Is Peter wrong?

In all seriousness his speech to the real estate conference in approx 2005 was very impressive.

The problem is he is very dogmatic about gold, the US dollar. Maybe he got that from his father. He insisted from 2009 to 2011 (he went quiet somewhat after) that the US dollar was the ugliest currency.

how can Schiff ever recover? i guess 99% of "economists" who are keynesian have been right this entire time

youtube.com/watch?v=UGL-Ex1CD1c

For anyone who hasn't seen it. I remember watching this video a few years ago on Veeky Forums and had many laughs.

It's impressive how they don't chimp out. Peter makes it crystal clear that they have no fucking idea what they are wasting their time on and they seem to catch on, he'd make a good teacher.

I'm not too convinced about gold either.
Where to put money in expectation of US dollar tumbling?

I figure it can't be most other currency because they seem so dependent on the US.

>muh markets
>muh end the fed
>muh gold
hes a lolbertarian shill. he's predicted countless nonexistent crashes. dont be fooled by high verbal IQ

stay liquid. foriegn currencies

Can you please explain the fed's current strategy to me if you are so enlightened?

>thinking that Wall Street's recklessness didn't cause the recession
>nonironically believes in Schiff's view on it
HAHAHAHAHA

>muh fed boogeyman
go home ron paul

My original post mentioned "actual criticism" because all I hear is the drivel like you posted which convinces me even further. I have no interest in gold either.

>thinking that Wall Street's recklessness didn't cause the recession
>nonironically believes in Schiff's view on it
What is Schiff wrong about and you right? I'd love to be wrong and learn some more.

>muh fed boogeyman
user I don't give a fuck about supporting this or that, I wanted to hear the other side hence this entire thread.

Just more non-ironic contrarian memes and greentext. Hopefully a troll.

Schiff always says there will be a recession. Eventually one comes along and he's right.

>Fed can't audit them
They post quarterly and annual financial statements audited by a third party firm

The Federal Reserve is not keeping interest rates to "prop up the economy". The Fed uses interest rates to control inflation at a slight positive level. For a number of reasons, including oil prices crashing, a large deflationary period during the recession and so on, inflation has been at a low level already. They are not lowering interest rates to give banks liquidity - banks have plenty of liquidity.

>They post quarterly and annual financial statements audited by a third party firm
So basically as opaque as they can go? Why are they so strange with this? It seems like they almost do what the fuck they want. These videos are laughable, Bernanke quivers.
youtube.com/watch?v=n0NYBTkE1yQ

>The Federal Reserve is not keeping interest rates to "prop up the economy"
Really? I thought that was almost the entire point during troubled times and factually is what they do just about every recession.
"In light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months,” (Yellen)

Their rates influence the rate at which banks loan to each-other and individuals, no? If the economy is so good, why do we still have almost 0% interest rates for almost a decade now and extreme hesitation to raise decimal places? Why is Yellen deceiving everyone with all of these supposed hikes that never happened? Job growth reports seem also very misleading when so many of the jobs are part/time or shit.

This stuff is complicated and i'm no expert but I don't see how someone can think the economy is flourishing when the fed certainly doesn't. Feel free to explain otherwise because I don't see the strategy.

>financial statements are opaque
What? What else would they do? That's about as transparent as they can possibly be. Also you can Google who owns US bonds.

>Fed's entire point is to give out money during troubled times
Yes, that was what it was established for. When the banks suffered a liquidity crisis during the recession they acted as a bank of last resort. Lowered interest rates do help liquidity. These are tools the fed has. But they also execute monetary policy together with the treasury for the benefit of the economy.

>Yellen
Those factors she mentioned are about inflation. The higher aggregate demand of a stronger labour market and low interest rates increases inflation. So the fed raises interest rates, tightening the money supply to lower inflation. The goal is 2% inflation.

>if the economy is so good why are interest rates so low?
I'm not disagreeing the economy is bad right now, I'm disagreeing with why the fed lowered interest rates. It's a common misconception the fed lowers interest rates to make captial cheaper and thus increase investment. This is partially true but what actually determines the rates is inflation.

If inflation is too low or goes negative, just holding money becomes profitable and investments decrease. Less investments, supply of goods fall but demand stays the same, prices go up. Holding money becomes even more profitable. This cycle is called a deflationary spiral. If inflation is too high, the economy overheats as people dump money into investments. More goods, but demand stays the same, prices go down. This is an inflationary spiral.

