S curve

Lol at the delusion

Early adopter phase is long gone and buying bitcoin today is extremely easy.

We're not the innovators.

okay retard

We are right at the convergence of early-late majority. Given the rapid acceleration of these things, we probably have another 2 years before it really gets ugly.

"Late majority" would mean that already over 50% of the world population uses bitcoin. We're not even at 0.5% yet.

I regularly ask other millennials at work and parties and school whether they've heard of bitcoin.

>5/10 have heard of it
>0/10 own any
>0/10 understand how it works even on the most basic conceptual level past "can buy drugs w it"
>1/10 thought about buying it but "missed the boat"

Took 2 months of talking to my parents about it before they were remotely interested in it, now my Dad might "buy a share"

No fucking way.

I'm a pretty intelligent and open minded person (145+ IQ, government paid for my uni till I dropped out) and it took me 3 times being exposed to bitcoin, the concept, and what it means before I started seriously investing.

Y'all think everyone has coinbase on their phone already, literally 2 people I've talked to that actually wanted to buy bitcoin (family members) first thing they asked was "how do I buy it?" And one of them is a computer engineering major/vidya type, tech-savvy (compared to normies) kinda guy.

We are still early, early adopters.

Are you me? Nearly the same situation here.
I regret that I didn't mine that shit back in the old days.

Clif High has analyzed this very question. He says we will move from innovator phase to early adopter phase sometime in early 2018. Then we hit the high slope part on that curve and it is party time in Veeky Forums land!

Clearly you are not very intelligent. If you were you would have bought as soon as you heard of it

You guys don't get it. What percent of individuals own stocks (directly or indirectly)? What percent of individuals own crypto (directly or indirectly)?

Until companies offer 401k via crypto as a standard practice, we're not even close to the late majority. Crypto is either going to die or massivly grow still.

You are retarded if you really think the end of the S curve means 100% of the world use bitcoin. Bitcoin can't even support 1 million users right now. The end of the S curves means 100% of the technologically inclined and speculators use bitcoin, which is a lot less than the world population

Have you seen the ad with Ron Paul for Bitcoin IRA

Yeah. And about half of the world population owns less than 10,000 dollars per capita. (including housing etc. not just savings)
They simply don't have that much spare fiat to buy cryptocurrency.

Can you not read?

You are saying that 70% of all people that will buy Bitcoin have already bought it. Really dude?

The "early majority" is just now starting.

Your analysis has a problem which is scale

The "Target market" is the entire economy of the planet

Your indicated point of the sigmoid curve is over 50%

Current penetration is way under 1%

Hope you didn't sell

I totally have, but the majority of IRAs are managed by businesses for employees, not individuals.

Those advertisements are semi new which is why we're out of innovators and into early adopters. That is, people who do that ARE the early adopters.

Remember: This is an entirely new asset class that isn't even a decade old yet. The last comparable emergence like this was stocks.

Then lets say 10% of the world is technologically inclined or speculators.

We are at 5% adoption.

>claims to have 145+ IQ
>evidence to back up his claims is his own personal experience and polling the 10 people he knows

Still early, early adopter phase. It may not appear that way if you spend all your time on Veeky Forums, but 70% of people haven't even heard of BTC, and maybe 5% of people own any.

Furthermore, 99% of people haven't heard of ARK. That is a sign.

First experience was buying drugs on the internet (steroids, not dumb shit) so I didn't look into it past that.

Second time, bought in but was poorfag and had to pay rent so had to pull out.

This time actually stacked up enough to dump a few grand in. Seeing bittrex for the first time was an eye opening experience. Fucking meme money lmao

Maybe lol

It's funny, knowing and believing are very different things. You can know about bitcoin and what it is but that doesn't necessarily mean you believe in it. Belief is when you know something and it's reinforced in your mind enough that behavior changes, this often takes repetition.

Here lemme cite some peer reviewed journals for you on an malaysian kite flying enthusiast messageboard

If all these basement dwellers ever interacted with people face to face they would realize just how stupid they sound saying things like we're at late majority phase

>tfw made 10 of my friends buy bitcoin by speading the word
Reminder that part of our profit comes from inflating the bubble, do your part to spread the word to normies

99.9999999% haven't heard of ARK.

99% haven't heard of ALTcoins.

I agree with you, but never ever post your IQ again.

This isn't even the late majority of Veeky Forums. Plenty of nocoiners here that will hold crypto in the future.

>The last comparable emergence like this was stocks.
bigly if huge

Actually at the time of the stock market we we're just beginning accounting (seriously, double-entry bookkeeping was cutting edge at the time) and crypto combines the two in unparalleled security and decentralization. Shared and distributed risk/reward with immutable ledgers. Pretty breakthrough shit, but it might still be YEARS before its true potential becomes realized and there will be a lot of hurt feelings along the way.

>tfw crypto market cap is at $286 Billion we will have achieved 1% of all liquid money

>It may not appear that way if you spend all your time on Veeky Forums

True, had to go to /pol/ for a bit because I was beginning to think everyone had cryptos. Although Veeky Forumstards are starting to shit up /pol/ with threads (and vice versa).

I thought it was relevant to the topic

I think it was the Winklevoss twins who said "the people most excited about btc and alts are the smartest people in the room generally" or something like that.

My point is even smart and open-minded people can take a while to realize what we have our hands on here. The brainlets and real dumb money are still years and years away.

