Futures Trader person again

who are the market makers for bitcoin? like what are the various demographics that drive its price. does trading on bitfinex determine bitcoin's price for the west? i really don't understand who "they" are when i try to understand where bitcoin is headed.

It will pick up more if bitcoin doesn't crash. Most brokers do not allow bitcoin futures trading at the moment.

The dreaded duck... 1st most dreaded only to the kangaroo eating spaghetti.

Directional accuracy?

Yes??????

If this last rise after the dip was in fact a bulltrap before we go down to support at 8k, do you think the fact futures exist now had a big influence on the bubble popping?

Are we still in bull market or is it time to call it an overall bear market?

Do Future traders look into tech issues such as the fact that BTC is basically unusable at the moment at all?

I would wait until the new year to see what happens, a lot of investing businesses are waiting to cash out so they have profit on next years books, maybe will see another dip.

It makes life a lot more cozy if you start out the year with some degree of your goal in the bag... + too much profit/tax in one year could be inefficient. Make sense?

From what I understand the volume in Asian markets is higher than the western world, so I assume them. There are some funds here that hold bitcoin. Trading on any exchange to some degree affects the price on any other exchange. If you can get BTC for 20k on one exchange and 15k on another exchange you may as well go buy it where it's cheaper. The concept is called arbitrage and it usually doesn't exist too much because people automatically even out the differences like that.

There is a big misconception that there is a singular "they." There are ways certain types of people think, but even within the investing world people disagree on direction all the time.

Right now bitcoin is in a middle ground, trading sideways. This is where most newbies get burned because they keep thinking it will break out of this small trading range, but it doesn't... so they sell at the bottom and buy at the top. Learn to trade the range after big moves, sometimes things trade sideways for weeks. If a daily, or maybe a strong four hourly candle CLOSES outside of the range, then that is probably the direction. Industry standard at that point is to set your stop at the opposite end of the previous sideways range. Read "the logical trader" by fischer, short book, widely known though and it goes over trading ranges.

If you had to ballpark it, how long until there are futures for BCH/ETH/LTC?

The bookkeeping and other work to set them up should be a lot of copypasta, right?

It is not necessarily a bull trap, but a period of sideways trading during the holiday where there is neither an influx of capital, or desire by traders to break into a new range, or trend.

Look how it's bouncing between 12k-12.5 and 16k. Arbitrarily trade that range while you can and wait for the breakout. We normally measure trading ranges and stack them on top of each other, so say this is a 4k trading range, if it breaks 12, assume maybe 8k? 8.5k? 8.5k is sitting on a trend line, which is convenient.

>Pardon my use of TV

right. according to a recent cointelegraph article, "japan has once again become the largest Bitcoin exchange market with 50.75 percent market share of the global Bitcoin exchange market". supposedly that's partly due to traders from china. i don't understand what their trading strategies are or how much of that action is individual investors or funds. apparently arbitrage is difficult to do on bithumb, for example, because there's a 10 day or so waiting period for transfers. i've noticed bitcoin and ethereum prices are substantially higher on asian exchanges and it doesn't seem like many people are able to take advantage of that. so the "they" who make the crypto markets for the west are different from those who make the asian market. i'm mostly curious how much of the market is driven by managed money versus individual investors and how much "normal" people affect the market. how would you describe a "normal" person who's invested in crypto? thanks for the book/strat rec, i'll check it out.

Good thread OP. Thanks

It worked with gold because no one wants to take physical delivery, but most people want to take delivery of their btc.

Knowing this, how can the reigning in of gold via paper futures be an accurate comparison to btc?

I can't comment on whether or not the traders think that the tech is useful. Normal forex is infinitely more useful than bitcoin is and already fulfills everything bitcoin could hope to be.

In terms of blockchain, I don't think that owning a bitcoin necessarily entitles you to the technology in the same way that owning a share of Tesla entitles you to the patented car technology they have.

I think 95+% of people talking about bitcoin don't really understand coding, so it is unnecessary for us to talk about it.

I would say it is still in a bull market though, but not by much.

