Quick and dirt BTC/USD analysis (data from BFX)

TurtleCat
TurtleCat

Quick and dirt BTC/USD analysis (data from BFX).

You can see we broke out of major channel in the last few hours. This channel kept going since the latest dip @ ~1970 some day ago. The trendline on the bottom is the major uptrend trendline and has been going on for almost two weeks, since ~1700. If that trendline gets fucked, sell everything. If the trendline holds, there might be a recover.

Meanwhile check out the mid-term fib retracements between the 1970 dip and todays high. Those are valid levels to scalp right now and watch out for (see how the big dip exactly ended at the 2250 retracement).

My personal opinion is that BTC is fucked and has no future. We'll wait and let the market decide. Good luck everyone!

Crazy_Nice
Crazy_Nice

interesting

rate my analysis, I think their might even be a double dip once GDAX and Coinbase are back up

Sharpcharm
Sharpcharm

15min chart for analysis

30min chart for analysis

Garbage Can Lid
Garbage Can Lid

I used a wider chart for fib/major trendline. Snapshot was taken in shorter chart range.

Crazy_Nice
Crazy_Nice

30min chart for analysis
growth was steady before that its only recently it shot up at an insane speed because of normies buying in
and now they are cashing out

TechHater
TechHater

Yes, that level is very important (~2200). Fibonacci and major trendline are quite close to there, if that gets broken it will be a huge downfall.

iluvmen
iluvmen

Fibonacci
what do you mean?

I only drew that shit cos it looked cool to me desu
I have no knowledge of trading patterns or anything in this realm.

likme
likme

Coinbase is down. When the users log in the downfall is going to be brutal.

I dont think 2200 will hold. This really seems to be the big impending correction.

Im guessing we're gonna see the floor at 900 or maybe even lower.

Emberfire
Emberfire

drew a bunch of lines on a graph
BTC is fucked and has no future

Seems legit.

LuckyDusty
LuckyDusty

Im guessing we're gonna see the floor at 900 or maybe even lower.
woah thats way too low?
even at the 1k ATH it corrected to like ~800 and grew back steadily if I remember correctly

PackManBrainlure
PackManBrainlure

The $1200 peak of 2013 saw a floor of $196. It took years for it to climb back to $600.

The rally from $600 to $1100, started earlier this year and was stablizing around 900. Which is why I assume it will atleast see 900 or lower before climbing back up to 1200-1500 stable.

Sharpcharm
Sharpcharm

Those "lines" are actually technical analysis. And it is what drives and allows you to predict basically every tradeable asset. Especially cryptocurrencies, where fundamental analysis is not that important.

Firespawn
Firespawn

2013 was because of mt gox lmao wtf are you smoking

GoogleCat
GoogleCat

Lots of overreaction ITT. Bitcoin will stay around ~2200 and be back up to 2500 by the weekend.

Raving_Cute
Raving_Cute

where fundamental analysis is not that important.
Opinion discarded. You are the idiot that didn't buy LTC when it was $4 because you didn't pay attention at the fundamentals (segwit being activated).

When segwit gets activated in BTC and we get lightning network with trillions of transactions per second, you'll kill yourself over your failed TA.

happy_sad
happy_sad

I mean Fibonacci retracements, those are a technical indicator, working with the Fibonacci sequence. You input a price range (high/low) and it will draw those lines in between (see my pic). Those are basically support/resistance levels, usually more valid when trendlines overlap with them.

As you can see in the pic, the big drop stopped exactly where the program drew the line, and the major trendline is close to that level. What you drew is a past resistance becoming support now. The level is the same. All those indicators suggest that the 2200 level is a pretty strong and important one, so should prices break that, it will be a long fall before they settle down again on another strong level.

Inmate
Inmate

30 min chart
applying linear chart in bitcoin for long term predictions
KEK. See you at $8000.

Lord_Tryzalot
Lord_Tryzalot

I didn't say BTC is gonna crash for sure based on my current TA. The price is holding fine for now. The ending line was just my personal opinion in the long run. And if the price breaks ~2200 we'll see how it will go :)

Please do also remember that LTC (as many other CCs) just follows BTC average trend. Shit was stuck for years until whales started throwing money in BTC recently, so LTC also increased. And if you seriously think FA is more important than TA in cryptocurrencies (literally, bytes given value solely by people's will) you should reconsider.

