So what happened in 2008 anyway? Surely it wasn't that bad

That's exactly what people said before 2008

Same bro fuck these poor cunts

There will be a mini recession once the business cycle ends.

I want to believe this but I dont want to rent for 24 months only to be wrong and waste money and have to pay more to get a house

yep, recessions are a regular event.

2008 wasn't a regular recession though.

2008 was the culmination of a whole lot of fuckery. I'll try to sum it up in bullet points to make it quick and easy.

Problem 1) Unsophisticated consumers were taking out idiotic mortgages at high adjustable rates that they should have never accepted

Problem 2) Lenders were chasing short term profits by lending riskier sub-prime loans to unsophisticated consumers because they offered higher interest rates (and way more risk)

Problem 3) The Securitization folks and Bond Rating Agencies packaged these subprime mortgages into financial assets that were very risky, yet were rated and treated as safer assets

Problem 4) The fact that the risk of these assets wasn't properly accounted for lead to the value of such assets being grossly inflated on the balance sheets of the Banks that held them. This allowed banks to use these (over-valued) assets as leverage to take on more margin.

So eventually housing prices start to decline, people start to default and the result is that the value of these securities that were leveraged to the tits nosedived in value, banks became insolvent, savers lost their retirements and all of these things and a few more factors dragged the entire economy into a downward spiral.

The thing about economics and the leverage cycle is that once the market starts going down due to any given factor, it can start an entire cycle of less consumption, employee layoffs, plummeting stock prices, etc.

I'm not a muritard and I remember that's what happened to you and other european countries. Prices were spiking and real state was only going up.

oil price spiked
short term interest rates were raised very quickly.
nobody could afford mortgage
subprime mortgages, Junk mortgage debt, which became popular due to government sponsored enterprises Fannie mae and freddie mac, all defaulted.

credit locked up, fed monetized all the debt. some firms went bankrupt, others were absorbed by more solvent banks.

There was a general "what the fuck is going on" thought. Companies jumped on this chance and were laying people off like crazy due to the "bad economy", and it all kind of cascaded. Some places weren't hit that bad (Texas in general), and some places were annihilated (California). The market after lehman was seeing 4-5% daily swings, sometimes back to back for a week at a time.

Any ideas on June fed rate hike? I think the Canadian and Australian RE markets will collapse long before that, due natural cyclical, prices are already plateauing. Shitpostercountry contagion might affect us burgers. Given wobbly markets in EU and Asia this will trigger a reaction. The question is when and how big though, any ideas? I'm already hedging my portfolio 17% T-bill 4w which are selling at a decent premium already, should I increase?

I was on my trading platform while the sp500 hit the intraday low for the downturn.

You know what it was? 666.

it really depends on the price of oil. The price of oil determines economic activity for the most part. An overheated economy will drive up the price of oil, as dollars buy it up.

So if oil breaks 60, we will have 2 more rate increases this year. if it doesn't, we will only have 1.

Oil was then a speculative boom.
Short term yes, commercial rates. Thus too many missed payments - > foreclosures, backed securities ate the loss. Fannie Mae was mostly to blame. Firms that imploded were just fireworks for when Bernanke floored ffr and bailed out firms with toxic at above market price. I think the step in was mostly a clever GS way to kill Lehmen, it was definitely BO of competition especially when they got free cash and ever since, current market has been growing faster than 2000 - 07 less competition.

BOA and GS were by no means solvent at the height of foreclosures nor WF or a half a dozen others. They bet on Ben with also Greenspan popcorn gallery.

But it's not a safe hedge as was thought the belief, supply glug. If people hedge I doubt it be this in the next three years. Oil has been a downward spiral with speculated 'rises' the last year or so, and it has taken till 16-17 for any real 'growth' to be actually reported. I don't trust it as an indicator.

Gold is a speculative mess so I'm never sure of that.

Got any others? College kid here, I don't have experience outside of what I can gather on forums and professors. The later include a day trader and 3 Austrians, bleagh, but they do recommend some good books.

Aus or Canada sell. You guy are on a 3-4 year peak. And it's been slowing

Lol I remember S&P fell 10% within less a week. What was damage control? Secure enough to have some cash to plug losses then hold long or dump like mfckers?

and what they were saying long before it and after it

hedge gainst what? rising interest rates? inflation? crashing market?

preferred shares are one idea... look into that. buffet loves them, along with healthy and large dividend paying stocks (which he holds 'forever')