/Econ/ Economics General #3: Trade Policy in 2017

This thread is for a discussion of economics. Politics belongs on

Q: Does the rise of populist movements in America and Europe threaten international trade and, if so, is this a good or bad thing?

cnbc.com/2017/01/09/alibaba-to-discuss-expansion-plans-with-trump-company-aims-to-create-1-million-us-jobs-over-the-next-5-years.html

cnbc.com/2017/01/09/apple-seeks-to-expand-manufacturing-in-arizona.html

cnbc.com/2017/01/10/ryan-trump-team-discuss-border-tax-at-capitol-hill-meeting.html

Other urls found in this thread:

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-13/pemex-so-cash-starved-it-s-selling-little-league-baseball-field
dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-4116870/Pemex-sells-Maya-crude-U-S-West-Coast-time-2008.html
youtube.com/watch?v=o3VhSQe_oKg
aeaweb.org/journals/
businessinsider.com/2009/1/peter-schiffs-clients-got-hosed-this-year-too).
wired.com/2015/02/scientists-wrong-time-thats-fantastic/
twitter.com/NSFWRedditGif

Discussion does not have to be limited to the question in the thread. I just put those in to get a discussion starting. Feel free to post any econ or econ-related investing questions in this thread.

Why is Krugman such a fucking blatant partisan hack?

Because he runs the NYT column. Krugman makes all Keynesians look bad. He says that deficits don't matter under Obama and then says that deficits suddenly matter under Trump. He's full of smugness.

I disagree with Keynesianism, but outside of Krugman, I can have an intelligent discussion with one.

he makes some good points
only thing he doesn't realise is that republicans don't want a deficit still, they don't want to spend on building and infrastructure
it's only trump that wants that

This is very true. I'm a bit dubious of the whole exuberance after the Trump election, even as a Trump supporter myself, because i feel a lot of it is driven by the expected fiscal stimulus.

At best, he'll pass out a tax credit for infrastructure investment or something. When Trump has to focus on getting McConnell and Ryan to support his immigration agenda first and foremost, you can expect that to go. They're already discussing a border tax, which makes such policies even more unlikely.

Larry Summers is the same way. He's spent years shilling for a massive infrastructure program and as soon as Trump proposes one he slams it as "economic creationism," whatever the fuck that means

That border tax is probably one of the worst ideas I've ever heard. I was tepid toward Trump. Didn't mind him except for his dreadful trade policies. If the border adjustment tax goes through, inflation will kick up like no ones business. Pair that with a tax holiday on overseas earnings and the USD will REALLY make a day of it.

Yeah I agree. I'm not denying China doesn't do stuff like IP theft, but dealing with it by using tariffs sets a dangerous precedent for the international trade system.

What do you think are the odds of the policy actually getting passed? I assumed the House would stop Trump fiscal stimulus and give him immigration, but trade seems to be in the middle. It's a defining issue for Trump, up there with immigration, but the Republicans in the House and Senate are ardent defenders of free trade.

Pseudoscience belongs on Not only can macroeconomists not form any kind of consensus, but macroeconomic theory does not hold any predictive power, nor has it ever. Macroecon fails both tests for being considered a science and is literally just "here are some opinions mixed with a few irrelevant numbers that me and my financial sponsors happen to believe."