Let's talk about Automation

No offense to the Truckerfags but I think they might be a bit biased on this. How long will it take for commercial trucks to be fully automated? Not just long-haul semis, but other working trucks like hydrovacs, garbage trucks, mixers, buses, etc. And when this happens, will the drivers' job be completely eliminated or will there still be a role for human operators? There are are lots of different opinions, some techfags think that all professional drivers will be out of work within 10 years, others think it will take decades, while some people (mostly drivers in denial probably) think that it will never happen. I'm guessing it's somewhere in the middle. Perhaps even once all commercial trucks are programmed with automated driving systems it will be more like an advanced cruise control which will still require a driver sometimes? Maybe we will at least need real people to accompany the freight, sign invoices, etc?

I really want to be a professional driver and I will sign up for trucking school on Monday morning if someone can convince me that there will be work for me for the next 30 years at least.

>hydrovacs, garbage trucks, mixers, buses
Never going to happen.

All of those require humans at some point except buses. Trains and light rails have conductors, so empty buses will always have that fat black lady at the helm taking a ridiculous amount of money in for the rest of her life for it.

You still need someone in that truck doing the task of it once it gets to location, so why not reduce your liability a bit having someone trained to operate it in case of emergency.

There is also stuff that is actually years out like off-road stuff, oilfield and logging and the like.

pin to pin pulling walmart trailers is dead for humans within 10 years. the more complex stuff never reallly, since you'll still need a meatbag to do the job.

techbros who have never been in a truck think they can program a better trucker just like techbros that have never been on a farm think they can grow food better in a 40 story city farm.

Automation will never happen because of how business works. What happens if anything goes wrong? The low tier bottom of the barrel employee gets shit canned. If robots cause the problems, there would be no one to blame but owners and engineers.

Being a city bus driver would kick ass. Those people are as lazy, rude, and incompetent as fuck, but they'll get away with it forever because they have a great union.

nope

Are you
1. An Immigrant
2. A minority
3. A woman
4. Disabled
5. A Veteran

If you're not at least one of those you cannot get a government job without an in.
Working for the postal service is really the best government gig. You get to retire after 15 years and get your retirement pension for the rest of your life.
So you get a job in the postal service at 18, and by 33 you can retire and get another job and bring in two incomes.

Railroad jobs are also cushy as fuck. Rail road insurance is also the best in the country.

So do you guys think that truck driving is a decent career choice?

If you don't mind the being away from home part and what it does to your body, yes.

dream on, before you get memed on

That is the first job to disappear with driverless technology.

>long-haul semis

Gone in 10 years, at least in the south, or for non-critical shipments. It'll have to be a good AI indeed to make it through a NE blizzard. I have a feeling most AI trucks would default to pulling over and stopping until the inclement weather has passed and the roads are driveable again. Not good if you need something there next day without fail, or don't want to cause a massive clusterfuck on the interstate. Probably be outlawed during snow season, but usable in the summer months at least.

>hydrovacs

Don't know what this is. If you mean a street sweeper, they'll be around for a while. Not enough labor cost to invest in automation. Same with the tiny trucks that plow the sidewalks. As soon as someone sells a reasonably priced AI though, they're also gone. It's not hard to program a truck to follow a set path with the blade down. With any luck plows will get automated out too.

>garbage trucks

Not until they have a mobile detachable unit that can open parking garages to get the bins stored inside out and into the truck. So probably not for a while.

>mixers

Fucking never. Same with construction dump trucks. Fully three quarters of what these guys do on a construction site would trip the safety lock out in an AI. Mixers regularly back up to within a foot or two of a 10' deep hole on uncertain ground to make a pour, and trying to direct a computer around a lift, 10 guys trying to unload a truck, three other dumps and an excavator would require far, far more investment into software than it would be worth. Remote control would be a good idea, but the drivers are generally too dumb to figure out elementary electronics anyway.

>buses

Soon, but not as soon as long haul trucks. Unions will block it, and the AI has more to deal with, such as how to kick an unpaying customer off without killing them. Also have to deal with traffic, and based on what I see around here, often intimidating other cars out of the way to make a turn.

our garbage trucks don't need that dude who's at the back anymore

everyone just has to line up the boxes now and the truck will hook it up like those big industrial ones.

having to correct the boxes is a problem that can be solved (or just ignored since it's the owner's fault).