A rather long time, if never. Bitcoin is what, ten years old? It also depends on if this whole bitcoin thing implodes, or not. If they wanted to they can create a new future/ETF for anything pretty quick. I know someone made an ETF tracking Chinese markets named "CHAD"... guy who created it was probably a frat bro named Chad

>I think 95+% of people talking about bitcoin don't really understand coding, so it is unnecessary for us to talk about it.
So you think future traders really dont concern themselves with the tech all that much?
Thats crazy. Myself im a developer and have been trading crypto on the side since before the 2013 bubble and right now is the first time I think the tech behind BTC might be up for close to catastrophic failure if the BCH rivalry continues and we see a point where hashrate migrates en masse. Bitcoins DAA cannot handle that which means no blocks may be found at all for hours.

So I bought eth around this current price. I could sell and break even, wait for further drop. Or just hold.

Thoughts?

There is no delivery using the BTC future, all cash settled.

There is a 10 day waiting period reducing possible arbitrage opportunities FOR YOU. There is nothing stopping the owners of these exchanges from privately trading the arbitrage in an efficient manner. I would be shocked if they aren't.

All over the world in real regulated markets people are creating dozens of new exchanges for the very purpose of creating discrepancies between exchange pricing to trade the difference. That's what high frequency trading was created to do.

Notice the NYSE isn't the only exchange out there anymore. The farther away they are the better as well, takes more time for data to be sent. HFT have fiber optic cables that work at 2/3 the speed of light, it's pretty cool. These guys even then freak out if they're 3 feet farther away from an exchange terminal. "Flash boys" is a good book about that if you're interested.

In a normal asset the amount of managed money positions, vs other, will be published publicly. I do not think they have to do this with crypto, but I bet you could get an estimate somwhere.

Normal people do affect markets because inexperienced traders react to stimuli in the same manner, it is in that way that a mob of "retail" traders can act like a hedge fund, or single block of money, without realizing it.

The only thing managed money can do is figure out where they can manipulate the average trader emotionally into betting the same direction as them.

Say everyone starts buying bitcoin tomorrow and managed money doesn't have enough capital to keep the markets from rising... Maybe they know that if you just dump bitcoin 50+% in a week then everyone will assume it's a dip and just buy more. DESU if I were trying to ruin bitcoin, I would just make it trade sideways for six months, not allowing it to break 20k and eventually people will let the hype die down and it will consume itself.

eth futures are supposed to be coming within months if not weeks

>I think 95+% of people talking about bitcoin don't really understand coding, so it is unnecessary for us to talk about it.
>I would say it is still in a bull market though, but not by much.
and that's exactly how you god damn morons crash anything to a fucking halt. You're literally worse than all the fake news journalists that also don't understand jack shit.
P.S. The problems with bitcoin are so severe that it will crash and burn faster than you can say FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

thanks man you've given me a lot to think about.

When btc was roughly 8k on coin base, it was trading for 13.5k in financially fucked Zimbabwe. How can the futures market control the international price if this keeps happening?

Also if btc stagnates like gold did, we'll all move onto another coin to gamble with, and ton coin* coming out next year to an already ~200 million user base - how can btc futures stay relevant?

*telegram messaging app is coming out with a crypto called ton

I think some concern themselves quite a lot with the tech, but many may just have a cursory knowledge of what's going on. People usually pick low hanging fruit and get just enough information to make the wrong decision. It's better to know nothing, or know everything.

People ask right now if it's a bull or a new bear trend, but honestly it could look like either in the middle unless you really know what's going on. If these guys are good at trading they'll get like 2/3 of the move anyway even if they're wrong about fundamentals, that's the point.

If what you're saying about the hashes is true, that's pretty fascinating. I say that only understanding half of what you said :D BCH rivalry is the rivalry between coins, or exchanges, or some part of the blockchain code?

Looks like it's in the middle of a range right now like the others, pretty bland place to enter. Wouldn't be surprised to see another dip first couple days of 2018, but wouldn't be surprised if it edged up until then either. Could test top of range at 750- surprising if it broke that. You should know though that I don't trade crypto.

:D

Futures do not affect the price of bitcoin, there is no bitcoin involved in the trading of a future at any point. The exchange called a new asset bitcoin though and when it tanked the real bitcoin followed, which was actually pretty funny.

I think some of the point, if you were a conspiracy theorist, is that bitcoin is the foundation of the market. All of the other coin creators just cash out and leave like Litecoin, or partially like ETH. Nobody wants to invest in people like that so if bitcoin dies out, then maybe the general trend will too. However, I'm not one for malicious conspiracies.

