Would it be dumb to get into Forex trading without much knowledge and just play it safe and buy when something's low and sell when it's high?
I've read the "School of Pipsology" online lessons which are really basic, but that's about it.
The thing is, I don't want to gamble my money, so I assume this would be safer, even if it's just very minor wins or losses. I still spend my time off learning about Forex, but I can't get this idea out of my head that it's a lot more simple than it's made out to be, that it's basically just buying and selling fast and paying attention to charts.
I know this is all utterly retarded but I need someone to tell me I'm wrong and change my mindset. I don't think this is an easy way to make big money, but I do think it's a steady and low-risk way.
Pick any currency pairing today and write down its value. Revisit in the following weeks to see if it has risen in your favour. Often there is a downtrend for years that never breaks even to the initial values, maybe longer. But just try to make PREDICTIONS and see if they would have worked out. That's the best way to check.
Kevin Thompson
>try to make PREDICTIONS and see if they would have worked out
if you could actually do that you'd quite quickly become one of the richest people on the planet... it is rather unlikely for this to work out.
Lincoln Nguyen
When you leave your house every morning you make a prediction that the bus will be there to pick you up in the morning and somehow you are always right. You can successfully make PREDICTIONS. Why the fuck arent you rich? The market works the way. If you know enough about what factors affect the market you can make accurate predictions time and time again but its difficult.
Tyler Martin
Algo trader here, some tips and advices.
>Don't trade manually, you will loss at long term. >Trust but verify, use backtesting tools to learn what patterns are ok. >Then make it algorithms with low risk >Implement it at brokerage firms which allow Social Trading as Darwinex, Alpari PAMM or other ECN social brokers, you'll earn more if people follow you.
Only way to succeed at long term, no psicology (it will kill your account), backtesting and calm.
Oliver Thompson
This sounds dumb as fuck desu and basically a pyramid scheme
John Torres
Why would you parcipate in anything without much knowledge? Your digging your own grave.
Chase Johnson
see if your brokerage firm gives you access first
Juan Torres
Why do you want to trade forex?
How do you think you will make money here? Why?
Juan Turner
Because in a certain way it seems to me as simple as buying and selling currencies at different times thus making extremely small gains if I have some patience.
Also, I'm NEET and from what I can tell this is one of the few ways to actually make money from home that isn't complete BS. It's my dream to make my own money from home, even if at first it would be almost nothing.
Equity trading seems too unpredictable and a lot less appealing to me. I don't like planning things like retirement money. And the commissions are stupid also.
I know I'm uninformed and very new to this, but I don't know where to post about this and ask / be advised.
Isaiah Baker
>Because in a certain way it seems to me as simple as buying and selling currencies at different times thus making extremely small gains if I have some patience.
Why do you think it seems this way? how are you going to buy at the right time and sell at the right time?
Lucas Powell
If you are my refferal only i earn a part of your spread.
It's social trading, nothing more. If you are retarded and don't want to search on google what's about it's not my problem.
John Walker
Forex is all about speed & sticking to your model. Get in and out FAST. People who get wiped out are the people who trade emotionally, not systemically, people who are like, I'll get in, make 5%, now I'm up 5%, it will go higher, I'll stay in, oh shit I got wiped out.
Have your plan, your model, and stick to it, that's what makes you rich, the money you trade is just a way of keeping score. Just do it op, but start small & work your way up, when you find you're up say 60% of the time, then start throwing bigger amounts around.
Logan Baker
If you don't have any knowledge, how the fuck do you know if something is low or high?
Josiah Long
Look at the yearly chart
Aaron Nguyen
I've been studying forex price action for months so dont listen to me I dont know what Im talking about. In my opinion, the way I see forex is that it is rigged and completely manipulated, and its like a casino, a playground of a few elite traders at the central bank's primary dealers. Search on google you can find articles about the traders at the primary dealers of the central banks working to manipulate the markets. It's nothing new, they where using chat rooms and instant messaging, back in the day when they left the open outcry pit for a smokebreak while smoking their cigarette they would agree to make a trade at a certain price and as soon as that trade printed all the stop orders at the level they where targeting where activated and became market orders. This is fundamental to how the markets need to operate. The market makers need to match willing buyers and willing sellers. Thats what the market is and its the only way it works, matching willing buyers and willing sellers. When you buy, that makes you a seller at because some point in the future you have to sell. So when you go long and have a sell stop loss order below then that means you are a willing seller. And some willing buyer needs to be matched with your order, when you sell someone bought it from you. This is fundamentally how the liquidity of the market works. So in everything you should ask yourself "where is the liquidity" because that is where price has more probability of going to.
