Hello Veeky Forums.
/pol/tard here.
I don't really care about money, banks, and trading because I'm not very rich. But I studied basic economics, and I know we are at the end of the economic cycle, which mean a market drop and global economic crisis is near.
I just want to know, how long till it triggers?
You can't time the market.
Meanwhile others are banking on opportunities that are already out there, as always.
So, we just have to wait for a random date?
I think we'll all get a good feel for it when we find out what the fed does on the 14th&15th.
half a percent increase and things may cool and slow (probably a prudent move)
but I wouldn't put it past (them) to do some reckless and tank the economy with some serious increases this year. (or other fuckery)
>You can't time the market.
of course you can
there is money to be made in any market crash if you see it coming
By selling your assets first?
Nobody knows when. Harvey S. Dent was calling it for early 2016, but Boomers didn't retire in the numbers that he thought they would so that one was delayed. Student loan bubble is supposed to pop when it's ripe, but idk how swole it is yet. California real estate market is a ticking time bomb still. All of that is just stateside, plenty of overseas stuff can set it off too.
Basically we're all just waiting around for something to crash and for the response to the crash to fuck up.
>what is a short?
You can't time the market, markets are efficient. It's all a random walk down wallstreet.
Seriously do people just regurgitate bullshit from their economics class and try and work things out for themselves?
*Never try to work things out for themselves
July, then october, then november, then december
...
No good bubble in the West right now, other than the algorithmic trading bubble, and that will only wipe out a few hedge funds.
Sure, house prices in California or Australia might blow, or student loans, or car loans, but none of those industries have much exposure to the broader market.
My guess would be that we'll see a slowdown in China over the next decade, maybe sooner. Their financial system is too centrally controlled to allow an acute crisis, so it'll be more of a torturous slide into civil unrest and foolhardy military aggression to regain lost pride. All of that will drag on whoever is invested in China, which will more or less be everyone. There will also probably be some new exotic derivative bubble at some point. Maybe a crisis in Russia too.
Okay, so either nothing, or great power war.
Nice. Thanks.
well usually the crash will come and take 99% of the people utterly unprepared with trousers around the ankles.
Definitely the 15. Debt ceiling becomes law, and there is no way Congress will unite to stop it. What is it, 90+ months of sustained growth? Has to pop sometime, and wecan truly say this is going to be all Obama's fault.
HURR
>sell at top of market for profit
>short falling markets for profit
>buy at bottom of market for profit
Unless you bought in on top like a regard.
It's numbers mate, you can at least estimate happenings based on benchmarks.
>student loans
Nationalized
>auto loans
Partially nationalized
And thus cometh the debt ceiling, end of fiat borrowing.
>I know we are at the end of the economic cycle, which mean a market drop and global economic crisis is near.
Your evidence?
No fucking way Obama's gonna get any blame. Trump's been bragging about the stock market bubble. It won't be his fault, but he's going to get everyone bit of the blame.
New president with Congressional blowback, multiple Fed increases this year alone, Debt ceiling becomes law on the 15, and there will be no bipartisan response. As such there will be no new tax code for businesses or otherwise. The Obamacare fiasco will continue past the summer, probably past the point of a temporary government shutdown.
Oj and thanks to Turkey, Geert Wilders may actually win the Netherlands, which would ensure La Pen winning France next month.
It's a metaphorical superstorm heading right for us.
>Trump doubled the debt
>Trump signed the debt ceiling holiday
>Trump signed Stimulus package 2
I'm sure. It's wouldn't be different if he claimed it or didn't, the mainstream media is paid for.
This will be more likely to end in stagnation than a crash.
USA will just enter a prolonged period of no growth.
you don't need to time the market, it will happen eventualy, this year is a good candidate for people shitting themselves
markets are extremely bullish without any foundation backing that optimism up lol
it's just monetary policices kicking delusions higher
recesion is just the realocation of wasted resources of chained bankrupt agents due to credit expansion
2008 recesion was pushed back with even more credit expansion
there's not that much of a mystery unless you're keynessian
they say that every year, tho
No one knows. It's always "this year" or "next year." There is no point in trying to time it.
dont forget the breakup of the UK
this would have a large impact in asia since its owned by china.
