Without falling into zerohedge mode, how soon you think next recession will happen and how bad it's gonna be?
Without falling into zerohedge mode, how soon you think next recession will happen and how bad it's gonna be?
Brody Martinez
Landon Sullivan
I see you just posted this in pol. Assuming you are not datamining, it's beginning now.
Landon Miller
Sorry dude, I didn't. I stay out of /pol/ anyway.
Mason Cox
/pol/ is for retards.
Jacob Russell
within 2 years, very bad
Michael White
My mistake
Aaron Stewart
Will china burst too?
Robert Mitchell
China's taking steps to protect itself by
cracking down on capital flight (hence why no new crypto investment can come out of PBoC) and reducing reliance on oil through massive green energy campaigns, and this is pushing it even more towards its isolationist tendencies.
The Chinese housing bubble is absolutely immense in scale though, and there's a reason Chinese are buying up land in Canada; their growth numbers are fake, everyone knows it, and Mao's lost generation is the first generation with real wealth, but it's coupled with the ignorance of a failed public education system whose destructive potential was only identified ~25 years ago.
I don't think we'll see NoKo levels of starvation, but I'm very glad I'm not in China at this very moment.
Jason Moore
would bitcoin and crypto not become a safe haven in a recession though? gold and silver sky rocket under a recession and last time there was one crypto did not exist so there is no way to tell what will happen
Jeremiah Parker
How do I make it through the great depression alright?
hard mode:
>$28k in student debt
>just graduated with bachelor's in mechanical engineering, no job yet
>serious health condition
>no money to invest
Should I just go full comfy mode and go to grad school and have them pay for everything? I should be able to land a funded RA position okay, but I'm not sure if that would all dry up in case shit really hits the fan.
Brody Smith
If you want yet another discussion about cryptos, make another thread, simply because this topic is to big to be discussed without completely derailing the original one. Please understand.
Jason Cook
>serious health condition
Really sucks to have, especially in modern murrica. At least you have a real ed. I guess try finding ANY position just to get the exp, then consider emigrating to country with functional healthcare system if you'll still be alive at that point.
Nathaniel Morgan
I moved my full 100k of my 401k into bonds. That's where I think this shit is headed.
Chase Stewart
What is the health condition?
Wyatt Brooks
1st step get a job and work on that debt, if they can pay for grad school why not, you will sit in univ comfy mode while shit hits the fan. Good luck fella
Ryder Sullivan
I don't think China is just protecting itself. China is positioning itself to be the head of the next global gold backed monetary system and the biggest player in the one belt one road system. Who knows if they get it and hold it because there are also India and Russia who have prepared, but the US will need to rebuild and probably will be shunned for a bit.
Jace Butler
It may or may not honestly. I could see in Authoritarian areas like China and Germany the State having enough control to force the use of a gold backed fiat crypto. At least for the majority of the population. In other places I don't think the government will be strong enough to force a centralized currency again
Charles Foster
It interesting to to think abouth what will be the catalyst for the next US recession. There is a glut of good, cheap used cars that is going to start negatively affecting new car sales.
US wages and inflation remain low even with full employment numbers. In fact, deflation is starting to take over in sectors like food and new technology.
Then you have the swtich to electric cars and automation. This is personally what I think will devestate the economy in its current form. Our economic system is not set up for anything we are about to see. Imagine 90% of people no longer needed in the energy sector. Once every house and business has a soloar roof and hoseholds become self sufficient, there will not be enough new jobs created fast enough. Combine that with the 6 to 9 million driving jobs lost due to automated cars and you have a real problem on your hands.
Low skilled jobs will not exist in the future and that is what most Americans are trained for. This huge structural change is coming to our economy very soon and we are doing very little to prepare for it.
Connor Jones
>Once every house and business has a soloar roof and hoseholds become self sufficient, there will not be enough new jobs created fast enough. Combine that with the 6 to 9 million driving jobs lost due to automated cars and you have a real problem on your hands.
>Low skilled jobs will not exist in the future and that is what most Americans are trained for.
Well that will not be next recession's trigger. Though I think it will eat into the recovery curve and slow it down noticeably.
Christopher Ward
What can a 23 year old Business/IT grad, living in the most expensive city in the world - London, do to prepare for this upcoming shitstorm ?
I just want lambos and houses
Carson Perez
Boomers are going to start retiring again now that they're back up. Once big indices dip 10% the short selling will start. Looking at ~1200 S&P 500 short term. Except this time there is already trillions of QE, inflation will skyrocket. All growth specifically tech will plummet. The likes of Facebook and Google will probably no longer exist in 5 years. In 5 years stocks will recover but the dollar will have 1/4 the purchasing power. In 2024 when Trump leaves they'll elect someone like Bernie Sanders who will try to rebuild but we'll be a has been nation by then. I've already cashed out though so I don't give a fuck what happens.
Parker Fisher
Crash will trigger WWIII and the US Civil War at the same time. Europe is invaded by Russia and China and the insaion forced already there, Islam and wiped off the face of the earth. US finishes its civil war around this time and Hitler 2 rises from the ashes. Right as WWIV is about to kick off, Yellowstone blows up and mankind dies a slow death of freezing and starvation.
Xavier Garcia
Fuck you, no it isn't.
Carson Harris
It really depends on how fast and how many people lose their jobs. Im expecting a swift change once production starts ramping up. A few years really.
Robert Shiller wrote an interesting piece linking declining productivity to the uncertainty created by this looming technology.
This shift doesn't need to hurt the economy, but too many are over leveraged mantaining the status quo that you will notice a fall out from all of this.
Kayden Torres
guys I said no zerohedge pls lmao
That technology will have to deliver first. So far I mostly see hype and lots of shitty start-ups instead of something really tectonic. It would be extremely ironic if the recession will actually be triggered by bubble of this 3dprinting/VR/robots bursting
Benjamin Butler
A recession would fuck cryptocurrency so hard it would go back to fucking 2001 where party hats were 5k each
Cooper Taylor
Do you have any links for those juicy research papers?
Kevin Jenkins
generic le recession porn on bloomberg
Gabriel Taylor
Ah ok. I thought you had this kind of good stuff:
fa.morganstanley.com
Jonathan Gray
Whole western world is going down with the debt.
In europe you have also the demographic issue, where local people are aging and fertility rate is beyond ridiculously low, only migrants have kids.So you will have 50% of the population over 60 years old, nearing retirement age with pension funds that are gone with the zero rates.
In usa the fertility rate is better even with locals so they will survive a bit longer than europe but they will too go with the debt issue which is raising taxes every year and lowering disposable income. Everything is moving to asia for the next 100-200 years asia will be the next capital of the world and banking
Nathan Thomas
yep the pension ponzi scheme will crash biblically