Get out of Cars/Trucks immediately. Transport is done.

Snarelure
Snarelure

The entire vehicle industry worldwide is about to be destroyed. Anyone who has any investments in a car company needs to divest immediately. Those stocks are fucking dead.

The End of Ownership of automobiles is here. This also effects oil prices heavily.

The change over is happening. Reminder: SELL any oil and transport companies asap. By the end of the year every single car company in the world will be down in value by 40%.

Self-Driving Cars are performing above expectations.

If you own any car company get the fuck out ASAP. The value is going to be diminished majorly by the end of the year and it's impossible to predict valuation. The number of cars required in 2025 is about 1/10th of today's number. Get the fuck out ASAP. Normies are starting to wake up to it. You have until the end of the year, but get out now.

Seriously. If you have any money in oil or vehicle companies. Get out ASAP.

Spazyfool
Spazyfool

Implying those car companies won't make self-driving cars of their own.

Lunatick
Lunatick

volume and demand is different.
The future demand is known to be low.

The valuations will tank. One self-driving Taxi can replace 20 cars.

Soft_member
Soft_member

implying people will take self-driving taxis instead of buying their own self-driving car
This speculation is based on...?

kizzmybutt
kizzmybutt

I don't think you get it. Do I have to spell it out to you? It's a cascading effect. You want to get out early and avoid the downturn/risk. There isn't going to be an upside unless you magically find a car company that monopolizes the whole thing.

It's about General Demand. Not whether every single person does something.

Poker_Star
Poker_Star

fully agree.
Once a cab driver in the USA ripped me off by $20, which I found out later by doing the same route with a different driver who charged me $20 less. I can't fucking wait until every cab driver in the world is on suicide watch or drinking themselves into the gutter. Fuck everyone associated with that industry.

Deadlyinx
Deadlyinx

General demand is based on what single individuals do. Why will single individuals give up car ownership and take taxis instead?

Carnalpleasure
Carnalpleasure

There is ZERO reason to be in the industry right now. Get out asap. This is slightly common knowledge, but by the end of the year it will be everyone who knows and you want to be ahead of the herd.

There is zero upside in the industry from these changes.

TalkBomber
TalkBomber

A car sits idle 95%+ of the time. Insurance costs, etc.

Handling all of your driving by on-demand fleets is unbelievably efficient. The cost is tremendously less on the individual. The downside of taxis, paying the driver and also being in a car with a driver, will go away. It's an entirely different type of market. Mass disruption. No reason to be in and also the overabundance of 7 year car loans is going to shit on it anyway.

There is zero upside in the car/transport industry because the disruption is going to be so immense. You want zero exposure.

WebTool
WebTool

Baseless assertions are meaningless.

eGremlin
eGremlin

I can't fucking wait until every cab driver in the world is on suicide watch or drinking themselves into the gutter.

God that will be a beautiful thing. Uber has made it better, but that's clearly just patching up the shit show until self driving cars become mainstream.

JunkTop
JunkTop

Yep, Uber is pretty public about aiming for full self driving even at google's expense

CodeBuns
CodeBuns

What is the actual cost breakdown of owning your own car versus using an auto cab? How about regularly over a period of years? How much are consumers willing to spend extra to not have to wait at all and be able to go outside of whatever range they have? What market research has been done?

Fried_Sushi
Fried_Sushi

A significant decrease in costs, over 75%.

Insurance, maintenance, etc. All gone. No loans, all on demand.

Nude_Bikergirl
Nude_Bikergirl

You're viewing it from the way we view owning a car now. You see it as kind of a glorified taxi service, it won't be. You're still viewing it through the lens we have in
current year

Lunatick
Lunatick

I'll just explain this.

Think about the logistics and demand signal response in a self-driving fleet versus what we have now.

Anything with a basic knowledge of logistics would understand how revolutionary it is in terms of efficiency to have an entire on-demand fleet of cars.

