Technical Analysis

Let's settle it once and for all in this thread. Is technical analysis just a meme or can it be used to make educated estimates of what an asset will do?

Totally useless time and again. Not logical to think that you could possibly estimate anything

One vote for educated estimate.

I took a TA course taught by a high level analyst and at the end of it I thought it was basically like astrology and phrenology. You could always look back at a pattern and rationalize how it predicted what came next but going forward in real time, it is impossible to predict

All that means is that the analyst was an idiot.

>All that means is that the analyst was an idiot.
Or that you're an idiot for believing in it.

>I'm voting on the second option.

Kek is speaking here. But what does he mean by highlighting nonbelievers?


1 Vote for it works kinda, on longer term scales and without much whale interference

>Notice how every TA fag sounds like a complete moron....

Usable TA is pretty much pattern recognition. As with all things in nature, patterns aren't concrete and can vary through time and situations. Some people get too hooked thinking
>it did the red loopy-d-loop, that means it HAS to go up

The market doesn't HAVE to do anything. And even if the red loopy-d-loop did signal the stock going up, it does NOT mean that the red loopy-d-loop caused the stock to go up. Use it as a tool and don't try to project rationalizations and causation onto the patterns.

There are ways of statistically verifying that certain patterns (signals) imply certain things about the future. Most people who buy into TA aren't smart enough to realize this, so they come up with meme patterns that don't actually work. TA is certainly viable at high frequencies and statistically verified models.

Humans basically try to look for patterns in fucking everything. It's why we have religions. Doesn't mean you can use past patterns to predict the future.

tl;dr: TA is for fags.

Not entirely bullshit. You can detect if a stock is being pumped and ride in on the volatility. Won't tell you whether it'll go up or down though.

>Support
>Resistance
>Volume
>Possible future fundamental drivers
That's all you need.

Really?

We can't predict the future trajectory of a rocket of a launched from a certain position with a certain acceleration?

Similarly we can model the human mind, and the emergent behaviors of groups of human minds. The market is getting more and more efficient.

Comparing rocket that us controlled by physics to stock market that it's controlled by human decisions.

I bet physics are easier to predict than decisions of millions of people.

Shots fired

TA is moronic.There might be some types of exploits being taken advantage of by supercomputers, but anything on tradeview or some charting software cannot predict how much money and when people are likely to buy, I could go on for hours.

i trade crypto using TA and am up 350% so far this year, eat my dick everyone

Confirmation/survivorship bias

i found a strategy that works.
a common misconception is that people who use TA are predicting when a security will move, this is false. The idea is to be right big, and to be wrong small. Being right more often helps too. When i place a buy i have no idea when the chart will move, i just know that it will eventually, and odds are i will win when i do.

Physics literally is easier to predict than TA bs. Mainly because it adheres to laws. Patterns on a chart don't. The adhere to statistics and self fulfilled prophecies.

Still use them though. Should probably just kms.

Daaaamn.
How much did you lose?

Implying the most successful traders there are records of didn't rely on TA. Case in point, Ed Seykota.

Trend-following, faggots. Slow and steady wins the race. Shove your smart fundamentals up your ass.

You can use it to time entries. I'm not sure it can beat buy & hold.

they've been making fun of chartism since the day someone came up with that bullshit

the modern day equivalent shit is probably momentum investing and smart beta

The pros use 80% fundamentals and 20% technicals. Obviously they trade on longer timeframes. Fundamentals are used to predict direction and technicals for timing the entry.

Every book I've read is like this. Kathy Lien uses double bollinger bands and when all four cross she goes in.
The wisdom behind it is being intentionally late to a trade, waiting for confirmation that a certain pattern is in place. It's not fullproof, but it doesn't need to be as long as you have money management and manage to make a good enough call on the fundamentals, news, etc.
For instance, in forex you can't see it on your broker platform but the forex market actually runs on weekends too, it's just more data the broker doesn't pay for. It's why when the price opens on aussie time it can already be 200 or so pips in one or another direction.