No bubble in the West? There is a global bubble. See below
>And thus cometh the debt ceiling, end of fiat borrowing.
>And thus cometh the debt ceiling, end of fiat borrowing.
there are literally no academic papers that high debt/gdp ratio has deleterious effects, and only a few that show a slight negate effect on gdp growth.
What happens when a debt ceiling is reached? When debtors collect?
But doesn't that mean you're still predicting for it crash.
I don't know much from stocks so can you
elaborate on this? When I think about it in
theory it kind of makes sense. You borrow the
shares then you sell and wait for it to drop then
you buy said shares to make profit. Rinse and
repeat till the crash?
well if it doesn't drop you're bretty much fucked because of exp. dates and the tons of money you will lose when your position goes to the moon
Like it can happen you can lose WAY more then you initially brought in
>s are efficient. It's all a random
nice meme right there
I see so shorting is less of a risk and even if it
doesn't drop, your lose wouldn't be as bad as
you buying the stock and the recession
occurring. Can you confirm what I wrote was
right if I understood your message? Thanks.
every year their cheats add up;
more QEs
more printing
more debt
more private bankrupcies rescued with public spending
more limits to cash use
more make up to state's inventories
more unhealthy markets saturated of regulations and priviledges
that's exactly why scarce resources with perfect marginal utility (money, even bitcoin) are a safe bet
you know the idiots in charge of the world school of thought
they say what they're going to do
they mostly do what they plan to do
they're just going to make things worse and rely on a wealth transfer due to keep pushing credit expansion on steroids as much as needed, deficit spendings weights are just being pushed ahead in time, future generations' problem
things doesn't change much in direction, they just snowball to more dramatic dimensions
when is not going to happen, because they have the ability to patch things up, of course, in a zero sum game
everyone pays for it, everyone lowers their quality of life , savings, income and purchase power
stocks are crowded due to incentives and laziness pushing all the money on them
you better keep your wealth in really scarce items that happen to be liquidable without losing value due to their natural marginal utility as currency
Is this the average Veeky Forums poster?
risk doesn't come from your temorary positions but for the positions themselves
how correct your foundations for making that choice are determine most of the risk
value investing consists on analycing undeinable facts that are the underlying components on value and therefore price
anything else is staking
short stakes are less risky as when only factoring probabilities, extraordinary changes are unlikely to happen on that time frame.
short staking works just because how monetarism cheating works, as it pushes more and more money into stockmarkets so they're always uptrending due to unnatural forces
The long-running near zero interest rates ARE the bubble. We will see another 2008 start up after FED raises rates.
I see that was very helpful thanks.
I don't know if i can speak out for others but i'm just learning
the aggressive rate rises would cause a mass default, 0-3.5% in a year would be devastating
i'd expect the fed to back down on most of the rises
(((they))) aren't backing down on these raises user. Even if they do the free market pretty much won't let them this time. When the FOMC finishes its meeting tomorrow and announces interest rate increases.... lets just say we'll be adding that to the history books one day as the beginning of the end.
Its only the start tomorrow though, Personally I'm expecting 0.5% as I think everyone knows the economy can't handle more than that at once.
Once we get past an additional 1.5%, with how high consumer debt is, and how quickly prices are going up, long story gets short, nobody can afford shit.
>What happens when a debt ceiling is reached?
You pass a new one. Debt ceilings are arbitrary political nonsense.
The U.S. government has assets in the hundreds of trillions. The debt only looks unmanageable because the numbers are unfamiliar.
I will agree with you user that they are arbitrary political nonsense. We can go into as much as we damn well please because we can and have every incentive to do so.
>tl:dr print endless money.
the problem with printed money its only as valuable as people say it is. Now typically the US army has been there to bully 3rd world nations into accepting our paper for real natural resources, thus proving real wealth to america and essentially memeing shit into a real economy.
The real problem: the US is waining fast and people ain't going to accept their useless shit paper for much longer.
We would normally be fine if we had invested in a productive economy, except we've all gotten rich and fat from living off the tremendous ROI of oil and used said income to finance massive debt bubbles for the billionaires.
t. US Gov is about to be the biggest bag holder in history
I've been hearing 2018 a lot recently.