Can someone help me figure out some math for an X-wing game?
I'm flying
2x Crack+HLC Rhos
VI Standard Vader
I'm wondering if I get into a r3 engage with Lowhrick (Draw Their Fire), Standard missile+TLT+Bomblet Miranda, and Biggs, who I should go for first.
I know conventional wisdom would be to go for Miranda, as if I can drop her, the game is over (Biggs and Lowhrick can't beat vader, and those gunboats can outmaneuver both)
The issue is that 9 health, Lowhrick's evade, and Draw Their Fire mean she will probably survive
Even then, say Vader pulls a HHC attack on his first shot, which is only a 56% chance (37% chance of 2 damage results. If miranda blanks, that's only 1 damage after Lowhrick and DTF.
This specific scenario is a 35% chance.
Then I would need to get the 77.24% chance both times of 4 with HLC and not get any crits. (crack shot negates her 1 dice)- That's only a 20% chance of this exchange occuring, and that's assuming HLC means no crits.
More likely, my expected damage outputs are
1.148 from Vader
3.54x2 from each Gunboat (I can get crits, although unlikely)
(Bonus 1.44 missing DTF shields onto Lowhrick)
Negative 1 damage from Lowhrick (unless he fucks up badly and spends it on a Gunboat when miranda didn't get a natural evade).
That's a typical result of 7 damage, which means that Miranda is still unfortunately alive and will probably have 4 health by the time the gunboats can shoot her again (biggs next round, etc) Hell, if vader did damage, she could TLT and Regen instead of missile-firing. On the other hand, if she is a retard and pumps the missile, I could very likely kill her that round.
The next option is going after Lowhrick, but I'm unsure if killing him is a good idea- Miranda could be a serious problem for Vader in a 1v1, and I'm not sure I could win that. On the other hand, if I can drop Lowhrick, my gunboats can 2-round her fairly easily.
cont.-