What does /biz think of martingale on crypto dice? With my bot I can get better returns than from mining

I use a formula of (collateral)/2^15 as a formula for original bet. So my odds of losing are 0.51*2^15, multiply that by games per day and my total risk is still only .2%

It does if you have infinite money and no betting limit

>he's unironically arguing for a mathematically faulty position

did this once with like 0.05 BTC ended up with 0.8 btc and then lost it within 10sec back to 0 btc

the house wil always win if they got a bigger bank

Yes, Martingale is just shifting many small risks into one huge risk, typically catastrophic loss

i used dogecoin and betted with 0.00000001 with a change of 30/70 so i could lose 40 times in a row almost but in the end you wil always lose if you got less bank then the house

its a fine thing to do if you start with 5$ and stop when you win big once

but you wil defendly lose everything if you keep going

Where was my mathematics faulty? I acknowledged there was a risk I just stated that it was small enough to be a non issue.

I'm aware of the risks I'm mainly using this to gain 50-100% depending on how I feel before I pour it into a shitcoin anyways

Does anyone spot a problem in the statistics here?

small enough to be a non issue until that non issue comes around to fuck you over a few times in a row

So you only go completely broke 4% of the times? What a bargain! And you get to keep all the 1 and 16sat wins

I need to do some modelling on the effects of investing twice as much vs losing initial investment. I am currently logging data on everything and might publish what I find find at some point, is that something anyone is interested in?

Not sure you'll find better odds for a double or nothing anywhere, I still only gamble with recreational budget anyway.

It is very easy to do on Excel.

1/0.51^15=24347. This is the amount of tries for you to bust in every a 15 throw trial. Given you'll need 254016 rolls to reach your target that's about 10.5 isolated throws but the real throws are not isolated which means your change of losing is way more likely. I'm pretty sure a more rigorous analysis would result in the probablility of succeding tending to 49% as your money tends to double. If you want to earn money faster just roll it all right away and you won't waste any time.

A better strategy in a 50% setting IMO would be to just bet always the same amount and take a win when things fall in your favor but I haven't tried it and it's probably not very profitable if you include time given the house edge and the losing streaks you can have

I went from 0.1 btc to 0.7 betting with it went it was around 250 bucks.
Lost it all because I wanted to have a whole Bitcoin.

While it solves one of the problems it has (the house actually letting you do it), you still have de probabilities against you
Would not recommend other than to get a valuable lesson

I have been playing on excel and winning quite a lot. My method has been start with 1BTC and a 1sat bet, then drop out if you get 1.05 (or run out of money which happens rarely), repeat. Might try this some day. Of course

Everyone that gambles gets too greedy when they're up. For example i turned 0.15 btc into 0.5 back in the day but i kept going and lost it all. It's best to leave when you've doubled your money.

If you want it here's the data from my game earlier, I intend to leave it running overnight with a coin I dont care about to gather more data.
Won after:
1 Throw - 204/418
2 - 103/418
3 - 51/418
4 - 26/418
5 - 19/418
6 - 8/418
7 - 3/418
8 - 1/418
9 - 0/418
10 - 2/418
11 - 1/418

I think you should test it on yobit

Instead of Nova?

pretty sure the math that's wrong is where you say you have a 95% chance to double. If your bet size is small enough that you can double it 15 times, you are not going to be doubling your bank roll in an hour. Since you have a 4% chance to lose it all per hour, I would approximate it would say you 26-27 hours to reach doubling since the odds are in house favor.

>go for 5% gain or 100% loss

10/10 business plan, user.

Are you stupid, the expected value of returns for an infinite starting supply of money is 0 dollars

I got banned from nova for automating the bets and leaving it for a while so I wouldn't suggest doing it there

5% or more, or a 1BTC loss, yes. If you do it 100 times (over 2500 bets), you win over 8BTC. And you never take a big loss. I don't see the downside desu. OP was not a faggot for once.

Yeah my gain per hour figure is way off in that model, I got that by leaving having an extra magnitude of 10 on my initial bet, After correcting I get about 47% chance of complete failure while attempting to double the bankroll at as 27 hour time cost.

The point is it's not scalable.
Whatever you think you'll win, you'll end up losing even more. For example you made .02 ltc or $0.85 in 20 minutes which is a rate of $2.55 an hour. Not bad. In a days time you've made about $60 assuming 24 hours of this. Assuming you have a .2% chance of loss in a day you can expect a loss within 346 days. Not bad, you could make $21000. But that's assuming you don't lose sooner. When do you quit? $21000 or bust? A single loss means you lose everything you've profited and more so all of your bot's run time is a waste at that point. And continuing beyond this point is only going to add to the losses. The numbers come out well in your favor for maybe a few months but if you consider it this way, you have a 1/10 chance of losing everything you have and more within 52 days. Not likely but it's a significant concern. And this time period would only net you about $3000 assuming you did succeed. Again not a bad number but the odds of loss in the long run are too great to be worth scaling.

So, any exchanges that do allow you to bet and bot all you want?

Be advised, if you win too much in a row or you're positive for a long time the system artificially starts forcing you losing rolls

What's with the random kek flag

I just tried it 100 times with 4:10 odds of winning and still almost tripled my gains.
Anser pls

>le martingale thread
>in a crypto containment board
Thanks for the double cancer, fag.
Might as well double that cancer again, so there's a non-zero chance to make this thread less gay.

Just tried it with 10btc and 100btc instead of 1. In 30 tries won 24 and 435 imaginary btc. It only increased the amount of bets.

Martingale actually works with infinite supply and infinitely large bets
But why gamble if you have infinite money