Spamalot
Spamalot

In all seriousness, what do you guys think of the speed at which this correction occurred?

Gigastrength
Gigastrength

What's your next prediction sensei?

PackManBrainlure
PackManBrainlure

OP here, updating the analysis. Prices are going back up for now, testing the channel again. Huge bid wall at ~2500, generally if the price manages to reinsert into the channel and over the channel fib retracement, uptrend should continue, at least for now. Testing could also fail and bring the price down to 2200 critical level

Boy_vs_Girl
Boy_vs_Girl

the sell wall of 4mill has been reduced to 3mill today, downfall inminent

Spamalot
Spamalot

thank mr chart

idontknow
idontknow

I will beat you to death

Sir_Gallonhead
Sir_Gallonhead

thank mr chart

Evilember
Evilember

Thank you Mr. Chart!

Techpill
Techpill

OP again, lat update for now, since price movement seem to be slowing down. Keep this chart close and watch it for the next days, should be fairly accurate.

CouchChiller
CouchChiller

Thank you OP. How long will it take for us to know?

SomethingNew
SomethingNew

My personal opinion is that BTC is fucked and has no future
Elaborate, senpai.

likme
likme

The chart is set with 15 mins candles, but the price ranges marked there (visible on the right) are intended to be mid-term, so next days I would say. Possibly even hours. Always watch the volume (this more than anything else!) and technical indicators, since those really determine price direction. A movement without volume won't hold for long

Burnblaze
Burnblaze

i'd cash out in bullion the moment that bad boy hit 2:1 ratio.

BlogWobbles
BlogWobbles

You think markets trade based on facts?
all pure psychology..... people see the price go down and they jump ship

New_Cliche
New_Cliche

Many Autistic people are used to living in a world where "more features/better tech = better", this is why they can't understand why the iPhone is so popular. It's also why they erroneously think that Bitcoin being old, slow and expensive means it will be replaced by something more advanced.

Ignoramus
Ignoramus

10/10 OP would subscribe.

What program do you use for your chart?

SomethingNew
SomethingNew

this is why they can't understand why the iPhone is so popular
But the iPhone is objectively superior in many ways
typical "lol it's overpriced garbage for normies" memer
I can tell you don't own one and have never developed software

cum2soon
cum2soon

W-will it recover? I kinda bought too early and now I'm hodling that shit.

Methnerd
Methnerd

lack of a circuit breaker is clearly an issue

truly disastrous crashes are always a possibility. If/when it actually goes it will be too quick for anyone on this board, insitutionals will have already liquidated thier positions

TreeEater
TreeEater

I can tell you don't own one and have never developed software

I have nothing against the iPhone and I completely understand why people own them.

Flameblow
Flameblow

How can you be so awesome. You should come by more often.

CodeBuns
CodeBuns

In the long run, that is my opinion. BTC was dead until sometime ago, when whales started throwing in big money and brought the price to the stars (not a single retracement in weeks!).

Another theory of mine is that since whales have joined, they also brought trading bot with them (cucks have literally so much money that let a shitty bot written by someone else perform all their operations, kek). These bots have no fundamental analysis principles whatsoever, and work only by technical analysis principles. They identify a trend, and operate.

This is my guess about why BTC has been surging nonstop lately. Humans have psychological limits. They will eventually stop buying/selling since they believe other humans are doing the same. Algorithms have no such opinions, they keep buying/selling as long as their inputs tell them to do so.
Since bots have been buying like crazy here's what happened: BTC to the moon! But what if they start selling? The algorithm works also for downtrends, remember :)

But leaving this theory aside, I really think it's crazy that people will assign a value on thousands of dollars to bytes. Non material numbers. Commodities like gold make sense, since they are physical, they have intrinsic value. Bytes have not. An HDD with some BTCs on it dies and they are just lost forever, gone. You don't make gold disappear like that :) What will happen when people fully realize this?

Maybe I am completely wrong, who knows? Time will tell, But something so volatile and intangible is not something I want to seriously invest into.

