there is no doubt that blockchain and cryptocurrencies will revolutionize our monetary system or at least offer highly efficient transactions.
but it's evident that large amounts flow in crypto (doubling market cap in 18 d, doge has a 430 million $ market cap?!) and a high proportion goes in shitcoin (XRP)
when will the bubble burst? what are you going to do when it bursts? you should just buy the dip.
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When the market cap hits several trillion, it might turn into a bloodbath with a lot of coins
what makes you think it will burst ? I think you'd be safe as long as you keep your money in btc, eth or xrp
People do realize the entire marketcap of crypto is equivalent to a big S&P 500 company now right? It's just getting started.
when the market understands how overvalued most of the shitcoins are (even for good projects there is no actual usage atm) the bubble will burst imo. maybe all at the same time. this could also effect big boys like BTC, ETH, altough yes i think they are quite a safe bet (compared to most). and yea, i agree, as long as you dont panic sell you should be good on the long run.
XRP is one of the shitcoins i was talking about.
the market cap is not the problem - it's what coins are making up the market cap
There's the saying that money is just a bubble that doesn't burst. And I think that's fairly right.
As long as people have faith in the number of bitcoins and the cryptographic security of its elements, they'll have faith that others will accept it, and that faith alone gives value (proportional to the number of people onboard).
With something like Ethereum and other non-shitty ICOs, the value isn't from the network believing "X coin is money" but from being involved with the core mission (creating smart contracts, being paid to watch ads, storing files in a decentralized manner).
And as you mentioned, BTC, ETH, ZCH, etc have straight up advantages over the current monetary system. ACH and wire transfers take literal days because the government is a nanny state and banks still run COBOL. Businesses have to pay 1-3% of every credit card transaction to Amex or Visa (and that's if the accounts are in whatever fiat the country uses, forget exchanging money internationally!) Value the crypto advantage at half a percent and it's not much, but we're talking outcompeting the entire financial system.
That said, it's definitely got parallels to the 90s dot-com boom. Pets.com, Webvan, and other shit proliferated and failed (even if their business model eventually proved correct). Outside the pillars, you'll have pointless shitcoins with garbage teams proliferate and sucker in people. There's literally no way to guess the actual top of the bubble though.
Just remember, eventually the internet did deliver and the bubble did recover. And what would you give for 90s stock prices of Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft?
>when the market understands how overvalued most of the shitcoins are (even for good projects there is no actual usage atm) the bubble will burst imo
in 2014, most altcoins started to lose value, and only gained value again with this new BTC boom.
the market realized that a long time ago, and it didn't really matter
I absolutely agree on what you say, but you cannot forget that to quick increases in price (im talking about coins with no solid background or at least a quite useless coin (XRP)) can really cause a bubble to burst. maybe its only one coin, but what happens if the market cap continous to grow exponentially, money keeps flowing into quite some different shitcoins? (there are lots of them, we all know that) it could effect the whole market, maybe just boost the solid ones in the hand (which would be nice for me personally)
even in the worst case scenario im seeing no problem for example ETH (let's assume that their development keeps going like this)
let's not be blind about potential dangers in the market
i think so too. my thinking is that it's safer than fiat at this point, and this is exactly what the appeal of it is.
it's fiat against blockchain. depends on you where you place your bets. but one is going to likely kill the other in the future.
Quick increases are a necessary, but not sufficient criteria for bubble bursts. You also need the asset to surpass near-future intrinsic value and hot money to bid up beyond that.
Say 20% of the population has enough liquid assets to invest. Once they're all aware of something, and another 10% who don't have capital join them on margin, then you're looking at saturation and a bubble pop.
Non-BTC crypto is at, like, 0.5% right now. And everyone involved with any real amount of money knows the difference between Bitbean and Bitcoin.
I won't worry till they make ETFs of the stuff and CNBC flashes the ticker.
>People do realize the entire marketcap of crypto is equivalent to a big S&P 500 company now right? It's just getting started.
Companies generate wealth and returns value to shareholders. Cryptos are entirely speculative and dependent on someone buying them at a higher price. It's not comparable.
I've been watching DOGE slip .000200 USD over the course of an hour or two wishing I had sold but now I feel as if I have a tiger by the tail. I saw it at .004040 or so and I now i have that number in my head. I feel that if I sell now I am cheating myself.
This. Cryptos are literally a ponzi scheme.
See There's value to crypto and the networks they unlock just like there's value to gold, wheat, or TSLA.
yes, ofc, it's not happening necessarily, that's why I'm saying there is a chance of that happening, I also agree that an actual bubble is way down the road, however increases for some coins are just worrying.
