Custom quick rundown - chinks and china

OK so an user asked me for a quick rundown in the other chink thread, that one has mostly bad information so I will start a new one and hope it 404s and saves a few souls.

Overview of the situation

Chinas in bad shape, but it's really difficult for a chinese person to admit when they've fucked up, they lose face, this is the worst thing that can possibly happen to them, result is mental shock and instadenial. They could fuck up right in front of you and still look you dead in the eyes and tell you they have not fucked up, that they were merely pretending, that you fucked up, that someone else fucked up, whatever, they believe it, they do not have a facility for processing fuckups. Do not expect their government to ever discuss anywhere near how fucked they are, if they say they're a little bit fucked, you know they're a lot fucked.

>They have admitted their economy is a bit fucked.

Chinks on the ground are in fear of their own country, they know as well as we do they're fucked. This has resulted in many chinese scrambling to bail their wealth the fuck out of the country. They do not want to hold the piece of shit RMB, they do not want to buy property on the governments fucked up terms, they do not want chinks stocks, they're pretty sure all this kind of shit is doomed.

>Not that fucking easy

You've seen a shitcoin exodus, that's what happens to their currency if they all try to sell, the government obviously does not want this, it cannot afford to keep the price propped up forever, when they can't do it anymore, they're in serious fucking trouble. They are desperately trying to force chinks to keep their money in china to give the mugonomy chance of being manageable. The rules are fucking strict, and the penalties max out at death within a matter of weeks.

>Take your pick google.com/search?q=china capital flight

This concludes part one of this quick rundown.

Chinks with their wealth stored in the BTC, any other fucking currency, or any other store of value outside of china are some lucky bastards. They made it out before shit got really fucking hard, this is value they can freely use to do shit like pump the property prices in your city so high that you will never be able to afford one.

>Why the fuck would they bring it back?

Not only was much of this shit secreted out illegally, meaning that bringing it back could cost their family some lead, but they know full fucking well if they do bring it back in, it's not getting back out. They would literally be gambling on a shitcoin and waving their right to sell those bags if shit went any direction but to the moon. Nobody thinks CNY is going to moon, retards that do still think this are parroting the bullshit they heard from somebody who has always had it wrong.

>So why an increase in value if withdrawals are unfrozen?

Believe it or not chinese are just people, there are regular ass wagecucks who just want to collect their check, watch shitty reality TV and fuck their ugly wife on weekends. They don't want to think about what's going on, they don't care, they just want to be able to buy the same shit they normally buy. They are scared of giving up their value fiat without knowing if they'll ever be able to turn it back into cigarette money. What the fuck are they going to do with 500 US dollars? Buy some shit online that is made in a sweatshop down the street for 300x the price?

The fear of the governments big ass fucking ban hammer will be around for a long time, I don't really anticipate a mad rush to buy in, because they're going to be thinking the shit could be shut down again the next day. It's going to take some time. What I can't for any fathomable reason see happening is any of these fuckers so much as crawl toward the exit. Fuck that. This concludes the quick rundown.

good analysis. This is why i still come to biz.

Is China's economy anymore fucked than ours is though? It's not like our stock economy isn't a giant bubble waiting to pop either.

This paints a way clearer picture. Thank you for this great summary. (From the user who asked in the other thread.)

china has had, like, 10% growth for years now, at the cost of severely damaging their environment.

They have too many people, and not enough farmable land to sustain everyone (and they know it). War might break out one day over that.

>It has long been suspected but never proven. Now Liaoning Province, in the rust belt of northern China, has admitted to faking its economic growth data. The fabrication occurred between 2011 and 2014, the provincial Governor Chen Qiufa told a meeting of the local legislature.

>But as is often the case in China, the Communist Party did not say by how much the data had been over-stated, although it said fiscal revenue was inflated by as much as 20 per cent in some years.

when the price of underperforming is "bullet to the head", it's not surprising when the numbers get fudged

Not gonna lie, former Bagholder here. This is fucking hilarious watching China crash and burn. But in all seriousness we can't let these Chinks get the good economy.

I honestly just steer clear of everything china. Yes they're heavy in crypto, but it stands to moon harder if they really fall to bits.

I hope they crash, having nothing against the Chinese people, they are enslaved to a dictatorship, but I want to throw up when I see these movies like Independence Day 2, the Martian, Red Dawn etc. with Hollywood kissing up to the Chicoms.

any country failing would probably lead to a rise in BTC/ETH price

so ur saying theyre NOT going to be selling in droves?

Only if they can get it into something not CNY

that would probably be very unlikely

and the more lower class would want to cash out their gains for more cigs, but their initial investment is probably small. i expect it's probably the larger players with the serious cash that want OUT that will hodl

crap. and i was really banking on them to cause a big dip in ETH

Yes and we can see those points looking over historical charts. Thing about china though is there's is still A LOT of money there in the hands of a people who are becoming quite well versed in the bitcoin. They also love a good pump more than most, if they see bitcoin charging upwards they'll be almost guaranteed to jump on it, look at their property buying habits to see this in mainstream action

Yeah that was a meme started by some twitter guy who sold at 1300.

Yeah the BAT and Mysterium ICOs were priced with a dip a few hours earlier in mind. (Source: their respective Slacks. I recommend joining the Slack of anything you're planning to invest in. Also they are searchable so you can fact check me.) Chances are some whale will still dump around that time causing massive FUD.

The BTC on the exchanges in question might already be considered dead - basically I don't think they're going to be able to shift large amounts now out to say USD without breaking the rules and getting caught.

