LMAOing at ur life

>claims to be guru
>picks indy

>gambling is immoral

I'm part of a non gambling nfl betting game and I'm doing well but as soon as real money is involved I'd tank. Protip. Bet against the Eagles

I had Houston wrote down in my phone. Don't know why the fuck I changed it.

If you see pic related, had I had stayed with Houston like I was going to, my card would have won completely.

I'm in DE. We always bet against the Birds.

Clutch players? Get out of here you square fuck.

Fucking goober - you will ALWAYS maximise your gains using Kelly. :-)

Kelly is based on objective advantage - problem is what you feed the equation when you use it for sports.

I told you weeks ago how Kelly must be combined with other methods before it's reliable in sports....

lol. Kelly will put you on a road to ruin.

>take advantage of sports betting
4/10 bait

>buy an xbox
>buy Madden 17
>have computer run numerous simulations
>use those figures to see if teams can beat the spread

Even if you picked houston, you still lost on the lions.

>fucking NEET permavirgins

I really hope you were trying to be ironic OP

Which was?

Am feeding it picks with odds from 1.25 to 1.45 mostly Goals and corners and most of the times picks like over .5 or 1.5 that can cash out well early than the 90 minutes of the match and move on to the next
Its the only "system" that has me going upwards

>laughs at robinhood NEETs
>expects to win a 6 team parlay

I am taking the bait here since other people can benefit from your stupidity. Kelly is a perfect system with no flaws; as it is based on objective odds. Please learn second grade math.

You are literally raping the Kelly criterion. What are your odds based on? Gut feeling? I told you how to beat the system last time, but apparently you were too cocky to pay attention.

Where can I find a database with historical sports statistics?

You're on to something here, mate. Keep asking the right questions and I will guide you in the right direction.
Check out Kaggle.

I am btw. I make a week what most people make a month wageslaving.

Also, proof. This is last week's earnings - probs around $6.000

Gut ?? no man am taking the european leagues that i have the most knowledge on and then study each match from a lot of different sources. Now your keep talking about statistical analysis and thats something i cover on my "study" of each match along with form/news/injuries/weather/and more.
Relying only on the statistics of the matched for 20-30 years ago is something that doesnt "cover" me and i will never do.
Also when i have my "proof" ready i will show u One by One my matches and the results of my system with profit and loss. Showing a balance is mostly idiotic.

what number 365 account is that?

Which sports are you betting on? I've never believed you could make money with sports bets.

AHHHHH yes. Pump and dump sports betting.

The new shitcoin, stockfag, bullshit.

Gambling has nothing to do with /biz you worthless fucking cocksucker...

I made $1200 off betting on CS:GO a year and a bit back. Those were good times.

Share tips and what sports/leagues do you bet on? Fellow Scandifag here too.

>implying this is not a gut feeling

>sports betting on Veeky Forums
Can retards who have to rely on gambling and luck please leave?

You sound like a complete amateur who only discovered gambling last week.

>i will guide you
>hasn't posted in over a day

well lads it was good while it lasted

Damn, chill mate. Unlike you guys, I actually have work to do.
Also, I DID guide him in the right direction. If you guys are willing to put in the work, I'll be more than happy to assist.

What do you want to ask me?

Read your own response again. First sentence in and you're already contradicting yourself.
You. will. lose. money.

Mostly football. And always half Kelly. I cannot predict everything, but I always take precautions and manage my bankroll properly.

I'm a poorfag NEET doing research on betting sports, so far I'm interested in matched betting but it seems to be dead in my country but I'm still trying to find ways to open up banks in UK despite being Scandinavian. Would you mind telling me what to bet on and explain why for a while so I can learn from someone with more experienced? Please ._.

So, matched betting is pretty much only beneficial if you already have quite a bit of capital. I do not think you're suited for it, sorry. It can get messy real quick if you are unlucky and do not have enough money to "bail out".

Also, you run the risk of betting sites canceling your bets, refunding your money and closing your account. So keep that in mind if you want to pursue it anyways.

