Online sports betting

Since most of you here like trading i thought some of you might be into online betting also because is a market i can read "easier"

I start with 100. Bet 20 on low odds like 1.15 - 1.30 and profit around 5 on every success, doing this most of the day and aim to profit around 40-50 a day. Sure there are losses every now and then but you can easily recover. And mostly bet on goals , like over 0,5 goals etc, so when 1 goal is scored the money is already in the account. Or bet that the first half will be draw or 0-0 and when 20-30 minutes pass u can cash out earlier and take the money

I will tell you the secret to my success, because you will never be dedicated enough to replicate - and if you do; you deserve the dough that follows... Half Kelly and machine learning.

Yes man half kelly would suggest bet 15 from 100. Its close to what i use you can adjust if u wana push ur luck in the beggining or if you wana be more safe.

What are your numbers how are you doing

What is half Kelly since you're talking soccer I'm assuming you're from England and would prolly know about cricket bets, "I know cricket" and see there's a huge betting market here where I'm from.

>I start with 100. Bet 20 on low odds like 1.15 - 1.30 and profit around 5 on every success, doing this most of the day and aim to profit around 40-50 a day. Sure there are losses every now and then but you can easily recover. And mostly bet on goals , like over 0,5 goals etc, so when 1 goal is scored the money is already in the account. Or bet that the first half will be draw or 0-0 and when 20-30 minutes pass u can cash out earlier and take the money

You are going to lose money! Believe me.
Low odds almost never have value.
Live odds almost never have value.

Betting on low odds is like playing roulette and bet on black/red and increase your stake with every loss.

Let's take 1.30 for example. Which is around 75% chance of winning.
The problem is that bookies already included their margin. The real chance of winning is 70% which means odds of 1.43.
So how are you going to profit in the long run if the odds are against you? You can't recover. Look at the odds for which team is going to kick off, a coin flip, a 50/50 chance. What are the odds? Less than 2. No matter what the bookie profits.

I get you man i used to play on odds over 2.00 for years and it does give outcome in the long run but i am not betting on favorites to win am betting on goals so in a game u study and see its probable to go over 2.5 i play over 0,5. Or when a team more likely to win i play win and draw as resaults to be safe

This is the truth, OP.

Only data science solves this, and Kelly will exploit the odds difference to your advantage. I will not give you more clues..

It makes no difference on the long run if you can't filter the odds without value.
Most of the guys I know who make profit with betting play AHC near a 50/50 chance. Odds between 1.85 - 2.15.

Another thing I want you to think about is the following.
You are risking 100% of your stake for a return of what? Maybe 10% on average?

AHC would be a good way to go , or corners i guess that are always around that margin 1.85 - 2.15
i might consider changing tactic, keep the half kelly bet but go for higher odds

The most important thing is to find a system (betting method and analysis) where you have a steady hit ratio higher than the offered odds. So your average hit rate (50% for example) should be higher than your average played odds (higher than 2).

As soon as you manage to do that you can start to bet money and think about your money management and what stakes to bet.

You really need to do your research because there are a few factors I'm sure you did not consider.
For example if you are going to bet on opening odds, dropping odds minutes before the game starts.
A lot of bookies are going to limit you as soon as you are winnig big.
Every league has its own 'rules'. For example lower leagues in Italy tend to 'fix' games at end of the season, this means two teams play a tie if they are in a comfortable position, both teams won't risk anything.