/mggg/ - Monster Girl Games General #61

I expect they math out to a very similar chance of success, so just do the golden key so it's one and done.

That said, can you just use 1 working silver key 11 times?

Also, this puzzle is boring.

SAKI-CHAN ~*sparkle*

Think of it like this, the door has 11 locks for silver keys, and each key can only work for one lock a piece, so you need 11 unique working keys, one for each corresponding lock.

Another victim of monster brainwashing...

Remove Luddite Village

This makes my brain tremble.

Tremble?

...

The chance of at least 11 out of 42 keys working is the opposite of no more than 10 working, so...
Chance of one key working -> 42 * (.29)(.71)^41
Chance of two keys working -> 42 C 2 (.29)^2*(.71)^40
etc. etc. right up to 42 C 10 (.29)^10*(.71)^32
It comes out to about 28.98 percent of getting ten keys or less, so you have a 71.02 percent chance of getting enough silver keys.
In other words, not only did you waste a shitton of time trying the silver keys, you were also fucking retarded because it has a less chance of working.

I guess it's /g/ because it's babby's first programming game.

It sounds more like it's one of those 'all eleven must be turned at the same time' doors.

>Chance of one key working -> 42 * (.29)(.71)^41
The fuck? The chance of one key working is 29%, how does that equation above equal .29?

A simpler way of looking at it is calculating the average success rate of the keys: 1 gold, .75 success, 1 success needed; 42 silver, .29 success, 11 successes needed; 1 * .75 / 1 = .75; 42 * .29 / 11 = 1.10727272etc.

The silver keys have a higher probability of successfully freeing your waifu.

As for calculating the actual odds, you're right about calculating the point of failure, which is 1 for the gold key and 32 for the silver keys; .25 ^ 1 = 25% chance of failure for the gold key, and .71 ^ 32 = .0017388%, AKA extremely fucking unlikely.

that's the chance for exactly one key out of the 42 working and all others not working

The chance of any one key working is 29%. The chance of exactly one key out of 42 chosen is equivalent to
1 key working
41 keys not working
42 ways to arrange the set of working keys
Therefore, the chance of any given key being the one and only key that works is (0.29)^1 * (0.71)^41, and the chance of exactly one key, but not any specific key, out of a set of 42, working, is 42 * (0.29)^1 * (0.71)^41. You repeat this for all possibilities of failure - the possibility of two and only two keys working is. I believe, 861 * (0.29)^2 * (0.71)^40, etc.

The point of failure for the silver keys is 32, except .71^32 fails to take into account the probability of it success, 0.29^10, and also fails to take into account that it's not specifically the first ten keys chosen that work.

.71 ^ 41 would calculate the failure point for a two key requirement though. .71 ^ 42 would be the failure point for one key.

Not even him but try doing that calculation again pretending there's only eleven silver keys and calculating the probability that it still works

It's the gold key isn't it

No it wouldn't.
Do it in a simplified manner, imagine you're tossing coins.
So let's say we toss five coins, what's the chances that it has at least 3 heads? Your calculation would give 0.5^2 = 25% for not enough and 75% for enough. What about 'at least 5 heads'? The point of failure is 4 tails, so 0.5^4 = 0.0625 for failure and 0.9375 for success? Really?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This is actually pretty easy.
The answer is break the hinges

It's 29% chance of working for each silver key, which means you'll get a good silver key every 3/4 tries. You have 42 silver keys and need 11 working ones.

You have better chances with the silver keys.

It doesn't work that way. You're not able to simply compare ratios and say 'lo and behold it works'.
How about you go through the actual mathematics that would result in your result? Hint: it doesn't exist.

Do a computer simulation and you'll see I'm right.

*teleports past door*

>do a computer simulation
I'm using the textbook equation for 'at least X successes out of Y tries with Z chance of success each.'.
As far as a computer simulation goes - first off, 'lmao no'. I'm not writing up a program to flip coins and archive the results and running a goddamn coin-flipper 1000+ times. Second off - why use a computer simulation and try to get the answer through statistics when you can use the mathematical answer that gives infinite precision?

really makes you think

It can be used to see if one has a higher chance on average. On average, the gold lock needs 1 / .75 = 1.333 keys to unlock one lock and the silver lock needs 3.338 keys to unlock one lock, or 37.93 keys to unlock 11 locks. You're given the option of getting one gold key or 42 silver keys. The silver keys have a higher chance of working.

No. No they don't. You're like the type of person who says 'if the earth were round austrailia would fall off'. Look, someone even bothered to write up a program for you doing a trial a million times , and lo and behold it's the same fucking result I got .

>s = s+1
>not s += 1
y tho

You're like the type of person who says 29% isn't neatly situated between 25% and 33%

Wait, why 10 and not 11?

It doesn't matter whether or not it's neatly situated. You don't get to simply multiply around ratios and claim the answer. Both the simulation and the math tell you you're retarded, no matter how illogical you think it is.

You don't need 'more than eleven', you need 'more than ten' -> 'at least eleven'.

that's not valid matlab syntax

Ah it's matlab.

>'if the earth were round austrailia would fall off'

The earth can't be round you fucking heretic.

The Greeks, Persians, and Chinese all knew it was round
In fact, I'm pretty sure the Church makes it round too, since you have talk of the 'spheres of heaven' where stars, planets, and the sun revolve around the earth. You can't well revolve around a flat disc without it being asymmetrical, and how could God's design be so imperfect?