As to what you CAN do, it depends. Are you into any particular sport? Do you know players and teams well enough to score them? I mean, you do not have to, but it is a clear advantage when you are first starting out.

If you have no idea what you are doing, I would actually recommend that you look into already "working" prediction models, algorithms that are online.

While they mostly suck, they are still better than you.

Yes, I know. I lurk /sp/ since it was made but I don't know any players personally if that's what you want to know. I was thinking about betting $200 on strong teams vs shit teams in world cup qualifiers for football and keep doing it but how money can I earn that way? If anything at all?

This is a sure way to lose money - do not ever do this. There is no such thing as a sure win, and the amount you risk versus the gains you make will never ever be worth it.

Also $200 must be a lot for a poorfag neet. Why would you ever risk that kind of money.

no gambler has ever become a billionaire and you know why.

better off makign a n internet casino op. real profit there.

This is very true.

How? Germany vs some African country, can't lose to that.

Well, if you cannot lose that, what bookie would do anything above odds 1.00?

Say bookie gives you 1.05, and you are betting $1.000 on the match.

You are risking a thousand dollars to make fifty. That doesn't seem crazy to you?

Unless there's AT LEAST an objective 95,238% that you win, you should never take it. Even at this point, you should not even bet 0,001% of your $1.000.

Even if there is an objective 99% chance that you win, you should not probably bet around 80% AT MAX.

This is pure math, no bias.

You should probably bet around 80% at max*

Tell me how. Amerifat here and I bet on the sports I know. I want a profit and to make it like you do and have no problem taking the gut feeling and personal bias out of it.

Thing is, you don't punt with sport betting..you have to find deals between exchanges and profit of the difference. (E.G Buying on offer on betfair at 1.05 - laying on smarkets on offer at 1.02 - 0.3 profit which scales nicely with amount of money inputted

Thing is what, goober?

Arbitrage betting WILL result in a guaranteed win (Read: an objective 100% chance to win); so of course you should bet your whole bankroll.

Even a second grader can tell that arbitrage is a perfect system - this is not groundbreaking LOL.

Tell me your process.

do i need to know a lot about sports to win or is it all just math?

so who else here is /draftkingz/

im up 1000 on nascar and golf...down 200 on football and baseball..even on mma......i dont touch soccer or nigball

Well, actually I did pretty well too betting. I'm a radiography but use match betting to bring in more money to invest with or just blow. This month I'm up about £220

I do arb betting too. I did one today, I backed a team with £80 and layed with about £87, resulting in about £4 profit. Sometimes Ill do this several times a day. It depends on how motivated I am, which usually depends on if I am saving for a specific item or car or holiday or whatever. If not I just invest.

Statistics and heuristics

Great to hear, mate. Keep up the good work!

>Check out Kaggle.
Very nice. Thank you.

>While you fags do your meme gambling I will do my own superior meme gambling! My next superior investment will be in some golden kneepads!

No problem, mate. If you need anything, I'll be here.

Need more info.

On what specifically?

>gambling and luck

Isn't that what stock trading essentially comes down?

>How? Germany vs some African country, can't lose to that.

What an odd example to use. Germany won the last world cup, and the only team they didn't beat was an African one. Drew 2-2 with Ghana.

Arb betting u back and lay before the match start (hoping for odd drop?) or back before or at the start and lay during the match hoping for odd drop?

I used to bet on football ("soccer") and made around 150 euros or so. A lot of betting website gives you a refund up to 100 euros if your first bet is a lose. You can do bets on combined results to have a better odds. Or place bets on "less than X goals", "X goals or more", "X will score" to have good odds.
Also follow news and teams current trends

You should start a Kelly discord

Another week of 14/15 pools olg on football. My 4th one this year..

Thank you.

>he doesn't live exclusively from betting money

Yeah, looks totally legit. I make that in a couple of weeks - unless you shower in oil, I do not believe it.

Oh never mind my comment, sorry. I thought you made that a day. My bad, not reading carefully enough, lol.

how many 365's you got through this year?