StrangeWizard
StrangeWizard

I have nothing against the iPhone and I completely understand why people own them.
I wasn't suggesting that, I'm just calling your analogy into question because of your apparently flawed logic. The iPhone hasn't been replaced because it's objectively superior by a lot of metrics. The alternatives aren't technologically superior or practically superior, therefore the analogy falls apart.

Crazy_Nice
Crazy_Nice

How about you stop being a pussy and just fucking hold you faggot. These big dips are a routine part of crypto. Just shut the fuck up and weather the storm.

Lord_Tryzalot
Lord_Tryzalot

Indeed. Not looking forward to the day I wake up and find that bitcoin rose $2000 and then dropped $8000 while I was asleep.

Right? I'm tired of all the altcoin shilling. Need some real discussion.

5mileys
5mileys

People assign value to fiat

Methnerd
Methnerd

What program do you use for your chart?
I use bitcoinwisdom and TradingView for online charts. MetaTrader for desktop.

You should come by more often.
Thanks, I appreciate it! I am still a newfag here, will definitely start lurking/posting more, chill place.

AwesomeTucker
AwesomeTucker

Holding for now, if only you'd read my updated analysis

StrangeWizard
StrangeWizard

since they are physical

Tulips >>>> BTC confirmed.

Supergrass
Supergrass

Trips of truth. OP is the chosen one who will deliver us from shills and PND schemes into the land of steady long-term gains.

Booteefool
Booteefool

Fiat is backed up by people with nuclear weapons.

Sir_Gallonhead
Sir_Gallonhead

this is all so wrong. Are you retarded or just pretending. Are ethcucks really stooping this low with their blatant shilling?

MPmaster
MPmaster

FIATs are a different story. They're backed by governments and banks.

idontknow
idontknow

I really think it's crazy that people will assign a value on thousands of dollars to bytes. Non material numbers
Good job, you don't understand what bitcoin is and why it has value. I suggest selling instead of subjecting us to your ignorant opinions

Poker_Star
Poker_Star

But something so volatile and intangible is not something I want to seriously invest into.

This is completely true. But crypto does have inherent value directly propositional to capital controls imposed by government. There are markets, and occasions, that would rather operate with less regulation and more privacy. That being said, the current price is a result of speculation/bots/name it.

Firespawn
Firespawn

An HDD with some BTCs on it dies and they are just lost forever, gone
wrong
You don't make gold disappear like that
wrong again
What will happen when people fully realize this?
you mean when people are as ignorant as you? That's why we have the internet, so you can google stuff and learn why you are wrong.

GoogleCat
GoogleCat

Everyone is a genius at the middle of the chart

Ignoramus
Ignoramus

I am not implying BTC is worthless. I am saying it is way too overpriced right now, due to whales and trading bots. Initial BTC pump back in 2013 was due to euphoria since CCs were relatively new and became popular, so that was just people buying them. Once it hit $1k, people (humans) realized what the fuck they were doing and sold everything. BTC settled down to a more reasonable (maybe?) price. Now, FFWD to 2017, shit I told you happened.

Who knows, whales and bots may inflate this thing forever, but believing in the self-regulated market, I think one day (very soon possibly) BTCs will settle back to what they actually are worth.

Lord_Tryzalot
Lord_Tryzalot

I told you dumb faggots that BTC was a scam but no no no, you fuckers wanted to believe in your "turn 5$ into a bajillion" scam. Fuck. God damnit kids you fell for the jewish banker tricks. You were so caught up in thinking about how cool you were with your supposed "anti-establishment" libertarian utopia currency, you couldn't see that the banks own Polonix and Kraken. The banks don't need to own the currency just manipulate the exchanges for you retards to get BTFOd

kizzmybutt
kizzmybutt

You might be a newfag, and a namefag at that, but you've provided this board with a lot of good info. Hope you stick around despite all the shitcoin shilling. There's some top autists on this board it's all about finding them.

TreeEater
TreeEater

I am saying it is way too overpriced right now,
that's where you are wrong user, you are incredibly wrong.
Initial BTC pump back in 2013 was due to euphoria since CCs were relatively new and became popular, so that was just people buying them. Once it hit $1k, people (humans) realized what the fuck they were doing and sold everything. BTC settled down to a more reasonable (maybe?) price. Now, FFWD to 2017, shit I told you happened.
Holy shit why do ignorant people like you feel the need to come on Veeky Forums and spout their ignorant opinions? Before going to 1k btc had already spiked and corrected, but everytime it spikes again, it always creates a new floor. Bitcoin is not "overpriced", it is simply growing in price at the right pace. You'll see btc getting an almost decent price for its worth at least (this is a very very conservative estimate) when its marketcap is 2 trillion usd.