I will also add that a test of one side of a range, or diagonal trend channel implies a test of the opposite end of the range. 600 just tested, so top of range 750 implied.

:D :D :D

>BCH rivalry is the rivalry between coins, or exchanges, or some part of the blockchain code?
BCH being the forked "Bitcoin Cash" that tries to solve issues with fees and transaction speed.

Do you dare?

pornhub.com/view_video.php?viewkey=ph58765de68a63d

Would you then recommend trading eth between highs of 750 ish and lows in the mid 600s for this coming days to maximize gains?

nice

>Futures do not affect the price of bitcoin
We both know that isn't strictly true buddy. You certainly would not be saying that on futures expiry day.

My impression is this market is like wall st in the early 2000s, insider trading and market manipulation as standard. I wouldn't risk my own capital in crypto futures unless I had an information edge or a pet whale to move the market.

How long before this house of cards falls down? My guess is Q2 2018. There will be law suits and criminal charges.

Yeah, basically, 630-730 if you wanted to be super safe, but meh it's crypto. if a 4hour candle closes out of the range, then into the new range.

Not to be rude but holy shit Im amazed you risk money in this market without following that.
BCH is Bitcoin Cash, a fork. That means there are 2 large Bitcoin currencies right now. (other small forks are largely irrelevant)

A substantial amount of the Bitcoin community has split off to support BCH. Many of them early adopters. The disagreement is about various design choices of Bitcoin Core, which are the developers of the dominating node software in legacy bitcoin.
The transaction fees of 30-50$ Bitcoin has right now are due to these design choices. (Core has solutions lined up but they are at least 1 year+ out)
Bitcoin cash (BCH) aims to keep their network fast and cheap to use by using another scaling mechanism than Bitcoin (BTC).

Since BTC is becoming unusable in ecommerce BCH has been gaining support and they made an impressive Bullrun from 300 to 2600 right now. 4100 at top. Thats more than BTCs ATH until just a few months ago.

BCH uses the same hashing algorithm as BTC. Miners can decide which coin to mine at any time. If BCH becomes more profitable to mine than BTC and large amounts of miners switch to BCH that could bring Bitcoin to a halt due to the DAA.

There is a very real risk the Bitcoin you trade futures on may be not just hard to use but completely unusable (as in no transactions going through at all for hours) some time in the near future. Insane panic selling would ensue.
Besides That tech risk there is also the very real risk of Bcash (BCH) taking over the #1 marketcap spot soon since merchants are adopting BCH over BTC right now since BTC is unusable for any type of commerce already.

Personally im all in fiat right now for the first time in 5 years as I watch this play out.

PS: The biggest Miner on earth, Bitmain, is a strong supporter of BCH. They could create the situation I described above on a whim if they wanted to. They likely are just holding off for now as to not be seen as the destroyers of bitcoin

I'd rather use ltc or xmr for transactions, bch is just btc (dinosaur) but more centralised and owned by miners. If btc is a shit coin, bch is a worse coin, why use either if they're so obviously cucked?

Thanks for the info, it's interesting.

I made a mistake by not clarifying that I don't touch crypto. I exclusively trade oil futures at a prop firm in Chicago WTI/Brent.

Isn't there some sort of fatal conspiracy around BCH at the moment?

Im not arguing for any coin here. If a btc miner exodus happens you dont want to be in any coin when it happens.
I made insane gains and am preserving themuntil I can get a feel for how it turns out. What you think a shitcoin is diesnt matter all that much since BCH has the majority of big bitcoin businesses behind it

Oh ok I thought youre trading bitcoin futures.

pumping soon discord.gg/qJns5cd

You have to understand that there is a large proportion of people in crypto (this goes for "whales" too) who couldn't give less of a damn about crypto, and likely think it's a fucking stupid idea. They are here for the money and movements in price. Their knowledge will be shallow at best, not to say I'm some know it all, but I appreciate the reality of the situation.

