HAPPENINGGGGG

marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude oil - electronic

OIL BTFO

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Oh wait biz is a coin board and doesn't care about the actual economy

pls drop to $20 so i can get rich off longing oil futures for the next decade

Fuck Veeky Forums tbqfhwyf

I own a offshore drilling company
Contrarian move but oil is not sustainable at this level. 30% comes from offshore which has a 50+ av. breakeven cost

*own stock

what's your prediction of the oil price in the near and long term? will it be stuck between 40-60 for years?

I could give you a story but truth is that I don't know. At current trends it will take a year to burn through global stockpiles which could mean 80+ prices again. But with the price around 40 again I hope there will be bankruptcies for companies in canada and high cost shale and probably seadrill(largest offshore driller). What I do know is that the price can't remain in the 40-50 range for longer than a year. They will have to return above 60 to sustain unconventional investment (which is at least but after that... who knows?..

All those gay single digit gains are just not interesting when there is a literal monetary revolution at hand that can offer upwards of 1000% gains.
Even just going into bitcoin and holding will outperform all these boring assets. If you think bitcoin wont hit 10000 at some point youre crazy.

Hey grandpa, you should buy more war bonds.

i was so close to buying put options on seadrill like 5-6 months ago but decided not to because of the high spread. fml

yeah but you gotta have shit ready for when or if the shitcoin bubble pops. i have accounts for trading derivatives in case crypto gets rekd. also once you've pulled off massive gains in crypto you might want to reduce the risk a bit

is there any way to get the board back or is it just going to stay as nonstop shitcoin shilling

>(which is at least
I wanted to say unconventional oil production+deepwater is 25% of total global production and has a cost far above $50
We just can't meet demand without that 25% unless solar powered cars take over in the next 2 years.

Also shale has been squeezing suppliers and those might go go bunkrupt soon enough too which would drive cost for shale.

When did it get like this? I am now in finance and haven't been here for a really long time. I returned last month and it is pure coin shilling.

I've been coming here on and off since day one
I think it started in the summer but I'm not sure

Demand is falling and supply is still at all time record highs - we will see oil going back to a $20 handle by late this year or early next year. US economy (and much of the rest of the West) will be in an official recession by the end of 2017 so demand will be even lower. Note that this recession won't be admitted until mid/late next year - all GDP prints from this year will be dramatically revised down next year, same story as 2008.

Thing is, oil will drop pretty hard into the $20 range but it won't stay there for too long. Central banks will go further into full retard mode (especially the Fed) and start creating absolutely mind boggling amounts of currency whilst cutting IRs to negative nominal (they are already negative real but let's not discuss that). This will push oil (and all other commodities) much much higher as fiat currencies worldwide really start to tank.

>summer
2016?
I remember when there were stocks being discussed

>seadrill
It's a highly levered up company. Worst in the sector. so shorting the shit wouldn't have been bad

i don't think the oil demand will drop significantly anytime soon. by far most cars are still petrol and they'll be on the road for a while. also more people, more ship transport, planes and shit

because it's profitable as fuck. pic related is the reason. insane influx of money into crypto and altcoins particularly. a lot of biz became usd millionaires on ethereum, and many have made >$100k on various crypto. i've only made a measly $5k on my inital $5k investment, but then again i only started 5 days ago. shit is nuts actually

i know. what happens when they go bankrupt? fredriksen has a new drilling thing he'll get going?

>Why is Veeky Forums only coin threads?

You have to realize that you're on a Veeky Forums board
There's inherently nothing wrong with either coins or "real" business options, but you have to remember this is Veeky Forums
You're not going to see threads about your index funds, because what is there to talk about? That 0.001% movement that happened last month?
Or maybe the change in interest rates frmo 3.99% to 3.98%?
Even though the numbers seem minimal, if you have a dayjob and you're just using "business" as a moonlighting thing, it's completely fine

But this is Veeky Forums
Everyone is NEETs, everyone wants to be rich, everyone wants a new world order where the new millionaires aren't the Chad sons of jews, but losers in their basements who shilled coins

So you'll see coin threads
Because they go 400% up (and down) in hours
Because it's a constant roller coaster of emotions
And because they produce more memes in 24 hours than the combined business conglomerate could in an entire fucking century

Brb gonna go buy gold

Stocks have no value. Buy crypto

>i don't think the oil demand will drop significantly anytime soon. by far most cars are still petrol and they'll be on the road for a while. also more people, more ship transport, planes and shit
user, demand already has dropped relatively significantly in the past few years. The huge glut is due not only to the big production increases in 2014 but also large demand reductions from both the west and emerging markets. The dollar strengthened considerably in the 2014-2015 period which lead to reduced demand in EM countries due to US dollar denominated debts and the other factors associated with their currencies' weakening relative to the dollar.

