Automation

>how do you think the future economy will look like?

We are moving towards a full service economy because primary and secondary industry will be almost fully automated.

Yes a lot of jobs will disappear, but it will also mean the cost of a lot of goods and services will drop dramatically, because the main cost of industry is your employees which require a wage, super and what not as apposed to a robot that has a install cost, power requirement and maintenance. You can also run a robot for 24 hours a day. So everything will be cheap as fuck, mostly. Things like education will stay expensive though, because it involves people and time.

>What will people do for a living?

Because everything is cheap as fuck, work diminishes in importance because you no longer have to work your arse off to live comfortably. We'll be able to return to an era where only one person in the household needs to work. People will be able to focus on creative pursuits instead of having to slave away at shit jobs to survive. Some people will be able to turn that creativity into a career.

Poor people will have mass produced shit, rich people will have things made by people because it shows that they are wealthy enough to be able to afford to pay a person to make something. So you'll see artisan type businesses that hipsters pop up everywhere, and because the overall cost of living has reduced dramatically, what would now be considered to be a side gig could potentially be a job that allows you to support a family.

The types of jobs that are going to be eliminated are highly repetitive jobs, jobs that involve processing large amounts of data through set rules, things that computers excel at. The jobs that are going to remain are jobs the require creativity and improvisation.

yes

I'm adapting all right I guess and there is no denying it's do that or perish. I think we are trying to predict what the jobs of the future are here. I am thinking mortician would be good, there will be lots and lots of dead people. Debt collection and payday loans are getting big. Uh, grocery clerk won't be automated. Ummm, hmmm, I dunno, maybe if you got brains be an automater consultant or something. I think little people are in for a rough ride because what's left of the middle class will be stomping all over them just to maintain their standard of living while uber elite hide in their bunkers with private armies and count their shekels.

I don't know if biz like CGP Grey UT he has a great video called "Humans Need Not Apply" and its a 15 minute short about how automation is coming and what kind of economic impact it might have. I'm on mobile so I can't link it but I highly recommend it.

>The jobs that are going to remain are jobs the require creativity and improvisation
this is basically all jobs

>We are moving towards a full service economy because primary and secondary industry will be almost fully automated.
There will certainly be a lot more automation, but it will be far from fully automated, especially in agriculture. And (sticking with the agricultural example) there will be a lot of work managing things that are currently ignored, such as soil microbiology.

>Yes a lot of jobs will disappear, but it will also mean the cost of a lot of goods and services will drop dramatically
More likely the cost of goods and services will stay the same and the money supply will increase dramatically.

>There will certainly be a lot more automation, but it will be far from fully automated, especially in agriculture.

Thats why I said almost fully automated. Farms that once needed 20 people to run now only need 1 and in the near future its likely that multiple farms of this size will only need one overseer. Same as a factory that once needed 1000 employees might only need 50. But these 50 people will be much higher skilled as they will need to take on multiple roles. For example, where once an entire maintenance team was needed you now only need one or two guys but they'll need to be skilled as mechanics, electricians, plumbers etc.

Technical roles that require education and expertise, that require applying theory to problems will remain. Think your engineers and scientists and whatnot. Jobs that require going through large amounts of data and applying set rules will be automated very quickly. Lawyers, accountants, even some doctors might find themselves being replaced by machines if all they do is basic low level stuff.

>More likely the cost of goods and services will stay the same and the money supply will increase dramatically.

I'm not a business major, I do engineering. But I figured if a company has fully or almost fully automated their workforce and has increased their profit margin, will reduce their prices to undercut the competition. This will go back and forth as companies try to undercut each other, relying on volume to make more money. If thats not how it works I'm all ears.

This seems a tad bit naive to me. We're not talking about unskilled labour moving from fields to factories. We're at a point where unskilled labour jobs might go away in a decade or two. If we fully automate logistics (which is very much within our grasp) we'd put 10-15% of workers (mostly low skill) on the streets. When has this happened the last time? The cars still need to be build just like now, so there are no new jobs. The only new jobs are a few hundred software engineers for the pilot system.

The scales do not match up. Less jobs are created than taken away. 10 people who manufacture train autopilots take the job of 1,000 train drivers. 5 software engineers cut down on 50 office personnel.

And AI will be a big game changer. So far we could say, "Well, you've gotta step up your game. Acquire special skills and you'll be employed." but AI starts cutting into white collar jobs.
We're already at a point where we can have software come up with better, more efficient solutions than humans could (genetic algorithms). Neural nets are starting to take off. 80% in customer service will be the next to go in 20+ years. If government got their shit together they could rewrite the tax code to make it compatible with full automation. Right now we have algorithms capable of composing hit music, not even the arts are 100% safe.

