So, they were the protagonists of history all along

When?

>a hundred years or so
nigga by that time we will be in robot bodies slaving away for ShangaiCorp on Mars.

MAGA!

I bet this is the same guy who been posting Rome-China comparison threads and splerging about China on Japan threads
chink attention whores

>everyone who likes East Asia is one person

I feel as though protagonist implies individualism, which is not China's aim

>forgetting the gook's insect like hivemind
Might as well be

Of all the nations of Asia, you pick the one who are basically indian tier, both in term of their oldness (which doesn't mean shit tb.h) and their dirtiness and barbarism
And don't pretend this is a proper thread, its basically a shitpost

>in term of their oldness (which doesn't mean shit tb.h)
American detected

>When?

Probably very soon. Their stock market shit the bed in early 2016, which only stopped due to Beijing banning certain investors from selling stock. While this stopped a stock crash, it has left those investors with toxic assets. Such a thing is totally untenable in the long term unless there is enough growth to outpace the growing losses. However this hasn't been happening, the downtown in 2016 began due to economic growth falling below 9%. As of last week, Beijing is optimistic it will hit about 6.5%. 10% is needed for all the original bagholders to break even, 11-12% for gains. Also last week, Beijing announced huge cuts to domestic industry production, disguised as a "pollution crackdown" it was really just a way to fire millions of workers to get them off payrolls of major companies who are taking on larger and larger amounts of debt. This will of course impact their ability to build an economy independent of the United States.

The question is what will spark it's collapse, most people guess that it will be Trump imposing steel tariffs and sparking a trade war which will crash their exports and thus production, leading to more layoffs and lower consumption, the same death cycle that fucked the US economy in 2008.

Honestly that movie was super lame when they swapped Norks in for Chinese. They could have made a really popular film but didn't at the last minute because they wanted a shot at Chinese distribution.

It really doesn't. Greece is one of the oldest countries in Europe, and one of the poorest. Having a strong heritage doesn't mean anything, a thing which China itself tries to stick to America as they attempt to become the new dominant world power.

t. Gordon Chang

I don't see how this will break apart China unless the decline hits catastrophic levels which it likely will not.

The worst thing (for china) that will happen is that because China doesn't have the economy to back it's power projection, Tibet might finally be able to break away (though probably not for long id it doesn't have international backing), and Hong Kong MIGHT be able to become its own city state if shit really hit the fan but that would be a fairy tale.

>Eric Goldberg

...

Is this unparalleled for China or have their had times of prosperity like this in the past - save for Han?

Was the Han era as prosperous, relatively ofc, as they are today?

>muh stocks
>muh bagholders
>muh gains
wow capitalists are mentally ill

>Authoritarian, patriarchal, cultural supremacist nation with 2000+ years of imperialism that has time and time again slaughtered millions of its own people
>the "protagonists"

The original comment was China "sputtering out", not breaking apart. China today stands in the same place Japan did in 1991: their economic growth period is over and they have to transition into one with less growth. This leads to the development of giant zombie companies with a lot of debt and not much operating profit.

Pic related, for as much Chinese gloat about how much US debt they own, "private" sector Chinese debt is already three times as great as the amount of US Treasury Bonds they own. This has major implications as these "private" firms are often owned by a larger publicly owned/managed conglomerate, which means Beijing is ultimately the one responsible for their financial stability. At least private companies can easily go bankrupt, write off their debts as losses and restructure - public companies cannot do that without the Chinese government's own ability to borrow money being hurt. S&P already began this process last month by downgrading China's credit from A+ to AA-.

China's experimented with private markets enough to create investors out of individual Chinese citizens. Three years ago, this was a thing Beijing proudly promoted as they encouraged people to buy stock through their state TV and relaxed investing rules. This created a huge bubble which there is only one way out of: an economic recession.

Such a thing is a natural part of the business cycle, which China hasn't had since their growth period began in the mid 90s. It's unavoidable and China's future will largely be determined in how Beijing reacts to market forces outside their direct control.

desu there are no protagonists in history

>g*rmans
>hellbent on the destruction of Europe
>*nglos
>literally the incarnation of the snake from the bible

You just described European nations, sans the 2k years, which you know damn well doesn't correspond to the modern state of China.