Yeah but the Greeks, Persians and Chinese were also heretics therefore wrong.

The Church supported Heliocentrism, not (necessarily) Flat Earth which isn't implied in the Bible and actually kind of clashes with the usual model of successive spheres where God occupies the outermost sphere, since a flat earth leaves no room for Hell. Whoops, looks like you're the heretic.

Hell is in a separate dimension you heretic. Same with Heaven.

Find me the line in the Bible which says that.

John 3:13

I don't need a single one.

Threadly reminder!

>John 3:13
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.
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John 3:9 - Nicodemus answered and said unto him, How can these things be?
John 3:10 - Jesus answered and said unto him, Art thou a master of Israel, and knowest not these things?
John 3:11 - Verily, verily, I say unto thee, We speak that we do know, and testify that we have seen; and ye receive not our witness.
John 3:12 - If I have told you earthly things, and ye believe not, how shall ye believe, if I tell you of heavenly things?
John 3:13 - And no man hath ascended up to heaven, but he that came down from heaven, even the Son of man which is in heaven.
John 3:14 - And as Moses lifted up the serpent in the wilderness, even so must the Son of man be lifted up:
John 3:15 - That whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have eternal life.
John 3:16 - For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.
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So there's no lines around it which imply a seperate dimension, while the line in question says 'no man hath ascended', but makes no mention of it existing on a completely seperate plane of existence, unless we take the concept of 'higher than the sky' to be a seperate plain of existence i.e. the spheres of heaven, but then Hell, too, would be considered to be a seperate plane of existence simply by being 'deeper than the earth'.

You don't understand the verse because you're a heretic. Matthew 12:36

Repent, sinner.

A divine being doesn't need to seek help from a much lower tier divine being.

If you complete the tower of administrator area, does the girls in there become unrecruitable?
What about the honey pots? Once you defeat them are you forced to go NG+ if you want them and weren't able to recruit them?

Aren't there infinite Honey Pots and Mimics in the Labyrinth

Last dungeon has them.

can't recruit from the labyrinth
the tower will show up again in the real world after you complete the game so you can recruit them from there

>the tower will show up again in the real world
>implying the 'real world' isn't actually just a dumping ground for Tatarus

Herlies did NOTHING wrong!

So that means I can recruit the regular monsters, but if I run out of honeypots I'm out of luck?

>can't recruit from the labyrinth
Are you sure? I believe one of the throwaway convo lines from Mimcs and Honeypots says 'don't worry because there's a place with lots of us later on so don't fret if we don't join up'.

honeypots and mimics will show up randomly in the area where all the honeypots are in the tower
they were talking about the tower, not the labyrinth

>page 10

...

I thought this was hanako from the thumnail

nope

Is there any torrent for Quest Failed?

Come on m8...

Man, I really want to gut her.

I cant find that albert comic on sad panda anymore, did they remove it?

Nope what? You won't trust my advice or won't believe her lies?

Mermaid-san is just trying to propagate her species.

Needs panels with those old guys warning the shota and mermaid-san denying such lies.

Muh dick

More Shikibus-Quest when?

...

So whats the story with those three? Do they do anything in part 1?

They attack Luka on the boat, seal the Kraken and brainwash Meia into taking her place, and massacre a village and kidnap all the women to turn into succubuses.

They're one of the groups who want to fix the timeline, and they're one of the least competent at it.

And they also turn Sara into a succubus and infect the harpies with an ancient disease. Most of the new sidequests are undoing their work.

It's not their fault Succubi only really know how to turn people into dried fish. They're just doing what they're good at!

Working on mermaid-san edit.

Much better.

>and they're one of the least competent at it
They're THE least competent. In fact, I'd say they're the only ones actually fucking things up even more.

> fucking things
Isn't that what they're good at?

Touche

Shikubus did nothing wrong

I don't know which is my favorite Shikubus.
I do like Mikubus but other ones are sexier...

Except do everything terrible. Which is worse than doing nothing at all.

Hey, they helped out in Sabasa!

Shikibus's are full on bed end sould drain snuff. They are terrible.

I can't rule out that they had something to do with Sabasa King disappearing into Tartarus thus delaying his participation in Luka's manly super men adventure.
Speaking of, we might finally learn the guy's name.

The investigators said a gust of wind pushed the Sabasa king into the abyss, and guess what element succubi have an affinity with?

They're the BEST at fucking things

Honestly I'm more upset about Micaela than Sabasa King.

Speaking of which, he's not in the Sabasa tartarus or in the doomed dimension is it possible that Marcellus found him and sent him away somewhere?

Both are great characters and I was fucking pissed after what happened to Micaela.
I hope both Sabasa King and Lazarus end up being recruitable in part 2.

I personally think that it would be too weird if Micaela were left alive. She's far too powerful on her own to not break the story somehow and if she were somewhere not in Part 1 Luka couldn't have been baptized. There's also the fact that she and Marcellus are allies in whatever's happening and would have gotten in the way of the other parties' plans.
Unless he secretly had an angel in his family history Marcellus or someone else sending him off is the only thing that would make sense.

I can see the Sabasa King almost immediately agreeing to go with Marcellus after being explained what's going on.

Some people suspect the Gold Region interfered with his disappearance. I expect him to be in a Tartarus or lab in that area.