>everyone involved with any real amount of money knows the difference between Bitbean and Bitcoin
they do know the difference, but a quite high proportion does not know what the heck they are going to do with their XRP they just bought (15 % of the total market cap atm)
>There's value to crypto and the networks they unlock just like there's value to gold, wheat, or TSLA.
Except gold, wheat, and TSLA generate wealth. They are used productively. Buying bitcoins at a higher does not reflect anything fundamentally. Bitcoin is not a company that is growing bigger. Money is not being GENERATED by bitcoin. Bitcoin is PURELY speculative and zero sum.
Except you can get out whenever you want, ergo it isn't a ponzi scheme
>Except you can get out whenever you want, ergo it isn't a ponzi scheme
That's not the definition of a ponzi scheme. A ponzi scheme is simply any scheme that does not generate any capital and simply transfers more and more money to the early adopters ergo Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme.
Bullshit, stocks are just as much speculative nowadays. It's why you have companies like Twitter or Snapchat which can't find ways to make money yet being valuated in the billions
>anything that benefits early adopters is a ponzi scheme
>anything that benefits early adopters is a ponzi scheme
No, anything that does not generate capital or wealth is a ponzi scheme. Can Bitcoin be used to create wealth? Can I use it to make wires like gold? Can I use it to make food like wheat? Can I use it to make electric cars like TESLA? Earthly commodities and companies have real uses. As for Bitcoin, I can't do anything with bitcoin EXCEPT sell it to the next sucker at a higher price.
But thats why no one takes companies like that seriously.
If you're value investing into companies that have lasted for the past 100 years and companies that will last another 100 years, you will make A LOT of money.
This is why I am hesitant to invest any money into cryptocurrencies. It doesn't generate anything of value, it's extremely volatile, and I don't really want to be checking prices 24/7 because you really need to day trade these cryptocurrency pump and dumps to make money.
XRP does have the intrinsic value of enhancing/replacing current institutional money transfer methods. It doesn't compete on the smaller "buy weed from the darknet" market, but it's not a 0 value PnD. You're on to something though, that the further we get from Bitcoin, the more liable people are to buying without grasping what they're buying.
Gold's actual use in industry and as a medium of exchange pales in comparison to its use as a store of value.
Similarly bitcoin's use as a faster, pseudonymous, lower fee method of transferring money pales in comparison to its use as a store of value. The point is to sell it to the next sucker *at the same price*.
this month. eventually 1st week of june. just look at the beautiful hype chart of global crypto marketcap.
Exactly. Greater fool theory. Many people do the same thing with stocks but ultimately lose out to long term value investors that invest money into valuable companies that provide goods and services that people can't live without. (Amazon, Google, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, etc etc etc)
There's a thing called backing, and whatever monetary bubble there is, be it Jewish dollars or Maori shells, not only has to be viewed as valuable by the masses, it also has to be used in real transactions. Among crypto coins, only Bitcoin has at least some backing, and it's mostly drugs (which is not really good from a reputation standpoint). Even Etherium is basically a fad, it's backed by nothing but faith in the technology behind it.
>Gold's actual use in industry and as a medium of exchange pales in comparison to its use as a store of value.
That is irrelevant. The fact is that earthly commodities can be used productively makes investing in them not a Ponzi scheme.
>The point is to sell it to the next sucker *at the same price*.
That is mathematically impossible. You cannot sell at the *same price* because there are transaction costs. IT IS MATHEMATICAL FACT that you MUST always sell to the next sucker at a higher price.
>there is no doubt that blockchain and cryptocurrencies will revolutionize our monetary system or at least offer highly efficient transactions.
It isn't really that efficient and it won't scale.
The way I see it governments will eventually [10-20 years maybe] get into digital electronic money and force businesses and taxes to be paid in their electronic system. Something like cryptocurrencies will continue to exists as a fringe way for buying drugs/illegal activity but they will attempt to stomp it out.
BTC and ETH are CLEARLY going to have a correction, anyone who ever traded stocks can tell you this
Stocks themselves are still inherently a fugazzi, it's money conjured up out of thin air created by outsiders valuating a company.
I.e. just because Apple's stock is worth almost $1 trillion doesn't mean they actually created an extra $1 trillion in wealth and locked it all up in a vault ready to be spent. Sure they've made a shit ton of money in revenue and profit but stock values themselves are not income pooled from real-world earnings, in essence it is just as much "magic money" to be traded in a game just like crypto.
Come on, son.
