How long would it have to take Japan if America hadn't the atomic bomb ?

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Starved out by mid 1946.

Perhaps less or more if they went with an invasion of the home islands. Japs had 2000 or so kamikaze planes ready to set loose at mass landing.

Whatever happened the Japanese would have paid dearly. Casualties through the roof, even by WW2 standards.

American territory because the Japs would be dead. The death toll would be in the 70% because the US wasn't going to fuck around with the land invasion

mid 1946
Japan would surrender to the US the second the USSR starts preparing to make a land invasion
This is primarily the reason why the US dropped two nukes on Japan, to force them to surrender quickly to them before the USSR grabbed too much. Also to send a message who's boss.

>USSR makes a land invasion
With what fucking ships? How the fuck was the USSR suppose to get pass the United States Navy and Air Force who kept Japan fucking circled.

I hate this fucking meme. The US had no plans to split the Inavsion of Japan with the Soviets.

The same time. Japan surrendered because of the Soviet invasion of Manchuria.

>the second the USSR starts preparing to make a land invasion
With what? The USSR navy was practically nonexistent, and the USA certainly wasn't going to give them access to it.

I want these two reddit historians to tell me how did the USSR invade the Kuriles, Sakhalin islands, and North Korea (they made an amphibious invasion, not a land one) and a source displaying the naval capability of the USSR at 1945

Would have been starved out and went straight into third world shit hole
In a way the nukes where the best ending for japan

Amerimutts are not allowed into this board
They have only basic primary-grade/early childhood education on history matters
Consider improving your argument

Speaking like an ape is a bannable offense in this board.

>How they get North Korea
Made a deal with the US and during the Soviet Inavsion of Manchuria the 1st and 5th Armies of the Far East Division using tanks attacked the retreatinf Japs andd stopped at the 38th Parallel.

>Kuriles and Sakhalin Islands
Kuriles were ordered to surrender. As for Kuriles the United States used Project Hula in which thr US lent ships to the Soviets for their navy to use. Which also helped with Kuriles.

The Soviets fucking borrowed ships from the US

>Soviets borrowing US ships
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Hula

The soviet navy was non-existant if they had to borrow fucking ships

Oh look, it’s a leftypol revisionist

amerimutt detected

Asiatic Mongloid Sovietboo detected

quit raging on Veeky Forums and go tell tyrone to stop fucking your mother before you get begotten with a 7th mudblood brother

After the atomic the bombs the japanese were still convinced they could defeat the burgers somehow. It was the tussian invasion that caused them surrender. Since Russia would probably have attacked wether or not the US had the atomic bomb, nothing really changes on that front.

Losing Manchuria was probably a bigger blow to the Japanese than the atomic bombings. Sure, they were extremely destructive, but in the grand scheme of things they were just an increase in intensity of the already existing bombing campaign. Meanwhile losing all holdings on the Asian mainland would have robbed Japan of all resources to wage war. The invasion of Manchuria marked the complete defeat of the Japanese both on the Pacific and the Chinese front.

>muh Soviet invasion
Yes, the glorious red army had the logistics and willpower to cross all of Russia to then swim across to Japan and fight another costly and brutal war for the Japanese mainland

The US deminstating how easily they could delet Japanese cities had nothing to do with anything, it was a bunch of tin-can tanks and malnourished Siberians in Manchuria that saved the day!

>demonstrating
Curse my phoneposting

>implying I’m raging

Self projecting are we?

What was powerful about the atomic bombs wasn’t how many people it specifically killed or how much destruction it actually caused. The US killed more civilians in the Tokyo firebombings. The Atomic Bombs though send a louder message. America showed it has a weapon capable of easily wiping out entire cities in the blink of an eye incomparable to anything ever seen before, and most importantly, they weren’t afraid to use it. “We completely outclass you, with just a single plane carrying this bomb, we can kill you, all your friends and family, and everyone you’ve ever met in the city you live”

The atomic bombs were meant to send a message to the Soviets just as much as they were meant for the Japanese.

Are you fucking retarded? Do you realise that without manchuria Japan didn't have the resources to keep fighting? Also with the soviet declaration of war Japan lost all diplomatic manoeuvrability against the US as they were hoping that the soviets would support them to keep American influence from expanding. With the invasion of manchuria, the japanese high command realised that they have no way of preserving their empire and thus surrendered.

Again, the japanese still thought they could defeat the Americans after the atomic bombs dropped. They refused the surrender offer made to them by the americans. It was the Russians attacking them that caused the surrender as they realised they couldn't take on both the US and Russia at the same time.

Not that user, but...
Japan already was no longer able to fight with Manchuria dumb ass. The US was bombing the fucming main lands before the Soviets did anything proved they lost their naval, army, and air superiority.

Japan was already defeated and Sovieta fucking up Manchuria which could no longer be supplied helped speed up their surrender, but wasnt the main cause of it.