>some sort of fatal conspiracy
it's not so much of a conspiracy than an open hissy fit. Both sides are full of faggots. Everyone else is fucking bored and wants to move on already. Without those two mongs. And none of them will prevail. Bitcoin and its retarded little brother will both crash and burn. The only question is which coin(s) will step up in the ranks. Plenty of strong contender. Technically much stronger than bitcoin ever could be. And much more agile too.
The problem is that still too much faggots are attached to bitcoins, hence a value other than 0. For now.

We can only hope they have their final death match after altcoins have decoupled from them and there are more pairs.

Any good books or websites you'd reccommend to get better at this stuff?

Big bitcoin business exists because the community tolerates them, the community doesn't need big crypto corporates and miners to function.

I'd personally be happy with dogecoin, chan coin and peer coin. Fuck wall st, fuck the banks, fuck real estate prices, fuck consumer index's, fuck wage growth, fuck outlooks, fuck employment numbers, fuck welfare, fuck banks.

Whatever upsets the establishment and hurts their profits is absolutely 10/10 AAA+++^n grade invustmunt gold. Seriously, if all of the Chinese btc miners went broke and all of the exchange owners lost everything I'd start fapping uncontrollably.

I'm all in on bazingacoin, chan coin and doge. I want Jamie to establish a yearly doge coin summit called 'srs bsnsns' so I can roll up in a toga and piss in the punch bowl.

still Bitcoin cash basically is their petproject. And BCH diesnt say blocksize is the only way to scale, just that it should be the way to scale for now

The CEO of the biggest miner on Earth is also heavily invested in Rootstock

Any tips how to get started? What coins should i buy gor hodling?

still Bitcoin cash basically is their petproject. And BCH diesnt say blocksize is the only way to scale, just that it should be the way to scale for now

Nice deleting of comment. Did some googling? I wouldnt have been surprised if they were invested in LN. They have infinite money and can fund all sides if they want.

Good analysis, you will know when it's the right time and place to invest.

>What coins should i buy gor hodling?
If you seriously want valuable tips, read the entire thread you retard.

Yah, thought I heard some people on Whalepool TS say he was invested in LN as well. Turns out he isn't. But then again, they said he's invested in basically every blockchain business out there, but I imagine any investment in LN on his part would be hush-hush.

I don't think much of BCH beyond it being a way for Jihan to maximize his profit in the short-term. Of course, the idea of a flippening from BCH to BTC is possible, but it doesn't strike me as imminent.

BCH is morte profitable to mine right now: coinwarz.com/miningprofitability/sha-256

If it stays that way for long periods of time and BCH gets even more credibility, the risk of exodus increases.

Even though BTC is heavily centralized, it wouldn't go belly-up if Bitmain were compromised (which is the only outcome of BCH being centralized). Furthermore, improvements to the Bitcoin protocol are inevitable, in my opinion; We're not so far away from RSK and also not so far away from the deployment of side-chains and LN.

it's only a question of time. Not much time, if you ask me, because governments and business all around the globe took the bait and want to implement smart contracts, electronic currency (in many countries since years, with many fragmented attempts), and they want to get rid of physical cash, and monitor each and every step you do, etc. etc..
The time for crypto has come. And nothing is going to stop it. Not even bitcoin. For all I care it can even remain to be a silly retarded "store of retardeness". Nobody gives a fuck.

Also important to keep an eye on taxation. Changes may now occur where you now get taxed on gains you've made while holding one coin, once you exchange to another coin. Taxes may no longer be deferred to when you cash out from Bitcoin.

I believe the drop in Bitcoin we're seeing now, and the trading range bitcoin is currently in, is due to a combination of BCH's pump (leading to miners potentially looking to switch over if it maintains a price which allows for profitable mining at a given Difficulty) and the changing US tax situation (which impact all of crypto).

Thanks for making these threads btw, OP. They're good.

Anyone else had the misfortune to listen that prick by the name of 'Lambo' on Live BITCOIN Trading youtube channel... a right bellend

what did he say?

No problem. I think I learned more from this thread than vice versa.

Do you think I would make myself at a disadvantage and it much harder on myself to get allocations as an emerging from something like family offices or seeders if I form a structure in some jurisdictions like Malta?

Hey OP, thanks for the thread. A rare gem in a sea of shit.

What is the best and fastest way to learn tech analysis stuff? was planning to make some application in IB to work one year between bachelor and master and was thinking about learning TA both for crypto and as an added value