Self driving cars already work. They drive better than we do. Drones can fly just fine. The only thing stopping this from happening is legal bullshit.

Amazon warehouses are already fully automated.

People who think any sort of human logistics won't be gone within the next 20 years are kidding themselves.

I hate to be that guy, but I almost cannot wait to humanity's collective stutter-shock when this happens. Especially the "muh coal jobs" muh daddy's job is waiting for me" idiots that don't see times are changing.

...

planes have autopilot yet require people in the cockpit
stay btfo atheists

Planes also don't use autopilot all the time. Not to mention, at this point it's more of a humanity issue...people like seeing their pilot as they board, people like knowing there's both a human and a person to correct the failures of the other.

>tfw this post just reminded me I have a better chance of flying drones than being aircrew in the Air Force

>one picture of a wreck
>versus the stats that self driving cars overwhelmingly outperform human drivers in terms of safety
>the roads would already be safer if we released what we had today
So are you gonna accept reality or just keep doing what you're doing and complain when it curb stomps you for laying there and waiting?

...

>don't see times are changing.
seriously what the fuck am I supposed to do if I'm already 25. Go back to school?

>automated trucks begin rolling out
>one isolated incident where it hits and kills a family of four or some shit
>protests shut the whole thing down
If you expect anything else, you're in for a surprise. They'll only work when it's like Irobot, where every car is automated and hooked up to the grid, so they simultaneously know where every other car is and their path.

>One picture justifies every automotive incident for the past 100+ year

I wont say that it's never too late, but realistically I think you have til age 35 to get your shit together career-wise. Unless you've done something retarded like have children.

>the stats that self driving cars overwhelmingly outperform human drivers in terms of safety
would you care to cite some sources here?

>thinking their is anything wrong with going back to school at 25, 35 or 45,

You're aren't going to make it.

There are immigrants legal and illegal that will pass you economically.

This. Just go for a career where humans will always be needed. That's one of the reasons I'm trying to join the military after college. Now is not the time to have kids unless you're really financially stable..set yourself up for the depression to come

kek, too true

My legal immigrant dad went to school when he was 46 here in America, is about to get his PhD. Works for the government, nice cushy job, 6 figures.

I don't say this to be a dickhead or to tell you you're not gonna make it, , but if you're not willing to do whatever to make it to that next level, you really won't...especially if your concerns start with thinking 25 is "too old" to sit in a college classroom

>Just go for a career where humans will always be needed.

Plumbing is my second choice after trucking. There is zero chance of it being automated. It's hard as fuck to get an apprenticeship though.

back over the water you go, muhammad

automation is a meme fampai. believe it or not, the talent pool for the manufacturing industry is ankle deep. there are very few companies who can actually afford the latest and greatest in automation technology and the ones who can are being held hostage by the very, very few operators/maintainers who have kept up to speed in their respective industries. pic related. there are felons with GED's that are dictating production schedules just because they can operate pic related. they command a very handsome wage as well.

ehhhhh

bls wage data on machinists and millwrights and such doesn't make it look all that great

>and the ones who can are being held hostage by the very, very few operators/maintainers
also held hostage by manufacturers of those machines which routinely break on purpose and require a team of technicians to be flown in from overseas to work on it for several days, at the cost of the machine owner

>>versus the stats that self driving cars overwhelmingly outperform human drivers in terms of safety
>guys 15 driverless cars crashed this year! there were 100,000 driver-crashed this year! ignore that there are only about 20 driverless cars on the road, that means nothing!

>machinists and millwrights
yeah, thats because they are rebranding/repackaging the job definitions in order to attract the younger generation. "applications technician" sounds better than machinist. machinist is meant to be those old fuckers still running knee mills or being literal meat robots that plug parts into CNC machines.

all the money is in computer shit, which the geezers can't keep up with.

programming a toolpath has more in common with a CS major than a machinist nowadays. the only thing that automation has done is raise the skill floor.

All the info I've seen is per mile, not total number of accidents, do you have links to the studies you are sarcastically mocking?

