Student debt MUST be in a bubble, shit is so out of control, it has to burst soon.
All these loans to the degenerates who will absolutely never pay them back. Couple that with the impending millennial "resistance" to the government, and the word sub-prime doesn't even begin to describe these loans There must be a way to profit.
How do we short it?
you have one hell of a good point. Too bad I have no clue how to do it.
My loans are deffered down to $0 / month ;^)
No really, they still send me the bill every month for $0.
Thanks, wish this board had more discussions. I should have put more >CAPSLOCK and Belfort pics in my OP.
Does anybody know if student loans are sold to invenstment bankers in the same way that mortgage backed securities were?
My understanding is groups of mortgages would be sold to an investment group as CDO's, and these CDO's are what was shorted against. Are student loans grouped together in the same manner that mortgages are?
>All these loans to the degenerates who will absolutely never pay them back.
Most of those students will subsequently be in the workforce for decades, and will earn a higher than average amount, so what makes you think they'll never pay the loans back?
How can it be higher than average when everyone gas a degree?
How do you do this? I only make $14.40 an hour and still pay $75 a month.
He lives in Europe.
is this for real?
buy their debt... those lenders eventually get the money one way or the other. they will just take your entire tax return each year.
interesting
it can be cause of the next crisis
But a lot are dropouts that never get a degree or if they do its in east german literature and they work at Starbucks.
OP what references do you have for this theory? If it has some weight to it ill actually look into it
Idk Student loan debt is pretty much a slave collar. They will pursue you til death, garnish your wadges, your retirement, etc. Just no escape. Not the same as the housing bubble i don't think
No I dont
I forget the exact name of it but its an income based plan offered by Nelnet which manages my loans. I make $15 / hour full time
The downside is that in ~30 years my loans are forgiven, but it all counts as "taxable income" that year
you really did your research did ya
Yeah for the first however many months after you graduate. After that you'll have to start paying.
But... its been 5 years...
Thats the general grace period that everybody gets that youre thinking of
it's mostly due to the increase in cost of post secondary education and cost of living near a decent school.
it'll take a while for the bubble to burst
college grads make about a million dollars more than high school grads on average, meaning college payments will have to reach almost that same amount before the bubble can burst
and thats ignoring the fact that a lot of college kids have their parents pay portions of their tuitions
I wonder what happened in 2002? I'm assuming a chunk of the male population joined the military after 9/11 and therefore the number of loans dipped?
If somehow Trump could think of a way to maybe offer a trade like people can give up their T-Bills in exchange for student debt writeoffs, maybe some upper middle class uncle who has a assload of T-Bills could use them to pay for college debt for their sons. Just an idea, not a expert.
The general gist is that debt the US government owes citizens can be written off for student loans. Therefore making a even trade with no extra debts added.
They are government bckd they are going to be stable longer than anyone cares and can calculate
They are backed by the government. The only way for them to burst is if the government itself bursts.
That is from data collected before the great college degree inflation era. There are now too many people, paying to much money, for degrees that are functionally useless to any employer that is using it as no more than a shitty IQ gauge.
College used to be the domain of the top 5% of society. The smartest and most driven were the only ones to go. If you weren't smart or talented you would fail classes and get kicked out. Now it is a hate crime for for the latest affirmative action case to get an F in a remedial high school-level math class.
It's just circumstantial. The millenials are straddled with too much debt, and are unable/unwilling to get jobs in their field to pay. This, coupled with the fact that they are desperately trying to find a way to resist the Trump presidency, and I see a pretty rich recipe for collapse.
I mean, they're giving $100k debt to 18 year old kids, how could that go right?
Not so farfetched. Trump is going to be trying to come up with lots of ways for the government to sell some of it's debt. Selling student loans might be on his radar. THAT'S when shorting will become entirely within reach.
So if the government began to sell that debt, say as a Trump revitalization method, the burst could be within reach.
It's unsustainable, can't shackle all the millions. Especially if a "movement" the pushes non-payment occurs. You never know what kind of "protest" these people might come up with.
That's an excellent theory. Maybe tuition prices froze as well, since that was about the time credit got SUPER cheap and the housing market started to boom.