Also the automotive industry is currently in the process of rolling over on a global scale - we're already seeing some horrendous sales figures from top auto companies as well as ballooning inventories (inventory-to-sales ratios are approaching 2009 highs).

>happens when they go bankrupt
Goes to zero. Assets sell at a 50% discount which leaves nothing for the shareholders
>fredriksen has a new drilling thing he'll get going?
I know there are going ons but haven't followed it. I only know seadrills balance sheet and market condition. But I don't think sdrl can be saved from chapter 11, they'll at least have to cut down dramatically. Which just means a smaller company and less for shareholders

You must remember seadrill is the worst in the whole sector.

I own atwood oceanics btw for the long run

Coins look like a bubble to me.. No underlying value (lolbertarians pls go). I would get out when things start to get sketchy tbqh

Normies still can't buy altcoins with a one-click option
Every BTC buying option still requires documents to be submitted and takes days/weeks
You still can't buy any crypto with banks
No media attention aside from rare "This guy made [ridiculous sum] buying BTC years ago! But it's too late for you!" articles
99.99% of people not even knowing altcoins aside of BTC exist

We haven't even ENTERED the bubble

It's about the production side of the story. There is already significant underinvestment in extraction(can't find chart). This has to lead to a supply drop which kills the glut and brings prices where they are profitable again for a business that has sustainably high capex

>atwood oceanics
i hope you got in post the 2013-2015 crash. will probably be good long-term

sure. at least altcoins. but you can always short them on the way down. easier to make money in crypto than in the stock market. there seems to be far less competition from professional traders/investors/hegde funds etc

But do you think this has a real chance of becoming an accepted currency or is it just riding the wave?
You need increasing capital inflow to make prices go up. If there aren't new buyers every time prices won't rise

Got it at $8 but I still have a lot of cash so I can buy more if it goes lower

doubles confirm.

Market saturation is a prerequisite for a bubble. We have barely scratched 0.01% of the market.

What we experience now is a highly volatile timeframe caused by large movements into and out of the crypto markets.

HODL FAST MEN! RICHES AND RARE PEPES AWAIT!

>Coins look like a bubble to me.. No underlying value (lolbertarians pls go)
I'm a Libertarian (right wing, of course, I value freedom, liberty and free market capitalism) and I believe cryptocurrencies are in a bubble, I agree that they have no underlying value as they are simply digital fiat currencies when it comes down to it. Personally I am into the precious metals market in a big way right now, I see Gold and Silver going a lot higher over the next few years - besides the fact that they're the ultimate assets for preservation of wealth anyway. Stock markets are in a bubble, real estate is mostly in a bubble, auto sector is in a huge bubble which is currently popping, cryptos are a bubble, oil has too much downside potential... therefore I value PMs right now, especially given the fact that I believe the value of fiat currencies themselves (like the dollar, euro, pound sterling etc.) will be thrown into question in the coming years.

I miss the doom and gloom 2008 tier catashtrope threads the most. Talking about coins gets old fast.

Might start doing altcoins for fun but my autism says I have to buy stocks(probably because I went to business school where this sort of thing obviously wasn't discussed)

>missed btc
>missed altcoin gold rush

PLEASE LET ME GET RICH FROM MEME AND POOCOINS

What makes gold and silver have an underlying value?

>Market saturation is a prerequisite for a bubble. We have barely scratched 0.01% of the market.
You're gonna see some serious shit when the overvalued stock market blows up and takes all the leverageplayers with it.

>I value freedom, liberty and free market capitalism
Me too me too
I was referring to the idea that markets are absolutely efficient and thus bubbles aren't possible

You'll be seeing a lot more of them soon, trust me. The upcoming next stage of the crisis is going to be bigger than 2008. We are in the "Everything Bubble" right now, primarily due to the reckless policies of central banks across the world since the bursting of the sub-prime mortgage bubble. Record low interest rates and unprecedented currency creation have created asset bubbles everywhere and all bubbles burst - only this time will be much, much worse.

Will it be this summer or next summer you think?

Next year's summer seems more likely.

They have been used as money for the past 5000 years - especially Gold due to its very unique and ideal properties as a store of value over long periods of time. See this great series by Mike Maloney for more details:

youtube.com/watch?v=DyV0OfU3-FU

>missed BTC
we all did
>missed altcoin
Nope, got on the ETH train at 9$ and im riding it to 1200$

Ive posted this before but I will reiterate.
Bitcoin is the best store of value out there, and will appreciate against fiat currencies until those go into hyperinflation and cease to exist.
The USA will soon be unable to pay the interest on it's loans, and forced to inflate even more. At some point there is no other way out but hyperinflation. Stock markets will get hit, hard. Bitcoin should be part of a healthy hedge strategy at the very least, but if you are into higher risk, it could be the opportunity of a lifetime.
The only thing that might wipe out the value of bitcoin at this point would be a quantum computer breaking cryptography. Not likely to happen soon.

