B-but GW is going to die any day now

>b-but GW is going to die any day now..
>Right? Right?
telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/26/questor-share-tip-buy-games-workshop-as-company-leverages-fantas/

>You need to subscribe to read this article

That's weird. I got the link from /aosg/ and i definitely am not subbed.

Ill copypasta it here:

Questor share tip: Buy Games Workshop as company leverages fantasy brands
Peter Spence
26 July 2016 • 7:09pm

Games Workshop

465¼p +9¼p

Questor says BUY

Investors looking for an attractive yield and a company well placed to benefit from the pound’s steep falls could do worse than Games Workshop, a business that Questor feels has been overlooked.
Cheap and cheerful

After a troubling end to 2015, revenues at the tabletop games maker have recovered, and the stock appears reasonably cheap, at a price-to-earnings multiple at just 11.2. Coupled with strong cash generation and healthy overseas sales, Games Workshop is an enticing, if risky play.

The company has pumped out figurines to a hardcore audience since its formation in the 1970s, providing the parts for customers to assemble and paint their own armies. Yet despite the high-tech alternatives now available, the firm’s fans have remained loyal.

Valued at just £150m, the company receives scant analyst coverage. Only house broker Peel Hunt currently holds a rating on the stock. Its “Buy” recommendation was reiterated after Games Workshop’s annual results on Tuesday, citing their expectation for a chunky 7.5pc dividend yield over the next two years.

Brexit boon

Recent falls in the pound will make the Nottingham-based company more competitive, as it makes 72pc of its sales overseas and has a domestically focused cost base. A weaker pound could boost profits beyond the expectation-busting £16.9m achieved in the year to May 29.

Games Workshop said that it is particularly sensitive to the US dollar, against which sterling has dropped 10.9pc since the start of the year, and also the euro, compared with which the pound is 11.8pc cheaper over the same period.

cont.

Right royal revenues

Management has combated the perennial threat of video games over the years. Yet warnings that fans of Games Workshop’s wares would turn to digital rivals have so far failed to materialise.

Rather, the company appears to be making good progress in selling its intellectual property to video game developers, boosting royalty income from £1.5m to £5.9m in its most recent results.

Tom Kirby, Games Workshop’s chairman, and its former chief executive, stressed that the company was not selling out on its well-established brand by working with third-parties.

He said: “It’s just that working closely with the myriad app developers, and being more precise with the terms we offer, we have increased the number of computer games in the market.”

However, this revenue stream will inevitably involve a certain lumpiness. Buyers should be aware that this could mean future income statements could bounce around, and in turn, result in volatile price action for this stock.

Charles Hall, a Peel Hunt analyst, said that royalty income should nonetheless “be significantly higher than in recent years”, and predicts a £3m contribution in future years, with “plenty to look forward to” in the pipeline.

cont.

>To overcome these hurdles, management must be careful not to get stuck in a fantasy world of their own.

Longer-term fantasy

The most troubling element of Games Workshop’s most recent update is its attack on the benefits of management diversity. Mr Kirby said in this year’s statement that to “imply that someone is not independent minded because of time served... or whatever else is false”.

Questor fears that this kind of attitude does not lend itself to bringing in new thinking. A promise from Mr Kirby that the company’s next chiefs will be internal hires, with at least a decade inside the firm, suggests that there is a risk of groupthink in the company.

The chairman’s comments came as Games Workshop grapples with a secular threat. The business is reliant on a generation of loyalists, who, as they have aged, have been able to absorb increasing prices. They will not be around forever.

The challenge will be to recruit a new wave of younger, less affluent consumers, when the average sticker price of Games Workshop products has risen by around 3pc in the last year, according to the company’s own figures.

To overcome these hurdles, management must be careful not to get stuck in a fantasy world of their own. Yet, for now, Questor thinks that the stock has further to go. Buy.

end.

So does this mean cheaper models?

we are starting to see cheaper models already, sort of. Individual kits are still expensive, but they have been doing some deals lately, like start collecting and getting started boxes.

Will kits get cheaper? Who knows, but GW is actually going in the right direction with community interaction and the generals handbook is a boon for AoS that is pretty lauded as great from fans and people on the fence about the game. If you are someone who has nothing but contempt for it, it will likely not change your mind.

>boosting royalty income from £1.5m to £5.9m in its most recent results.
I.e Total War: Warhammer saves the day.

Saved by the very setting they threw under a bus.

Sounds about right for GW.

No, on the contrary. It means that they'll get more pounds per sales as the pound devaluates.

