Do you know your math Veeky Forums?

A small digression from all the usual shilling and fudding. Can Veeky Forums solve finmath problmes?

Lets start out with something very basic:

It is Q4 2018, you head a small crypto research team: "calm bitch confidential".
To the surprise of many, Lumen (XLM) is currently trading at $1.2.
According to insider sources, Stellar is bound to announce a permanent partnership with IBM, PayPal and major banks at the next planned event.
Forecast modelling shows you that XLM will reach ATH at $2 in case the new partnership status is confirmed at the next conference.
However, a sell off to $0.8 is expected in case rumours turn out to be bullshit.

Assuming perfect pricing according to future EV, what is the probability (p) of permanent partnership between Stellar, IBM and banks as implied by your model?

Other urls found in this thread:

ehu.eus/aitor/irakas/fin/apuntes/pde.pdf
stacks.math.columbia.edu/tag/02KH
twitter.com/SFWRedditVideos

>probability
>real math
choose one user kek what the fuck is this bullshit. do your whip and ney ney instead you little brainlet bitch

Yes, I do real math, modern Algebraic Geometry, you little bitch.

>probability
>Not match

Nigger detected

What a silly question brainlet.

I'm currently doing shit like this:

ehu.eus/aitor/irakas/fin/apuntes/pde.pdf

Now user, don't be a faggot, I can hardly start with stochastic calculus when you haven't demonstrated any knowledge of the basics yet can I?

The IBM partnership is already inked and done, you fud spreading sack of shit.

Word.

>implying the universe isn't deterministic
it's as if you don't want to understand the true order of things and want to rely on the past to explain the future

you can't model or forecast data about an arbitrary rumor's probability of being true.

garbage in, garbage out

>4016335
>calculus
>linear algebra
>differential equations
>matlab
kek babby tier shit

>Assuming perfect pricing
>Assuming

Doesn't matter if the universe is deterministic or not, you can always create probability models for any given situation

LMAO.
Here's something almost as easy (I'm tutoring)
stacks.math.columbia.edu/tag/02KH

you don't have to be rude

So far, lots of math geniuses but no answer to a very simple math problem... hmmm

Sorry, I just love shit-posting.

>not throwing $10,000's on complete shitcoins that you don't even know what they do

>implying the universe IS deterministic
Someone doesn't know their quantum mechanics

> implying determinism, randomness and probability are exclusive
*ding**ding**ding* brainlet alert

Can't really find p w/o the actual EV. But assuming EV = 0

.8*p1 - .4p2 = 0
.8p1 = .4p2
2p1 = p2
P1 + P2 =1

P1 = .33
P2 = .66

p = 1/3

thats correct anons. You have demonstrated superior brain powers.
Also, since we assume perfect pricing:
2p + 0.8(1 - p) = 1.2

...