I've been betting on short term 95+% certain bets in PredictIt for about a year now with multiple accounts to avoid the...

I've been betting on short term 95+% certain bets in PredictIt for about a year now with multiple accounts to avoid the betting cap limitation and I've more than tripled my money.

>If you bet with 95% certain odds, you're going to lose 1/20th of the time
With political betting, I just think it's different.
95+% doesn't really mean 95%, it means the job is more or less certain. I mean betting on things like "Will Trump drop out of the election by end of October?" when it's already the middle of October. Not stupid shit like "how many tweets?" etc. If I do this 4 or 5 times a week, I can get at least 10-20% gains a week. You can even bet on things that have already happened sometimes because the site makes all kinds of mistakes and is driven by liberal hopes and dreams. Liberals bet what they want, not what things actually are, and it's easy to capitalize on that.

I have also never lost and I'm thinking to cash out soon with my winnings.

Is anyone else doing this?

How are you making money if they charge a 10% fee on profits and an additional 5% fee on withdrawals? Sounds like you're losing money.

You might be asking "well you can't keep going on like this. How would the company make money?" They make money by taking a commission of my winnings, of course. The only real losers here are the liberals who keep betting their money against obvious shit like giving Trump a 45% chance of getting impeached by both houses and losing the presidency THIS YEAR ALONE despite having a majority Republican house and senate and it already being April and htese kinds of things taking a long time.

How fucking easy is this? It's so undervalued it's hilarious.

Even with the 5% withdrawl fee, I make it back after a few days and the 10% on profits is negligible.

The fucking "will trump still be president this year? 45% returns" market is unbelievable. And there's one for "will trump still be president at the end of 2018?" with even higher returns. At least when i bought it, now they're starting to get smaller as people realize how stupid they were to bet on this.

I wasn't kidding about 300% annual returns doing next to nothing. I didn't even bet on the election.

I bet on things like "will Hilary Clinton drop out of the race in October?" in THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. And I did the same thing for September, August, etc. Now I'm doing it again.

>Will Sean Spicer be fired by next week?
Hmm, there's like a 95% chance he won't be. I'll take it.

But the best ones are the ones that expire in like an hour or 2 with 1-2% returns still on the table and a 98% "yes". I just go to the "Closing Soon" page and buy anything that has super 98%+ certainty.

Oh, the fee on profit literally means 10% of the 5% you earn. That's really good.

The 5% is 5% total of everything, not just what you earn.

So if you send them you're money to start betting, you better make more than 5% returns before you withdraw or you'll lose some money.

But you can make 5% returns easily after a few low-risk bets so it becomes negligible.

The 5% is 5% of whatever you withdraw from the site, regardless of what you bet. So yeah, you start off with a 5% losing position, but I lost it in the first week like a year ago so I haven't thought much about it.

And yes they take 10% of your profits.. So if you get a 1% return you really only get .9% return on that bet.
Of course the betting site is going to come out on top. The only losers here are the liberals voting with their hearts and not their heads.
The fact that I've done this hundreds of times now and every time it feels like I'm voting on things that are common sense tells me I'm doing something right. At this point, even if I somehow lost, which is really, really unlikely, I'd still make a huge profit off the site just from having used multiple accounts.

Why aren't more people doing this?

It's WAAAY easier than trading I'll tell you that.

Good point. But I also have a question to you. Isn't 15% fee/tax better than 35% a company has to pay in the US?

For example, an actual bet I made this year on the site:
"Will Donald Trump throw the first pitch of an opening game of this year's baseball season?"

>It's the day of the last opening game, bet ends in a few hours
>Trump is in the White House
>He has stated that he has no intention of throwing the pitch and has no time to throw the pitch, nor will he be attending the baseball game and it's obvious
>Even if he got on the plane RIGHT NOW and hurried to the baseball game, he would barely make it in time for it to start
>Still a 3% return on my money if I bet that he WON'T throw the pitch

Why the fuck WOULDN'T I take a bet like this?
Well I did take the bet, and surprise surprise Trump didn't magically teleport to the baseball game. Easy money.

What do you mean exactly?
A company has to pay maybe 35% of the money it makes I'd imagine, right?
So that's 35% of the 15% fee they take from me. Company still makes profits.
I don't think I fully understand your question. The company would get taxed on the money it makes, not the total money all its users bet with, I would think. I don't know the exact tax details for that though.
Alright this may have been more like 2% returns but there are still loads of these kinds of bets all the time.