Crazy_Nice
Crazy_Nice

Not to mention the absolutely massive hit to police budgets. I have a feeling DUI will still be a crime for a few years after self driving cars are a thing.

MPmaster
MPmaster

That's a bit too far in the future. I just am expecting impacts by the end of the year on the auto industry. This is also because of other things like the number of 7 year loans.

I think it will become common understanding peak auto is here and decline in demand is coming. Also no one will know how the market will shake up.

Evil_kitten
Evil_kitten

Yeah I agree auto is a shit show to get involved in right now.

farquit
farquit

Insurance and maintenance aren't gone, they're just paid by the owner of the service. The costs get passed on to the customers.

Where are you getting this over 75% figure from? Over what time frame? Where are you numbers coming from?

Yeah, I am. Do you know how often someone says that technology x will completely change how industry y works? Do you know how often they are actually correct?

Buzzwords.

w8t4u
w8t4u

I'm not here to convince you. I fully respect your skepticism.

Mine is the current upside is shit and I see no reason to be in autos

likme
likme

I would also cite the disconnect in investor optimism in the hardware area as compared to auto values.

hairygrape
hairygrape

The funny part is that I'm not even in auto stocks, but you come across as either having an agenda or having been sucked in by someone else with an agenda.

Methshot
Methshot

This board seems to be full of shills. I hardly doubt an industry like the autos would be impacted by a biz thread. Especially one with zero sources in any of my posts. It's just a very obvious thing and it's not a new sentiment.

VisualMaster
VisualMaster

Funny OP. I was just telling my father this exact thing about two hours ago. Used cars are at their lowest value since 2008. Ally bank, who underwrites the majority of used car loans, expects used car values to fall another 5% this year. With a car fleet of 255 million, this run automakers had is officially over. There is no more that automakers can do except lower car prices even more.

So again, To reiterate OP's opinion, get out now or will be too late.

Need_TLC
Need_TLC

How about the good can driver who didn't fuck you over?

They are the most likely tax dodgers here in UK though and taxi drivers have well established, underground Mafia's doing serious work in many different countries

w8t4u
w8t4u

Because when every accident is caused by a human rear-ending a self-driving car that stopped at a yellow, your insurance premiums are gonna skyrocket, man.

Bidwell
Bidwell

Because it would theoretically be much cheaper. Think about it; taxis are expensive because of maintenance and driver wages. If you remove driver wages, you're cutting your expenses by half or more (most of that savings would get passed on to the consumer initially). Then, all you have to do is integrate with an app like Uber to automate the ride hailing/scheduling side of things, and you're cutting life 75% of the overhead for your average taxi company.

Scale up this business model to a couple thousand vehicles and you could realistically compete with public transport on pricing.

Playboyize
Playboyize

So, the question then becomes: How does the urban/rural divide play out? Almost all the rideshare users are in the cities, you need that level of density to support a company like Uber or Lyft.

Is driving your own truck going to be the kind of thing we only associate with yokels in a couple of decades?

Emberburn
Emberburn

Totally agree with the op

TurtleCat
TurtleCat

I want to do this, but it's late and I'm phone posting in bed rn.

If the thread is still up tomorrow while I'm at work, I'll crunch some numbers and get back to you.

farquit
farquit

Interesting view, but I see the opposite.

The transition to self-driving will cause huge profits in the short/mid term - once it hits that critical level, suddenly everyone will want to own or ride in a self driving car.

In the long run there will always be demand for luxury cars, even if the average guy just rides an autotaxi around. It's also important to note that most people head to/from work around the same time, so there would still be a need for many taxis in service in order to maintain availability during rush hour.

I actually think Uber is fucked. If autotaxis really take off, they lose their niche. It won't be hard to run an autotaxi app, so competition will increase to the point where there's minimal profit. Maybe they can keep a niche by providing a platform for users to rent out their own self-driving cars as taxis or something.

Insurance providers could be in trouble too. Less accidents = Lower payments = Less room for profit

Obviously current taxi and truck drivers are also pretty fucked, but on the bright side maybe they can get more fulfilling work.