>Human with a safety switch and manual overrides
>paid 0.50 an hour because he can also do ten other jobs while "observing" his post

>require a team of technicians
quads of truth. those technicians make fucking bank.

Working trucks will be unlikely to be automated any time soon. If they need someone on hand to load/unload/operate them, why not have them drive it as well? Why spend money on sensors?

Buses can just be automated easily. All it takes is painting the lines again.

Long-distance trucking will be the first to be automated, at least for the majority of megacarrier steering wheel holders. Owner/operators and specialist loads will hand on, possibly relying on the truck to guide itself most of the time.
I'd like to see how an autotruck will handle going up and down gradients, though.

Taxis? First to be replaced. Again, specialists like London cabbies will hang on; they provide a service other than just driving (the inane babble and tourist information), and have knowledge that a computer system just can't keep up with. Your average minicabber is out of business, though.

School run? Automated and safer, and mommy doesn't even have to go with the kidsies.
Highway commute through jammed traffic? Automation takes over and the jam clears itself because nobody's being a dick.

Shut up Ethan. Your opinion is invalid because you're a moron.

I'd like to see a computer drive a 200ton road train 1700km across the nullarbor

Huh? I'm a W(Argentian)hite American that was born here. What are you talking about?

Yeah no you don't want to be an RPA operator, enlisted or officer.

ROTC and try for a rated slot my man.

t. Cyber nonner

I think we'd have to see a significant shift in how those automated vehicles are supported and the infrastructure surrounding them before full automation could be achieved, but it absolutely can. I think 10 years would be a stretch, but I can see the number of professional driving jobs having seriously diminished 20 years from now.

Just to put it into perspective, I started as a professional driver on mining sites a little over 5 years ago, in that time all of the trucks have been converted/replaced with fully automated or remotely controlled vehicles.

Here in Australia the bulk of our residential garbage pickup could easily be performed by automated vehicles, as it is though it's a one man job...so it's probably not worth the investment just yet.

Taxis/uber could again easily be replaced with automated vehicles, but I suspect they would have to be custom built or specially modified without any form of direct traditional cabin control to stop people trying to steal them.

Courier/Van drivers could potentially be replaced, BUT that's one of those jobs where the driver does a LOT of manual labour loading/unloading the van constantly and lots of on foot deliveries into buildings etc So if it were to become automated you would see smaller one off packages being delivered by drones and larger loads being loaded/unloaded by third parties at the depot and destination.

Urban Semi Truck deliveries, again a bit of a mixed bag, trucks delivering pallets of groceries to supermarkets could easily be automated and I suspect they'll be among the first as they're already at a stage where the truck drivers themselves aren't legally allowed to even help with the loading/unloading of the vehicle, they are there to drive the truck and nothing more, but there would have to be drastic changes to the areas in which the trucks load/unload as automated vehicles as they currently are would struggle immensely navigating tight carparks etc

cont..

Long haul Semi Trucks will probably be early adopters of automation, not within city limits, but especially in the more remote parts of Australia, but they will be remotely monitored and controlled.

Buses will be among the first to be partially automated, set routes, set stops. Without a doubt the easiest to convert and setup a remote control office for.

Postal Delivery, this one I can't see changing any time soon for general suburban delivers, there's simply too much manual labour/unknown quantities. But large offices, apartment buildings etc that already have their mail delivered to a central location could easily adopt drones and automated vehicles.

tfw becoming one of those technicians

>Just go for a career where humans will always be needed.
i am considering pharmacy because i am too dumb for medical school.

can I feel safe? The dispensing part can be automated but the consulting can't really, right? I mean if there'll be an AI sophisticated enough to interpret (not just detect) a bunch of the drug interactions / conditions within my lifetime, then 99% of jobs out there will be gone.

Dude, a lot of Pharmacies here in Aus are already automated.

You have a doctors appointment, they determine whatever, that goes on your record.

Then you head to a pharmacy, line up, swipe your medical card, it gives you an electronic card. you go and wander around for a bit whilst a machine picks the prescription, the card buzzes to notify you that it's ready, you wander up, swipe the card, grab your prescription, put the electronic card back and away you go.

There are still Pharmacists there for general retail purchases and customer help, but 90% of it seems to be fully automated here now.

Not the case with all pharmacies mind you, but the bigger ones are like that already.