Would help if there were actually individuals with souls.

I really enjoy economic posts like these. It is informative, straight to the point, and nice to read. Good job, user.

The analogy breaks down when you realize that most Chinese companies are extremely under capitalized, and that Chinese people prefer savings over stocks.

The Chinese stock market is worth 10 trillion, on a GDP of 11 trillion.

US market capitalization is 25 trillion on a GDP of 18.6 trillion.

For full disclosure I made some posts on Veeky Forums a year ago predicting a chink stock collapse by now, which in total fairness hasn't happened. Things have largely stagnated, the official 6.5% number itself (1% yoy decline) is bad and more astute investors seem to think it's more like -2%, based upon falling electricity demand and the "polluted" factory closings. And in light of that, the huuuuuuuge amount of "private" sector debt being taken on is a big red flag that something very wrong is happening. There is no justification for debt loads that big when even the official growth indicates slowing growth.

I still believe in this idea because nothing adds up, the numbers only get weirder and weirder. Especially last week at China's big party Congress where the 6.5% number was touted as good, and the factory closings. Neither of those things are positive developments unless you're the CEO of a company that is going bankrupt. America itself just elected a protectionist President, Beijing's primary concern should be managing a recession (like they did in 2008, when the credit binge began) not trying to claim it's avoiding one.

Same for the recent boom in China's tech sector, which appears to be a 1-for-1 retread of the American dotcom boom in 1999.

With the advent of industrialization, of course China's current level of economic development is unprecedented in its history.

China is not like the Byzantine Empire. After losing control of the Western empire+Egypt+Levant, it seems to have spent the majority of its time facing existential political threats. China has had many golden ages during dynasties like the Zhou, Han, Tang, Song, Ming, and Qing. The Song Dynasty was probably the most prosperous pre-industrialization with high level of culture, urbanization, technology, and population (averaging around 100 million during the Northern Song period).

That's not really the situation anymore, Beijing loosened most restrictions on investing in 2013 as a means to pick up growth. It created a huge wave of naive investors who have bought into tech stocks thinking they'd make money. Here's some proof:

baka.com.au/business/chinas-state-media-encourages-investors-to-buy-more-stocks-20140904-10cakw.html
>China's state media encourages investors to buy more stocks
SEPTEMBER 4 2014

money.cnn.com/2015/04/01/investing/investing-stock-market-china/index.html
>Chinese investors trade way more often than Americans
April 1, 2015

>baka.com

this is supposed to be s m h .com, the sydney morning herald

>baka
pure trash never link to that as a credible news site again

I know they're pure trash, but they're reposting a Bloomberg article that is otherwise locked behind a hard paywall. They state as such at the top of the article. The original paywalled article, published on the same day, can be found here:

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-09-03/china-s-state-media-join-brokerages-saying-buy-equities

baka desu senpai

Where can I learn about the Chinese Tributary System that will be reimplemented in 10 years?

Something similar to current US hegemony but even then I dont think China exhibits the same characteristics as the US. The US has such a unique strategic location, its roughly comparable to the British Empire vs Imperial Germany

In your dreams Chang

Chinks are gotta be one of the most delusional and insecure people on this board

>people

"The way things are right now will always be how things are!"

He didn't say that.

Yep. The western world was just filler saga. Once the main story gets their story together, fillers are done.

So will China be going back to an insular agrarian system, or is the filler relevant to the main story?

The timeskip happened.

China will now go back as a futuristic dynasty instead of agrarian one.

Only 5-10 more years before they're ready to take the spot as the main character again.

nice projection

I feel so bad for the chinese kid even though its just a drawing :(

Protip: Chinese are smart enough to let go of the tribal mentality and invest in their futures. Meanwhile we invest in dating apps, they are investing purely in engineering feats like building AI and Quantum Satellites.

So don't feel bad, they'll pay us back in bit. I wonder if they'll feel bad, probably not. Fucking chinks.

nepotism is the standard in China, delegate any authority to them and they will fire a competent technician and replace him with their retarded uncle

The communist party has instituted a purge recently with Xi Jinping. Incompetant/corrupt are being culled like chickens in chicken factory. The brutal efficiency leaves very minimal human errors. Its both scary as fuck and impressive at the same time. This is what China should feel to people.