Who knows, whales and bots may inflate this thing forever, but believing in the self-regulated market, I think one day (very soon possibly) BTCs will settle back to what they actually are worth.
And what do you think that is? Let's hear it. You clearly don't understand what bitcoin is, if you think it's overrated right now

Carnalpleasure
Carnalpleasure

BTC will drop to support at $1900 and bounce, if it cant hold there it will go to $1300.

This particular bull run inst the one we've been waiting for. It will continue to rise once its sorted itself out. $10k by the end of the year doesn't seem too crazy to me.

Raving_Cute
Raving_Cute

You do understand what creates volatility right? It is the fact that people are unsure of the true "fair value" of a commodity. This is why oil goes from 2.50 to 1.50 in the states, why diamonds lost 250% in value, why the housing market in the US lost 5% this month, and why BTC can lose more than 20% of its value in a matter of a half hour. You are the retard on this board sir because your hubris is unchecked and unbounded by reality.

King_Martha
King_Martha

Where do I go if I want to learn more about chart analysis?

farquit
farquit

Fuck I hope so. More cheap coins

TalkBomber
TalkBomber

I just posted pure technical analysis here, then added that my personal opinion is that BTCs are overpriced right now.
I also said I might be completely wrong, I study and practice tech analysis as an hobby lmao those are simply my views regarding BTCs.

So I am happy to argue with people with different ideas, that's how you learn stuff in the end. But please, don't tell me that BTC is growing at the right pace. It has been stuck for a long time, and now suddenly flying to the moon, without a single retracement! Go and check any chart you want, even the most bullish ones. There are always retracements, and price never skyrockets this much and for this long. The problem here is that BTC is getting inflated too much, IMO. And this is why I think it will crash.

CouchChiller
CouchChiller

You do understand what creates volatility right?
so what? There's volatility in fiat too.
It is the fact that people are unsure of the true "fair value" of a commodity.
Wrong. That's just because there is no central bank controlling the flow of money to stabilize demand and supply. It's just free market, but as you can see because of the features and usefulness of bitcoin, that volatility always tends to a higher price, rendering pointless every retarded argument you had in your head as to why volatility for bitcoin is bad.
Uncertain assets don't go from 0 to 2500 in 7 years you fucking idiot.
. This is why oil goes from 2.50 to 1.50 in the states, why diamonds lost 250% in value, why the housing market in the US lost 5% this month, and why BTC can lose more than 20% of its value in a matter of a half hour.
way to gather together things that have nothing to do with each other just except the fact they have a priced value and that value goes up and down all the time lmao
You are the retard on this board sir because your hubris is unchecked and unbounded by reality.
open some books ignorant nigger, read instead of fapping on Veeky Forums ffs

Spamalot
Spamalot

This guy deserves a medal.

Methshot
Methshot

Trolling admitted newfags isn't exactly hard.

TreeEater
TreeEater

I just posted pure technical analysis here, then added that my personal opinion is that BTCs are overpriced right now.
TA by itself is fucking useless, all traders know that. Especially when enforced by your ignorant retarded opinions
I also said I might be completely wrong, I study and practice tech analysis as an hobby lmao those are simply my views regarding BTCs.
Retarded opinions
But please, don't tell me that BTC is growing at the right pace.
It is, and I have already told you why
It has been stuck for a long time, and now suddenly flying to the moon, without a single retracement!
Have you started following bitcoin since yesterday? How fucking ignorant can you be? Bitcoin has been slowly going up for 2 years, and it has had lots of corrections and dips, you just don't know about them because you fucking weren't there. A lot of retracements in the last year have been due to Bitfinex getting hacked, the PBOC blocking withdrawals, hard-fork scare etc.etc. we've had literally dozens of events trying to stop btc but nothing was able to. In 2013 the lack of confidence was due to the fact that a lot of people lost their BTC, but that faith was restored by people learning about the technology (which you aren't doing).
There are always retracements, and price never skyrockets this much and for this long.
yes, I am sure Google and Apple stocks are worth nothing right now compared to a decade ago. Will you wake the fuck up? Also I have already told you bitcoin has had plenty of retracements. One of them LITERALLY TODAY.
The problem here is that BTC is getting inflated too much, IMO. And this is why I think it will crash.
And you're wrong again, like you were when you said that it was inflated at 400 dollars per btc. Keep coping nocoiner

