What does /bizzfeed/ think about this "rule"? The last years I did not, but I should have. Of course it is going to cost me a lot of taxes when I take in some of my wins, but I deem the current climate rather risky. Turkey (though they might as well get a short Trump-ralley now), Syria, Best-Korea, the EU, Trump seems like he is not the superhero everyone thought he is… and so on… …so a lot of folks are waiting for the dip.
So lets say I sell most of my stuff. What do I do then?
I have some Canadian Canabis and Lithium stocks which I would keep, but I don't wanna increase my positions.
I thought getting into crypto (late, I know, but this shit is more or less illegal in Germany. Impossible to get without breaking the law or going somewhere else. But I figured out I can do the latter. A friend of mine moved to Austria, where there are a few ATMs. Now I just have to figure out how to sell them at some point) with a few hundred to thousand €.
Paper Gold seems like an interesting bet for the short term. I dont think the worlds going to end, so that I need physical gold for bartering, but betting on a price rise seems interesting. What is a good gold ETF? Maybe also some gold mining penny stocks for the lulz? What's the current /RHG/ moon-hype?
And what about weapons and arms? Is there any ETFs? Just picking some random companies in a subject I dont know about ain't the wisest idea. Is there any indexes for arms producers? World/US? Assuming Syria and Best-Korea blow up, that seems like an interesting bet.
Defense indexes (or indices?) that I have found so far:
>Dow Jones U.S. Defense Only 10 stocks in it? More diversified than stockpicking, but seems like it is mostly stuff that flies and some companies I don't know. Currently dropping, so I'd rather wait a bit.
>NYSE Arca Defense Index Same as the above, plus 10 more. Over half of it is aerospace. On the one hand, this is nice, because war is mostly in the air and there is potentialy gains from the whole space thing, but on the other hand, they'll probably be affected by civilian air, and those don't look too good.
In both, there are no know handgun manufacturers in there. also, they are purely US companies.
The NYSE Arca defense seems like it is quite interesting, but I would need some small arms/handguns and World/EU manufacturers too. Anyone knows any ETFs for that?
Nice topic... I am also interested My 2 cents: armaments induatries are already fairly expensive. I am not to big a fan of crypto. I already own gold (10% of my Portfolio). I am also thinking about selling my stocks; mostly etfs, consumer goods(Zalando ;)) and smaller bios. I am thinking about staying liquid and buying when an oportunity comes up. My other ideal would bei oil Stocks. Do you Guys also think oilstocks benefit from escalation or are oil Stocks dragged down by somewhat marketcrash?
Aaron Gutierrez
>Zalando Same here. more than doubled my money so far, so I can get out with some nice plus. As always with those things, I am now biting my ass that I thought >its probably tech bubble 2.0, so I don't buy too much when buying it. Oh well, Rocket internet on the other hand…
>Oil Personally, I don't see a future for them. We won't suddenly become carbon neutral, and the chemical industry will always need oil, but the general consensus is that we need to find better sources for energy. So there is some huge divestment going on, which might decrease the value of otherwise well performing companies. And then there is Saudi Aramco, which in part will become public. Proceed with caution.
> >>Zalando >Same here. more than doubled my money so far, so I can get out with some nice plus. As always with those things, I am now biting my ass that I thought >>its probably tech bubble 2.0, so I don't buy too much >when buying it. Oh well, Rocket internet on the other hand…
same here. I am austrian btw and live near the crypto atm but didn t use it so far...
>>Oil >Personally, I don't see a future for them. We won't suddenly become carbon neutral, and the chemical industry will always need oil, but the general consensus is that we need to find better sources for energy. So there is some huge divestment going on, which might decrease the value of otherwise well performing companies. And then there is Saudi Aramco, which in part will become public. >Proceed with caution. I am seeing this more like a short term investment 6month-2a... But i am not sure if oil benfits from military escalation.