Austin Hall
no you don't, you take a risk that the bus is there (if you're poor and need to taker busses) but unless you've got some idea of the distribution of bus arrival times then you've got no fucking idea about predicting bus arrival times other than some vague idea that it is mostly on time or often late in bad weather
if you had then yes you could make a prediction about the chance of your bus arriving
this is a far cry from financial data whereby the underlying distributions are continually changing - predicting bus prices doesn't change the model, predicting financial times series then trading that time series changes it... even if you don't trade it other people actively are which means the behaviour evolves and changes rapidly over time... whereas your bus changes only occasionally say due to a gradual increase in motorists or the odd day with bad weather/roadworks
though the main thing I'm getting at is that successful quant trading/systematic trading doesn't involve making predictions but just finding a very small edge and exploiting it over again - people generally can't make decent predictions. HFT guys can in some sense, with limited capacity over a very short timeframe but that is about it. If the founder of Winton capital, managing billions with a massive quant/data science team can't do it then I don't hold out much hope for your recommendation to the other poster.
Seriously if you could make decent predictions in FX you'd become one of the richest people on the planet. You're better off finding some other means of making money like trend following.
Michael Carter
the way I see forex is that it is rigged and completely manipulated, and its like a casino, a playground of a few elite traders at the central bank's primary dealers. Search on google you can find articles about the traders at the primary dealers of the central banks working to manipulate the markets. It's nothing new, they where using chat rooms and instant messaging, back in the day when they left the open outcry pit for a smokebreak while smoking their cigarette they would agree to make a trade at a certain price and as soon as that trade printed all the stop orders at the level they where targeting where activated and became market orders.
It doesn't quite work how you think it does, firstly FX wasn't traded in the pits - you're conflating the interbank FX market with Chicago's futures and options industry.
Secondly those rigging scandals you're reading about aren't related to triggering stops etc.. this isn't a retail bucket shop we're talking about... but the price of certain instruments will depend on the rates available at a certain time - this is when they're 'fixed' as it were. So manipulating the rates at that time can benefit some position they hold.
but you are right to point out that it is a dodgy market - retail traders are going to find it very hard to compete because in reality most of them don't even get access to the main trading venues but at best stay in some little pool of retail traders in some 'ECN' run by a former bucket shop... which still has plenty of structural disadvantages like last look provisions for liquidity providers... or worse still they're still trading at a bucket shop.
Austin Miller
of FFS - first paragraph was meant to be a quote... hope it is obvious to anyone reading
Andrew Campbell
I didnt mean that they traded forex in the pit and I know about the differences between the interbank and futures. These rigging scandals didnt take place at bucketshops. These primary dealers are the banks that actually execute the trades for the central banks when the central bank wants to conduct open market operations to implement monetary policy and manipulate the interest or exchange rates. When I go through the chart and notate every time a key level is swept and then plot the amount by which the level was swept before price rockets the other way and notice that the amount is not random. Also like I said they are trying to facilitate trades by paring willing buyers and willing sellers so they engineer price to facilitate trade and pair orders. I didnt mean that they are trying to inject liquidity by hunting retail stops like a bucketshop. No they dont even see retail orders at the interbank because like you said retail never even leaves the sandbox of the retail shop. They are seeking huge gigantic liquidity, that of the large trend following funds. You can see an example of this in the CFTC reports, not just currency futures, of the commercials making the market and the large speculators taking the other side of their trades. All the retail in the world together wouldnt be able to take the other side of their trade. You are absolutely right that retail is at a huge disadvantage in that they at the interbank level can really see what is going on, the orderflows, the volume hitting the bid and offer, and last look. Even the prime brokers aggregators doent give you the complete view they have at the interbank. Retail in the US doesnt get anywhere near this thanks in part to the regulators, at least outside the US there are retail brokers giving access to feeds which aggregate the large liquidity pools like Currenex.
