WW1 alternate universe

Let's say Gavrilo was stopped. The Duke lives. WW1 as we know it is avoided. What would happen to the world? Would there be an even more devestating conflict later?

no

They would have found another excuse to go to war. Same shit with Lusitania or pearl harbor.

If you think that the Death of ff was the cause of WWI, you're probably in the wrong place.

Maybe Austria would find another excuse to stir shit up in the Balkans.
Maybe Russia would.
In this case WW1 would still happen and barely anything would change.

But failing that, things would be so different no one has any clue what would have happened.

It was though.
Even the most powerful bomb needs a fuse.

and there is a very good chance something else might have sparked it as well

true

There were multiple international incidents that almost sparked the war, but in the end, it was averted each time. Until this one.

The eternal a*glo will find a way to start conflict

they always do

LOL since this is just uninformed speculative Bullshit let me add on to it.

Considering Franz Joseph (Austro-Hungarian king) was about to die arch-duke Franz Ferdinand would've been the next crowned. There is actually a lot of evidence he was very progressive. A lot of the territories in the empire were in a state of horrible unrest. which is why the Serbian terrorist gavrillo princip assassinated in the first place. Even Hungarian politicians and royalty held little power in the split empire. Ferdinand knew this and before he died even had a map drafted to create sovereign independent minor powers, these powers would than create a larger eastern alliance and probably make a super economy. This would most likely threaten western European dominance, and would've probably declared war on Austria and their allies. Also if Austria made this super alliance a lot of other minor powers that weren't originally part of Austro-Hungary would join this alliance, especially since they would've been able to keep their national, and ethnic cultures. This would've threatened Russia and the ottomans because of all of the Islamic and Slavic nations in the regions which means they would've probably declared at least minor border wars with the minor powers, that would eventually lead to Austria and Hungary and the other countries in the alliance coming to Thierry aid.

All of this means is all the same countries are on the same side going to war with the same people minus the ottomans. If anything the only difference is this might have been enough to stop the turk revolution in the Ottoman Empire and, the war spoils would leap the ottomans in to their own industrial Era and have a new surge of nationalism. Possibly we would have an Islamic super power in the 21 century in the ottomans turks

Sorry for lack of punctuation and spelling errors... didn't feel like typing really am on my phone

Forgot to add a pic so people might actually read my shit.

Also I wanted to add the turks changing sides and being more involved early in the war might very made it not last as long and maybe the Germans wouldn't have fucked up and tried to get Mexico to attack America. So America might not have joined this supposed war.

Okay Austria didn't stir shit up first of all a terrorist killed a royal family member the terrorist was working for a cell ran by a state official in Serbia ( a general I believe) and Austria declared war on them if Russia declared war on Austria bc they are idiots and wanted to control Serbia bc they are slavs (aka wanted more buffer states) bc that's how stupid Russia defends itself that's how ww1 started Austria isn't the bad guy here.

This board is like 80% speculation and uninformed

Ferdinand was naive and the Hungarians and Austrians all knew they needed to be united to maintain great power status.

Franz Ferdinand's plan would have made the yugoslavs happy but as the expense of Austria and Hungary who would never have allowed it to happen anyway.

If Franz didn't die the yugoslavs would have blown up a building or shot someone else and triggered Austria-Hungary to attack Serbia.

Austria-Hungary's government officials all belived deeply that the empire was threatened by Serbian nationalism and Serbian Nationalism was totally out of control.

The empire was threatened by nationalism of all of their different ethnic citizens living in their empire idk I mean the most viable option to keep security would've been to give a false sense of freedom and identity I agree that it would be improbable bc if the other politicians and monarchs and what have you but the man did make a map so he was considering that as a possibility I wouldn't call him naive considering that's how America handles it's "empire" installing puppet governments that is

>What would happen to the world?
The immediate trigger is removed for WW1, but not the underlying causes. The nationalistic pride, alliance systems, paranoia of other countries, and imperial ambitions would not change.
>Would there be an even more devestating conflict later?
Probably.

THE TURKROACHES WOULD HAVE GOTTEN THEIR FUCKIG DREADNOUGHTS FROM THE ETERNAL ANGLO.

NO REASON TO ALLY WITH AUTISTIC GERMANS.

GLORIOUS ABDULHAMID II UNFIES ARAB AND TURKISH REGIONS OF THE SUBLIME OTTOMAN STATE.

NO ARMENIAN GENOCIDE.

GLORIOUS OTTOMAN TURKROACH EMPIRE FOREVER.

>NO REASON TO ALLY WITH AUTISTIC GERMANS.
Except for the Berlin-Baghdad railway, a common enemy in Russia, German oil interests, and close military relationships?

How many clauses does that sentence have

I believe he means if the obvious reasoning for ww1 the assassinations the secret treaties and whatnot and there was peace in Europe.. at least that's what I assumed

But letting the archduke live wouldn't have changed any of those causes. It would have just delayed the inevitable.

Ottomans don't attack Russia with German battleships if they don't need the battleships because their friendos in London delivered them already.

Black Sea Raids don't happen behind the Sultan's back.

Abdulhamid doesn't want to fight the eternal anglo and has no obligation to.

The Black Sea Raid happened because those German-delivered "Ottoman" warships were still under German control. Make no mistake though, Enver Pasha wanted a war with Russia.

But if the Ottomans get Resadiye and whatever the other one is Enver's retard autist plan goes bad and he has t plot a new one, perhaps to join a losing war at that point. That's a much harder sell.

Abdulhamid didn't want a war and without Enver's wild ride into Sevastopol he doesn't have to.

Eh, I think you underestimate Enver's influence. Him and his buddies more or less usurped the Sultan in order to get the Ottoman declaration of war set up

assuming something else doesn't happen in that time frame but everything else plays out normally, people get distracted by the revolution in Russia (although you could argue it wouldn't have happened without WWI), or maybe it goes differently or it sparks the war
assuming the revolution goes the same, eastern Europe still gets shaken up but likely not by external wars, Austria-Hungary maintains its power but becomes a democracy, Germany probably doesn't break up, Austria-Hungary maybe breaks up eventually (some Balkan states definitely break away)
also what this guy said which has some interesting implications
please note though, OP, people on here have a dim view of alternate history questions, so I'd advise you not to ask them here

Gavrilo was an Austrian plant.

The assassination of Ferdinand was an inside job meant to justify a way with Serbia.