It's me. I've been thinking about the BAT situation. The way I see it, there are two ways this can go. Lets do some simple math...
Half of this now ~180M market cap is owned by 4 guys and they can't dump anywhere - market cap is effectively cut in half to ~80M with ~190 random guys holding it.
effectively each guy on that half we could say is holding about $500,000. This would be incredibly hard to dump anywhere, even for just one of them. That's what, 200 BTC not accounting for the price lowering from dumping, still a huge volume from ONE of these shit heads.
This leads to a scenario where the price right now is the actual price from the whales locking it out and the original ICO prices and market cap calculations and predictions are in effect totally nullified and buying right now would not mean very much. The problem with this is that the market cap would, you could say, be ~160M at ICO, a terrible start, 10x needs a 1.6 BILLION DOLLAR market cap. 100x on 160M in the current crypto market, consider that a pipe dream... so that is a flaw to this possible scenario.
But, this also means that if a single one of these 200 guys decides to cash out, most likely on a popular exchange where it would have the users and volume to be able to dump 200+ BTC, the price is tanking to probably just about ICO, maybe 2x. This is the other scenario.
What do my anons think of this? I've been following BAT and making threads on it for months now and I want opinions on what I'm saying here from other smartanons. This is what I think the landscape is.
no shitposters, retards asking easily googled questions etc etc.. you will be hidden. definitely not here to play daddy and spoonfeed you noobie information.
BAT will make a shit load of money long term. The team is pretty stellar, and they have a ton of backing, including an advisor from Coinbase. You can worry about it dropping when it hits the exchanges etc, but if you buy and hodl long term you will probably see 100x increase easy by EOY
Jackson Wright
God, Op honestly just explained why you are probably not even going to see 10x and you are spouting 100x. Go die pls
Bentley Roberts
tfw expecting neets on biz to not be retarded shills
Aaron Baker
If we said 100x at the real ICO price, then I guess in 1-2 years anything is possible and the crypto market cap could be much higher with loads of coins having multi-billion dollar market caps. If we're talking at this current price going 100x, that's clearly very hard to believe.
To say that, you'd HAVE to assume all of these other constituents:
BTC and/or ETH, assuming their still in their top positions, would more than likely also be in the multi-billions, probably hundreds of billions. Right now, that's totally ridiculous and if you told everyone that the crypto market is going to have a market cap of 1+ TRILLION, people would start going nuts
The US digital ad industry in 2016 was worth about 70B. With what you're saying, the entire digital advertising industry would have to be on board with Basic Attention Token. Of course, this is leaving out things such as the efficiencies of BAT possibly lowering that, and the speculation of the token itself, but it still shows how far BAT would have to go for this 100x scenario to be realized.
Even the smallest whales will be worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and the top whales, billions. Not to say that isn't possible, but we cannot determine whether or not they would dump and crash the entire thing at any point for any period of time.
This is why I think that is not happening anytime soon. I cannot say that I am totally unbiased as I don't think anyone can be, as I obviously didn't get my hands on any BAT at the ICO and unless it's a very small world I doubt any of those 200 guys are in this thread, so we are all the same boat right now.
Christian Scott
If you think the crypto market is based on logic or any sort of actual financial analysis, you're not paying attention. BAT is rare, people want it, and once it hits the exchanges, it will explode. Maybe 100x isn't realistic, but it's trading for about $.16 right now, once it hits a major exchange, it will get up to $1 pretty quickly, and honestly $5 doesn't seem unreasonable
Daniel Cruz
YOU are illogical, Bat is not RARE, People DON'T want it...
Noah Cook
BAT will only become interesting if more people have some. Idiowhales bought up everything and there's now what ... 5 guys owning the whole supply.
Have fun trying to trade that.
Jose Brown
OP makes the mistake of thinking that total marketcap for crypto isn't going to go up by much.
Brayden Torres
>people intelligent enough to use some weird shitcoin-based web browser >people stupid enough to not use an adblocker pick one
Robert Watson
I bought in shortly after the ICO on Liqui. Just hoping to double my money I guess, not really sure.
I'm assuming this will reach plenty of new exchanges though.
Can someone tell me why these coins tend to dump after they hit more popular exchanges?
Tyler Rodriguez
Once they hit bigger exchanges, the people who bought into the ICO can cash out quickly, and make their money back. Short term you may lose, but long term, this coin will be very important
Easton Murphy
Do you think it's a good hold til the end of this year?
Blake Cox
I don't know whether or not I agree with you. I am concerned with what the actual holders are going to do and that is what we should be considering...
If I was a whale with $500,000 in BAT right now, this is probably what I'd be thinking about right now:
"When we are on a big exchange, I could slowly increase the price by releasing small amounts at increased asking prices and make even more money, but if somebody becomes greedy and wants to cash out their 5-10x, I lose it all because I didn't act quickly enough." - what ~190 guys are currently thinking, probably.
