Do we know how long until that happens, or is it too far away to say?

Top fucking kek. People will unironically fall for this. I hope you get ass cancer

This is the problem I'm worried about most of all. The only thing that will cause btc bubbles is too much hype, probably from greedy Wall Street motherfuckers who are gonna pump and dump so hard it'll make 2013 look like a blip. That's probably 4 years away though.

Good news is, if you keep up with it until then you'll be able to read the trends when it happens and cash out at the peak and buy back in at the crash. That's gonna be everyone's game though, so save up your luck.

>realistic scenarios
U avin a giggle m8?

I mean, if we assume bitcoin replaces 1% of paper money transactions in the world (M0), the price would rise to over $2,500 a coin. If we assume it replaces 1% of paper money AND easily accessible digital currency (M1), the price would be over $12,000. This is even after you assume all 21 million coins are accessible.

Currently btc's market capitalization is $10.4 billion, which means it account for about 0.2% of M0 and 0.04% of M1.

>assume
Why would we though?

i keep coming back to this thread just for this goddamn gif

>it will never be me pounding

Only for the purposes of a thought experiment. A nuclear war could happen 12 minutes from now rendering all of this meaningless. But I'd rather Try to map the future rather than sitting on my hands.

Right now we're in a hundredth-monkey situation, waiting for the 100th monkey. Nobody knows when it'll happen, all we know is that it hasn't happened yet, so get in while you can.

You could argue that it won't happen for years, or you could argue that bitcoin won't be the dominating cryptocurrency. But blockchain technology IS the future of banking, I don't think anyone could conceive of a reason why it wouldn't be. And if we make that very reasonable assumption, which cryptocurrency would the world most likely pick? Bitcoin was the first, it's the biggest, it's the most trusted. Which makes it a reasonable assumption to think that unless an extremely improved version comes along, bitcoin will continue to grow. When you break it down, it's actually a very conservative long-term investment in my opinion.

>the gif is better than the sauce

JAVs are a study in letdowns

If you are serious about crypto you report these scam referal links asap. They drain money from the crypto community that could be invested in coins or serious projects.

SAUCE

>
>I personally hope it stays low because I want to buy as many as possible before they replace (or at least greatly supplement) traditional banking
This, imagine the price 10 years from now

Except the company renting the hashing is insulating themselves from risk by receiving payment up front. It's not always about pure profit, but rather profit balanced with risk, and hash ocean (and all other mining rental/virtual mining schemes) are outsourcing their risk to renters, while maintaining rights to the hardware those renters paid for.

Bitcoin was the first and currently the most recognized, but it certainly won't be the biggest or most easily accessible once banks begin implementing block chain and distributed ledger tech into their settlement processes, and they're not going to use bitcoin, they'll use their own platform, R3. Google it, all the major banks are already contributing to its development.

That's not to say bitcoin won't have value, it just won't be the platform accepted by most major banks. Bitcoin is still very valuable for money laundering and/or terrorism financing, but it'll need a major image overhaul before any major bank will take on the risk of accepting trades in btc. It's an aml/bsa nightmare from a bank's standpoint.

That's honestly what I expected, people in the industry are gonna do everything they can to profit off their own version. Any word on when that's expected to come out? If it doesn't have a hard-coded limit like btc I'll be really disappointed.

a private blockchain defeats the reason to have a blockchain.

Is genesis mining scam, or just hashocean?

I've seen a lot of hashocean shills on /biz with ref links, but no one shills for genesis (they have much lower profit too).

>They drain money from the crypto community that could be invested in coins or serious projects.
that's like bullshit how do you know this btc will not be invested more meaningfully after redistributed in any which way? you don't. you just run your stupid mouth.

Anybody's guess I think. Not sure it's even certain it will work.

but from Blockchain.info's "Thunder Network" page..
> Much of the timing depends on upgrades to the Bitcoin protocol. At this time we’re estimating it will take roughly another 12 months, once you factor in network upgrades and burn in. However, once the technology is deployed, the long process of user adoption just begins.

It requires this "SegWit" upgrade to the network first. Not sure when that's happening but was supposed to be soon. That might be another source of a spike when it happens (successfully...) since it's a necessary first step.

it taking over the black market for example would give some high evaluations

of course, it's entirely speculation and we just don't know

It's certainly possible the banks will keep their old systems. But I think *tech* companies will build on the open system. (Well, they ARE already). New technologies will use Bitcoin. Internet of things, machine to machine payments etc.

Also peer to peer exchanges, lending... Banks can keep their dollars, Bitcoin will build a whole new ecosystem and make them obsolete :^)

Can we stay on topic please? The post got deleted, let's move on
Cool, thanks for the info. I hadn't even considered the IoT implications.

>half the supply
I keep seeing this retarded mistake.
The supply of NEW bitcoins are halved. As in, the rate at which NEW bitcoins are mined is halved. Market supply, the thing that determines price, is not halved. Market supply is the number of bitcoins currently up for sale. This supply will barely go down from the halvening. Don't be an idiot.

