Three major Wall Street banks are now issuing warnings to investors that global markets are in the final stages of their rally, and an economic downturn will soon hit stocks everywhere. Bloomberg reports:
>HSBC Holdings Plc, Citigroup Inc. and Morgan Stanley see mounting evidence that global markets are in the last stage of their rallies before a downturn in the business cycle. Analysts at the Wall Street behemoths cite signals including the breakdown of long-standing relationships between stocks, bonds and commodities as well as investors ignoring valuation fundamentals and data. It all means stock and credit markets are at risk of a painful drop. “Equities have become less correlated with FX, FX has become less correlated with rates, and everything has become less sensitive to oil,” Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley’s chief cross-asset strategist, wrote in a note published Tuesday.
Morgan Stanley’s model reportedly shows assets across the world are “the least correlated in almost a decade.” And, just as prior to the 2007 start of the Great Recession, investors are pricing assets based on the risks specific to an individual security and industry, and shrugging off broader drivers. The report also states:
>Oxford Economics Ltd. macro strategist Gaurav Saroliya points to another red flag for U.S. equity bulls. The gross value-added of non-financial companies after inflation—a measure of the value of goods after adjusting for the costs of production—is now negative on a year-on-year basis ... The thinking goes that a classic late-cycle expansion—an economy with full employment and slowing momentum—tends to see a decline in corporate profit margins. The U.S. is in the mature stage of the cycle—80 percent of completion since the last trough—based on margin patterns going back to the 1950s.
what does this mean for crypto? a bump for btc incoming?
Dylan Price
Our grass is looking greener every day.
Asher Bailey
I second this. What will happen to BTC and why?
Liam Cooper
Good, good...
Benjamin Gutierrez
Honestly, we don't fucking know. We've never had to face something like the 08 recession. The general theory of crypto says that we should do well, or even prosper as the fiat currencies lose value.
But it's entirely possible we could go the other way, as more and more people pull out of crypto to pay off their debts. It will likely spell the end of a lot of shitcoins and the market would consolidate around the useful ones, much like the dotcom bubble.
Either way, it's going to be an interesting ride.
Christian Sanders
not alot in the short term from the north american market, normies are slow adaptors, gooks will jump the gun ALOT quicker, the west will soon pickup after seeing the gooks/nips raking in money and THEN the west will pick up. will be fairly slow desu. buying crypto and exchanging is still hard for normies. we won't see people joining cryptos enmass even now, theres less than 1% who owns cryptos in the global population unless there is an app that is normie friendly. the "smart investors" ofcourse will go balls deep, we will make it big whenever this happens, but dont sell everything then, this will make normies want to get in, big guys will make a murder, i would start selling when the late percentile of normies enter the market tho.
Joseph Campbell
The problem with the idea of everyone piling into crypto to save their wealth is most people with wealth still don't even know how to buy a Bitcoin much less an altcoin. And when global markets are tanking and it takes 2 weeks to get your identity confirmed on exchanges as it is with even such a low number of users now, it would be too late for most to get Bitcoin except buying OTC.
Ian Moore
wasnt there some event in china that caused a bum for btc?
Carter Martinez
They will learn how to. When your wealth is at stake waiting for an identity confirmation isn't a big deal.
Well, a recession means less consumer spending, which causes downward pressure on prices. This affect is dependent on the industry and the time span of the recession, but downward pressure on prices equates to more purchasing power for consumers. This is deflationary. Deflation is not good for bitcoin, because it has an inverse relationship with inflation. This isn't all bad, because recessions dont happen in a vacuum. The FED will lower interest rates by increasing the money supply. This in turn is an inflationary effect, which is good for bitcoin. It all depends on how bad things get. Also, keep in mind these assholes are kind of what caused the last recession. Didn't they just sort of say, "muh economy getting bad" and everyone sort of just believed them? I get it housing bubble, but the only major bubble we're dealing with, at least as far as i've seen, is student loans - which have caused younger people from investing in long term assets like newer cars and of course, homes and all the upkeep that goes with them. just my 2 sats.
Luke Hall
There's also the huge bond bubble..
Either way more and more people will keep flowing into crypto
Jacob Moore
Housing bubble is still there. We did literally nothing to fix it after 08. Still giving out loans like mad.
Wyatt Jenkins
.... Good troll, check out the macro again.
David Cruz
i heard this same outlook back in November just before Trump was elected
market is up... what...16% since then?
Luke Mitchell
can you shills fuck off for an hour? just one
Josiah Brown
QRD on the bond bubble please?
Ayden Hughes
But what's this gotta do with crypto currencies?