I'm long GM + NVDA and will likely hold for at least 2 years. Even if demand falls significantly 10-20 years from now, its likely that there will be other disruptive advances happening by then.

w8t4u
w8t4u

Cool thread OP.

If autocars take off, movies will never be good again.

farquit
farquit

i think it will basically turn into an advertising business. the autotaxis free up a lot of attention that has only been eaten up by radio and billboards. similar to a subway or bus, i think you will have a massive amount of advertising inside of the cars and that's where the money will come from. what you pay for the ride won't cover the operating cost of the vehicle because it will be so heavily plastered in advertising.

i think the biggest difference a luxury version will offer is the absence of advertising.

SomethingNew
SomethingNew

the future is mass transportation.

Soft_member
Soft_member

You mean the same way that going digital means that the consumer can get a cheaper movie/music ablum/book/game if they don't buy a physical copy? Oh, wait, that (for the most part) never happened. We still pay through the fucking nose for digital shit.

Worse still, often it's more expensive. I can get a copy of LOTR: Fellowship of the Ring for 1p, and £2.80 shipping used... or £5.99 for the kindle version (and only 40p more for a new physical copy).

You really think [Corperation/Taxi firm] are going to let you see a penny of the money saved? In their eyes, that's pure profit. You might see prices on taxis drop maybe 10%; and then years later it will scale up, and you will basically be paying the full price.

Buses and trams and shit will still be the poor persons transport of choice, as will decent cars picked up for £300-1000 used, that will last you years if you maintain them. This could end up being the death of taxi drivers, in cities at least, but the comapnies will just laugh all the way to the bank.

Well, fuck. Yeah, that's going to be fun for both my insurance premiums, and due diligence. I'll just stay well back from clearly self-driving cars.

I wonder how well they will handle shitty and weird country roads. Not everywhere is a city or endless staights of the US.

iluvmen
iluvmen

nah this isn't going to happen. Every, if not most, automobile manufacturers are going to bring out an electric vehicle in the next 3-5 years. Stocks will remain steady or go up. Self-driving cars are further out than electric cars.

Methshot
Methshot

You're dumb. Why does your brain not work good? It's annoying.

NVDA was good at 50, not so great at 100, but still better than most investments.

GM is shit though.

The whole point is everyone will be up in their running around the room hoping they end up not being swallowed by lava. The disruption is too big and there is no point to having any money in auto industry while it gets shaken up.

Uber has some semi reasonable positioning in machine learning so they aren't completely shit on yet.

Also your projection of time is ridiculous. It's not the technology that will be the bottleneck if it takes that long but instead regulation. The thing is some country will allow it and the prediction models incorporating eventual legality of it will already hit stock prices.

It's about demand for new cars in general declining compounded with self-driving fleets also eating up demand. There simply won't be as many cars being built or the demand will switch to a more selective criteria.

Existing vehicles can also be modified for the technology. It won't require all new vehicles.

TechHater
TechHater

This thread fuels my dream of driving my red testarossa one day, when no mortal is longer allowed to drive manually. I will hoon the automated streets, being chased by self-driving gov mustangs.
I will be the night walker.

Stupidasole
Stupidasole

implying no one will need to drive to work at the same time in 8 years.

Dreamworx
Dreamworx

inverse oil and gas will not get u far my boy

CodeBuns
CodeBuns

So to do this, we have to first understand the economics of cab companies/Uber (pic related).

The average/standard cab currently costs the trip arranger/cab company about $6.50 per trip in large cities/markets, depending on which car is driven.

That number drops DRAMATICALLY when you consider the cost of a driverless taxi. Look at the highlighted cells on the left vs. the highlighted cells on the right.

Next, I'll get into the (largely assumed, but probably not TOO inaccurate) numbers about what that means for 1) Uber and other large-scale ride sharing platforms, and 2) what that COULD mean for you, as a potential user of this new ride-sharing system in the future.

GoogleCat
GoogleCat

Shit. Forgot the pic.