This is part of the problem. The entire 1,000,000,000 is in the hands of 200 guys, and 4 of them hold half of it. The chances that someone could get greedy and dump it down are significant. The chances that they all hold it and have some kind of plan to slowly faucet out their BAT to increasing prices for a big pay off, I highly doubt with how much trust that would take. There is no honor among thieves and right now there are 200 of them just waiting for the right volume to dump into.
You're making a mistake by assuming things in a market that is extremely volatile. I don't agree with you but I see where you are coming from.
see the above. that's why, at least I think that's why.
Put yourself in their shoes. It gets really scary when you are holding 6-7 figures in something and just 1 in 200 guys needs to press the button before everyone else to cut your earnings, and all over ~190 guys earnings, in half. I would be worried, for sure. I'm not saying it's definitely going to be a race to who can dump it first, as that'd be the only person to win in this scenario, but it can totally happen once this touches an exchange with significant volumes.
Alexander Jenkins
Brave browser isn't so bad. And if I can get paid to simply have ads in my view while I do something, I don't see why I wouldn't.
The market here is the same kind of poor neets who use Clixsense and Timebucks, doing online surveys, etc., is it not? While at the same time normies who see the benefit of getting a little extra cash will do it too.
If it really is as simple as getting paid to switch browsers there's not really a compelling reason not to. You adapt, and most people know that.
Also Brave is really pretty fast and not bad.
Jack Reyes
This is basically a Prisoner's Dilemma. If they all sell slow, they all get kind of rich. If one of them dumps, he will get really rich.
That said, I think the people who invested in BAT did so because it will be an important coin, and the team behind it is pretty amazing. Brendan Eich is probably one of the most important figures in creating the internet as it is now, and they have advisors from Coinbase, a ton of VC backing, and now a shitload of cash from this ICO. They are going to do great things, and make a boatload of money
Josiah Hall
Brave is decent. I used it briefly, but it was too buggy so I switched back to Chrome.
I think they will eventually have to find markets for it outside of Brave though. If they can improve the online advertising space (which is currently absolutely broken), they will do big numbers
Jaxson Lee
Ive been part of a lot of ICOs mostly have thousands of holders. Even with those, people are actually very stubborn with their stash and move in step. 200 people is fucking insane. First they are already Ethereum rich not random pajeets. I bought at 3x ICO and am holding to $5
Levi Ross
>The entire digital advertising industry...
you're not thinking about it right. you just said yourself they spend 70billion a year (you actually said it's worth 70billion but you meant spend). so If bat had 2.5% of that revenue, that's 17.5 billion a year which is more than 100x current market cap. Market cap would likely be a lot more in this scenario since very few market caps=1 year revenue. tldr with just 2.5% of digital advertisers using bat, we'll see 100x gains minimum.
Angel Sanders
25%***
Blake Nelson
To elaborate I see a Zcash situation where most holders are insiders and holding for 5 yrs. I dont think people realize those 200 people are smart money early ethereum adopters and going to be greedy as fuck.
Noah Thomas
lol i love the fact that this shit and its ico was all it took to make someone rich as fuck.
it's like the late 90s all over when any idea for a website would fetch millions. actually this crypto ico shit is probably far worse
Lucas Richardson
Worldwide ad spend is closer to $200 billion. If Eich can turn BAT into a web standard for online advertising tracking, he could get a large piece of that pie.
Xavier Nelson
If this is the case, then the question is when to buy in. Surely someone will dump, and maybe we can pick up the scraps. I don't feel comfortable buying this at 4-7x the ICO price.
>Brave is decent. I used it briefly, but it was too buggy so I switched back to Chrome.
ditto, back on chrome right now
John Harris
I bought a bit already, but I will wait to see if it gets sold off too quickly and buy some more if so
Oliver Torres
Imagine a future where going to a 9-5 is no longer required. All that is needed is to use the BAT Browser and watch adds and be paid minimum $250 per day. BAT will feed families! BAT will create happiness! BAT BAT BAT
Asher Long
more like 2.5 cents per day
Matthew Sullivan
KEK tell that to the long list of people that didn't get the ico.
>24 sec
Adrian Jenkins
I might buy some now and buy the majority if it dips down.
Evan Myers
>people DON'T want it
lol i'd pay a dollar right now and consider it the deal of a lifetime
Hudson Carter
Many missed it and aren't willing to buy in for much more than the ico price though. One of the whales will dump when it hits the big exchanges, and when that happens all bets are off
Christian James
.t a faggot that got in at ICO price
Brandon Hughes
I don't think I'd consider BAT at $1 to be a deal of a lifetime... that's 43x for the guys that actually got into the ICO.
