/4ccg/ - Getting Hyp Edition

yeah that's my bad, I'll look into getting some help and hopefully have them on the mid cup aesthetics page in time to be added before the first match

since people were posting these, just got this done. will be in midcup aesthetics soon

...

Say: "Hey, look there!
It's >rape scoring in 90+!"

The things you discover by accident.

5/5 super offensive makes the keeper join in during late corners? That used to be a pretty common thing.

I'm more interested in that spooky phantom body under the ref.

Can wait for /mlp/ to get a GK 90'+ goal

bepis

>rape

Thats a shadow, the true self

/mu/ 8(7) 1-3 13(8) /gd/
/e/ 6(4) 1-2 6(3) /v/
/w/ 3(2) 1-2 10(6) /h/
/u/ 6(3) 1-1P 5(2) /vr/
/int/ 11(5) 2-3 3(3) /an/
/vp/ 2(1) P1-1 5(2) /toy/
/adv/ 8(5) 1-2 3(2) /r9k/
/sp/ 2(0) 0-1 6(5) /n/

/gd/ 4(2) 0-2 9(5) /v/
/h/ 9(5) 1-2 3(2) /vr/
/an/ 7(6) 2-1 6(3) /vp/
/r9k/ 10(6) 3-1 9(3) /n/

/v/ 8(7) 3-5 16(10) /vr/
/an/ 3(2) 1-3 11(6) /r9k/

/v/ 8(6) 1-3 10(7) /an/

/vr/ 6(4) 2-1 7(5) /r9k/

Autistic test cup knockouts

perfect

Believe in /f/

2-3-5 is elite

>Two stars on Best
>The Twilight i-Pod tucked in the hat
>90+5 on /m/
All it's missing is Sanic holding a fanfiction with one of the chapter titles on it

>/vr/ killing /u/
>vidya derby semis

please happen

>page 9

Delicious snaggletooth

Requesting the lamprey edit

why is murderous miko not reimu?

sirs new years comic was pretty weak this year

but we cant blame him, he doesnt browse fit anymore

Why is Reimu always so upset

merc confirmed

She is
danbooru.donmai.us/posts/973916

May not be a great image since it doesn't have her signature colors. I wanted to use the panel from the manga with her killing the fortune teller, but I was afraid it wouldn't show right at such a small resolution

thought the ear frills were Ran ears in that grey/brown colouring in the thumbnail

i stand corrected

She wants donations

She relaxes once in a while

Reminder that Reimu killing the fortune teller was both her duty and a good thing for Gensokyo.

Her life is just fucking empty user
Nobody visits her shrine
Nobody ever gives donations except that one person who slips some in every now and then so Reimu doesn't fucking kill herself out of despair
Cirno is insufferable
Her temple is ramshackle
She's called upon to solve the darnest fucking problems

The mangas show she's good friends with Marisa. She also hangs out with Kasen and Kosuzu a lot, though they aren't really her friends. She also has 3 cute fairies to beat up if she's bored.

>Page 9

Friendly reminder

B-but she does

M A D M A N

STOP

Just finished reading the Winter script lads

Alright, just finished adding transparencies to most of the team's portraits.

How does it look now guys? Does it check out?

How many points does /mlp/ win the final by?

they intentionally tank so they can use Spring to pad stats, and therefore don't play in the final

Looks good

>page 9

BANTI Just like the Flacons

Gardivoir Paizuri shoulda been Stimpy with a pan flute desu

Yeaaaaah, but I like titties more.

Rate team potraits

1. teams that have them
9001. teams that don't have them

On related note, a list of non-teams in Winter, STILL lacking in even an attempt at portraits:
>/adv/
>/an/
>/asp/
>/b/
>/e/
>/mu/
>/n/
>Veeky Forums
>/out/
>/soc/
>/v/
>/vr/
>/w/
Come the fuck on now.

We're attempting. We have pictures. They're just not transparent and in the game.

dunno about rating them all but of the ones I've seen so far /m/'s have definitely been the most impressive

im gay

>yfw testing desperately so that you don't fucking suck in Winter

youtube.com/watch?v=T0_zzCLLRvE

>>tfw when you're team's finally good and you don't want to crash back down immediately

>game is at the very least 50% RNG
>people still waste dozens of hours testing
There's no point in to be that invested in a dice roll competition

1. /myteam/
2-18. /otherteams/
19. /yourteam/
9001. /nonteams/

Only managers of failed teams think this way

soc got 9 points the last two cups without testing senpai
earn the right to be elite bro also did I mention that I just got five chicks' digits typing this post out

Post YFW you're listening to music and /yourteam/'s goalhorn starts playing

me too thanks

>mfw I want to promote out of the group stage just so I can take the next cup off

...

Only delusional egomaniacs think otherwise.

