Now that gold has reached the lowest low possible - how far will it raise this time?

in march gold can be at 1500$ already

>1000 is the cost of gold production
>it can't fall below that
the cost varies wildly, hundreds of thousands of ounces a year are produced in Brazil for about $20 per ounce. $1k is probably about right in the US and Canada, but only if we include the costs of exploration and development of new mines. The average is also skewed by the fact that gold in North America is a common byproduct of copper and moly mining. So how much did those thousands of ounces cost to produce? By one measure that copper or moly was going to be mined anyways so the gold didn't cost anything. But they don't count it that way. They say "we had to mine 15,000 tons of copper ore to get that ounce of gold so it cost us $x to mine." In reality most mines that produce gold aren't gold mines, and the cost of mining gold varies greatly all over the world, and even from one part of a mine to another.

But even if we pretend gold costs $1k per ounce to produce you aren't accounting for all the gold already in circulation, which is what's actually being traded. What did it cost to produce? More importantly, do historic production costs matter when they were paid for the instant that gold sold? I have gold I bought at $400 an ounce. I probably wouldn't sell it to you for less than $1200, but I could if I wanted. Most gold on the market initially cost less than $20/ounce to produce.

you're right about there being a rush to buy if the price goes below $1k, but that has nothing to do with production costs. That's just what people currently imagine is a very low price for gold.

such a persuasive argument.

when $10b of paper gold is sold suddenly on a day that the bond market is conveniently closed, it is apparent there is no real price discovery in this market. hence--I'm staying out until fundamentals become relevant, anything else is gambling.

Why do people talk about the price of gold when the pricing is so flagrantly manipulated?

>Why do people talk about the price of gold when the pricing is so flagrantly manipulated?
variation of the money illusion where a person believes a commodity has a certain value just because that's what they paid for it.

same reason my dad thinks it costs a nickel to go to the movies.

If that nickel was earned in 1930 and invested, he'd probably be right. I agree with you btw

400 is the same target since 2012

>the lowest low possible

Such concept does not exist.

Also, that chart of yours is showing a clear downtrend, why are you trying to pick a "lowest low" you arbitrarily chose?

>clear downtrend
it was until it hit 1100$ in January

now everyone now the "guaranteed price" for gold is higher than 1100$

it's a speculative market but it won't reach 1100$ this time

Gold will hit $800/ounce within 2 years

Based on.....?

Global deflation.

Once people realise this they will sell their gold for cash.

We ain't ever going to get high economic growth and inflation again unless we have a world war.

Not a chance in hell since most mines operating costs are 7-900/oz

I remember within the last few years that silver fell below production cost which can happen in the current system because the system is rigged and its been documented in court where people have sued the big banks. So yes, it can drop below production costs.