I am sorry bitte i don t habe any expirience in military etfs. I thougth about buying european military stocks. My ideal was thats Trump may force european countries to up their military expenses and thats they will mostly buy european. What is your opinion?
Connor Ward
> >I am sorry bitte i don t habe any * I am sorry but i don t have
phone...
Joshua Powell
Haha my phone also adds random s...
Luis Flores
Damn, is there a lot of ways to buy something golden with my broker. Seems like an ETC is my best bet? Eg. ETFS Physical Gold - WKN: A0N62G | ISIN: DE000A0N62G0 I dont wan't to complicate it (and make it more expensive) with hedges and such, I just want to hold the equivalent of a few ounces of au (and maybe some ag and pt too) in my portfolio.
>But i am not sure if oil benfits from military escalation. Well, check the last conflicts (the US went in, they are the big mover) such as Iraq and see what happened. However, Syria has much less oil than iraq, so it does not really compare.
>I thougth about buying european military stocks. My ideal was thats Trump may force european countries to up their military expenses and thats they will mostly buy european. What is your opinion? Well, my opinion is similar, but I am by no means an expert (we are on Veeky Forums, there are no experts here). It seems like stockpicking is the only option, when you want more than just US aerospace and defense. Maybe get me some airbus and Rheinmetall (but they are already quite high!) as well as some gun manufacturer from this link: 247wallst.com/aerospace-defense/2013/01/18/should-investors-encourage-a-gun-etf/
Seems like the well known Euroguns like Glock, Steyr and H&K are private companies.
Jose Cooper
> >>But i am not sure if oil benfits from military escalation. >Well, check the last conflicts (the US went in, they are the big mover) such as Iraq and see what happened. However, Syria has much less oil than iraq, so it does not really compare.
Pic related doesn t look too promising especialy considering that iraq is far more important than syria and afghanistan.
>Seems like the well known Euroguns like Glock, Steyr and H&K are private companies.
Shame
Blake Barnes
Btw are you using degiro?
Christopher Watson
>degiro Whats degiro? I'm using my bank (Volksbank).
Xavier Bennett
Well statistically, stocks only show an average decline in August and September, and that's because there have been some real outlier recessions in those months. That said, if you sell enough stocks in May to get a target mix of Cash and Investments, it would probably be a winning strategy over time. maybe not 100% as good as rebalancing in July, but probably 98% as good.
If you don't mind me asking, what Canadian Cannabis stocks are you holding? I had two stocks on my mind (Tesla Inc. and TD) that I'm getting second thoughts about, so I'm looking for ideas myself.
One stock you might be interested in is TINY - it's basically a nanotechnology incubator/investor, if you're interested in Quantum Computers it's probably the easiest way to gain exposure. That said, it's currently bleeding cash and could run out before its moonshots pay off, so I advise caution.
While I'm not personally looking into weapons ETFs, I would guess you want to look at who's making the cheapest drones - I expect we'll go from the 'smaller fighter jet' model to a 'swarm' model in the next two decades, so whoever's got a handle on that will probably be the leader.
I worked in the oil industry for a while and would also advise caution there. There is so much competition in the industry that a spike in production might not equate to a spike in profits. Also a lot of localized infrastructure that won't be worth the cost of moving when a particular area's cost of production becomes unprofitable.
Colton Stewart
oil prices are propped up. oil is the most worthless abundant thing on the planet. It's coming out of the ground everywhere. The US and canada have more oil than anywhere else.
Jayden Mitchell
>Well statistically, stocks only show an average decline in August and September, and that's because there have been some real outlier recessions in those months. That said, if you sell enough stocks in May to get a target mix of Cash and Investments, it would probably be a winning strategy over time. maybe not 100% as good as rebalancing in July, but probably 98% as good. Yes, the statistics are not as clear cut as the saying makes it. If that were the case and the markets would 100% follow some rules/wisdoms, we would be in a quite different system. That said, as far as I understand it, the statistics do indeed almost always show at least lower growth during those months. And given the current uncertainties and that most markets are at all time heights, selling some stuff seems like a good idea.