CouchChiller
CouchChiller

hahah this guy cracks me up, where do you get the ether to fuel your patience to actually respond to idiots?

give me your crypto opinions/facts I am intrigued

King_Martha
King_Martha

nocoiners literally cannot recover from this

massdebater
massdebater

TA is not useless. In fact, especially on something only regulated by buyers/sellers like a cryptocurrency, it is the thing that matters most.
And if you want to seriously tell me price movement in the last months was a completely normal uptrend compared to the movement before then I really don't know what to tell you.Yes, BTC was rising at a normal pace, like 2013, after being pretty much dead. But then, close to 1k, this skyrocket happened. That's where I think the price got seriously inflated. It can't keep up like this.

Fried_Sushi
Fried_Sushi

Currently @ $2350 on Poloniex. Are we out of the woods yet?

farquit
farquit

hahah this guy cracks me up, where do you get the ether to fuel your patience to actually respond to idiots?
I get it from kind donations from fellow coiners
BTC : 18frPWxEWZgNnU7mWCZ8n9kL42577JQCii
ETH : 0xe4d0b23caf05f205c1239d46fd361f978bc43abc

give me your crypto opinions/facts I am intrigued
What do you want to know?

TA is not useless
It is when you don't see the bigger picture and you don't understand the psychological cycles of the particular market you're analysing. Heck, you don't even understand what the fuck bitcoin is, how are you going to understand the future wealth movements of the people involved with it? Just give up man
especially on something only regulated by buyers/sellers like a cryptocurrency, it is the thing that matters most.
Actually it's the opposite. Because it is unregulated and almost always has low liquidity, it is much easier for a single actor to manipulate prices regardless of what your meme TA says. Just stop user, have sense of shame.
And if you want to seriously tell me price movement in the last months was a completely normal uptrend compared to the movement before then I really don't know what to tell you
It's been a breakout following a period of accumulation.
Yes, BTC was rising at a normal pace, like 2013, after being pretty much dead
Can't you hear yourself? Your idea of bitcoin is completely flawed but you still think its price has to follow your ignorance and wishful thinking rather than its actual value.
But then, close to 1k, this skyrocket happened. That's where I think the price got seriously inflated. It can't keep up like this.
Then fucking sell please, so we can see your next suicide post 3 months from now asking why you are so retarded.

Btw your TA is absolute shit. You'll learn soon enough.

massdebater
massdebater

Don't listen to trolls mr chart. Plenty of people here appreciate your input.

Please tell us what what you think about the current uptick. Will it crash again at 2500?

Techpill
Techpill

But then, close to 1k, this skyrocket happened.

Yeah because the Japanese started buying.

Illusionz
Illusionz

give me your crypto opinions/facts I am intrigued

What do you think will be moon bitcoin? $50k? $100k?

Need_TLC
Need_TLC

I'm thinking $120 for eth early June

kizzmybutt
kizzmybutt

ETH has too much buzz and too much of a future to go down below anything but 150. Too much potential.

kizzmybutt
kizzmybutt

Nonsensical arguments. And you didn't even read my TA, since I am still holding, not selling until ~2200 is broken.

It keeps trying to test 2500. As I said, if that is broken w/ enough volume, uptrend will most likely continue. On 15 min I see it was trying to follow a double-bottom pattern, but not relevant enough and not enough volume.
Still hard to say, most likely price will settle between the previous level (the channel) and the support for now. In the next days we'll see which way it will go.

Poker_Star
Poker_Star

BTC was dead until sometime ago
Into the trash it goes

Emberfire
Emberfire

hard to say, but as I mentioned earlier, until we reach 2 trillion usd marketcap I am definitely not going to sell. The dotcom bubble was 3 trillion dollars before it popped, and crypto is going to be much bigger than that. The ease of access to investment and global decentralized nature of it attest to that.