The fed stops this by raising interest rates during inflation to tighten the money supply and vice versa.

So the idea that the economy is so shit even with low interest rates means there's a recession is coming is false. All you can say is inflation has been very low and will go up in the future.

I appreciate your well-written answers user, what you're saying does mostly make sense. Refreshing from the contrarian memes.

I just don't understand where this zero interest ends without a very bumpy ride. It's unheard of and fucking weird. I know they balance inflation but CPI is such bullshit and the fed only came to my interest when I learned that inflation isn't really getting bad when it's getting crazy where I live with so many shit jobs, startups, skyrocketing CoL.

It seems so strange to me from all angles, including their deception about their future actions. The top officials donating money to Clinton too, and hike the rates as soon as Obama leaves/Hillary Loses/Trump comes in. They are far from clean I think.

What is different that causes the distinct sunk tail in this graph from all the other years? Let's keep in mind the deficit has doubled during these same years to $20+ trillion. It's all a clusterfuck but I hope i'm wrong.

kek take note of this penny stockers

>Where to put money in expectation of US dollar tumbling?

Equities are only denominated in dollars, if you buy $10,000 of stock you won't lose anything if the US dollars drops 10%, the stock will just be priced with a higher number

You will only "lose" because a 10% drop IMPLIES general economic hardship, but if you're not holding paper currency you'll suffer least

This is my layman's understanding

the absolute madman
>walk into a mob of raging negroes
>give them the rich white man talk
>make them listen to you and think
jesus

gold has always been the scapism on monetary collapses, because, you know, gold has been understood apreciated at the same time in completly different cultures along all history, gold and silver has actually been the technology that has pushed comerce between them

you should read mises to understand economy and emergent events with a fresh new perspective

gold is an institution, as family or language, that has evolved from a bunch of clusterfucks of trial and error along with our specie, just as insurances, paper money of certificated goods and stock markets

thinking gold as a currency is weird only now, but well, even now family is becoming a joke, it used to be the life goal, and anything else was around that key point, now it's not

that doesn't mean it's worthless, it's just less popular, things loose up and get forgoten or ignored, even if these were better systems/ideas

you can't eat it, drink it, it won't provide any service, yeh, but it's not about that
think about oxygen, you can't even stay alive with just few minutes without breathing it, and yet, it's worthless

liquidity, volatility, scarcity and marginal utility, on top of inmutavility, cheap and secured stockholding, transportation, is all that matters.

cryptocurrencies were designed to copy gold because all that shit combined is good

marginal utility of most things have a roof, gold, as any other currency or top tier liquidable goods, does not, ever

forgot to say, the only moments oxygen becomes apreciated is when someone next to you farts and it starts to smell like shit

I think gold DOES have some merit now, but I wouldn't throw my money into it without taking a look at other alternatives in expectation of dollar dropping. I don't care to deal with minuscule amounts, will have to do a lot of research. I've actually already made good money on bitcoin and i'll read up more on Mises as i've enjoyed skimming his works a few years ago.

What's the gist in differences between gold and silver?

>i guess 99% of "economists" who are keynesian have been right this entire time
what are you even implying here?

In terms of understanding the fundamentals of economics, Peter Schiff is very intelligent and often nails it on the head. Listening to him explain capitalism/socialism and how they work is beautiful.

However, when it comes to his doomsday stuff, he's often just trying to shill his gold.

for savings, solid currencies of sane states
for stocks, long value at sane states

the whole human stockmarket expirience and history lacks precedents of 100% cash coeficient, it's fucked up

I think even making good choices discovering value is wothless at the long run, they may keep some value but the stock prices won't ever go back close to where they were, all the money nowadays is located on big corp stocks
money creation loops end feeding stockmarkets even with wrongly so called high interest rates

>In terms of understanding the fundamentals of economics, Peter Schiff is very intelligent and often nails it on the head. Listening to him explain capitalism/socialism and how they work is beautiful.

If he is libertarian how can he justify investment strategies weighted toward parts of the world where the rule of law is imperfectly applied.

He only sees problems with the USA.

The USA is the only major economy NOT facing a demographic trap, since it's economy is growing and skilled young people across the globe want to emigrate and work in the US.

