Bubble Discussion

let's talk about both sides of this

what are your indicators of why it will / won't crash in 2018?

will crash

>every time we've seen Bitcoin grow this quickly, there's been a severe correction

>all the people just buying in now will have weak hands
(FOMO buying, no confidence in technology therefore quick to panic sell)

>constant media FUD will wear down people's confidence even more

won't crash (at all / for long)

>there's wide media coverage but adoption is still very low

>with impending upgrades incoming
>it'll be more attractive overall as a currency / store of value
(segwit / LN / atomic swaps / etc)

>crypto history shows how confident people are in the technology
>even after significant blows
(if people can be bothered to look back)

>even if it does correct, it'll recover quickly because of economies with shitty fiat currencies
(depending on size of crash / economies at the time)

interested in counter arguments to any of those points

I'm a huge believer in BTC/crypto technology in general
but I'm expecting a big pop in the next 6 months

I do believe it'll certainly recover though,
and reach many new ATHs

youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg

Other urls found in this thread:

medium.com/@dennyk/why-and-how-the-cryptobubble-will-burst-de9bc7fc5332
twitter.com/NSFWRedditGif

for the people not caught up with the history

many people doubted BTC could ever reach parity with the USD

the pre-Gox crash

dunno much about it so can't comment

Good post OP.

you've probably already seen this article from your research but it lays everything out better than we shitposters can
medium.com/@dennyk/why-and-how-the-cryptobubble-will-burst-de9bc7fc5332

personally, im prepared for a big dip coming and logically it should, but i don't think im going to try and time it.
My only preparation is I've stopped trading shitcoins and just moved everything into Eth and Omg, as long as you're in coins that have will have real world usage and non-vapor economics in 2018 you'll be good
i'd highly advise against keeping coins on exchange and setting stop losses, a flash crash could fuck you before being gobbled back up to previous levels within days.

We're at an artificial price because of all the btc runs started with tethers and all bear run have been stopped by tether.
We should be well below 10k

Whatever normies see as a crash will only be a dip in my eyes.
TOO BIG TO FAIL NIGGA

Gox crash

took 4 years to get back to $1200 again

One difference between bitcoin and those bubbles is the number of people involved. Bitcoin has a much larger user base than all of those. I think it could go much much higher before busting.

Look for bearish divergences between price and indicators on timeframes from 1 hour or more.

I think that black swan event was so catastrophic in the long term because the market was immature
With so many more players, bigger money and more interest now I highly doubt a recovery would take too long at all
2 cents

kek I made an ass load of money and coins during those 4 years. Bear markets are best markets

no I haven't read it, but I will
thanks

>as long as you're in coins that have will have real world usage and non-vapor economics

i don't think any crypto is safe if a big bust happens,
crashes in altcoins have happened for much less

best to have 10% in crypto in case it recovers and moons,
but keep the rest to buy in cheap

>advise against keeping coins on exchange

yeah gotta have that cold storage

how exactly bearfag?

but how are tether pumps different from just buying with USD?

>took 4 years to get back to $1200 again

yes, and now the cryptomarket is 1000x bigger

its pretty much the only event that can stop crypto, the closing of fiat gateways.
back then mt gox held a huge proportion of the mkt cap, the equivanlent today would be a chain on exchanges folding at the same time.
its possible, but not too likely

how can you time the best time to buy though?

a lot of people probably bought at $500 after gox thinking they were about to double their money

>buy low
>Sell high
>Repeat
Swings are swings, relative indicators will reflect those swings. In addition the emotional weakness of hodlers and newbs in the market is a great opportunity. They are more willing to sell during slight corrections and fomoing during small bull runs.

Because we have nothing but bitfinex' word on that they're actually pegged by the dollar.
They printed 100 million just today just when the pump started, are you going to believe that?

true, but why does the size of the market necessarily stop it from popping?
and we're still at very low adoption at the moment

I'd say the number of people who own a decent amount of crypto
is comparable to the number of people involved in those stock crashes
(not including people with like $10-100 in Bitcoin, their actions won't influence the markets so shouldnt be counted IMO)

i dunno, feel like bear markets are filled with smarter money whilst the newbs i trade against currently sit it out. id get roasted probably

you have to look at the difference between "outside" money and "inside" money.
as long as people have "outside" money to buy the dip, they dip is gonna get bought

The market can't react fast enough to a crash for it to actually crash very quickly.

Average norm isn't going to react instantly to a crash and change his buys or sells. It would take coordinated whale effort to crash Bitcoin but it's very much in their interest to keep it growing. How can you cash out several hundred thousand bitcoins unless the market is buying them over a long period?

Bitcoin won't crash until after the whales have cashed out and the norms have completed filled their bags.

Gains are gains, you just can't be greedy because it will ruin you in a bear market while during the bull run you just lose some potential profit. And yes, lot of really smart money, Personally I got nearly burned when it broke 300 and I expected a leg up. Good for me, the buy pressure at 200 was uber bullish

yeah I need to learn more about recognizing signals from graphs

I hope so,
planning to buy more but worried about overspending when i could just buy cheap

yeah but most large investors don't want their money down by 50-80% for almost 3-4 years

A log graph historical shows that a 30%-40% dip occurs regularly and would be a good time to to buy back. Given the size of the markets, the market penetration rate, support from futures and merchants, Id say much less than this or the times of Gox now.

lol I know this chick personally.

...

well Bitfinex can always buy Tether from themselves
and looking at their transparency page, seems to add up mostly

considering no other crypto is backed by anything,
doesn't seem like a major issue to me

how?

at the peak of that bubble,
AMZN was worth $107

at the floor of the crash it was ~$7

that's 10x gains (and a very stressful 10 years)

vs 169x gains

damn that's some pretty fucking long bag holding

that means it will take 1000x longer when it crashes

do you know how many people are on the sidelines waiting/hoping for a crash?

stop thinking in bitcoin and start thinking in blockchain
it's a technology and just starting to get adobted
we still haven't left earths orbit

>literally suggesting a btc crash will take 4000 years to recover

normies are here

Fuck buttcoin and its open ledger.
doesn't mean you can't make fiat and raise your good coin hodlings

In the 90s you would have had to have picked one of the literal handful of winning tech stocks in a sea of hundreds losers who went under. Amazon was not obvious -- it had never turned a profit -- if its biggest investors had jumped ship in the crash then it would have sunk (ie it needed salespeople to convince its shareholders that it was worth keeping alive -- you can't predict a company will have that based on their success in the marketplace). Then you would have had to have the confidence that in that 10 year wait, their growth, which barely kept up with inflation, made them worth holding on to instead of jumping ship to, say, biotech. Then you had to clench your shirt tightly that Amazon would climb back to get your money back without Chinese companies like baidu making inroads into the US -- still a possibility.

All in all, the winning investors in the tech boom were few and far between, even if they got in early and knew the industry well.

grew up in the same town.