A stock is valued as the PV of all future cash flows of the company.
By your definition, those cotton and linen sheets of paper known as dollar bills are completely useless. I mean, except for paying US government taxes, what good are they?? Spoiler: It's a ponzi scheme that never actually ponzis.
Gold's store of value function comes out of the fact that it doesn't spontaneously decay and the mining rate is far more predictable than government printing presses are. Which is also exactly the case with bitcoin as a store of value.
As for transaction costs, swiping your credit card costs money, wire transfers cost money, shipping gold costs money. The mere existence of transaction fees doesn't make gold flakes or bitcoins spontaneously decay.
Then I think we agree? Bitcoin has some amount of backing and use. It also has demand going in and out of fiat. Right now, that's enough to support its use case as a store of value. On Ethereum, we'll have to agree to disagree.
>Gold
>Wires
Lmao
This is what's happening.
So you're rewarding yourself with "free stock moneyz" based on what the company MIGHT earn in the future, yeah that is fucking money conjured out of nowhere. I can't just go to my boss and ask them to pay me next year's salary because I know I will earn it.
If stock values were actual real wealth and not just fictitious money on paper, than a whale cashing out 30-40% of a company's stock wouldn't crash it overnight. All it's value is held up by a market belief in the company much like fiat currency.
I think that there are a lot of people here that do not realize what a cypto bubble burst entails.
There is no regulation, you will not be able to sell, or short for that matter, since all the exchanges will crash.
>By your definition, those cotton and linen sheets of paper known as dollar bills are completely useless. I mean, except for paying US government taxes, what good are they?? Spoiler: It's a ponzi scheme that never actually ponzis.
You are retarded dude. Nobody invests in the USD The USD is a currency. Of course it's useless. It's only worth is to give value to goods and services that it represents. Bitcoin on the other hand does not give value to anything EXCEPT ITSELF.
>Gold's store of value function comes out of the fact that it doesn't spontaneously decay and the mining rate is far more predictable than government printing presses are. Which is also exactly the case with bitcoin as a store of value.
Gold can also be used productively. Bitcoin does not have productive use. Try to keep along and remember our conversation.
>As for transaction costs, swiping your credit card costs money, wire transfers cost money, shipping gold costs money. The mere existence of transaction fees doesn't make gold flakes or bitcoins spontaneously decay.
LOL, where the fuck did I say anything by decay? Transaction costs for everything means someone has to sell something at higher price to make money. The difference is that a lot of goods and services generate wealth. Bitcoin can ONLY be used to sell at a higher price to the next sucker WITHOUT generating any wealth. It can only siphon money.
hit me with that fat logic bruh
>Bitcoin has some amount of backing and use. It also has demand going in and out of fiat. Right now, that's enough to support its use case as a store of value.
The problem is, the major motivation for people to use Bitcoin is STILL trading (i.e. to buy and sell to someone else), and its volume is not even nearly matched to the amount of actual exchange of goods and services done with it. This is not the case of gold. Basically, make Bitcoin or any other crypto backed economically, and it's good to go. Right now, it's headed for a burst.
>based on what the company MIGHT earn in the future
Go be 12 somewhere else
All the previous BTC crashes occurred when there were only a handful of BTC exchanges though and 100% of them were shady. The coin is much more distributed globally now and alot more exchanges that, while not necessarily regulated in theory, still have the government prying into their books and watching over their shoulder.
It will have a correction but the odds of seeing a 50-90% crash like previous years is getting slimmer.
Bitcoin has real value because its against gov slavery.....thats in itself could support it to neverend
>Nobody invests in the USD
What is forex?
>It's only worth is to give value to goods and services that it represents.
So USD is guaranteed to be accepted for taxes. And bitcoin is guaranteed to be accepted for drugs. Everything else in between is negotiable.
>Bitcoin does not have productive use.
Its productive use is being faster, more convenient, and more anonymous in transactions than gold while still retaining gold's non-arbitrary inflation. I'm sorry you don't consider moving value productive, but I guess you're not an investor in banks or FedEx.
>By your definition, those cotton and linen sheets of paper known as dollar bills are completely useless. I mean, except for paying US government taxes, what good are they?? Spoiler: It's a ponzi scheme that never actually ponzis.
You just stated it yourself, the fact that everyone conducting legal commerce has to pay taxes is exactly what generates guaranteed demand and value for that paper. As long as your being taxed in it you're going to need it.
>Gold's store of value function comes out of the fact that it doesn't spontaneously decay and the mining rate is far more predictable than government printing presses are. Which is also exactly the case with bitcoin as a store of value.