I agree on that. He's over focused on the USA, there're plenty central banks to shot truths, not noly the FED, the clusterfuck isn't about the dollar alone, all currencies, all stockmarkets, futures derivatives

To be accurate, richer countries now have the citiziens who have the major wasted investment of resources on their education/skills ever

Growth is an oasis in the desert, it's an ilusion. Credit expansion distort reality and temporal priorities.

When you over incentive real state investing, it also carries all related bussines related to produce goods used in construction, the economy is pushed up at so many levels but that's just as temporary as low interest rates are keeping that real state bubble due to cheap credit.

They keep giving alcohol to the alcoholic to delay the hangover and continue the party.

You can't really say US are growing just looking at GDP, it's a trick.

He's entirely correct.

The USA is FUCKED.

All it's going to take is one of these countries like China to revalue their currency or other countries to ditch the USD for america to collapse.

NEVER IN WORLD HISTORY have interest rates been this low for this long.

Why do people think a debt based economy is sustainable?

Europe is fucked too, China is fucked up too.

All of them are on credit expansion+none cash coeficient steroids.

Everyone copied west m8, it's not local for US, it's just that it happens you catch up worldwide attention cuz you're the cool kids on the neightbour

they hope to god it is not think.

>Europe is fucked too, China is fucked up too.
USA is more fucked than all of them.

The only reason they are even able to keep their current mediocre living standards is because they have the world reserve currency.

When that goes away it's all over.

>USA is more fucked than all of them

Oh boy...you cannot be more wrong. If USA is fucked, the rest of the world will get fucked twice as hard.

>usa uses it's world reserve currency to force the rest of the world to make products for them

How exactly would the rest of the world be fucked?

They would simply consume the products they produce instead of giving them to fat americans.

Because people actually believe that the USD is stable and will continue to be.
>They would simply consume the products they produce instead of giving them to fat americans.
So make much less money from what is the biggest/richest consumer country on the planet? Ok. Let's see.

>Because people actually believe that the USD is stable and will continue to be.
All it takes is for a few countries to stop using the USD to trade and the USA economy will collapse.

>So make much less money from what is the biggest/richest consumer country on the planet?
The value of their own currencies would rise dumbass and they would be able to consume their own consumer goods.

What country are you from?

>The value of their own currencies would rise dumbass
The Chinese don't want that. Most economists would agree Europe is more fucked, let's not even discuss Brazil.
Oh wait, recessions aren't global right? Just like the last one?

I don't care to speculate much, no advantage to me in this context.

>The Chinese don't want that.
The chinese government doesn't want that because they're delusional and retarded communists.

>Most economists
Lol most economists run the fucking world. Look how that's turning out.
Neo-keynesian economics is a joke.

Europe would be pretty fucked too, but china and southeast asia would benefit the most if the usa economy collapsed.

Peter has been right so far.

Austrian economics is never wrong.

>The chinese government doesn't want that because they're delusional and retarded communists.
I'm not sure if I should laugh at this or take it seriously. They play this game very well and play it dirty when they can. Chinese are getting smarter and smarter with preparing for these shit shows. You can't cook the books forever though.

>Lol most economists run the fucking world
Economists run the world? What the fuck am I reading?

>Look how that's turning out.
Compared to what? user you sound like another contrarian fag who thinks he has got it all figured out but has no fucking idea.

>china and southeast asia would benefit the most
Ok let's find out.

>Neo-keynesian economics is a joke.
I'll never take these posts seriously when almost all the academics in the field will make you sound like a fucking retarded. Nothing is simple here and if you think it is with some objective golden school of thought you're naive. Not saying I find that statement to be necessarily wrong in my personal opinion, but everyone here has a very shallow understanding of a complex field.

The guy has litterally nothing else to do but shove his opinions and predictions on to people. So,odds are goood he eventually might be right about something.

USA - growing population, rule of law which allows tech start ups to flourish. Increasingly energy self-sufficient.

Europe, China, Russia - NO ONE would start a Twitter or Facebook in these places (maybe a good thing you would argue). Ageing populations.

If the USA is fucked then it's Mad Max everywhere else. Libertarians are good at theory, terrible at prediction.

>youtube.com/watch?v=UGL-Ex1CD1c
the god himself

Peter Schiff predicts a recession every year, obviously if he predicts one every year he's going to be right.

