This market gonna crash soon right?

I think me means the principle is the same for the stock market, not the exact numbers
>it actually just corrects itself a bit every 5.3 years
it's 10 years ago almost to the day did you know that?
funny how Veeky Forums is all about the jew but when the jewing is right around the corner we all close our eyes

he said the halvening happens every 4 years, you know what the fucking halvening is... right anons?

how can you say something that happened once happens every 4 years?

there are bear market cycles every 4-5 years on the stock market. there are bear market cycles every day on bitcoin. it's similar but its not the same thing, bitcoin has its own thing going on, it's more unpredictable then the already unpredictable stock market.

basically nobody knows whats going to happen. it's all speculation and there are no hard rules. especially not a hard rule of a halfening every 4 years when its onyl happened once and the regualr stock market doesnt even do this.

Because it is literally designed that way

bitcoinblockhalf.com

how new are you kiddo

I am with you. Time beats timing the market.

However, the problem with these "predictions" is that no situation is EVER the same. Nothing will ever be the same, especially not in financial sectors when people try to predict it. When monkeys see and monkeys do it is also something for other people to recognize as a pattern and they try to take advantage. Basically it is 5D-chess.

You have to distinguish situations and judge every moment from a new perspective. Just because something crashed 3 times at event x it doesn't mean it will again for a 4th time. Why? Because the tiniest random factors change a situation. I literally missed out so many times in the last weeks by "predicting" a pattern. Random coin spiked and dropped every time for the same amount. Was always nice profit, but I didn't take it. Then when I finally try to flip and sell, it never retraces and I miss out.

The big factor at the moment that changes EVERYTHING is endless normie money flowing in because the things went literally mainstream. 4 years ago nobody even thought about investing in some digital online money.

But I am also fearful when everybody is greedy. I will buy when others are fearful again.

> June
It's going to crash soon right?
> July
It's going to crash soon right?
> August
It's going to crash soon right?
> September
It's going to crash soon right?
> October
It's going to crash soon right?
> November
It's going to crash soon right?
> December
It's going to crash soon right?

according to this we are 917 days away from the day when bitcoin value gets halved
>The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, the coin reward will decrease from 12.5 to 6.25 coins.

OH MINING REWARDS i thought he was talking about bitcoin crashing down to half its value every 4 years. but he's just talking about mining rewards? i don't know anything about that. i'll start looking into it within 900 days

Keep in mind crypto is something completely new.

It's not a traditional bubble.

December too

Tax refunds and corporate bonuses cause Normies to buy and inflate prices when?

supply and demand, basic economics
when the mining reward halves
the supply halves
with equal demand this drives the price up
this causes a speculative bubble

around 4 months ago

how long do fucking withdrawals on bitfinex take???
I sent 40 IOTA from one bitfinex acc to another and it's 16 hours already and still processing (can cancel the transaction on the 1st acc and I get them back instanteniously)

ok so, expect a bubble in 900 days. probably buy the dip in july when the bubble corrects itself. thanks for the early warning. usually i find out about something after its happened. i'll probably forget this conversation and get stuck in the bubble anyways, but whatever

well, expect a bubble right now
and another one in exactly 4 years

but the mining rewards being cut in half doesn't happen every 4 years and its not happening now
2020
bitcoinblockhalf.com

it just happened dingus
and yes it DOES happen every 4 years

the exact moment

guess when it halved the time before that?
juli 2012
guess when the next speculative bubble popped? end of 2013

It's not really the supply that halves so much as the inflation rate, if you don't account for fees miner revenue halves too but obviously fees are pretty high right now

Here's why OP is wrong: black swan theory.

The reason rational people continually get JUST'd is because they always process reality as a pattern. It's the same reason so many people with IQ of 110 get sucked into TA while people with IQ of 90 just HODL some shit because they like the logo and moon.

In essence OP doesn't realise is that delusion affects the rational MORE than the irrational, that ultimately he believed bitcoin was going to 100x back when it was 30 dollars then it crashed, now he has a cognitive bias and thinks it will again because 'history', the fact that he says 'this time I will watch from the sidelines' is PRECISELY what makes this time different, failed to anticipate the crash, and now he's failing to anticipate the mooning (BTC hasn't mooned until it hits 1TN market cap).

See here for more:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

tl;dr there's a reason they say 'always do the opposite of what Veeky Forums says', and right now most of Veeky Forums is anticipating a crash. "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" -Keynes

>Monty Python denial

I overheard 3(!) normie colleagues talk about altcoins today, in separate conversations. The bubble's popping soon man

This was actually meant in response to

Also to I say this: I agree that when the market is greedy then it's time to get out, but you have to understand who 'the market' is in question, we aren't targeting civilians anymore, the civilians got greedy when MtGox happened, the real next push for BTC will be large scale bank adoption, now ask yourself: do most banks seem fearful/against BTC or recklessly investing in BTC? A simple look at the marketcap suggests less than 0.1% of bank money is invested in BTC right now. The next bubble crash will happen when bitcoins are treated as 'safe' an investment as real estate in 2007. When you walk into a bank and the bank teller tries to CONVINCE you to put money into BTC, when the secretary of the treasury of the US proposes a budgetary plan to hold a BTC. Impossible to imagine now, but so were smartphones in 1998, so was 10K BTC, etc etc. No man can stand against the winds of change.

This is exactly why nolinkies are going to get btfo

>Monty Python denial
* Listen for the Monty Python denial. There's a great scene in the hilarious movie "Monty Python's Life of Brian" when villagers surround the everyman/protagonist Brian and insist that he's a prophet, because "only a true prophet would deny he's a prophet."

In other words, when the majority of pundits insist that "this time is different," or we're in a "new economy," that's when you should be most cautious and reduce your stock positions.

Right, so you agree with me right? Because most pundits right now are saying bitcoin WILL crash.

Based on the institutions or the normie? The normie isn't going to crash it, they don't know how

no, what I see is most people on Veeky Forums right now think it's going to 100,000 over night

most of /biz are newcoiners now, it got really noticeable around may, we had a couple bloodbaths but relatively short lived and even more quickly forgotten with the moons that followed..

I don't know what happens if we get one of those with the normies in, but I don't even see how we would, they're completely oblivious to anything except buying and driving the price up and there is basically an unlimited supply of them

We must be looking at different Veeky Forums, I genuine see a 10:1 ratio of 'its gonna crash'.

yeah it was totally not like that when bitcoin broke $1,000. come on man listen to yourself
if you think 10k is a bigger barrier than 1k and there were no massive amounts of normies moving in back then, well I'm sorry I was there when it hit my local newsstation that bitcoin broke 1k.
I did a little dance in front of my parents that "we had made it"

it's went up almost $4k in ten days.

maybe its just biz

priced in

its gonna go poof and you'll all cry, at least dont end your life when it happens

The idiots think this is tullip mania where you have to walk over to your cuck bank and buy a paper that says you own a tullip.

EVERY
PERSON
ON
EARTH
WITH
A
SMART
PHONE
WILL
BUY
CRYPTO

let's say for 100$?

Yeah. Do the math.

thats why the mania is so big...

early adopter

It’s not a crash, it’s a recession :^)

>we're taking crypto advice from kiddos who have never heard of the halvening
The absolute state of Veeky Forums

>The next bubble crash will happen when bitcoins are treated as 'safe' an investment as real estate in 2007
pm this

more like early sucker