The portion greater than the allowed amount MIGHT come back into CNY if they've decided the game is up, but some amount would surely just be shifted to above ground wallets as a hedge against their troubled economy. I don't know if they're going to be forced into cashing out or anything like that.

What I do not expect to see is the big laundered money coming from 'secret' wallets into the chinese exchanges to be cashed out to CNY, that isn't frozen right now anyway so nothing should really change there.

What's this? They expect ETH to dip and set their ICO price higher?

Not enough food, and other public healh crises all over China.

Good news, user! China's in a massive housing bubble the likes of which has never been seen before due to China's recent industrial revolution and ignorance by the general populace.

Guess what happens when you dull your population for 30 years with a """cultural revolution""" and then they get a taste of wealth? You get a lost generation of retards and everyone goes mad.

That place is a timebomb. So's everywhere else, mind you; 2008 was just a taste of what's to come.

They expect ETH to dip to match the ~$153 price point, ya dingus.

Actually this raises an interesting point. There are obviously a lot of people out there who EXPECT that china will bail back to fiat and cause a dip, if some clever whale dumped it would likely be associated to 'what we thought would happen' all along and see some panic selling from everyone but the chinks. If this happens I will be buying that dip.

Why does ETH dip in the first place? Exodus on BTC, so chinas going to CNY, where does the rest of the world take cover?

If I could tell you that I would be partying with billionaires on a yacht in international waters instead of being on Veeky Forums on a weekday. All I know is there are a few people with deep pockets that will use said pockets as "Fuck You" money to sell and therefore spread FUD about ETH. Expect blood on the 31st.

China is a non-factor in regards to ETH. 90% of ETH trading takes place on Polo(US), Kraken(UK),Bithumb (Korea) and Coinone (Korea)

Korea accounts for nearly half the total ETH volume. So unless the Chinese are somehow posing as Koreans, the Chinese are nothing in the ETH world but no one seems to get that. And Huobi is tiny exchange not even worth mentioning.

There's ETH mania propped up by pure speculation just in time for China, US and UK to come back from Holiday. How do you honestly think this is going to go?

so are you gonna short some eth?

>So unless the Chinese are somehow posing as Koreans
>CNY to KRW to ETH

user, you might have cracked the puzzle.

If it dips I'd be very suspicious it's a trap.

>Short crypto

No, not ever. No matter how bearish it's too manipulated and volatile. I have sold my 300+ ETH which is about as bearish as I could get because I am a longtime holder.
This is the first time in 15 months I've held 0 ETH.
First time in 15months I've held 0 crypto at all. Im all fiat at the moment.

Don't think this is fresh confidence off the recovery? Won't last?

So you switched over to fiat to secure your gains? This is what I am debating doing right now. I think the Chinese will shit on the market. Is pulling out a safe bet rn?

It's too short term, no I don't think it will last. People need to start zooming out a bit instead of looking at 2 day charts.
Right now ETH has a 1.5million buy wall keep it propped up where it is on polo.

Like I said, im out until i see the next couple weeks play out. Every high it touches will exaggerate the correction short-term.

Don't know if you could be blamed for pulling out at ATH

I could have fucked up but i turned 7k into 60k in the past 3 months. It's time to retreat for a bit and take stock instead of obsessing over every movement and uptick.
I think it's going to get crazy these next 2 weeks and I'll be keeping a close eye on whats going on.

I did grossly underestimate how ignorant the market is in regards to ETH and China. I new there would be some stupid hype, but not this much.

Look at the market depth for ETH on polo. That's exactly what it looked like when BTC was pushing 2800. I thought i was wrong just before the Friday crash as it touched new highs. I even messaged my mate and said "Im happy to be wrong"....
Until I was proven right. Just as I was starting to believe it really was going to keep ascending, I woke up to blood lol.

Just on another note. ETH has ALWAYS retraced 30%+ after all time highs.
Doesn't matter when or the price or the reason for the pump. There has never been a time when it hasn't retraced hard. That's fact. You can look at the charts yourself going back as long as it's recorded on polo and look at what happens every time those candles touch a new ATH.

short ETH, gotcha

yeah lots of blind optimism about eth in china. people don't know the volume of huobi is pretty small relatively. i am guess eth prices will continue to rise until about 6pm tomorrow

Im just spooked to lose my noob crypto gains from this Chinese shit. I dipped from 2600 to 1800 from that crash a few days ago. Still recovering but fuck man. I dont want my gains to crash again.

god fucking damn it user you have me looking at the 28th and thinking about swinging for the lambo

I sold because I think I can profit over the next month, not because I think ETH and BTC are done for good. I told my brother and mate just to put it in cold storage and walk away for awhile.
I believe ETH and BTC have a lot more upside to go, but I short-term trade. If I didn't believe a shit-storm was coming, I would be margin trading still.

china and eth is possibly underrated, people still think the pathetic NYC conference was responsible for the early pump, I don't know if they actually watched it or what. That same week there were quiet meetings in shanghai and beijing.

Made me sell out of ETH. Made some nice gains in just a day, can't complain.

well yeah it's the short term that's in question here, 27th 28th it more than halved between the two extremes, if we were to see it bounce off that same low again, well, you'd have your lambo

IT WASN'T A MARKET DRIVEN CRASH REEE

GDAX HAPPENED.

Why do all you retards NOT GET THIS?

bleached buttholes as far as the eye can see.

what the fuck happened to gdax?

what happened you fucking autist

had to fucking use google, looks like it crashed, why does this cook the market? are people concerned about a hack?

interesting. thanks bro