Good times. We use to exploit the system so bad that the Chinese officials had to beg to the emperor to stop diplomatic association and excessive “gift” missions with the said country, whilst the Chinese were getting absolute ass fucked by the Khitai, Xia and Jin.

When they become the top dogs and the entire world spotlights them instead of the US. China hates scrutiny, autistically hates it, they won't be able to deal with that and will either go insane, in a bad way, or worse, catch the liberal brain melting disease America currently has.

Or at least, their rhetoric gives the average person a shred of hope unlike judeofascist cuckitalism

with that many people i mean one has to be the protagonist
except by that logic i guess india is more likely to have the one

t. 1970s
t. 1990s
t. 2000s
t. 2010s

SAGE

Chink shill thread

guys stop with the nepotism mmkay
>okay that should do it

npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/10/24/559004647/what-is-the-motivation-behind-chinese-president-xi-jinpings-anti-corruption-driv

They're creating a new anti-corruption unit.

While there maybe anti-corruption drives involved in many local levels. At the top levels, this drive is merely a tool to root out anti-communist/pro-capitalist/liberal officials.

This thread is basically ''India superpower 2030'' shit except its chink and unironic

Please don't use my hero to shitpost on trash boards.

I love how they dont even try to reply to the Veeky Forums user because they cant deal in real world economics

China crashed and burned in the 1960s and was largely irrelevant until 2000 when trade relations were fully normalized with the United States. Since then they've had about ten years of economic boom, but since 2010 their economy has taken on huge amounts of debt as seen here . The only countries to also do this were the US before their 2008 financial crisis and Japan before their 1991 Nikkei collapse.

There is nothing special about China's market economy. The sooner Beijing realizes this the better it will be.

China has a higher median age than the USA. It's Europe tier.

The median woman is a hair under 40. They are about to face all the same mass retirement problems that are fucking Japan and Western Europe with a per capita GDP a fraction of developed nations.

China is going to have a rough 20s-50s.

The thing about China is it never really goes away. Even if there's a complete collapse it always bounces back, even if it takes centuries.

Yeah but in Japan all those old people will be dead in like a decade so it fixes itself.

says increasingly nervous american for the 50th time this year

honestly can't wait for chinese global hegemony
hopefully i'll live to see asia once again become the center of the world and the west return being an irrelevant backwater

It really doesn't, you may as well be a LARPer if you think you're connected to "muh 5000 years of history".

Shut up Kukuri, I'll use whoever I want.
lol

Countries can't take on unlimited amounts of debt forever. China's government has assumed more debt through their state banks in the past five years than the US government has in total over the past fifty.

This isn't sustainable.

we talking debt to gdp ratio?

Its a scary thought that China's iliberalism might dominate the future of humanity.

>This isn't sustainable
That's a myth. Starting from 2010 to 2016. The Chinese doubled their GDP. They will double again from 2016 to ~2022s.

So in those 5 years, when they borrowed money, they effectively paid off 50% of it already without paying anything. This is how you invest in growing economies. You buy shit when its low, and sell when its high. On in this case, borrow when low and pay when high. Business 101.

The government can effectively borrow when they are projected to grow their economy quite fast. This borrowing works out even more when you use it on key national infrastructures. The Chinese used more cement from 2011 to 2013 than the entire history of cement use in the United States combined. Think about that for a second.

China is growing at a rate so fast that its unimaginable to an average american, not only that its unimaginable to the average bankers/business leaders. Think about it for a second, their economy RIGHT NOW is 20% larger than the US. They have reached the US level parity in 2013. 20% larger in 2017. And 35% larger in 2020. 77% in 2030. Etc.

>They can't sustain their growth
Thats why they're banking on Belt/Road initiative. They're banking on rest of the world to keep them rich. They've got direct line in Russia/Turkey/Iran/Pakistan/SEA/etc. Indirect lines to US/Europe/Africa/etc

Well they're already communist so they got that one out of the way.

It won't though since the Chinks aren't autistic about exporting their governmental system to the rest of the world like the evangelical zealots in the West

>which you know damn well doesn't correspond to the modern state of China

But muh hurritage??

> their economy RIGHT NOW is 20% larger than the US.