You're right, I mainly meant supply as in the amount of new bitcoins entering the market, but I can see how that'd affect the price a lot less than 2x or even 1.5x

Sure, but most people don't care about privacy or anonymity, they just want their paychecks to be easily traded for stupid consumer goods. If banks are easier to use, there's your mass market right there.

Sure, bitcoin may be cheaper and anonymous, but if people can't figure it out they won't use it.

I hope someday a bored guy at the NSA will just collect all the dirt on all 300 million Americans and post it online. I could deal with no privacy if we all had to see how nasty everyone really is.

Won't that make mining basically unprofitable, though? Last I've heard miners are struggling to turn a profit even now.

bitcoinmining.com/
en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Mining_hardware_comparison

Short answer- yes, it's basically unprofitable unless you know what you're doing. I'd imagine that after the halving, mining will be almost completely out of reach for the average individual.

Although, I've been thinking lately, would it be profitable to use bitcoin mining hardware to mine altcoins, and then just transfer them to bitcoin? I'm sure there are altcoins out there that are 100x easier to mine than bitcoin, and although they're not worth nearly as much, you still might turn a profit.

>$10k/ coin
>very conservative long-term investment in my opinion

Naw.
Youre making some tremendous leaps in logic. You say that blockchain is the future of banking as if it can not possibly go any other way. We dont even know that. We know that banks are looking into blockchain tech and they might possibly utilize some form of it in the future (most likely a centralized version), but even that is uncertain. They could possibly create or adopt another public/private ledger system that only vaguely resembles the blockchain. It is the least likely scenario that they use the actual bitcoin blockchain to backend banking transactions.

So where does that leave us? Public adoption. The public is probably bitcoins only hope of circumventing the banking system and becoming used. Thats entirely up in the air. Paypal is already the most used and trusted payment processor and I dont see them getting knocked off that spot without a major catastrophe affecting the technology. Bitcoin exchanges require 10 times the amount of verification that Paypal does. Bitcoin) harder to use, harder to understand, takes longer to confirm transactions and has no consumer protection.

So no, to answer your point, $10k/coin is not at all a conservative estimate. It is overpriced right now as it is, considering its limited use.

Fair enough. What would you say its actual value is? $200?

Not really. Its all hype. The amount of bitcoins mined in a year is about the same transacted in a day through exchanges. Its a negligible amount that shouldnt really affect the market at all except psychologically for people who cant into math.

Not sure. There is nothing fundamentally different from when the price was $250. Its not like all of the sudden bitcoin has triple the use or demand. Even the chinese using BTC as one of the multiple different ways to pull out of the yuan shouldnt affect bitcoin price longterm since they have to sell it at some point. They are not using it as an alternative to their currency, they are using it as a transfer vehicle. What we saw was a quick pump due to short term demand. Its just not sustainable in the long run.

I guess I've gotta be honest with myself and realize that while this would be my perfect payment system with or without the investment potential, a lot of people just don't give a fuck about its qualities.

I mean how great would it be to have an economy where you can't print more money to "solve problems"? I understand inflation has good aspects to it but to me having a currency that can't be fucked around with by people for their own profit or to control markets would be crazy cool.

I've been buying at every new low since it started dropping, ie 1 bitcoin at 720, 1 bitcoin at 650, 1 bitcoin at 610. I expect it to go all the way back up but I don't know how far down it will go so I'm rebuying at every opportunity.

>can't be fucked around with by people for their own profit or to control markets would be crazy cool
This would be cool for sure. If a currency like this ever existed I would probably be one of the first ones to use it. I just dont think we are there yet, or maybe even ever. Bitcoin, as it stands today, is mostly centralized. Its just that instead of a corrupt government or central bank controlling world finances, with bitcoin it is mining conglomerates, exchanges, crypto news media and whales that control the market. I dont really see this as an improvement. Bad characters exist everywhere and it is an altruistic pipedream to think that bitcoin is immune from that because it is decentralized. I have a feeling that the amount of market manipulation and insider trading that goes on with bitcoin is massive. MtGox and willybot were most likely just the tip of the iceberg. When Enron misreported revenue, it went under pretty much overnight, people went to jail and the entire US regulatory system was overhauled. With bitcoin, however, it was discovered that the major chinese exchanges were misreporting transaction volume on a huge scale and they didnt even get a slap on the wrist. This is a problem since these same exchanges account for over 90% of bitcoin trades. Bitcoin is just not something that I can have faith at all in.

how much have you put in total? i've got the spare cash lying around but im scared it'll go down to ~500 so i don't want to buy yet

Damn. Time for me to git gud at stocks I guess.

almost $3000 so far. The only price I'd feel 'safe' to buy is in the low $400s. Everything lower is a risk and I'm covering my higher purchases with buys at lower values so that I'll still make a profit if it only goes back up to $660. But if you don't have the bankroll and can't afford to lose hundreds or potentially thousands I wouldn't recommend buying in until it has significantly stabilized in weeks.