Why is soviet revisionism so rampany in ww2 threads in Veeky Forums? Do the historians fear the commie?

>Russia despite doing nothing in yhe Pacific until the very end was the reason why Japan surrendered. Nothing thr US did was the cause, even though they did all the work.

Veeky Forums is a massive haven for contrarianism. Anything "mainstream" is going to get derided here, often on extremely specious reasoning. Soviet revisionism, especially in the Pacific, is just one manifestation of that.

>Again, the japanese still thought they could defeat the Americans after the atomic bombs dropped. They refused the surrender offer made to them by the americans.

Wrong. They actually surrendered before the atomic bombs dropped.

It was going to be a fucking mess is what it was. They created so many Purple Heart awards in preparation for the land invasion that those Purple Hearts are still being given out today. Japan would become a shithole like Vietnam.

It is true that the USA did pretty much all the work in the pacific, but as i said earlier it was the soviet declaration of war that dealt the killing blow. Soviets not being neutral any more meant that Japan was going to fall no matter what, and because of this they surrendered.
You see, the japanese were hoping that thr soviets, wanting to keep american influence from spreading would support Japan in some way.

Except of course, there is literally no evidence to this effect. Show me say, some internal memos that talk about how now that the Soviets are involved, now it's hopeless.

Japan was going to fall regardless of what the Soviets did. They could no longer protect their island or project power.

Are you dumb? US had killed Japan before the Soviets joined. They firebombed the fucking capital city and was ready to invade the islands and purge the population.

Do you really think that the japanese, almost all of whose cities had been firebombed to fucking molecules, surrendered because another 2 relatively small cities were destroyed, or because the only state in the world that had any interest in somewhat preserving the japanese empire declared war?
Also i don't think that any official japanese reports on the topic have been released.

Hiroshima and Nagasaki
>Relatively small cities
Not that user, but this fucking bait. Thise ywo cities fucking disappeared from at an atomic level.

Also to counter. Why the fuck would the Japs care about the Soviets declaring war against them after they have been through all that.

>Do you really think that the japanese, almost all of whose cities had been firebombed to fucking molecules, surrendered because another 2 relatively small cities were destroyed, or because the only state in the world that had any interest in somewhat preserving the japanese empire declared war?
Actually, yes, given that they said this and the new weapon allowed for a greater prominence of the peace party within Japan to make another push for something they had been wanting since January at least.

>Also i don't think that any official japanese reports on the topic have been released.
nuclearfiles.org/menu/library/correspondence/togo-sato/corr_togo-sato.htm
Here are a list of cables between the Japanese government to their ambassador in the USSR; the guy who would have to be the one effecting any attempt to use the Soviets to mediate between them and the U.S. You'll note the absolute shit-show of the attempt even before the Soviets attacked, or the Americans dropped any bombs, and how their man on the scene thought the entire idea was impossible.

I dont see how your source disproves my point, if anything it validates it.

Any minuscule belief the Japanese had that they could beat the US was utterly wiped after the battle of Midway. They knew they had absolutely no fucking chance of winning very early on in the war.

Prior to the A-bombs getting dropped, not only didnt they think they could win, but they had already offered their surrender under the one condition that emperor Hirohito would not face a trial, be humiliated, or come to any harm, but the US demanded a full unconditional surrender. The US ultimately didn’t even do anything to Hirohito after the Japs finally gave in to an unconditional surrender, but Truman just wanted an excuse to show off his shiny new weapon to the Soviets.

Because your argument , as far as I can understand it, is as follows:

>Japan's last hope was that the Soviets would mediate between them and the Americans.
>Therefore, rather than the Atomic bombings, the Soviets entrance into the war against them was the decisive factor.
>Even if the Soviets were militarily ineffective, which they were not, they are no longer an avenue for mediation, and Japan has no more wriggle room.

Except that they had no effective plans to employ the Soviets to mediate, and their own ambassador had been telling the government for months it wasn't working, the Soviets were not interested, and this wasn't happening. Surely, if they were pinning their hopes on the Soviets that heavily, they would have surrendered in March or April when it clearly became hopeless on that score.

>the destruction of the japanese pacific holdings
>the fire bombings of major japanese cities
>2 nuclear detonations in major cities
>invasion of Okinawa
>a planned invasion of the home islands
VS.
>destruction of colonial holdings in china and korea.

Right. How is the threat of Soviet aggression worse than the situation that they were in at the time.

It's like worrying of some guy pulling out a gun, when you have already been stabbed 9 times in the heart.

Also, the Soviets never realistically posed a threat to the home islands. They did not have the amphibious capabilities for an attack of that size.

It's funny how some people think the Soviets could have outdone Operation downfall.

It seemed hopeless when the soviets declared war. It was still possible until the last moment that the soviets would protest against the US.

I did not fucking say that the soviets would invade the home islands. Did you even try to understand my point?