I also work in personal finance as my day job so I see how retarded people are with even just fiat investments. 99% of people don't understand normal money, and of that 1% who understand, 90% don't understand crypto.

When the internet was taking off in the early 90's, people thought the whole point was email. No one thought it would be on a device in your pocket in 20 years. Disruptive technologies come with a cornucopia of unintended effects. If this is as big as we think it is, it is actually much bigger in ways that standard models can't predict.

TL;DR don't fucking sell

it might be like 10k people in aglosphere and 10k chinks

We are currently transitioning from innovators to early adopters. If you think otherwise you are deluded.

that doesn't mean shit. bitcoin is officially mainstream today, it doesn't matter if people aren't using it yet. it's squarely out of the innovator stage, we're definitely no earlier than the tail end of early majority.

you have to think logarithmically, a 10x bump today in bitcoin brings is to a 1 trillion market.

ark will be dead before this s curve completes.

that would be great if true, i'll get even richer, but you can't seriously think that a 200 billion market is just now in arly adopter stage? do the math.

Not to derail the thread, but ARK is a promising concept. Blockchains are already awesome, but what they are setting out to do is make blockchains talk to each other.

Can't help but feel like internet caught on sooner. Email was being used by industry much quicker than any blockchain solutions which mostly haven't bared any fruit yet anyway. We know we have something really great here, we just don't know how to utilize it properly.

Probably because the disruption this shit will cause will be exponential when it does gain ground. Right now everything is centralized with regard to organizations, once we get over that hump the world will radically change. People moving in and out of sectors at a whim using their own capital equipment (think mining but applied differently). Things like DAOs imo are the future.

Most people ive talked to keep saying they wont invest in bitcoin because they dont have enough money to buy it.. also the psychological factor of 0.001 vs 50$ we are still early

In the grand scheme of things $200B is nothing really.

200 billion is the marketcap of a megacap publicly traded company

This is a totally different animal. Bitcoin was designed to be a CURRENCY, not just some stock to be traded here and there. A currency with adoption should have a much larger marketcap than any single company. It's like comparing the valuation of a single company to a whole country.

Mike Novogratz says that crypto will be the largest bubble in our lifetimes. Dotcom bubble was 5-6 trillion at its peak. That was 20 years ago. Adjusted for inflation, Dotcom bubble would be 10-12 trillion in today's dollars approximately. We have a long fucking way to go.

"promising" altcoins are a dime a dozen, there's no reason why any of them will get any market traction, apart from 5 or so coins, everything else is relegated to being traded back and forth on exchanges, or sitting in wallets being "staked" ready to (try) and dump them in the future.

in the grand scheme, sure, but you're not thinking logarithmically, the most growth possible was when the market was < 10billion, now, a 10x is definitely possible for bitcoin/ethereum but it's going to take significant capital, and a 100x is going to take a serious white swan.

the s curve is all about multiples, and multiples fall off incredibly quickly. we're definitely not at the point where bitcoin is going to easily 10x, its going to take serious adoption like never seen up until now.

I'm talking about BTC and alts all under the umbrella of crypto.

Sure, alts are getting murdered right now but there are things that certain alts are made to do that BTC can't or won't do well that are made possible by blockchain.

Google was not the first search engine. Facebook was not the first social media platform (and look even with its marketcap and adoption people are leaving for greener pastures on insta and snapchat). BTC is first to market and has that advantage but it's not invincible, even those inside btc seek to dethrone it with these forks.

So I agree with you that it's logarithmic and the biggest gains are in the past with BTC but crypto as a whole is far from done with moon missions.

It's just risk vs reward really

BTC has established some precedent and support, the people who made the most money were some combination of crazy/brave/smart. They had no guarantee that btc would be where it is today and the market rewarded them for the risk.

Same thing we see with alts right now. People in alts are either crazy/brave/smart but there's no certainty that it's going to pay off, and that is what makes for 5x, 10x, and 20x gains.

same

I am not even in the IT at UNI though I have like 6 friends that are in compsci or graduated and working as devs

None of them have btc

they will start to invest en mase at the time bitcoin wont be the buzzword anymore

>Here user, put your life's saving into 40k satoshis

Literally this.

Doing people's investments for work, normies do not understand how to invest. They will literally buy what is shilled to their faces because they're afraid of numbers and math, they get confused about how even mutual funds and stocks work and a confused person does nothing.

In the long term, institutions will buy crypto and then shill it to normies, when normies are fully invested then the bubble will burst and we will be left with the Googles and Amazons of crypto.

>They will literally buy what is shilled to their faces because they're afraid of numbers and math, they get confused about how even mutual funds and stocks work and a confused person does nothing.

As opposed to this board? Do you have any self-awareness at all?

lol not everybody on this board is retard

Great job max

>implying I buy what is shilled on this board without research

nigga that's called projection. Shame you're missing out on KMD because it's no where on this board and it's mooning.

youre misunderstanding what bitcoin is. it isn't a piece of tech like facebook or google, it's a financial instrument, an attempted digital money and gold rolled into one.

you don't "replace" bitcoin without shattering the foundations of what valuable cryptocurrency is supposed to be. if bitcoin falls to some other coin, you can count out any crypto in the financial world, no more store of value, no more digital gold. sure, they'll be other coins with more technological uses, like ethereum's smart contracts, but the financial instrument, the hedge, the store of value, is gone, and the interest in this sector from finance will be gone with it.

1 up for making some sense in this haze