So far we've shifted jobs around. But we might soon develop tools that will be better at current *and* future jobs. So newly created jobs aren't a guarantee for human employment.

No. Just no. Flipping burgers, laying bricks, trimming hedges and driving a truck don't require creativity. In fact, creativity is punished in such jobs.

Just a 200 years ago something like 80+% of people worked in agriculture. Now it's well beneath 2% in developed countries. Agriculture really doesn't matter anymore although I can see human involvement easily going down to a tenth of the current state.

For 20 farms losing half their working froce you'd probably need 2-3 microbiologists? How is this a compensation? Also, you're taking away cheap easily accessible labour and create a few well paid jobs for people with degrees. This doesn't solve the demographic problem.

But you're just making up numbers. There's more air force pilots piloting drones than air force pilots flying jets. We had 3 people working an extrusion line in a factory each shift. We automated 1 with robotics. We have an operator and 2 technicians for it. Lost 3 jobs, created 3.

Trains aren't even automated besides isolated metro systems in some cities and airports. Let's just say 10 people did replace 1,000 train operators. How many people do you think are employed developing the automated train system? Maintaining it. Improving it. Logistics. Manufacturing.

I'm positioning myself as the controller of autonomous machines.

have a (you)

> masses
> uneducated
> short-term thinkers

Better start educating yourself on a skill set that can't be A.I completely. Even though you have IKEA, people still want custom furniture and that costs thousands.

Mass unemployment and underemployment. Famine. Pestilence. War. It's already happening in the undeveloped world.

Until self-driving trucks join self-driving cars on the road. What then?

Modern technology... data centers, computing improvements, self driving cars... these are all infrastructure.

The goal of the near future is biohacking & human augmentation.

The amount of work in those fields are limitless...

;)

There was a time when nearly everyone was a farmer, now were at maybe 2% of the population in the first world.
Are all those people unemployed now?

I'm a programmer and I have an insight on today's AI and it's future developments.

While I don't know the future of economy, I can sort of predict the future of jobs.

In 50 years we're going to see less big companies, quite a lot of small companies and massive growth of public sector. Creative jobs, jobs which greatly vary in execution and jobs with serious responsibilities will remain. Mostly the last one, because when things don't work somebody has to go to jail. Skip 100 years forward and a large portion of those will be gone aswell. There will be hardcore socialism and a ton of useless research jobs because people need to be fed, housed and kept busy so they won't start murdering each other to pass time. If people are going to be good for nothing but still a burden then they might aswell be developing something new, or teaching each other to do so.

So we're looking at somekind of weird commie-university-government dystopia where working means participating a meeting few hours a day or coming up with a new idea / paper for extra money.

This is the case if we don't actually establish adventure capitalist space colony. And we won't after a certain point because nobody has the funds to do so, except the government.

I think that because people (and therefore society) value jobs that much, people will work bullshit jobs just to keep employed.

I think technology, research and cultural jobs will explode in a hundred years, I don't think intellectuals ever will be out of work.

The problem is the fucking truck drivers, and people wanting to cut public education spending . If we don't make people smarter or able to get a proper job, society will fucking crash

inb4 clicking these boxes for google will be a full time job

Fully self driving might not happen for a while. Human backup operators might br required for safety reasons.

I say its about time we stop having 8 hour jobs and instead have like 4-6 hour jobs. It can be done when people understand the time is ripe. And if someone wants he obviously can work more. But the point is to transcend to something that will give people more time for science, philosophy, art etc.

I used the example of agriculture because it's a primary industry, not because it's a major employer. And microbiology is one example of the many things that were left to chance in the past, but are likely to be carefully managed in the future.

If you want to know where people will be working in the future, follow the money. Firstly look at what people need to spend money on. Then what people will choose to spend money on. Then what they would choose to spend money on if they didn't have budgetary constraints. Then do the same for governments.

It wouldn't be hardcore socialism. There would still be lots of small companies, though the private sector's comparative advantage will have diminished and the public sector will continue to grow. There will be a high rate of land tax (by which I mean if you borrow to buy land, tax payments will exceed loan repayments) and everyone, whatever their skill set, will have a right to a government job if they want one, though private sector jobs would usually pay more.

And many technological developments would stem from research initially assumed to be useless.

I can't see how a space colony would change that.

faggotry is pretty safe so you are good

I think the clicking of those boxes is a waste of time. I'm sure all that time added up collectively is that of COD.

Hopefully natural selection will take it's course and the working class dies out. That way we can perhaps be like the free men in ancient greece without needing to keep slaves.

The point of automatization is to remove humans as much as possible from manufacturing. This is not going to be like the industrial revolution.

All jobs worth a damn, yes. However most plebs work with things like freight, manufacturing, retailing etc.