>If you don't mind me asking, what Canadian Cannabis stocks are you holding? Canopy growth and Aphria and a bunch of penny bets. Less than 10% of my portfolio, since it seems quite risky. Went in a few months ago, after they turned upwards again, but turns out I bought the high… (pun intended). Should have gone in last year, but ironically, I was in Canada last year and while I could have had access to weed (fucking Vancouver seems to consist of at least 50% weed dispensaries), I couldn't accees my bank. Oh well, if legalization goes through, I probably make up for the losses, and if it won't, there's a few thousand down the drain.
Lincoln Cooper
>oil prices are propped up. cant say much about that >oil is the most worthless abundant thing on the planet. No >It's coming out of the ground everywhere. No >The US and canada have more oil than anywhere else. probably yes.
We do have a lot of oil all over the world, true, but all the easy (and cheap) to get stuff is extracted. Stuff like the US shale plays, Brazilian pre-salts and Canadian tar sands only become economical at a high oil price. So for that, the prizes seem to be rather propped down.
And then there is the whole environmental and climate issue. Trump can go on autistic "Dig coal great again" fits all he want's, but fossil energy is declining.
Of course, there is still money to be made, but the days where you just bought Exxon and called it a day might be over.
Leo Bennett
>oil is collapsing >electric cars are the future >tesla on a mars mission >"hurrrrrr climate change hurrrrrr oil price will rise again"
stay poor if you wanna bet against this trend
Jayden Gray
Where did I mention tesla? They might go up some more, and maybe even be one of those reality defying stocks like apple, but they might as well go down to a realistic price soon.
>>"hurrrrrr climate change hurrrrrr oil price will rise again" Ah, so you are one of those idiots ignoring reality. Anyways: There are two scenarios: Oil will be taxed as hell, so that it is prohibitively expensive. How will oil companies deal with that? Or Oil will simply not be needed in large quantities anymore, so the price drops. How will oil companies deal with that?
As said: there is still money to be made, but personally, I don't know how.
Got it on my radar too, but seems to be very similar to the ones I mentioned here I'll probably give the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF a try, since that is cheap and I can buy it with my bank. But all of them are missing anything at all from outside the US.
James Richardson
Bump from page 7
Kayden Ross
One final try, before I let it die.
Jackson Butler
Monitoring
Benjamin Foster
I agree with everything you're saying. Looking at some gold ETFs to gain some exposure to as well as generally liquify a lot of my holdings in the next few weeks.
not sure exactly what is a good bet in a bearish markey. I was looking at oil as well, but I tend to agree what others have said in this thread about the negative pressures on the industry...
where does that leave us - telecomms / technology normally do ok in bear markets but looking at them they are mostly at all time highs already..after that we have niche markets like you said but i don't want to put money into penny stocks
Lincoln Smith
>where does that leave us hm… > - telecomms / technology normally do ok in bear markets Yeah, there are a lot of companies with potential growth, >but looking at them they are mostly at all time highs already Well, they could go even higher. I'm going to keep my positions for apple and google for now and maybe even add me some amazon, but I'll be closely watching them, ready to jump ship at any moment. Everyone is saying that apple, google and amazon are crazily overvalued since years, but so far, the stocks don't care. >after that we have niche markets like you said but i don't want to put money into penny stocks Penny stocks as in "pure gamble"? No. Penny stocks as in "legit company that is just not worth a lot yet"? Maybe. I'm thinking of adding some shitty gold miners and maybe some security "startups".
Jace Nelson
wish me luck
Zachary Myers
why not the good KRUPPSTAHL
Logan James
Haven't looked into them, but can't you not only buy Thyssen-Krupp or do they have a separate entity for their (marine, iirc) defense operations? I already got enough exposure to (german) steelmakers with a position in Salzgitter.