What's more striking is the fact that he lost his clients money in the 07-08 recession. He told them to buy European stocks and didn't understand the global nature of the crisis and believed it would be the nail in the coffin for the US dollar. At this point, he's just a shilling idiot that doesn't even have the self-respect to change his views in response to contrary data like Larry Kudlow or Jim Bullard.

There is no worse economist on CNBC than Schiff for brains.

BUY GOLD
FUCK CRYPTO

>2018 - 2020, Brexit is a complete disaster. Trump's isolationist policies tanks the US economy and a 9/11 2.0 happening forces Trump to invade the sandniggers once again going deeper into debt

>2018 - D-Dow 17,000 is o-oversold! Stocktards on suicide watch! GOLD > $2000!
>2019 - D-Dow 12,000 is o-oversold! Stocktards on suicide watch! GOLD > $5000!
>2020 - D-Dow 8000 is o-oversold! Stocktards on suicide watch! GOLD > $15,000!

Stocktards. When will they learn?

>Peter Schiff predicts a recession every year, obviously if he predicts one every year he's going to be right.

wooah man schiff btfo, time to go listen to keynesians!

>Peter Schiff predicts a recession every year, obviously if he predicts one every year he's going to be right.
I love when you retards keep saying this bullshit.

He predicted his first recession with absolute fucking precision, almost everything he said would happen fucking happened.

>What's more striking is the fact that he lost his clients money in the 07-08 recession. He told them to buy European stocks and didn't understand the global nature of the crisis and believed it would be the nail in the coffin for the US dollar. At this point, he's just a shilling idiot that doesn't even have the self-respect to change his views in response to contrary data like Larry Kudlow or Jim Bullard.
Lol you're wrong, I was watching his youtube videos back then and he was saying he didn't realize the european situation would be that bad.

What would be a diversified portfolio for the economy crashing+substantial inflation?
Bitcoins, gold, bonds...? In what ratios?

I started following him in 2008

When the stock market was depressed he was waffling about the Gold-Dow ratio

It's a fact he's been a permabear all through this rally

In 2008/9 he was waiting for his coup de grace, the fall of the US Dollar, -decoupling- from the US, his financial crisis prediction should have been enough to rest his laurels on but his ego was too big

>rule of law which allows tech start ups to flourish
No idea what you are getting at there. What rule of law?

Why the hostility toward gold and silver, both metals are excellent in electronic, and with the growing middle class in developing countries the market for gold/silver as jewelry is only going to rise.

If smartphones are gonna continue increasing their "computational power" and retain the same size, then it can only be done by replacing some cobber wires with gold/silver wires.

it just occurred to me anons.
so far the winning strategy was to invest in the market and hold long term right?

that was however because the economy was growing. but what if the coming decades will be one huge contraction? what will perform well in a huge huge depression?

to me it looks simple demographics. the developed world the technological and industrially advanced world with huge gdp all has a downtrend in demographics. if the population contracts so will the economy or at the very least it will mostly stagnate i'm almost sure of this.

real estate will be cheaper in the future stocks will be cheaper bonds will be cheaper very possibly metals will be cheaper as less people are contesting over them. what you can invest in that is depression proof? and what if an economic depression is coupled with a monetary inflation? then not even cash is good to hold right? i'm talking about an economy riddled with dept that is not performing well and the money print starts and there is no breaks on it.

what the fuck you can put your wealth into then?

You have to get out of the system in time

>No idea what you are getting at there. What rule of law?

First amendment

Twitter cannot exist in Europe, there would be too much political meddling due to hate speech

>almost everything he said would happen fucking happened.

Hence, he was not wrong about DOW 1000, Nasdaq 500, US depression from 2009 - 2013, hyperinflation, USD index 20, gold 2000 by 2009 and gold 5000 sometime around now, GM, Chrysler, Citigroup, JPM and all the other big banks recording record profits being unable to repay TARP and needing constant bailouts etc etc etc.

He was also not wrong about mining stocks for the past 5 years which have dropped well over 50% or any of his other stellar picks like Chaoda, Jinpan etc etc. which are all in the -90% club.

>deception about future actions
It's less deception, and more that they kept getting fucked by market forces and had to keep readjusting.