Gold isn't like bitcoin because it has actual industrial purposes and thousands of years of history as an ornament, bitcoin doesn't have any property that guarantees it needs to have value beyond it having a fixed supply and it's trendy, the supply of dirt on earth is fixed but it won't get you a big return.
>As for transaction costs, swiping your credit card costs money, wire transfers cost money, shipping gold costs money. The mere existence of transaction fees doesn't make gold flakes or bitcoins spontaneously decay.
Something can/will come along that has less transaction costs and is more convenient than bitcoin for the user.
How can you not fail to realize a stock IPO is people throwing their money into a pile and literally making a market? Did Ali Baba take all their stockpile of cash and turn it into stock when they went public? No! It's outside money coming in and trading it based off a 3 letter aconym.
How can a fucking company's value DOUBLE in one day for instance?
Lots of people are currently buying into bitcoin, its almost at fade status more liberal finance guys are getting on board with it.
In general the biggest selling point of crypto is that it is decentralized. Most people cannot buy or exchange it without getting a third party involved once again, exchanges, wallets etc.
All coins are based on bitcoin doing well, all of them. satoshi nakamoto is an idealist, he cut all ties with his project leaders when he confirmed that he talked to the CIA. Everybody has heard of bitcoin, everybody is riding the wave. satoshi nakamoto is going to see his brain child become a agent of control through exchanges, banks and wallets. Defeating the entire purpose of what he made it for and when everybody is on a high with the new era in finance he is going to pop that bubble with the amounts he still has and it will be biblical, he will satisfy his ego and "evil capitalists" will be dealt a massive blow.
Banks and other traditional finance mediums will come to the rescue and save the day by offering a safe and more stable cryptocurrency.
As someone who started out investing a very small amount of fiat, already cashed out what I put in all those years ago, and has just been reinvesting the profits all this time, is there any particular reason I should be worried about a crash?
I mean, the worst thing that could happen is that I miss the chance to liquidate everything for USD and buy back the dip. If the crypto bubble bursts, BTC, ETH and altcoins will crash together in unpredictable proportions, but I'll still hold the currencies even if they fall back to last year's level, I'll still be able to do trades to fill my bags with reliable coins. And then they will rise again as they inevitably do.
So yeah, this seems like a pretty stupid time to invest your life savings (wait for a bear trap), and you might want to cash out like 10% to secure these ephemeral gains, but why should anyone be worried if the bubble bursts? You enjoyed crazy gains on the way up, just be smart and trade advantageously on the way down so you can enjoy even bigger gains next year.
>quite useless
>xrp
Choose one. XRP has a working use case. Just because it doesnt cater to the needs of day traders didn't make it "useless". It's not competing with eth or btc. It's paving its own path and coming out successful.
>Inb4 muh centralized, bank owned jewcoin
Does it matter if it makes you massive profits?
>What is forex?
Mathematically zero sum. Not even the meme zero sum but actual zero sum. Are you going to name off some ponzi schemes as legitimate just because there's a market for it?
>Its productive use is being faster, more convenient, and more anonymous in transactions than gold while still retaining gold's non-arbitrary inflation. I'm sorry you don't consider moving value productive, but I guess you're not an investor in banks or FedEx.
Oh, I'm sorry I wasn't aware that the vast vast majority of Bitcoin's volume involves buying goods and services and not speculation. So no, it does not have any productive use because all your points are irrelevant to what it is ACTUALLY being used for: speculation.
>You just stated it yourself, the fact that everyone conducting legal commerce has to pay taxes is exactly what generates guaranteed demand and value for that paper. As long as your being taxed in it you're going to need it.
What's more stable: a random government of your choosing or the human demand for illegal things? Check back in 1000 years.
>Gold isn't like bitcoin because it has actual industrial purposes
So the floor on gold is, say, $50. At $50 an ounce, we'd use gold wires (lol ). At the same time, the floor on bitcoin comes from its use as "easier to buy drugs with than writing a check", say it's $50 a coin. Neither asset has to or in the near future will trade at $50.
>Something can/will come along that has less transaction costs and is more convenient than bitcoin for the user.
Yes, competition exists. So do network effects. But now you're just saying its value will decline, not that it's 0.
>Being this technologically illiterate
You know gold wires are heavily used in electronics to power the internet right? I don't expect much from teenagers on this board.
no use people would start all over with better techs
My post all speculation though but satoshi nakamoto is an idealist, idealists are not rational. This is something nobody seems to be giving attention too though.
just look at the graphs
BTC and ETH both headed for a double top or head and shoulders, one of those two...
