Am I the only person who thinks Snap is a worthless company with little to no potential?
Their numbers just don't add up. They are no where near making a profit and the SnapChat UX makes it almost impossible to get real ad revenue out of it.
What does everyone see in this company?
>real revenue
people think that people think that people think that people think that snapchat will make money
somewhere in that line real money is made
buy eth
There are people way smarter than you who think otherwise.
Snapchat is awesome.. whatsapp old
serious question: what's the __second__ most valuable company right now whose core demographic won't be able to even apply for credit cards for another 4-5 years?
>By far the largest Snapchat age demographic is 18- to 24-year-olds. This age group makes up 37 percent of Snapchat users. But well-past-college-aged 25- to 34-year olds make up about 26 percent of Snapchatters, and about 12 percent of users are aged 35 to 54.
That being said, I really believe Snap is worth less than half of what it's currently valued at
Dot Com 2.0
>They are no where near making a profit
Yep, you haven't researched snap at all. You're acting like you have, but you haven't. Don't embarrass yourself by hopping on the "le crapchat" Veeky Forums bandwagon.
so buy puts before earnings and screenshot that shit to show everyone how smart you are
Amy I wrong? Are they close to making a profit? Please give me some insight here.
Yup. Tiny revenue to valuation ratio
Buy puts once options are available
>not realizing they make a shitload of money off of selling people private data
you clearly have no idea how social media companies make so much
>shitload of money
>lost half a billion dollars in 2016
I made over $500 million more than Snapchat did last year
>Hurrr durrrr I have no idea what I'm talking about but i like to pretend
i think they have better ads / placement than probably any of the other social unicorns
UX is heinous dogshit though
I'm sure you totally did dude, keep up the great work man!
you have autism
very little data to mine and sell in comparison to fb
as soon as user growth stalls(its already slowing from what ive read) theyre fucked
The best part is so did everyone else in this thread, including you
Look at the user revenue break out in the S-1. Majority of revenue comes from the US. That tells me that, either they haven't tapped foreign markets yet, or, the rest of the world doesn't care about SNAP.
That isn't even my problem with SNAP. Majority of their expenses are cost or revenue, or, the cost requires to run the app Snapchat. They're paying more money to run the app then revenue brought in. S-1 claims this goes to third party venders, hosting, infastructure and band with. Unless they invent something to cheapen their cost of revenue then the business is, quite simply, not viable.
tl;dr
Snapchat is not a viable business as of the S-1
>kinda hard to sell information on an app that sends pics
so they ransom your nudes?
That's about the only information I can think that they can sell while as Facebook knows literally everything about you
and people way smarter than them who think otherwise
and people way smarter than them who think otherwise
etc
>Unless they invent something to cheapen their cost of revenue then the business is, quite simply, not viable
>hurr durr I looked at two numbers on their s1 and didn't do any other research now I'm smarter than wallstreet at spotting a viable business
Their cost of revenue is set for the next 5 years, they have contracts with Google cloud and AWS to spend $2 billion and $1 billion in the next five years. They pay $400M to google yearly and to AWS: $50M in 2017 and $125M in 2018. Let's just say $600M a year in cost of revenue just to be safe. Emarketer's revenue projections for snap are in line with snap's own leaked projections and say we will see $935M in 2017 and $1761M in 2018. That means if they keep their cost of R&D, Sales, marketing, general and administrative at or below a 56% yoy increase they will be profitable by 2018. A measly two years from now. Snap knows this, the most brilliant people on wallstreet know this.
>the smartest people on wall street are making speculative revenue bets
Top kek
No, the smartest guys on wall street bundled together a failing, but trendy business to sell to idiots who think they can predict revenue going out. Your analysis assumes that an unaudited pro forma and an analyst forecast actually matters. I can build a trashy pro forma on an excel spreadsheet like you did and wave it in front of idiots on Veeky Forums too.
It's a baghold right now buddy and the smartest retail investors are riding and passing it up. If you want to trade it ride the wave and make money.
You were wrong, buddy. Didn't mean to embarrass you so much, I've just researched this more than you. You are speculating based on shit you make up in your own head, others are speculating off of actual data.
>>the smartest people on wall street are making speculative revenue bets
What is this, your first day? If a company slashes their revenue projection, their stock takes a hit lower. Pricing a company is based on all known information. Emarketer's user growth projection have been right on the money so far, their revenue projections are in line with snap's own internal projection. Could they be wrong? Of course they could. What kind of retard would take projections as a literal crystal ball into the future? They could be horribly wrong, instagram could pull the carpet right out from under snapchat. But your statement "Unless they invent something to cheapen their cost of revenue then the business is, quite simply, not viable" is just simply not true when you look at the data.