What did he mean by this??

google.com/amp/amp.weforum.org/agenda/2017/03/worlds-biggest-economies-in-2017

he means PPP GDP, not nominal.

>The Chinese doubled their GDP. They will double again from 2016 to ~2022s.

They also quadrupled if not quintupled their private sector debt in the same period. This is not ok, this is not rational and this is not sustainable. To be clear debt overall is fine, but such massive increases in such short periods is clearly based on speculation and not existing demand.

>So in those 5 years, when they borrowed money, they effectively paid off 50% of it already without paying anything.

50% of the old debts. The debts they took at the peak of their GDP growth are structured upon that growth. Which means a loan taken out at 10% will likely be a loss if GDP growth is not 10%. In an attempt to pay these loans, Chinese banks had restrictions loosened to bring in new customers at lower rate loans. But this also does not work because GDP growth keeps falling too. This cannot continue, at some point everyone realizes the borrowers cannot pay and investors run. If too many borrowers fall, so does the bank. As people realize this they run to the bank and cash everything out, until the bank has no money.

>The government can effectively borrow when they are projected to grow their economy quite fast.

The money they need to cover their banks already exceeds 200% GDP. That is more than 25 Trillion dollars, what other bank could even issue that sort of loan? Only their internal banks can, but as they are state owned they are the exact same entities creating the debt! Which means all China would do is become permanently indebted to itself by about 2x their economy's total output. If debt payments are skipped then the credibility of the Chinese government itself crashes to the ground while their banks see their cash flow stop, stopping the economy.

Again, this strategy of "more debt" cannot hope to work in the long term. The only realistic strategy, and the one Beijing implicitly embraced by closing all the "polluting" factories, is to stop producing things at a loss and accept the job losses from layoffs. This would shove them into a recession, but it'd stop the incredible debt growth and prevent their banks from having problems.

So will the Sun.

>China today stands in the same place Japan did in 1991
Not even close. China is 50% urbanized. Japan was 90% urbanized in 1990.

Source?
Wikipedia says 37.4
Women live longer than men everywhere in the world. No wonder they have a higher median age.

Also, they are going through a baby boom. UN just pushed back the population peak to 2050.

The aging population in China is not a big deal because they don't have social security where the current batch of workers pay for the benefits of retirees.

Source?

China lends to itself. China doesn’t take any loans from foreigners. Most of the “debt bubble” is the government lending to State Banks. They literally could delete the debt instantly.

That is why real bond yields in China are low. Actual investors know the debt “bubble” is a fucking meme.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-30/conventional-view-of-china-s-problems-is-wrong-economist-argues
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-18/how-one-hedge-fund-ignored-the-china-bears-and-made-a-65-gain

You're right, good point. As a result of Japan being so urbanized most of the infrastructure Japan's government built in the succeeding lost decade are at least breaking even because their society is so heavily urbanized meaning demand for mass transit is high. By comparison China's expansion of high-speed rail into rural areas will never ever turn a profit which means Beijing will have to pay back their construction loans with taxpayer money or force their bank to accept it as a loss.

It's also worth mentioning that China's "great silk road" has largely become a vehicle for rich Chinese plutocrats to get money out of China instead of being an actual infrastructure modernization project the country overall could benefit from.

>China lends to itself. China doesn’t take any loans from foreigners. Most of the “debt bubble” is the government lending to State Banks.

Yes this is my point. If you're lending money to yourself, you still have to pay back your loans. If you're borrowing 200% of your net worth, that means you must pay back 200% of your net worth in order to not run out of money. In this situation either your net worth rises by 200% to pay the loan, or it doesn't and you default which causes you to run out of cash.

>That is why real bond yields in China are low. Actual investors know the debt “bubble” is a fucking meme.

Yes, government treasury issued debt bonds, not state bank issued loans (another type of bond). On paper China's government has very low debts and has a huge operating profit, it's only when one realizes all their major "private" companies are state owned do problems arise. Namely if China's banks all have cash flow problems, Beijing is expected to bail them out. But Beijing cannot hope to do that unless they write off trillions in bad debt as losses, which would cause their banks' ability to issue and accept debt to be crushed thus severely harming their economy.

Also to comment on your article directly:

>There are 1.4 billion Chinese and they’re moving into urban areas, and though urbanization has slowed, it’s still going to go up.