Nonsensical arguments. And you didn't even read my TA, since I am still holding, not selling until ~2200 is broken.
sell as fast as you can. You'll buy in again at a higher price anyway, like all the nocoiner cucks

BinaryMan
BinaryMan

With "dead" I meant its volatility was basically dead. It also had settled for a more reasonable price, and was actually following a normal uptrend.

BunnyJinx
BunnyJinx

C O P I N G

O

P

I

N

G

Boy_vs_Girl
Boy_vs_Girl

bump

i said this same thing about LTC my first week in crypto kek

Stupidasole
Stupidasole

yo dumbass, bitcoin pop does not mean crypto pop.

bitcoin has popped twice in the past and it will continue bubbling and popping after every halvening.

crypto is here to stay.

Dreamworx
Dreamworx

crypto is here to stay.
not the one we currently have

Need_TLC
Need_TLC

Mr. Chart. What is going on?

CouchChiller
CouchChiller

OP here (probably going to have a different ID since am AFK from mobile).

Same shit as before. Price keeps testing 2500, not enough volume though. Still out of the channel and below 2500.

Harmless_Venom
Harmless_Venom

This, OP is a faggot.

TA is basically reading tea leafs/horoscopes.

I still use it though

Snarelure
Snarelure

thank mr chart

Stark_Naked
Stark_Naked

An HDD with some BTCs on it dies and they are just lost forever, gone.
Maybe I am completely wrong, who knows?
who knows?

I do, you are completely wrong.

Boy_vs_Girl
Boy_vs_Girl

I need to sleep mr. chart. Should I sleep in fiat or btc?

TalkBomber
TalkBomber

I am not. If you lose your wallet, your bitcoins are gone. Sure you can use an online wallet/backup shit, but they will be gone if the HDD the wallet is on dies and you have no backup or a way to recover data from the drive.

DeathDog
DeathDog

Hold. Price will probably remain between that safe zone, at least for now.

Supergrass
Supergrass

thank mr. chart

5mileys
5mileys

This is getting sad, user. You need to research the available methods of backing up your wallets before you actually lose a bunch of money.

Burnblaze
Burnblaze

You are missing my point. Of course anyone dumping cryptocurrencies into an HDD without care is a retard. My point is that it is quite a gamble to seriously invest in cryptocurrencies, since being intangible and with no intrinsic value could potentially mean waking up with basically zero liquidity, because price has gone to shit. This can happen. If people get nervous and decide to sell, value could as well drop like crazy and suddenly.

TL;DR: CCs aren't shit or worthless, just extremely risky and IMO not worth *seriously* investing into it, when you have safer options.

RavySnake
RavySnake

what is risk/reward

Every BTC enthusiast out there will tell you shit could hit the fan and the value could drop off the face of the earth. You're not telling us anything we haven't known for years. As such with each passing day the blockchain gets stronger and stronger and the likelihood of that happening grows smaller and smaller.

It sounds to me that you lack a fundamental understanding of how this shit actually works.

whereismyname
whereismyname

Well, I was specifically saying in this thread why I believe bitcoin price will drop in the near future. What I meant by "it has no future" was that at this rate of price increase it has no chance to keep going.

Evilember
Evilember

Im guessing we're gonna see the floor at 900 or maybe even lower
Dear god that would be amazing.

Boy_vs_Girl
Boy_vs_Girl

That's the spirit.
btc goes up "yay money"
btc goes way down "time to buy!"
Good attitude user.

hairygrape
hairygrape

Exactly, it really is a win-win.

idontknow
idontknow

Blockchain is not the same thing as bitcoin.

Supergrass
Supergrass

Bitcoin @ $2100 on Polo

is it happening?

Raving_Cute
Raving_Cute

Oh my, i had an orgasm looking at the charts

Boy_vs_Girl
Boy_vs_Girl

anothing crashtrain happening

Techpill
Techpill

where will it end senpai

Emberfire
Emberfire

1k or so
fuck i hope lower
for dem cheap btc

LuckyDusty
LuckyDusty

just buy now they said this afternoon
Glad i didn't listen

Carnalpleasure
Carnalpleasure

I started reading this thread and it convinced me to sell about 10 mins ago.

Just checked bittrex and btc is down 100 usd from where I bailed

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