>raising rates as soon as trump comes in
They were gonna raise rates in December no matter what happened because the data showed that they can.

>sunk tail
A lot of arguments why the recovery after the 08 recession was so slow, probably had something to do with decreased innovation, and massive amounts of workers falling out of the labor force when firms realized they were not needed. Offshoring and no real programs to help the workers who lost their jobs because of it definently did not help either.

Peter Shill told you not to buy bitcoin when it was 150 dollar a coin in January 2015, I told you to do so.

He's a dumb deprecated grandpa.

Good luck with being poor.

his growth fund is the best performing YTD

>Is Peter wrong?

If you spend every waking day after a crash telling everyone there's going to be another you can't be wrong.

>It's less deception, and more that they kept getting fucked by market forces and had to keep readjusting
Can you elaborate more? It seems you imply they are incompetent at their jobs. So by continually putting out statements, even though they are so consistently wrong in predictions, it's deception in perspective of everyone else that's not the fed. They failed their jobs.

>They were gonna raise rates in December no matter what happened because the data showed that they can.
Still don't see how this stays consistent with anything else they've claimed. Their officials were caught donating to Hillary's campaign and the coincidence remains that they suddenly announce a series of hikes as soon as Obama is finished. They are playing dirty, which is expected, because the consequences are almost non-existent. Why wouldn't they do this?

>A lot of arguments why the recovery after the 08 recession was so slow
Well sure. I just want something more convincing because it's a completely different approach to anything done prior. I really have no fucking idea what to think regarding that, but what is the result? The recovery is mostly a joke and has built a buffer that will collapse harder.

Millennials are so fucked it's hard to put into perspective.

i dont get it, is this suppose to be pro-keynsan poster? its no wonder austrians are stuck in 1920 reasoning

>substantial inflation
why do you think there would be substantial inflation when recessions produce deflationary pressures

>its no wonder austrians are stuck in 1920 reasoning
But that school of thought has developed and evolved in a manner not that different from the evolution in the Keynesian model.

Is "stuck in reasoning" even a bad thing? It might mean it's just a result from following something closer to Occam's razor, which means not continually making assumptions and over-complicating things. To take to extreme: same reason that anarchy hasn't changed from the initial proposition.

and what are post-hayek accomplishments of autrian school?
and the rest?
1. behavioral economics
2. efficient markety hypothesis
3.rational expectations
4. good central bank polciy(where almost any bank in the world can have stable inflation, something unheard of in 19th century
5.public choice theory
6. game theory
7. human capitsal theory
and thats just off the top of my head.
Look, I am not saying austrian economics is bad at analyzing things, but it unfortunately fails at analyzing any complex situation because of its inability to even consider mathematical models and statistical techniques.
> Occam's razor, which means not continually making assumptions and over-complicating things
but the world is compex, just look at all the disccusions on /pol/ and Veeky Forums as to the effect of 20% tax on mexican imports- there are many logical examples to all sides of the debate, but without mathematical models and calculations of elasticity they are all just bad guesses

>and what are post-hayek accomplishments of Austrian school?
user these arguments just come down to what is mostly semantics. Chicago school has had influences from both. Let's not be so binary but I think you understand.

>but it unfortunately fails at analyzing any complex situation
Have you heard the term naive-keynesian? These two models are just a core to be built upon. A perfect system will never be created and both have had plenty of contribution to today's economics. Yes Keynesian thought still dominates, but who knows of what the alternative reality would look like? Obama was Keynes biggest fan and look at our current economy.

>but the world is complex
Yes, of course. But the solutions to the most complex problems are often the simplest or most efficient when broken to simple modules. This is especially evident in hard science. Think of medicine, when someone has a sore throat do you first test for some rare genetic disorder or the common cold?

Ultimately this board really doesn't know anything and we just speculate. People who have had their entire lives in economics are still debating with each-other and clash constantly. Who are we to fanboy a particular someone when economics isn't even entirely objective? Just not a real debate to be had here but I think you can agree.

Austrian economics assumes all human beings are 110 IQ + rational males

I'm not a Keynesian either. Just because I don't like Schiff doesn't make me a Keynesian. This is why nobody likes Austrians and you are literally the joke of economics. Kill yourself.

>predicted his first recession with absolute precision

He was wrong about the Europeans. He's been a permabear throughout the current rally.