Things break here when things slow. As the amount of new buyers decreases year-over-year, homeowners (either individual people or banks) still have to make their own debt payments for existing inventory. This cost does not decrease, which is a problem if the loans were taken out in 2007/8 or 2011/2 when interest rates were higher than present GDP growth. Basically, people will be paying interest on loans that is worth more than it should be. This also says nothing of the house's price itself, if buying is slowing then so is sale price growth. If sale price slows too much, or hits a number most people cannot pay, then inventory remains vacant unless prices come down. This can pose a problem if homes are built expecting a low profit margin (say due to an extremely competitive industry, such as during a construction boom funded by cheap government credit), as prices cannot decrease much without the owner taking a loss and thus being unable to pay back their loans.

Basically it all comes back to: debt and who can pay it. The exact same problem the US economy hit in 2008.

Additionally your article supposes that rural people would be able to easily trade their rural properties for urban ones, this doesn't actually drive up demand for anything all it does is move money around. And that's even assuming rural people could get a reasonable value for their property, at a price that would afford them to "trade up" into an urban one. More often than not this isn't the case due to the lower demand for rural properties against urban ones.

Source?
China’s railroad companies and HSR has been pulling a profit for years now.

You also seem to be ignoring the fact that the government provides services to its people. Not to make a profit.

>you still have to pay back your loans
No you don’t. If you owe yourself the money you lent to yourself, you actually have no debt.
>Yes, government treasury issued debt bonds,
The very government bonds the USA issued in 2008-2009 to bailout the banks. Since then US GDP is up 25%.

China’s debt problem is only a problem on paper. Why? Because one company’s debt is another’s assets. As long as Chinese owe themselves, the net DEBT/ASSET ratio does not change.

>if buying is slowing then so is sale price growth.
You need to retake econ101. In no way is that claim necessarily true.

>China’s railroad companies and HSR has been pulling a profit for years now.

Overall yes but many individual lines are not so, this is a problem as their construction costs still have to be paid back. It's an inefficient use of resources at best, and a crippling debt problem at worst (a real issue considering the creation of debt-heavy zombie companies in nearby Japan).

>No you don’t. If you owe yourself the money you lent to yourself, you actually have no debt. China’s debt problem is only a problem on paper. Why? Because one company’s debt is another’s assets. As long as Chinese owe themselves, the net DEBT/ASSET ratio does not change.

WRONG. When someone demands a 200% loan, they are asking for new money (200% of their existing net worth). Someone has to write this check, and in this case it would be either China's banks or China's government. If they fail to pay each other, both have a cash flow crisis while their credit score crashes into the ground. As it pertains to this issue specifically: China's government would get the loan from their banks to completely pay off the bad bank loans. This then leaves China's government with a debt-to-GDP ration of 200%, which they must pay down or else their banks stop operating as they aren't receiving the cash to pay off their original loans.

The alternative is to pay money. Which creates another problem: inflation. Let's suppose that China prints 200% of their GDP to pay down their debts, the Yuan's value would decline by that amount and become worth a quarter of it's present value. The US and WTO would be quick to label this "currency manipulation" and enact Tariffs, crashing China's industrial production and forcing the layoffs the initial 200% loan was meant to avoid. This would also have the affect of increasing all imports to China by 200%, a major problem as China is a net food importer.

This is essentially a Ponzi scheme, and is why China's government won't do it because it would cause fiscal problems to spread from the banking system to the government itself.

>You need to retake econ101. In no way is that claim necessarily true.

Supply and Demand determines price. All else equal if demand growth is slowing, so will price growth because there are less buyers entering the market. This remains true even in extreme scenarios of restricted supply and overabundant supply. The only exceptions are when price ceilings or subsidies are introduced, which can keep prices rising at a constant rate despite slowing demand.

Of course, China's markets are imperfect due to the huge amount of government influence. In particular, the predatory lending state-owned banks will engage in to meet their government-mandated quotas. This is bad because this means banks are giving loans to people they know cannot actually pay them, the exact scenario that the US was in 2008. But I give China the benefit of the doubt, as any discussion of their shadow banking system only works against them.

>The alternative is to pay money.

*print money

How are you preparing for the Chinese century?