Leo Scott
people have been screaming bond buble for 8 years now they are retards lead by 90 year old senile alan greenspan
Wyatt Lee
forgot the pic
Adam Campbell
>takes 2 weeks In case there are newbies here, you can get BTC IN ONE HOUR once you've researched opsec >generate adress (offline) and print paper wallet bitcoinpaperwallet dot com, then confirm key >find the best deal from estabished seller on localbitcoin dot com >send money, come home and click paid, many sellers approve the escrow right away
From there you can get electrum, sweep to electum then send some to bittrex. Higher transfer fee and it gets there sooner, hange it to altcoins in no time
Owen Wood
Do this during bank/westernunion hours
Jackson Campbell
actually you dont evenneed a paper wallett that's just how i did it
You can send it directly from LBC to electrum and disperse from there
or even send it direct to bittrex or binance
On Binance is much easier to take out your coin
Easton Clark
As long as interest rates stay reasonably low, there is no bond bubble.
Nathaniel Parker
as long as its a bag of reb balloons. every balloon is red in the bag. the bond bubble IS low interest rates genis. the fucking jew pigs and their bitch boy politicians destroyed a generation in USA. Now a generation in USA is going to destroy the jews. REVENGE ON THE FILTH JEW kill them all
Mason Evans
literally the worst fed chairman ever. I hold grenspan's comments with zero regard.
Jose Long
Kind of this but you can deposit pretty quick to coinbase. I only think it takes a day or two to use debit. The $$$ coinbase would rake in from debit fees... my god.
Matthew Bennett
Why would stocks crash? What the fuck else are you going to do with your money. Fed won't increase rates because they know this. Stocks are not going to crash, relative to USD. Thing is inflation will be and already has been much, much higher than predicted. This is going to be a currency crash. Prices will skyrocket. The average person will probably have 2/3 the purchasing power in a couple years. This is good for crypto.
Zachary Reyes
The fuck I invested 30k in funds and stocks in the last month
Brayden Ward
You did good, buy high, sell low
Ethan Anderson
Stocks are way overpriced. There will be a market correction. The USD will also crash which pretty much every other currency in the world except crypto is based on the USD.
Cameron Garcia
>the bond bubble IS low interest rates genis.
At least I can spell genius. And, interest rates aren't going up in any hurry. Not a bubble. Normal state of affairs, dipshit.
Oliver Flores
Rothschild Capital Partners released their half-yearly shareholder report last week.
Not looking good.
Zachary Richardson
Report from last year.
Joshua Brown
The money has to be invested somewhere!
Where will it go? Emerging markets? Silver? Crypto?
Jace Davis
Closed-casket funerals
Landon Robinson
at this point emerging markets and crypto can be lumped into the same category
Sebastian Russell
buy helium now
Ayden Fisher
I hope this doesn't apply to my country t. Mediterranean
Chase Mitchell
emerging markets will take a big hit first, but the USD losing value is good for emerging markets because its means cheaper oil. once emerging markets realize they'd be a whole lot better off selling their products to their own citizens rather than the US, its all ogre.
until crypto becomes used as money, it will remain a speculative asset that people only buy because they predict it will be worth millions one day. it could spike once more, or the panic will cause the house of cards will come tumbling down.
silver/gold is the safest hedge against a currency collapse but a pain to buy physically.
Daniel Rodriguez
You guys are fucking idiots.
what good is it going to be when BTC is worth 20,000 usd
But a loaf of bread is gonna be 500 bucks
Jaxson Wright
This
Jordan Bennett
Crypto has been known to the mainstream normies since mt gox It's an established market right now
Brandon Cook
What's the best way to buy gold without dealing with themmmm?
Jack Cruz
>tfw invested in large cap US dividend yielding stocks
...how fucked am I?
Julian Cruz
At least no taxes next year on them
Owen Reed
local dealers are higher priced usually. big online sellers are best. JM bulion accepts payment in btc. american eagles are usually worth the premium you pay bc its the most trusted and easy to resell. private minted rounds are second best, like silver buffalos, etc. you get the best value by buying bars, which is good you want to invest in the metal itself, but inconvenient for using as actual money compared to coins. never buy numismatic scam coins.
I've been looking into (((goldmoney.com.))) you buy ownership of gold and they can even deliver at least 100 grams to you. they have many vaults worldwide to store the gold you """"own.""""
Tyler Green
can you say this in non meme speak please? like realistically, what percentage of the world, let alone the english speaking world, actually can piece together a single coherent sentence describing bitcoin.
or do you want me to point at the 10% oscillations in the market that might mean it's not really established yet.
Sebastian Cooper
only if i sell at a loss though. I'll still get taxed on the div right?
Caleb Lee
shut the fuck up. a loaf of bread wont be $500 for more than a decade
as for the rest of traditional investors, im not a "shill" because I think that crypto should be part of a balanced portfolio. If you do not include crypto in your portfolio, you are fucking blind.
Justin Cook
> shut the fuck up. a loaf of bread wont be $500 for more than a decade Tell that to Venezuela
Jose Powell
What's the deal with buying gold with crypto from these sites btw? I've heard they don't report buys to the IRS is this true? And if so is it only over a certain amount?
Justin Jackson
7-9 months.
Quicker if there is a debt ceiling showdown.
Aiden Clark
bump also when trade gold at commercial shop (not pawn shop) do they take detailed info? enough for IRS to identify you?
