What's going to happen to the ticking time bomb known as North Korea? Will the Koreas merge in our lifetime?
What's going to happen to the ticking time bomb known as North Korea? Will the Koreas merge in our lifetime?
Camden Murphy
Angel Perry
They're not a ticking time bomb. Their military is somewhat strong, while their resources are non-existent. No one is ever going to bother attacking them, because what's the point. It would be a tedious war without any payoff. And North Korea is never going to attack anyone because they know they would be obliterated in the long run. They have no functioning long range missiles or any nuclear warheads so they don't pose a threat to anyone but South Korea.
Reddit has this narrative that every time they're making a lot of noise and declaring war once again, it's their way of begging for food donations without losing face but that's a half truth. It's rather their way of telling people that soon they won't have anything more to lose because they'll cease to function as a state because everyone is starving and so they might as well go out with a bang.
Anyway, nothing is going to happen unless there's a bigger conflict in the area. No one is actually interested in North Korea.
Julian Martinez
This is true.
For the most part, the countries surrounding it stand to lose more than they'd gain if North Korea were to either implode or explode. China really doesn't want a country with US military bases right on their border, and South Korea, despite their talk of being "one people" doesn't want to deal with the huge humanitarian crisis that would insue were they to reunify. And the counties that have the power to affect change in the region (the US and Russia) don't want to pass of China. So with the way things are, North Korea probably isn't going anywhere anytime soon
Aaron Bell
What are the chances of an internal coup in North Korea though? I know it is very difficult to come up with a reasonable answer on that due to the lack of information on the inner circles of the north korean government, but I remember that there were rumours of a coupe a couple of years ago.
Nathan Taylor
Okay, let's assume that coup happens and somebody other than Kim starts ruling the country. Let's forget about legitimacy questions etc. for a while - Pou Jango Duo is now the Glorious Leader and everybody accepts it.
Why do you thing would he change the way it's led?
Ian Morgan
>Why do you thing would he change the way it's led?
If we're playing hypotheticals, lets assume an actually good natured person takes control.
and he makes private talks with the US.
"send us some supplies to make it look like when we're less hard on our people that things get better."
Then when people aren't as starved and have a bit more of free thought, that gets the ball rolling, they do some disarmement, get more food and resources from US, UK, possibly China who is probably a little relieved to not have to deal with a constantly yapping dog now.
And a slow process of getting away from totalitarianism.
Which would probably fail if any of the elites who like life how it is realize what he is doing and tries to coup again.
Which could be avoided if he killed off those kinds of people since it wouldn't look suspicious and put in people who are more like him and want to actually make life better for the North Korean people.
All hypothetical, so none of this really means anything but is fun to think about.
James King
Here are the scenarios that I consider likely (in order)
- NK finally starts to fall apart. China forcibly steps in and puts a new government in place + dumps money and troops into the area. This is because they wish to maintain the buffer state between the US forces in SK and China.
- There's a coup and this causes one of the other scenarios
- The next guy in charge of NK isn't as enthusiastic about the whole "hermit kingdom" shit. He starts to make NK less terrible, much like the way Japan slowly came out of isolation in the 19th century.
- Someone finally flips their shit and there's a huge war. Millions (most North Koreans) die. NK is essentially seized by either China or the US/SK depending on how things pan out.
Aiden Bennett
>obliterated in the long run.
As in week 3
Ian Barnes
Depends on what china does.
Ian Lewis
>If we're playing hypotheticals, lets assume an actually good natured person takes control.
how tho
Sebastian Kelly
Somehow, it doesn't matter because its not real and probably not going to happen.
For the purpose of hypothetical it is just an assumption that it happens.
Brody Diaz
it seems unlikely to me that there would be any good natured people available
that's kinda how it works.
Michael Myers
Hence why I can't give you a how tho answer.
Evan Anderson
But isn't that the point. I thought the "ticking time bomb" was that sooner or later, North Korea is going to collapse in some fashion, and then the can can't be kicked down the road any longer.
Hunter Gray
>no one is actually interested in North Korea
Because the Chinese certainly don't care about the fate of a key buffer state.
Hunter Torres
This
Nice post user.
Joshua Price
Y-you too.
Angel Reed
Even China is back away from North Korea since they've been chimping out so much
Tyler Nelson
North Korea = manlets?
Joshua Rivera
Colton Harris
>They have no functioning long range missiles or any nuclear warheads so they don't pose a threat to anyone but South Korea.