>Why try when /mlp/ has so many autistic testers, there's no point!
>Testing doesn't do anything so why test?
4ccg just wants am excise not to do any work desu

If testing didn't matter why are some managers consistently good

>set up tactic that will obviously counter other team
>"this should be fine and it'll never concede to them besides any spaghetti"
>lose 2-0 due to two spaghettis
Well at least I can predict things

Luck. There aren't more teams on hot streaks than would be expected in a random environment.

The cup is 50% tactics 50% luck
If you run a setup that is hot garbage it'll get shit on for sure, but running an amazing tactic is still flawless due to the nature of the diceroll

The reason teams like Veeky Forums and /mlp/ become cup winners in recent years is because they have good tactics with managers that know what they are doing, but that can only get them so far
You can't win a cup with bad tactics neither can you win a cup with bad luck, you need both

So testing matters to an extent to get those good tactics set up, but the rest is up to fate

I'm not testing much this cup so we can see the effects of that compared to previous cups

>this should be fine
>doesn't score
yeah I can't wait to play against your sorry ass

So testing does matter

so you ARE just too lazy to test, and making excuses.

No, I just don't care anymore

Suppose the cup is entirely random. This means that every team has a 1 in 60 chance of winning a given elite cup. Since in reality teams die for periods of time, let's say it's a consistent 1 in 48 (a full elite plus a full regular babby). This also means the probability of any team winning two stars is ((1/48)^2)*n*48 with n being the amount of cups ran. (probability of two stars for any individual team for the given number of cups multiplied back out across each team).

I want to see on average how it would take for a team to randomly win a second star, so I set this equal to 0.5. It comes out to 24 cups before you'd expect to see a second star more often than not.

We've seen not one but two teams do this within 11 elite cups, so either we're living out an outlier scenario or there are other factors in play (aka: it's not all random).

...

>or there are other factors in play (aka: it's not all random).
Well yeah, one of the teams was cheating.

even ignoring the fact that /sp/ only played other df teams in situations where they'd already advanced, you're still saying that the outcome can be significantly influenced by human behavior.

if it was all random dragongate wouldn't have mattered

Not to mention /wg/ and /m/ having two cup wins if you include babbies

Your math is defective for a number of reasons. First, it's leaving out the fact that as the number of champions increases, the chance that there is a repeat increases. It might take "Team X" 24 cups on average to win twice, but that ignores what all the other teams are doing in the meantime. The time before you would expect ANY team to win a second cup is much lower than that.
Second, the number of functional teams was much lower than 48 in the early cups.
Third, given that you've won a cup you automatically start in the top 32 for the next cup.

>it's leaving out the fact that as the number of champions increases, the chance that there is a repeat increases. It might take "Team X" 24 cups on average to win twice, but that ignores what all the other teams are doing in the meantime. The time before you would expect ANY team to win a second cup is much lower than that.
no, the odds of team X winning it twice are ((1/48)^2)*n. You missed the part where I multiplied it back out by 48.
>Second, the number of functional teams was much lower than 48 in the early cups.
And much higher at points (it's 54 every time there's a megababby), so it evens out.
>Third, given that you've won a cup you automatically start in the top 32 for the next cup.
This is the one thing inaccurate about it, but over a long timeframe your starting position is essentially random between babby and elite so it becomes even for every team.

>test finishes 0-0
>3(0) - 0(0)
God I hate this game

>0-1 3(0) 6(5) 58% 42%

I don't understand what is good or bad anymore.

Okay, your math is right, but there's something wrong in the way you're thinking about it.

After 24 cups if you've had no repeats, the NEXT cup has a 50:50 chance of a repeat. Every cup after that will more likely than not have a repeat. But that doesn't mean that you were unlikely to have a repeat champion in ALL the cups before that.

cup 1:
chance of a repeat champion: 0/48

cup 2:
chance of a repeat champion: 1/48 = 2.08%

cup 3:
chance of a repeat:
2/48 = 4.17%

cup 4:
3/48 = 6.25%

cup 5:
4/48 = 8.33%

cup 6:
5/48 = 10.42%

cup 7:
6/48 = 12.50%

cup 8:
7/48 = 14.58%

cup 9:
8/48 = 16.67%

cup 10
9/48 = 18.75%

cup 11
10/48 = 20.83%

So taking the inverse, the chance of having a new champion every time is
(47/48)*(46/48)*(45/48)...*(30/48) = 28.94%

So after 11 cups there is only a 29% chance to have had no repeat champions. So we are more likely to have a repeat than not, and having a second is only mildly improbable (keep in mind no one ever argued PES is completely random, only largely).

Reminder that /mlp/ was is a Dragonfag team.

only 1/18th

...

I miss Veeky Forums

so do i

TESLA YOU BULGARIAN BUFFOON

God I can't wait to retire after this cup