1 USDT is now worth $0.95 USD. It has fallen. All prices in USDT are inflated and the currency is likely to go to zero! Bitfinex has been compromised and is LYING to you when you try to log in.
coinmarketcap.com
Look under "Kraken" on that link and see the price of USDT to be about 0.95 USD.
Other urls found in this thread:
tether.to
tether.to
coinmarketcap.com
medium.com
en.wikipedia.org
en.wikipedia.org
twitter.com
what do I sell to now?
Well... it depends.
If you think USDT will stay strong and this is all fluff, despite Bitfinex essentially going insolvent and possibly causing USDT to go to $0, which is what it looks like, similar to the Mt. Gox problems in the past, then you could probably stay in USDT and make a killing just waiting for the hype to die out and buy back all the coins when they're cheap in USDT again.
If you agree that USDT is going to $0 and will never recover from this, pick a coin I guess. Maybe ETH. If you can, go back to USD or something cause any day now Bitfinex, which potentially owns most of the USDT, could announce bankruptcy and USDT shoots to $0. That's what it's looking like right now if you log into their website or look at their announcements.
But that only nets you around 5% max right now - more if USDT gets any lower in Kraken or any other exchange that does USD/USDT. What's really really interesting right now, and a BFX guy mentioned in a post, is the BTC funding market. As people are removing BTC from Bitfinex, the BTC reach incredible funding rates. Many people are acceptin BTC at 0.4% daily rates. If you manage to lend for 30 days (and BFX doesn't pull a Mt.Gox) you gain more than arbitraging them USDTs.
Is this only on Bitfinex?
The BTC lending rate on Polo right now looks like nothing special.
I'm not so concerned with the USDT arbitrage thing than I am with the idea of selling almost all my coins on Polo into USDT and then buying back in a few days when everything should be lower if USDT bounces back to 1:1. If it goes to shit though, then I lose everything. That's kind of what I'm worried about. Thanks for the tip on BFX funding rates.
I'm not so sure how I feel about dumping money into Bitfinex right now though. I'm worried enough holding USDT on Polo.
big if true
Right now you can easily get 0.10% per day in BFX for BTC. But some people are actually accepting the 0.40% rates, it's crazy. I'd say go for it, because even if BFX recovers all trust soon, it can take a while until they get back to sending them wires. I'd wager this is more profitable & secure than arbitraging USDT/USD.
I got 1% per day lending in Polo once for just 2 days about a month ago. Only once but I was pretty happy with it.
considering you can convert your USDT to cash anytime using the tether website its fucking nothing.
the fact that the value is slightly under $1 is due to transaction fees that makes each USDT worth a little bit less than a buck. Unless tether 1. Stops allowing users to convert USDT to cash (which would defeat the whole point) or 2.Raises the fees to an absurd degree, USDT will be fine.
Can you, though? If you could, I'd doubt there was a 5% spread at Kraken USD/USDT (1 USDT for 95 cents).
tether.to
>How do I know my Tether is secure?
>Tethers can be securely stored, sent and received across the blockchain and are redeemable for cash (the underlying asset) pursuant to Tether Limited’s terms of service.
like I just fucking said, the 1:.95 ratio is because of fees, which makes tether worth slightly less than cash.
Look here: tether.to
10 basis points = .1%, so there's a .1% or 20 dollar fee to withdraw your tether into cash, whichever is greater. because of this, USDT is worth a bit less than cash on the open market.
>considering you can convert your USDT to cash anytime using the tether website its fucking nothing
1. If Bitfinex goes insolvent, as it appears they likely will from their site, Tether goes insolvent as well and that features disappears permanently.
2. Those of us who hold USDT in Polo as a means of buying in and out of coins stand to lose a lot.
Regardless, the difference in price between USDT and USD on sites like Polo and Bitfinex compared to, say, Kraken, Gdax, or Bittrex, is huge right now.
If you really believe this, it seems like it would make sense to buy a lot into USDT and buy crypto back when everything corrects itself right?
USDT can now be bought for 92 cents on Kraken.
I REPEAT
USDT now costs 0.92 cents on Kraken!!!!!
Yes, that's probably the "safest" way to arbitrage USD/USDT. There's however the risk is waiting until Tether and/or BFX can send you the wires.
Those 0.1% / $20 fees for converting USDT to USD as a bank wire are/were precisely the fees for wiring USD from BFX because Bitfinex and Tether used the very same banks, and thus they share the very same wiring problems. That's why USDT "crashed" to 0.92 USD at Kraken (from practically 1 back in March) and why BTC is so high in Polo & BFX, which use USDT.
>Bitfinex
Polo has far more as far as I can
coinmarketcap.com
Could someone explain how tether could ever be worth less than a dollar? Isn't it all tied to a bank account somewhere?
It's tied to a bank account, yes. But it costs money to get the money out of said bank account. This fee is the reason USD does not equal USDT.
Sure can do: USDT is tied to Bitfinex's & Tether.io bank account, which two weeks ago could send bank wires by charging 0.1%/$20, whichever is higher. By itself, this trivially means 1 USD = 1 USDT (- 0.1% for high enough volumes).
The current banking situation in Taiwan, where Bitfinex's and Tether.io's parent company is located means that they can't currently make international outgoing bank wires. Read medium.com
Wow, fuck banks. Should I sell my USDT? Currently holding $1000+
Like I said, it's up to you how to play this. If you think this will correct itself, then hold your USDT and everything else will fall very cheap soon. Then you can buy it back up and wait for the correction.