Yeah, and you know what's funny? It's starting to kick off from where it did the last time: interest rate hikes.

Let me just challenge that for a bit because we are in a deleveraging when it comes to total economic debt.
Nyse margin debt however is at an all time high.
So maybe it's just an equities bubble?

With the fed raising rates above 1% now you think the collapse whill be this summer or next summer?

RIP oil how are those Saudi richfags gonna cope?

>great series
>by Mike (the gold bug) Maloney

holy shit

Adoption by poorfags is a non issue and a noobtrap. The realization by the rich that bitcoin will over time always appreciate vs fiat will prompt more and more of them to hedge some of their wealth in bitcoin. The protocol has proven itself to be safe and sound. Fiat is not sound. Value moves from unsound money to sound money, it's a no-brainer, just like any third worlder rather holds dollars than their national currencies. The rich will store value and transact in bitcoin more and more.
Poorfags will buy their coffee with whatever shitcoin gets rammed down their throat by their govt's.

>So maybe it's just an equities bubble?
Can't be. QE and s decade of rates being -0,x - 0% have created unique circumstances in which all asset classes have been leveraged to shit.

Equities are definitely in a bubble but they're not the only bubble out there. Real estate across many regions of the world is also way overstretched - house prices in the US, UK and other western nations are still at huge wage multiples relative to the historic mean. The automotive industry is also in a bubble as I mentioned before, but this one is currently bursting - recent sales figures have been abysmal and will continue to worse, expect to see "sub-prime auto loans" as a common term in headline news within 8 months or so.

>With the fed raising rates above 1% now you think the collapse whill be this summer or next summer?

In some sectors it has already begun - e.g. auto, CRE, retail. The deteriorating global economy as a whole will likely be headline news by next Summer.

Not an argument. Everyone has something to sell, Mike just so happens to be correct however.

The first government to crack down hard on bitcoin out of desperation will find that whatever they do or try, their fiat currency will inflate and depreciate against bitcoin. People, especially those who are better off will find ways, since you can now store literally millions in your head, by remembering a seed for your wallet that amounts to a short sentence. No other value store offers this possibility.
Even if bitcoin dips and halves in value, it'll long term appreciate against fiat. It's a mathematical certainty.
There is NO WAY to manipulate the bitcoin ledger except by BUYING, SELLING, OR MINING (eg expending real world value in energy). This is so huge vs. fiat, it's insane. Ofcourse there is fud but every year the fudders look more and more crazy (bitcoin will go back to $0.01 any day now!).

Fucking this.

Out of curiosity, have you read about the big players pulling out or started shorting? Jim Rogers pulled out and some mutual funds have started to place themselves into bearish put positions.

Who else is SDRL bagholder master race for life here?

Drill baby drill

You seem smart.

What cryptocurrencies do you recommend I invest in?

Filthy dumb boomer scum. Is this your first btc ath? It won't be your last. promise.

lol no way. how long? don't tell me you listened to runke-roger

All the original peak oil theorists were always correct, just wrong on two things.

1) The year

2) That the collapse of oil price will be deflationary instead of inflationary. Because oil moves the world economy, any blow will cause critical deflation instead of inflation. I imagine in the future oil and many commodities will go down like 50% in price, but wages will go down like 80%.

This this this

Long enough to 100% know I'm not getting my money back. Listened to a dumbass friend actually...did a lot of coccain and we were all like FUCK YEAH WOLF OF WALLSTREET MOTHERFUCKING OIL INVESTORS.

And that's when I decided to stop investing while very high. And while watching oil fall I saw bitcoin rise. And, eventually I caved and began DD on this shitcoin craze

kek. Go atwood or ensco m8

t. neet

Wait until the stock market declines and buy an index fund

all it takes is one teensy little unrecoverable crash

>But do you think this has a real chance of becoming an accepted currency or is it just riding the wave?
i dunno. before i thought definitely not but now im not so sure. even if useless as a traditional currency, it still has it's place as an alternative store of value. i think cryptocurrencies are here to stay in some form for a very very long time. maybe not any of the existing ones, but in some form. sure there will be massive fucking crashes and shit on the way though

just go in with a small amount that you can afford to comfortably lose in case it goes to shi. it's high risk / high reward. currencies with larger market caps typically have less risk, but obviously all crypto has risk and is very volatile. that's the fun though

>Wait until the stock market declines and buy an index fund
pls buy index futures instead. more gainsnot now though. everything's expensive. wish we'd just get a 2008-level crash already

This isn't an economics board you cuck, we go where money can be found.

This guy gets it.