But at least it's a company that's both established and actually selling physical products for a change.

It never means cheaper models.

the starter boxes are as cheap or cheaper then they where 15 years ago

One can dream

What about the model per starter box count tho?

This.
GW has proven if you don't take the starter box discount, you will get hosed on the individual box price (see B@C).
In a sense though, that's all they care about. They will make the starter sets a "steal!!!!' (Not really, company still makes huge profits from each, this company does NOTHING at a loss). Little Timmy has mommy buy it. 90% little Timmy's leave, but that 10% who stay after will be buying at the RIDICULOUS normal price. GW wins.

>buying up a company that is a few months away from losing the european customer base
Nice "analysis".

the same

Which is exactly the reason I won't buy GW stock.
40k was reinvigorated by Dawn of War. GW knew what power a good videogame had.
And then they moved ahead and axed WHFB months before a giant WHFB game came on the market.

Not to mention that them "closely" working with developers resulted in about a thousand shitty phone games, which, if they continue like that, will eventually kill the brand as a video gaming brand.

On one hand, they have good ideas, like Total Warhammer or just in general more Warhammer videogames, and on the other they inevitably shit them up somehow.

You buy stocks when you feel it's cheap and has the propensity to rise.

So they are saying that the stocks are definitely cheap and at a potential low for GW.

And they are taking a wild guess that the stock value will rise.

No guarantees either way, but it does imply that their stocks are cheap enough to mitigate potential risk of loss.

Specific financial advice is always bad.

If they really believed GW was a good buy, they'd have snapped it up themselves. They have not snapped it up themselves, ergo...

>No, on the contrary. It means that they'll get more pounds per sales as the pound devaluates.

More likely, they will keep the price steady in pounds, resulting in greater sales as the price in €/$ falls.

Yes yes I know, GW and falling prices are never to be mentioned in the same paragraph, but this is a classic way of growing business without experiencing a drop in revenue and many companies do this to great effect.

>The business is reliant on a generation of loyalists, who, as they have aged, have been able to absorb increasing prices. They will not be around forever.
That's not how it works at all.

This would assume that they are in a market that has actual growth potential, which I think they've demonstrated as not being the case in recent years.

>This would assume that they are in a market that has actual growth potential, which I think they've demonstrated as not being the case in recent years.

Every day new kids are born who have not played Warhammer yet. They might capture a bigger % of this years crop of the price is lower.

Wouldnt a weak pound compared to the dollar massively benefit GW as most of their customer base is in america?

>Wouldnt a weak pound compared to the dollar massively benefit GW as most of their customer base is in america?

That's what he said.

If you're new here, the simpering tone of voice conveyed in the green text is not his argument, it is supposed to be a satire of his arguments detractors.

This is because he is an idiot, much like most other people who post here.

Why are you stating the obvious?

>Why are you stating the obvious?

>If you're new here,

>a few months away from losing the european customer base
My god, you're such a retard.

They aren't 'a few months away' from losing their european customer base, because brexit will have no significant impact on trade, because people who want to buy commodities may still do so, unless europe decides to declare war on a nuclear power and embargo British goods entirely.

Which would be a strange move.

Even if Brexit were to cut off their european customer base in this strange, apocalyptic future you predict, they aren't a 'few months away' because even after article 50 is triggered it may take years to actually complete the process of leaving.

Dumbass.

Yeah all of the 5 new people who come on this board every year

They didn't throw it under the bus, they freed Fantasy to fulfill its true potential in videogames (TW, Vermintide etc.)

The stock still pays a good dividend, which makes it an attractive option at a low price. Buy low sell high isn't the only factor in building a portfolio.

Most of their customer base is in the UK

Does that necessitate killing the setting on the tabletop and in fluff?

No, GW did that because Fantasy wasn't making any more money than it was before a full year of giving it frontline billing for new armies and models, and because GW has gotten so used to spitting in the faces of their long term customer base that they didn't see anything wrong with killing the setting that literally made their company.

Are you ignorant, retarded, or trolling?

Some AoS retard on Veeky Forums misunderstands, and completely misses the implications of an article he linked - in attempt to show us all how great Age of Sigmar and GW are.

I love it.

Do enlighten us. Seriously, I'm not being snarky, tell us the conclusions you draw from it.

Yes, please do tell what we are missing.

That's like saying you murdered someone to fulfill their true potential as a ghost.

Yeah, they might be the fucking best ghost ever, but you're still a dick

>colossal failure
inb4 "its only because of the 9th age sales" or "the report is lying"

Are you working for the EU in the trade department ? Because as far as the UK is concerned, right now it will have less access to the Common market of the EU than the US.

