I want a serious discussion on this if possible. Will cryptos dip or peak in a financial crisis?
In the picture is prices of gold for the last 15 years. If you look at the 2008 crisis you will notice that it dipped substantially. Will the same thing happen to cryptos or will they instead moon?
Any arguments put forward are appriciated
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why would people want useless digital bits in a recession? that's when people would be trying to cash out their savings
There's a possibility that cryptos could dip during bad times because cryptos can't buy food when you're jobless. People will cash out to fiat to stay alive.
Gold is held to maintain its value. The selling in 2008 would have occurred as people moved money from gold in to increasingly cheap stocks.
I can't imagine cryptos being a safe haven asset. The more likely alternative is that an exchange becoming insolvent fucks up the crypto market, and then its a question of whether BTC takes off as everyone rushes for the safe haven crypto, or crashes itself as people rush to cash out.
A more apt comparison would be what happened in forex markets, but that's a difficult task because real currencies function fundamentally differently than cryptos.
In the 2008 crisis, there was a bit of a push into USD from foreign currencies as it was seen as a safe haven. If you look at a chart of gold/EUR at the end of 2008 an start of 2009, it looks somewhat different.
I'd imagine cryptos that are considered a store of value like BTC or ETH will do well relative to currencies that are not USD. Speculative cryptos will get crushed.
Would that mean that holding alt-coins long isn't very wise at the moment if you predict a future crisis? And that BTC is the only logical option as it's too big to fail?
>predicting a crisis after a crisis
The idea of Bitcoin was born during the financial crisis. It was engineered for safety and security when a financial crisis hits. Argentinians started buying Bitcoin. People that live in a country that suffers political crises are flocking to Bitcoin.
techcrunch.com
Tech-savvy countries such as Singapore, Japan, Switzerland are adapting their laws for Bitcoin
I don't think the dip in gold is as substantial when you consider what the dow, Nasdaq, and s&p 500 were doing at the time. Most of the drop in gold can be chalked up to sell orders flooding the market as folks got laid off or tried trade in for the "winner" stocks rather than actual loss of value. Check out where gold was by its peak in 2012 compared to the securities market, which was just regaining its losses from the recession
And when looking at whether crypto will hold value I think we need to distinguish between recession and crisis. The likes of BTC may be alright, though it seems dicey to me compared to precious metals. A true crisis will see a total default on crypto as it exists today.
predicting shit is generally a bad move, as you lose gains sitting in the sidelines. It's more that bitcoin may see a flight to safety should something happen in the crypto market as it's still the easiest to cash out with.
It's only a gain when you sell it. If you keep holding and holding until a financial crisis it won't no longer matter what potential gains you had, if it all goes below your initial buy price.
> because cryptos can't buy food when you're jobless
Wrong.
thebitcoinnews.com
(((They))) are already giving out food with crypto using biometrics to identify them with. It's been tested in a few countries on refugees. If they like it, expect welfare nigs and FEMA to use the same system in the future.
Yeaaaaaa, I don't think I want to be Sudan level poor just to use cryptos to buy food. I'm talking first world.
Are you dense or just can't be bothered to read an article?
Poor niggers in Jordan are using Ethereum. What's your point? I don't want to be a poor nigger so I can spend Ethereum in a crisis.
To any non downie fags ITT, if there were a financial crisis (or any crisis) wouldn't ETH's price either rise or stay consistent given that ETH is being used to help people in crisis situations? And why wouldn't new developers use the same concept and expand upon it when they see a crisis in their own lifetime?
I imagine there is a big incentive to market your coin as a safehaven during a financial crisis. I imagine it's gotta be one of the bigger ones, and at the moment ETH looks to be the best contender
It dipped briefly due to liquidity - people needed cash to satisfy their debts because their other assets dwindled to nothing.
Look at the long-term for what really happened. People wanted an asset that was less susceptible to manipulation. Crypto provides that plus more. We'll see a similar thing play out when the current debt bubble bursts again.
ETH can dip like gold, you mongoloid. You think ETH can pay your mortgage and buy food at a supermarket when you're jobless? People are going to cash out like mad.
Gold and ETH are probably some of the least central bank (inflation) dependent commodities. Your logic is not sound.
plummet, there value is based on tech in a crisis tech will plummet all tech items fail in the fall.
Crises don't always involve inflation. You also didn't answer whether gold or ETH can buy you food or a roof over your head.
No fucking shit it'll dip due to panic selling. Try to keep up FFS.
To expand on that, we can look at a modern and on going example in Venezuela.
reuters.com
Unless all countries involved with crypto fell at once, it can be a better option than trading against another currency or the black market. There's even some starving Venezuelans that started selling "Rare Pepes" to increase their income in that socialist hellhole. I haven't looked into further and only assumed it worked more like donations rather than an investment. But I thought the idea of using crypto that way was pretty cool.
>You also didn't answer whether gold or ETH can buy you food or a roof over your head.
Gold can. That's the main reason people buy it. As insurance for the worst situation when paper money becomes worthless. And the same goes for ETH as long as you have connection to the internet.
I consider myself a normie among bizlets here. I see the value in an economic crisis. Things online are cheaper to buy....I can't wire gold. As long as businesses adopt to cryptos sooner as opposed to later in a crisis (which I suspect they would because fiat money would be become worth less and less) you would see crypto bounce back within months. I do believe everyone's first instinct would be to get as much fiat as possible and a lot of people would sell....and that would be the time to buy. My neighbors don't go to pet smart for their dog food....they go to chewy.com. I still got to the store but I like getting breaks from my family. My father in law orders auto parts online because its cheaper than the store....I think more people shop online now more than ever....in a economic crisis situation I don't think that's likely to change if anything it may only get stronger....you can't get robbed in the parking lot for example. But I am only considering a economic down turn that's like 2008 or mildly worse. I Don't think planning for the apocalypse type of scenarios matters....it more likely someone kicks in your door shots you and steals all your stuff if you're planning for that stuff (long term power grid failure etc)