If you think this is permanent, then you should probably buy ETH or something because BTC is already at its all-time-high and ETH is nowhere near that, even with the inflation from USDT, and ETH has much, much faster transaction times than BTC so for people trying to withdraw it seems to have much greater demand.
Up to you how you play this.
I might be wrong, but it's probably equivalent to do ETH or BTC. If there was an advantage in buying ETH with your Bitfinex's USD, then one could do the following: buy ETH at BFX, transfer funds to another exchange, buy BTC with said ETHs, transfer back to BFX, and sell BTCs for USD. Most likely someone already did this until you can't win over the ~0.2% taking fees in exchanges that happen in each exchanging step.
Dump your money in STEEM dollars. Currently $1.08
It is crummy to lend at rates that high. Its probably lending to bots that aren't aware. Its a bad sign for the health of the market. So what if someone is able to make 12% a month lending if a bunch of traders flee.
move your shit to gdax n sell to usd
If BTC is going up, buy BTC. If BTC is going down, Buy ETH or DASH, or some other coin.
btc is going to crash very soon.
proof
bitfinex
>considering you can convert your USDT to cash anytime using the tether website its fucking nothing.
You can't. Tether USD transfers are frozen.
Yes
>that only nets you around 5% max right now
You can increase the profit with 2 hedged margin positions:
Long BTC/USD
Short BTC/USDT
dodged a bullet with usdt, was considering taking profits when btc hit 1250+ before the etf decision, good thing i didn't.
dont think this will affect btc at all though, if anything this is bad news for shitcoin exchanges because most of them dont dare touch real usd and use usdt instead.
Yeah I dropped tether once I saw the fees for conversion on their site
Actual USD on gemini
Kraken uses real USD and EUR, not Tether
Wouldn't that net you some other 5% if the shorts/longs are split1:1, after everything normalizes?
I meant to write 5x leverage.
Anyway, in other words, even though no exchange offers margin trading of USD/USDT, you can do it indirectly with these 2 positions. They can even be on difference exchanges.
All you need is the same leverage on both sides. Appropriate exchanges could be
Kraken long @ 3x leverage
Bitfinex short @ 3.3x leverage
Not perfect but close.
FFS, made mistakes, reposting...
Assuming
1 BTC = 1000 USD
1 BTC = 1050 USDT
and assuming that USDT normalizes back to 1 USD/USDT
You open:
Position 1) long BTC/USD with 5x leverage
Position 2) short BTC/USDT with 5x leverage
... 1 BTC investment each (5 BTC with margin)
3 example scenarios:
* BTC/USD stays flat, USD/USDT normalizes:
Position 1) yields 0
Position 2) yields 5*1050 - 5*1000 = +250 USD
Gain = 250 USD or +25%
* BTC/USD falls by 10%, USD/USDT normalizes:
Position 1) yields 5*900 - 5*1000 = -500 USD
Position 2) yields 5*1050 - 5*900 = +750 USD
Gain = 250 USD or +25%
* BTC/USD rises by 10%, USD/USDT normalizes:
Position 1) yields 5*1100 - 5*1000 = +500 USD
Position 2) yields 5*1050 - 5*1100 = -250 USD
Gain = 250 USD or +25%
Litecoin used to be my stable safe box, then it mooned. Great investment. But I don't know where to put my profits now.
>buying crypto fiat instead of crypto bullion
You all deserve to lose your money
Unless BFX goes under ;) But yes, I forgot leverage, duh.
Disclaimer: I did not study finance and thought about this hedge intuitively. But it seems to be correct:
en.wikipedia.org
I'm tempted to try it because I believe Tether and Bitfinex will recover.
Apparently the aforementioned plan is called "Long/short equity [hedge]"
en.wikipedia.org
>A hedge fund might sell short one automobile industry stock, while buying another—for example, short $1 million of DaimlerChrysler, long $1 million of Ford. With this position, any event that causes all auto industry stocks to fall will cause a profit on the DaimlerChrysler position and a matching loss on the Ford position. Similarly, events that cause both stocks to rise—for example a rise in the market as a whole—will have little or no effect on the position.
>Presumably the hedge fund has sold DaimlerChrysler and bought Ford because the manager expects Ford to perform better. If the manager is correct, the fund should profit irrespective of market and sector moves.
Replace Ford with USDT
DaimlerChrysler with USD
and the auto industry with BTC
It does sound pretty much correct, BUT an important caveat: it will only work if Bitfinex soon gains back trust from the community (say, an audit happens by a very trustworthy auditing company) and/or if they start again doing wire transfers. There is a possibility that USDT to keep falling in the short term, in which case you could be liquidate in either your long, your short, or both, depending on the BTC/USD price, so that's the risk you're working with, I think, even if Bitfinex eventually recovers all trust. You would be betting on Bitfinex and/or USDT recovering all trust soon. I'd say go lend some BTC ;) the rates are currently 0.4% daily.
Could this be used to reduce the risk of trading altcoins vs BTC price movements?
Say you expect ETH/BTC to perform better than XRP/BTC,
but BTC/USD changes are unforeseeable.
When you simply buy ETH and BTC rises, you lose potential gains.
But when you long ETH/BTC and short XRP/BTC, you're reducing the risk
This allows you, in effect, to trade currency pairs that no exchange provides, in this case ETH/XRP
100% agreed. This would be effectively betting on Bitfinex and Tether. If it fails, the result could be catastrophic.
The technique can be used without leverage to factoring out market movements (see my last post)
You can trade PIVX/DOGE if you want, effectively :)
>0.4% daily.
That's insane. Over 400% per year compounded.
Thanks for the tip. I wasn't aware of the high rates
Eh, you'll at most get some 30-60 days, but yes, they're quite amazing :)