Maybe, if they agree to still follow Brussel's rules and pay a bigger sum than they had to do before leaving, they will have a Norway-tier limited access to it.

>Warhammer has enjoyed for several years
Yeah sure, the sales were horrible during 7th edition and 8th edition. Because they were absolute shit. Before that WHFB was a bigger market than 40k.

So yeah, AoS sells better than absolute shit. It's still shit tho.

>So yeah, AoS sells better than absolute shit.
Fact.
>It's still shit tho.
Opinion.

Know the difference.

To be fair, they're making attempts to do this by pumping out board games and the Start Collecting sets.

Arguably doing so with their approach to AoS where you can buy the rules that interest you from the battletomes piecemeal from the app.

Apparently for clampacks they were trying out a lower price with the Branchwych. Though how that compares in size to the Stormcast, Bloodbound, or Ironjawz I'm not sure.

Except there is no real evidence that Total Warhammer would have reignited Fantasy sales, it was always and I suppose continues to be a last gasp of delusion.

Why would someone pay for the actual models when they've already paid $60 for a satisfying game that is getting free additions, has mods, and two confirmed expansions?

Fantasy players still acting like this is the 1980s and they're going to turn video game into one of them with a game that is expensive and that requires you actually put some work in to play.

Pretty sure in one of their recent reports they stated that a significant amount of their sales came from outside of the UK.

>Except there is no real evidence that Total Warhammer would have reignited Fantasy sales, it was always and I suppose continues to be a last gasp of delusion.
>Why would someone pay for the actual models when they've already paid $60 for a satisfying game that is getting free additions, has mods, and two confirmed expansions?
>Fantasy players still acting like this is the 1980s and they're going to turn video game into one of them with a game that is expensive and that requires you actually put some work in to play.
This whole thing here is truth. The fags like to cite the influx of 40k players due to DoW, but I doubt that would have altered anything for whfb's playerbase. You also have to think, that for every player that started 40k because of DoW, there were about 100 who were just content playing the PC game. I imagine the ratio would have been even less significant for TWWH. Also keep in mind, a lot of TWWH's success comes from people who just play the total war games. The players are not all entirely warhammer fans.

I loved the old world, but the game became pretty shit. I am glad that it lives on in vidya and was replaced by [opinion]a better fantasy tabletop game[/opinion].

>thread made with news or evidence that speaks the doom of GW
>guaranteed replies to autosage

>thread made with news that shows good news for the company
>thread barely survives

Man, I can't afford models, let alone shares.

So, I've had a chance to read the report I actually have shares in GW. Usual waffle, not overly enlightening. The thing that I think is most noteworthy, and that backs up something I've long thought, is the profits in different channels of business:

>trade = £10625000 = 24% profit margin
>retail = -£3410000 = 7% loss margin
>mail order = £13747000 = 55% profit margin

Retail, if you hadn't guessed, is the stores. They're losing the company money, running them eats a good £35000000, nearly a third of the company's income. If they disappeared tomorrow (and all of their sales disappeared too), they'd be making more like £20000000 pre-tax profit on £70000000 of revenue, a healthy 28.5%, instead of the 14.3% they make at the minute. The stores are also a heavy cost and difficult to downsize if there's a slowdown, and it's not as though the sales would vanish alongside them too. It ought to be clear to GW that the areas to target growth and profits are in trade and mail order, but their strategy is based around opening more stores, when they should actually be closing them down.

Though it wouldn't be a direct trade off.

They would have to put some of that money "saved" from closing the stores down into advertising and perhaps propping up "official GW wargame clubs" in towns.

Of course that would still be nothing like as expensive as the stores themselves.

>Of course that would still be nothing like as expensive as the stores themselves

Nothing could be as wasteful as running all those stores in the internet age. Greater investment in marketing would probably boost sales in the existing trade and mail order sectors as well. Plus, it's not as if they would lose all of the sales from the stores, a lot of them would migrate to the other channels. It's frustrating because traditional gaming is a rapidly expanding sector, and GW aren't even standing still, they're losing market share in a big way.

Considering AoS is this huge success story for the company, will there be Age of Emperor?

Chances are they're loathe to ditch the thing that gave them their original advantage.

Got to wonder if they floated the idea around before deciding to go with the one-man store bullshit.

"risk of groupthink"

Is that a buzzword meaning "knowing the product and market"?

It's already here.
Look up Battle for Vedros.

It means management might get into a massive circlejerk over how great their ideas are, independent from reality.