I'm not speculating because I don't buy companies that don't make money in the present.
>actual data
>hurr durr im going to cap bandwith expenses at 600mil
>emarketer has been spot on
>but emarketer could be wrong
>valuing a company with revenue and not fcff/fcfe
>assuming SNAP can keep other expenses below 56%
>ignoring their new access to public and expanded credit
Holy fuck dude you've got some stuff to work out....
It's amazing how ignorant people on this board are. When you hear about Facebook/Google "selling your data" it's literally just their advertising programs allowing advertisers to target certain demographics. They're not selling a list of people's birthdays and Facebook likes to different companies.
>>hurr durr im going to cap bandwith expenses at 600mil
Yes, those are the terms of the contract. Snap gets cheap bandwidth in exchange for committing to the $3 billion dollars. Really, it should be $450M in 2017 and $525M in 2018 But I'm giving myself a margin of safety.
>emarketer has been spot on
Yes they have.
>but emarketer could be wrong
Yes, of course they could still be wrong
>valuing a company with revenue and not fcff/fcfe
Ask wallstreet that one
>assuming SNAP can keep other expenses below 56%
No, they might not. But those expenses have nothing to do with their cost of revenue. You said their cost of revenue made them not viable, when in reality it is their other costs we have to look at.
>ignoring their new access to public and expanded credit
Can you send me a link with more information on this?
10m profit on 2k revenue aint nothing, but it's really not much (0.5%)
Combined with the impending market saturation...
I think its wise to buy because it will be acquired once it becomes profitable. After that, tap out.
Or I could just wait a little while to see if the bullshit you're spouting actually starts happening.
Tell ya what, I'll do the exact same thing I did with their S-1 in 2017 and if they've changed, as in, they make money and haven't over leveraged, then I will buy shares if they are undervalued.
the market will correct itself soon
stock will go up for 3 months and then crumble
but I'm enjoying the ride for now
>Revenue will double again in the next 4 quarters
Holy shit what are they smoking
>Snap is a worthless company with little to no potential?
Nigga, machine learning, something?
i'm going to hold until facebook buys it and implements it into instagram. you can tell that's what they desperately want but can't accomplish with their "stories" feature. as for datamining, Snapchat will just become the advert when facebook buys. it's already pushing products, when facebook gets their hands on it and develops it into a premier app you're going to have many many features that bring you into a business. snap coupons that expire in an hour, collecting snap tags at certain businesses, merging snapmemories with facebook memories, a superior video-chat feature for the phone than what messenger has... facebook is buying buying buying this for sure
It's a tech bubble.
yup..there are gains to be had but you enter at your own rislk. when it pops its not gonna leave much time for exits.
set stop losses if you're touching this shit.
Speigel already rejected a Zuck offer and FB has nowhere near the resources to perform a takeover of SNAP right now. a merger seems...unlikely...to say the least.
>all these armchair traders saying snapchat is "overvalued"
In case you haven't realised armchair trading is now the norm as opposed to an exception, people are making money BECAUSE it is now in the mainstream to know the fundamentals and basics of trading and the stock market.
The tech age does not deal in the fundamentals, this is a new world and all of you old people with your darn revenue analysing P&L sheets and looking at past trends are dinosaurs. It's a new world and you're all being left behind.
right its overvalued because its trading at a premium and has yet to prove its worth through a gauntlet of earnings reports like every other company
doesnt mean it cant still technically push much higher to the 70s even before a series of corrections in anticipation of earnings followed by a (potentially) bad report
3bn was a lowball after Snapchat blew FB's clone out. Instagram stories is flopping already, monthly users looks good but daily time of use is definitely nowhere near Snapchat.
Facebook is now investing the most into Instagram. If they fail to beat Snapchat again they will capitulate. Just hope Speigel accepts next time
They said the same about Facebook.
>right its overvalued because its trading at a premium and has yet to prove its worth through a gauntlet of earnings reports like every other company
All I'm seeing is a bunch of metrics here.
Forget the fundamentals, forget revenue, forget profit, forget everything. All you need to know is that Snapchat has the distribution network - and if you have the distribution network you own everything - look at airbnb for a primitive example - most valuable hotel company in the world without owning any property.
And just wait until the middle east and China get their hands on this, they're always a year or two late to the game - they will send snapchat skyrocketing.