I'm just curious if any other Veeky Forums people are out there doing this?

>Why the fuck WOULDN'T I take a bet like this?
Bookmaker could go bankrupt before paying out
Bookmaker could freeze your account
Bookmaker could cancel the bet

I'm just comparing the fees when you bet to the actual taxes a company has to pay. The company pay a 35% tax (you could call it fee) and still survive. So some people can probably survive betting.

I lost about $1500 betting Hillary would win. Been working on recovering my loss since then using a similar strategy (often seek out 90% bets though) but with just one account, starting with 300 bucks. Made 700 back so far. It's a good investment, after last November my risk appetite is a little stunted though.

Considering the bet only lasts a few hours and the company is extremely successful in the US and completely legal and mainstream, if all I'm betting on is the extremely short term solvency of the company, it's a pretty good bet.

I never bet on things I'm not 100% certain about. I would never bet on the election itself. It's got to be like 98%+ for me or something like "Will Trump drop out?" with 90% or so before I buy in. Except for "Will trump still be president at the end of 2017?" That bet alone is giving me like 40% returns and I will do the same in 2018 with even higher returns.

Is there a limit on how much money you can bet?

On a week to week basis I have a problem sometimes finding enough markets I think look really safe. The tweet markets are retarded, the average approval markets are getting a little harder, and there's not always that much else I feel confident in.

Right now the 5% return on the Michael Flynn immunity market looks pretty good. The Spicer and Priebus getting fired markets look alright, but I dunno. I just saw some very promising looking markets about who will be in the top 2 for the first round results of the French election. Might look closer at that when I get home.

Do you ever post in the comments? Everyone there seems like an idiot.

Ok so they say $850 per bet. Meaning you can bet as much as you want, but only $850 per question. But that's bullshit because you can make new accounts and bet at the same time on those.

I run like 5+ accounts now and could easily do more. There's no verification to stop you from doing this and it works and I manage to cash out and withdraw on all of them. PredictIt doesn't even care. It's a law that they have to say no more than $850 per bet, but with a second account you're fine. So effectively no limit to the betting, no.

If that scares you for whatever reason, I guess you could put a family member or a friend's name in or something for a second account but basically you deposit into it and bet and cash out so they don't really ever do anything. Idk I just make multiple accounts.

sport betting guy here

OP is survivor bias

also >10% commission, 5% withdrawal fee

lmao.

I do the Spicer and Priebus getting fired month to month markets now and I have lots of money in the "Will Trump be president at year end 2017?" and some in "Will trump be president at year end 2018?" markets but at about 20 and 30% returns for the year or so those margins are closing up so I don't know if the time to wait is worth it for you, unless you want to buy in and then sell when the price rises.

Personally elections and all that are too risky for me. I just wait on the "Closing Soon" page, checking back a few times a week, to see if there's anything obvious that isn't sold out yet.

Lol no I've never posted in the comments. They're kind of fun to read though I guess.

Here's why I'm ok with the fee though. With this website, if a bet goes sour by some weird circumstance, I can sell my bet and still get a decent percentage of my money back instead of losing the whole thing.

However, I've made 100s of these now and won every single one. If you could make hundreds and hundreds of sports bets and have a 100% track record, I think you would be a millionaire. I only bet on things that are 99% certain or physically impossible not to happen (like is a great example.)

A decent amount of the time it's just arbitrage on things that have already happened.

I really don't think you can do that in sports betting.

Meh, Predictit is not available in my country.

I guess I could just sign up with a US proxy, but could I withdraw my money to a non-US bank account?

If you made 1 loss, how many wins would it take to recover your loss?

Wait, you have to verify your identity, right?

Shit. Is there any way you could use the site from a country they don't support? I'm from Germany btw.

Actually, since I'm from Germany I could just use other betting sites. Is predictit unique in the way it works or can you replicate this on the mayor European sites?

Does anyone have experience with other betting sites and can you exploit liberals on safe bets on those?

what site are you using to place bets?

I can't register because of location. What do you think about getting people's money and do the betting for them? Not that they don't know obvious political flows, particularly right / alt-right woke people. If so tell me, I'm interested.