Does AoS rules have any benefits over 40k?

40k or BfV?

I'd agree, but a business model that delivered growth in the 1990s and early 2000s is not guaranteed to deliver growth in 2016.

Groupthink is what's exemplified in their sticking to Kirby's store-based model in the face of all the evidence that they ought to ditch it. It's the danger that comes from what they point out elsewhere in their report - that staff are expected to have been with the company for a good decade at least before they're considered for senior roles or board positions. It means that they're all wedded to the mistakes of the past.

I naively thought BfV and AoS could be lumped together as one.

If the alrernative is having former shoe-salesmen and mass-produced business majors running the show...

Naw BfV is even dumber.
Aimed at 8-12 yo.

>former shoe-salesmen and mass-produced business majors running the show...

At least these guys might understand how to run a company and realise that its more advantageous to milk fans rather than shit on them while insisting they know best.

Wasn't that how they got Kirby?

"We just want to make games and figures, so lets get an accounting nerd to do the numbers"

That leads to "lower the bar to sell the most stuff to the most people, cut all specialist goods from main line move them to the bespoke section and double the price"

>lower the bar to sell the most stuff to the most people, cut all specialist goods from main line move them to the bespoke section and double the price

Isn't that literally what GW has been doing for over a decade now?

Yes, and now they've gotten Kirby to fuck off they're in the process of undoing most of it - they want a lower bar of entry though

>being this obtuse

It's not even about that, it's about having people who are willing to challenge orthodoxy and come up with new ideas. By all accounts Kirby ran things from the top and was only interested in yes men, which led to the departure of lots of the staff who made GW what it is. Rountree is making definite improvements to the company's approach, but he still came up under Kirby and is emotionally invested in the current set-up. The challenge is not to bring in business majors just for the sake of it, or to introduce diversity quotas (something that institutional investors have been bothering them about and that they shit all over in the report, some of the opening couple of pages is redpilled as all fuck), but to make sure that the company is constantly interrogating everything it does and questioning whether they could be doing it better. That's difficult to do if you have a culture of compliance and you only promote internally.

>Yet despite the high-tech alternatives now available, the firm’s fans have remained loyal.

all you need to know about the article.

It's exactly this kind of blind fixation on the raw numbers that's killing GW. Cutting a loss making area sounds good, but customers don't model their behaviour on the laws of accountancy. Do you know what actually happens when stores close? Players have no place to play. Sometimes decent clubs will form, but a lot of the time they won't, or they'll come and go as the people running them move onto different things. And this has a ripple effect throughout the area, as even people who don't go to the store to play will be affected if the player base around them collapses. GW benefits hugely from having a dedicated person who's actually employed to keep their player base, well, playing. The amount of product sold directly by the stores is secondary to the number of existing customers they keep playing, and new players they bring into the hobby. New players generally come along because they have a friend who's already playing. Fewer old players means fewer new customers.

Of course, GW has decided to have the worst of both worlds by having one-man stores. I think there's still some value to a physical presence in town centres and shopping malls - even in the digital age it shouldn't be underestimated - but it should be pretty clear that GW bricks-and-mortar should be treated as club-houses first and stores second, and monetising secondary products like snacks is the way to make them profitable. Hell, you could even turn them into bars and restaurants. Put a buffet next to your average wargamer and you'll make a fortune.

>there is no real evidence that Total Warhammer would have reignited Fantasy sales
well this the dumbest thing I'm going to read this week. Of course TW:Warhammer would have boosted Fantasy's sales. It's like asking 'do you think the Star Wars movie will boost plastic lightsabre sales?'. DoW certainly boosted 40k sales, and 40k had a higher profile to begin with and less to gain from advertising. Even if only one in a hundred people take up the tabletop that's still potentially tens of thousands of new players. There's every reason to think that Fantasy would have received a huge boost in sales. It's almost inconceivable that it wouldn't

>Why would someone pay for the actual models when they've already paid $60 for a satisfying game that is getting free additions, has mods, and two confirmed expansions?
I don't know? Why would someone pay for a $10 toy BB8 when they've already spent $8 to see the Force Awakens?

>ecause as far as the UK is concerned, right now it will have less access to the Common market of the EU than the US.
Mate, not being part of the 'common market' just means a tariff will be imposed upon goods from offshore, which makes them more expensive for the consumer, barring the aforementioned war and corresponding embargo.

But 'unreasonably high prices' have been shown not to deter GW's core market.

Britain will do better out of the common market. There is literally no reason to join it if the costs are prohibitive.