But again, their own memos gave up hope about Soviet "protestations" well before the invasion. Unless you have something else to indicate that no, really, they weren't believing Mr Sato, I don't see how your position is tenable.

So, you are not insinuating that the Soviets were a threat to the Home Islands, why would the Japanese surrender? In what world, do you consider the USSR the biggest factor for Japanese surrender, than the US who posed a real threat to the Japanese empire.

Operation Downfall is a meme
You can just starve them out with a blockade and keep bombing them to shit and they'd surrender in 1946, especially after winter of 45/46 kills millions.
A-Bomb was only used so the USA can show USSR who's in charge and to deter them from advancing into Western Europe

It seemed hopeless well fucking before the Soviets advanced. The US was kicking Japan’s ass in every single major pacific battle. The US wasn’t even thinking about the war with Japan anymore by the time they were preparing to drop A-bombs. They were focused entirely on what they were going to do with the Soviets after the Axis finally surrenders.

My theory just seems more plausible to me. There is also the argument that the japanese wanted to surrender to the americans because they would not remove the emperor. If the war had lasted longer then the soviets would have more to say about what happens in post-war japan. Can we at least agree that the ussr played a bigger role than generally accepted.
It's about diplomacy. As i explained earlier, Japan was hoping that tge ussr would influence the us. With the declaration of war these hopes were crushed.

You aren't taking war exhaustion, desertions, and simply the cost of maintaining an embargo for that long.

Not only would the embargo be maintained, Japan would continue to be firebombed during all this time. That means more American air casualties. Many Americans were already pretty upset that after having won in Europe they were now being shipped to Japan to fight there. Some deserted. Kamikaze attacks were picking up too.

What if the Japanese had found some way to hold out? What if political support at home eroded? The War needed to be ended soon. There was a political need to finish it as quickly as possible.

In some world, where people were the government had universal support, and the war economy was sustainable forever, then maybe that would have happened. But it wasn't realistic.

>Can we at least agree that the ussr played a bigger role than generally accepted.
No. The Japanese didn't surrender BECAUSE of the soviet of war. They surrender AFTER the soviet declaration of war.

There is a difference.

The bombings also happened at around the same time. The Japanese were being delusional in expecting the USSR to save the day. They were holding out for every miniscule reason. I don't think that a diplomatic breakthrough with the Russians was expected realistically. They tried sure. But it wasn't realistic.

>They were holding out for every miniscule reason
And the soviet union was a miniscule reason, but that reason was destroyed with the invasion of manchuria.
If the soviets hadn't declared war, the japanese would have held out longer.

>the japanese would have held out longer.
You say this, as if it was a given.
The Soviet declaration of war, and the nuclear bombings happened in the same weak.

What would you consider a much bigger event? For the Japanese, which was of more significance?

In reality, both had an effect on the Japanese surrender obviously. But I'm of the opinion that the bombs would have been enough to break their will to continue fighting.

>Therefore I believe that Stalin feels there is absolutely no necessity for making a voluntary agreement with Japan. On this point I see a serious discrepancy between your view and the actual sate of affairs.
The entire communication from the Japanese ambassador in the USSR to Japan was very disillusioned. He outright tells them, that they are being unrealistic. There was never an effort from the Soviets to pursue this diplomatic path. In the other hand, the nukes were very clear.

>There is also the argument that the japanese wanted to surrender to the americans because they would not remove the emperor.
This one is completely implausible and I really implore you to read these cables. They wanted more than just "don't touch the emperor", they wanted to keep their entire government intact.

>If the war had lasted longer then the soviets would have more to say about what happens in post-war japan.
Why would they play any role without boots on the ground? If the war lasted longer, the more likely consequences are a completely Soviet/Communist Korea, and a bigger presence in China leading to the civil war being won by the CCP faster. It wouldn't really directly affect Japan.

> Can we at least agree that the ussr played a bigger role than generally accepted.
I'm not so sure we can. I certainly am not about to change my position without actual evidence.

This, they also expected to keep korea. The japs really did change. How can a non-retarded person even consider this.

To say that the soviets had a much bigger role than first thought, would require for the Soviets to have actually done something.

The Japanese held out for many reasons. One of them was the delusional hope of Soviet diplomatic assistance. The soviets never did anything to indicate that this was gonna happen. They never did anything.

So, the only role that the soviets had was existing. They never did anything to encourage the japanese to hold out.

I agree that it was somewhat dillusional for the japanese to think that the soviets would support them, but as you yourself said, they were holding out for every miniscule reason.
>In reality, both had an effect on the Japanese surrender obviously
Could we end the discussion on that note?

*delusional

>It was the Russians attacking them that caused the surrender as they realised they couldn't take on both the US and Russia at the same time.
It wasn't about fighting USSR. Japan had the last hope that USSR could be a mediator in peace treaty and hopefully help them get a better deal (for a compensation, obviously). When USSR attacked their last hope went out of the window.