Uhhh
Jose Reed
China will only be able to maintain full-fledged support for North Korea for so long in the face of increasingly negative public opinion. The Chinese public knows that North Korea is constantly embarrassing them on the world stage.
What's more, North Korea has given the US and the South a completely unassailable reason to install THAAD in South Korea. This negatively impacts China's defense interests in a significant way, yet they can hardly raise valid protests when North Korea engages in nuclear saber-rattling every other month.
Jeremiah Hall
joins a prestigious list of pot head smoking countries including:
>Netherlands
>Switzerland
>America
Anthony Nguyen
>PNG
>Uraguay
>Germany etc
Brayden Brown
you guys are so fucking shilled its pathetic
Aaron Lopez
>North Korea has given the US and the South a completely unassailable reason to install THAAD in South Korea.
There are alternative ABMs (like the patriot missile already in South Korea) that can shoot down an Nk missile, but cannot shoot down a Chinese missile farther away.
THAAD pisses off the Chinese because it can shoot down their ICBMs as well, and China purposefully only has 100 or so of them.
The deployment of THAAD is just a US ploy to box China in. There's nothing more to it than that.
The Chinese will respond by building more ICBMs.
Camden Gomez
>much like the way Japan slowly came out of isolation in the 19th century.
That didn't happen because of any internal reasons though. Hint hint, USA.
Luis Ramirez
Oh man I wish I could go to NK to get the Rodman treatment.
Kim: "You haven't fucked bitches until you've fucked these bitches."
Opens up door to a room full of bitches.
"Now to sip vodka out of their clean scrubbed ass cracks."
Leo Anderson
Except THAAD is only capable of shooting down missiles literally aiming at and about to hit SK. So unless China plans to attack SK they need to stop complaining like a little bitch.
Landon Cook
>The deployment of THAAD is just a US ploy to box China in. There's nothing more to it than that.
No kidding. Like I said, the problem is that North Korea provides the US with plausible deniability. Obviously the systems are aimed at deterring China.
Nolan Clark
>Except THAAD is only capable of shooting down missiles literally aiming at and about to hit SK.
[citation needed]
THAAD is capable of flying into China and hitting missiles early in flight.
If China launched its ICBMs at the US, they pass over NK/SK/Jilin.
Use your fucking brain.
Well, all they do is make China have to support NK more/or build more ICBMs.
It's a ploy in a dangerous game.
Landon Green
>Well, all they do is make China have to support NK more
This part is certainly questionable, though you're not wrong about the ICBMs.
Supporting NK is what placed China into the situation of having THAAD in SK in the first place.
Jordan Clark
China is their ally, not their enemy. And they're not an enemy because like I said, it's not worth it. Maintaining the status quo is much more beneficial to China for now.
But another user raised a good point by saying China might change its politics if they lose the support of the public.
They aren't going to collapse as long as the status quo gets maintained though.
Christopher Kelly
>They aren't going to collapse as long as the status quo gets maintained though.
They said that about the USSR as well. They've got a shaky economy at best, and nobody really knows what is going on inside the heads of that military junta, but they definitely don't like being dependent on the outside for all of their fuel and a lot of their technical expertise.
Assuming long term stability does not seem to be indicated.
Angel Kelly
>The next guy in charge of NK isn't as enthusiastic about the whole "hermit kingdom" shit. He starts to make NK less terrible, much like the way Japan slowly came out of isolation in the 19th century.
Except that resulted in the ultranationalist military assassinating civilian leaders, seizing power, and launching an unbelieveably stupid war with the U.S.
Nolan Myers
Fuck off
Anthony Long
Not an argument.
Joshua Long
>[citation needed]
thediplomat.com
>Yet, while extremely capable, THAAD interceptors in South Korea pose no direct threat to China. THAAD is a terminal system, meaning that it can only intercept missiles in their final phase of flight with a maximum intercept range of about 200 kilometers. In essence, the only Chinese missiles that a THAAD battery on the peninsula could intercept would be those aimed at South Korea.
>THAAD is capable of flying into China and hitting missiles early in flight.
Ignoring that it can only stop missiles in terminal flight, not 'early flight' and has no ability to stop anything flying OVER Korea, THAAD isn't even capable of covering fucking Seoul, let alone firing anything into China. Have you done any research on this subject at all?
John Garcia
>implying I'm capable of replying to the correct post on phone
See
Grayson Campbell
Enclave here, why don't we eradicated these North Korean in nuclear hell fire?