>What's more stable: a random government of your choosing or the human demand for illegal things? Check back in 1000 years.
There's 196 countries, I don't know how many of them issue their own currency but ya most of them aren't going to be that stable because of their position in the international system of trade. The currency of strong states will be more predictable than bitcoin on a reasonable time scale.
>So the floor on gold is, say, $50. At $50 an ounce, we'd use gold wires (lol ). At the same time, the floor on bitcoin comes from its use as "easier to buy drugs with than writing a check", say it's $50 a coin. Neither asset has to or in the near future will trade at $50.
Its floor is $0 because it has no intrinsic property that can't be provided by something else.
>Yes, competition exists. So do network effects. But now you're just saying its value will decline, not that it's 0.
It can enter a death spiral when a real threat comes along and its floor will be $0 unlike gold which will always have some value.
you're right, it has a use case. however it is not what ppl think it is going to be (BTC reloaded), which makes it highly overvalued. don't you agree?
>Inb4 muh centralized, bank owned jewcoin
>Does it matter if it makes you massive profits?
I'm a crypto enthusiast, that's why I'm actually thinking and writing about dangers/bullshit I see out there. I think being a little more critical would help us all
what does that mean
BTC provides me with a way to not give the bank 30 fucking euro when I do an international wire transfer.
So I'd say that's some fucking intrinsic value right there
they mark the top of a bull run
What can I read for the most concentrated education on technicals like this?
you don't want bulls running, unless it's for entertainment
>Nobody invests in the USD
You know governments don't actually invest in USD right? They got them because USA bought their goods in USD. They also got them because they buy American bonds. So no, people don't invest in USD per se. Only retards do that in forex and that's a zero sum game.
Bulls = Buyers
Bears = Sellers
it means that the top of the hype is never a stable price. it is fucking bound to correct. It is how it works, no matter what the subject is wether memestocks, grandpastocks or any other investment.
Two reasonable questions are when its going to happen and how deep its going to be. About the 1st one im fairly sure the answer is 2 weeks tops. The second one Ive no idea if its going to be a casual -20% or bloodshed.
/rgt/
i just ordered a new lambo
lol. dude I day trade. guess what? Stocks aren't anything more than human emotion and what "we" think they are worth. I have traded companies that are worth a fuck ton and their stock drops on earnings. Because people were waiting for them to fail and cut their loses. stocks are bullshit. At least Crypto currencies have some sort of purchase power and fungability.
Also its kinda worth noting that we were here before kikes and big companies got in. Do u really think (((they))) will let goyim take bigger profits? (((They))) got to wreck weak hands to accumulate even more. Assuming big boys are really into it.
>Stocks aren't anything more than human emotion and what "we" think they are worth
No. You have misunderstanding of stock prices. Stocks have real base values independent of what we think along with its speculative value. A non dividend paying stock like Google would never have a market cap of say $1 because that would be retarded as it would allow some NEET to take over Google and raid their millions of cash reserve.
>At least Crypto currencies have some sort of purchase power and fungability.
>purchasing power
>Implying the vast majority is using it for anything but speculation
>Implying stocks are not fungible
Uh what? The fact that the value of crypto is now ENTIRE INDEPENDENT from their purported use makes it a bubble/ponzi scheme. You should be extremely worry that nobody using these "currencies".
>Forex is the largest and most liquid market in the world. In 2010, it accounted for more than $3 trillion of daily trading. Yet, oddly enough, this market didn't exist a century ago. Unlike stock markets, which can trace their roots back centuries, the forex market as we understand it today is a truly new market. We'll take a brief look at the origins of forex and its function today.
>You should be extremely worry that nobody using these "currencies".
Your instincts aren't totally wrong, but take a good hard look at that "nobody".
What are the daily transaction volumes for BTC? For XRP?
How many ICOs and dApps are happening via ETH?
Each new person adds hype, investment, AND value (as a potential user) to these networks. So there's bubble behavior, but also intrinsic value being added.
>The most liquid and widely traded currency in the largest market in the world is the U.S. Dollar. This currency has held that position for quite some time, probably largely due to it being the currency most popularly held in reserve by central banks around the world.
Chinese use BTC to secret money out of the country, forex shops are using XRP to reduce cost and improve service
?
Imagine the carnage when an exploit is produced that allows bitcoin to be fraudulently created/traded.
>my thinking is that it's safer than fiat at this point
this is the mindset that shows you how out of touch most crypto investors are. This bubble is going to pop so hard.